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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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bobby623's avatar - abstract
San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
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Posted: August 2, 2015, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

IMHO, the best way to learn what random is where lotteries are concerned is to view a few actual drawings.
Take Mega Millions, for example.
I wish someone would explain how anyone or instrument can watch 75 dumb as dirt balls being manipulated in a single mixing vessel and know
what the final outcome (winning combination) will be.
Sorry, but my brain tells me that it can't be done.
True, there are folks who visit LP, including some regulars, who claim they know how to do it, but the fact that they are here
sort of suggest they are blowing smoke and trying to sell Brooklyn bridges in Arizona.
Unfortunately, some folks are buying them.
Bottom line. Why is it an issue?
Like it or not, it is what it is.
No one has to buy a lottery ticket.
Folks who don't like how the games are played should spend their money on other stuff.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19813 Posts
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    Posted: August 2, 2015, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

    IMHO, the best way to learn what random is where lotteries are concerned is to view a few actual drawings.
    Take Mega Millions, for example.
    I wish someone would explain how anyone or instrument can watch 75 dumb as dirt balls being manipulated in a single mixing vessel and know
    what the final outcome (winning combination) will be.
    Sorry, but my brain tells me that it can't be done.
    True, there are folks who visit LP, including some regulars, who claim they know how to do it, but the fact that they are here
    sort of suggest they are blowing smoke and trying to sell Brooklyn bridges in Arizona.
    Unfortunately, some folks are buying them.
    Bottom line. Why is it an issue?
    Like it or not, it is what it is.
    No one has to buy a lottery ticket.
    Folks who don't like how the games are played should spend their money on other stuff.

    "I wish someone would explain how anyone or instrument can watch 75 dumb as dirt balls being manipulated in a single mixing vessel and know
    what the final outcome (winning combination) will be.
    Sorry, but my brain tells me that it can't be done."

    If your brain tells you it can't be done then you should stop wishing someone would explain how it can be done and move on to things your brain tells you can be done. Bang Head

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
      Texas
      United States
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      October 23, 2007
      5586 Posts
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      Posted: August 2, 2015, 9:00 pm - IP Logged

      IMHO, the best way to learn what random is where lotteries are concerned is to view a few actual drawings.
      Take Mega Millions, for example.
      I wish someone would explain how anyone or instrument can watch 75 dumb as dirt balls being manipulated in a single mixing vessel and know
      what the final outcome (winning combination) will be.
      Sorry, but my brain tells me that it can't be done.
      True, there are folks who visit LP, including some regulars, who claim they know how to do it, but the fact that they are here
      sort of suggest they are blowing smoke and trying to sell Brooklyn bridges in Arizona.
      Unfortunately, some folks are buying them.
      Bottom line. Why is it an issue?
      Like it or not, it is what it is.
      No one has to buy a lottery ticket.
      Folks who don't like how the games are played should spend their money on other stuff.

      Amen bobby.

      I get weary with the a-holes who keep saying PB and MM are rigged.

      Odds of hundreds of millions to one, and they're rigged??? With odds like those, they don't HAVE to rig them. And forget about predicting, except for blind luck, period.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

      A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
        Dallas, Texas
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        Posted: August 2, 2015, 9:59 pm - IP Logged

        True the balls are bouncing around in the box randomly. Some people have tried to explain the trajectory, the heat/cold around the box, the phase of the moon, magnetic effects, the longitude and latitude of where the draws take place, delineage and rotation of the earth. Not sure what half that is, much less if and how much effect it would have on balls in a box.

        As far as luck goes, Gail Howard has made millions selling her SmartLuck programs claiming millions have been won using it.

        Regardless if you call it dumb luck, good luck, or smart luck there are smart ways to play.

        Most of the smart part is knowing the percentages and learning how to use them.

        If I didn't think there was at least a part of could be predicted I wouldn't bother. So when people claim its all random and still try to predict, I wonder if they truly believe it is random or is that like a comfort food?

        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: August 2, 2015, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

          It's probably a mute point but RL said he was working with a 5/39 matrix or smaller where there is a 1:10 chance or better of matching any two numbers naturally.

          Ohio has a 5/39 game Rolling Cash5 and to back test that theory I combined the three most popular combinations of two's into one combination of five to see what would have happened.

          In 3811 drawings:
          15 and 36 appeared 76 times
          04 and 07 appeared 73 times
          36 and 38 appeared 73 times

          The combination 04-07-15-36-38 matched two 453 times, matched three 51 times and matched four 3 times and with Ohio's payouts would have returned $1863 of a $3811 investment or 49¢ on the dollar.

          Since this combination has never matched 5, I may play it for the next ten drawings and future test it.  I'm going to at least post it on the prediction board.

          I played that combination for seven days on the prediction board and for real and until tonight drawing it had hit one number once but tonight it matched 2 for $1 proving the overall odds of 1:8 of matching two in 5/39 game are good.

          That won't show up on the prediction board since winning a dollar playing a 5/39 game isn't given the same importance of winning a dollar playing MM.

          There are still two more plays left on that ticket so it could do even better.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: August 2, 2015, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

            #1 There is no way to accurately predict the winning set.

            #2 Playing smarter will however increase the lower level prizes

                  and maybe land you a JP.

            #3 Winning on a QP = Dumb luck or Divine interaction.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              Avatar

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              Posted: August 2, 2015, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

              There are predictability limits, random or no random.

              It might be easier to tell what might not come out, than what will come out.

              It also has to do with the make-up of the games, take a look at the past draws and you will see what might be possible and what might not.

              But there are so very many possible combinations that maybe nothing will help you to win the jackpot.

              But people don't care, when the jackpot is very high they will buy numbers.

              Even most people with high powered minds won't win jackpots, not everybody can be very good at everything, even those who know a lot about many things.

              In general people might be good at one thing, if at anything at all and even if they are good at one thing, they might not be the best at that particular thing.

              As far as I know, nobody has broken the lotteries yet and who in his or her right mind would want to?

              Once the cow is dead, it can't give milk any more, you eat the meat and once is gone there is no more of it

              -------

              Yes, due to statistical chance, when millions or thousands of combinations are generated and played, sooner or later one or more of them will match the winning number.

              That is what chance or statistical chance is all about, many draws might go buy before somebody wins the big prize.

                bobby623's avatar - abstract
                San Angelo, Texas
                United States
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                Posted: August 2, 2015, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                IMHO #2 - Just about everyone I know is trying to win by analyzing the individual balls and their relationship with other balls, etc.
                But, a closer look at the chaos in the mixing vessel will reveal one undeniable fact - no two balls can be in same place at the same time.
                There is a space, or Gap, as I like to call it, between the balls.
                The size of the gaps between the balls varies with the mixing process, but it always exists.
                If one were to stop or freeze the process, the individual spaces, gaps, can be measured, but, its 'good to know but so what' situation.
                To be useful, one would have to have a way to measure the size of the gaps and develop a method that would interpret the results.
                Doing that 75 times would be impossible, or, not worth the effort.
                However, if one were to reduce  the size of the problem, it could be worthwhile.
                I reduce the problem via substitution and analyzing the gaps between 3 or 4 balls at a time.
                I know there is a gap between the balls but I don't need to know its size.
                The power of substitution comes into play.
                I have a method for computing the gaps.
                True, the method generates a bunch of tracking charts but each one generates trend lines with definite clues on finding good answers to
                the What's Next question.
                Unfortunately, my substitution workout with gap strategy isn't very effective for MM and PB. There are just too many trend lines to analyze.
                It works best with the daily games, Cash 5, Two-Step and Texas Lotto.
                Bottom line, I'm using the gaps to guide my choices.
                No mathematics, no pair analysis, none of the popular but unrewarding filter schemes, no statistical charts, no VTRAC, etc.
                I use the draw history to drive the analysis.
                I don't care how the winning numbers are generated. The fact that there are pre-tests is a non issue.
                The balls are wooden blocks that are arranged, re-arranged and re-rearranged according to specific rules.
                I evaluate the pertinent trend lines and choose digits/numbers to play.
                It's guesswork, but, it works.
                Of course, a User has to have a lot of free time to keep the charts current.
                Fortunately for me, I have lots of free time.
                By the way, my workout  gives me three different methods to choose digits. If one doesn't have any useful clues, I go to the next and on to the third, if necessary.

                  bobby623's avatar - abstract
                  San Angelo, Texas
                  United States
                  Member #1097
                  January 31, 2003
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                  Posted: August 2, 2015, 11:17 pm - IP Logged

                  "I wish someone would explain how anyone or instrument can watch 75 dumb as dirt balls being manipulated in a single mixing vessel and know
                  what the final outcome (winning combination) will be.
                  Sorry, but my brain tells me that it can't be done."

                  If your brain tells you it can't be done then you should stop wishing someone would explain how it can be done and move on to things your brain tells you can be done. Bang Head

                  I have moved on!
                  It's called Substitution Workout with Gap Strategy.
                  Doesn't always work because of conflicting clues, but I'm happy with the results.

                    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                    Dallas, Texas
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                    Posted: August 3, 2015, 12:34 am - IP Logged

                    I have moved on!
                    It's called Substitution Workout with Gap Strategy.
                    Doesn't always work because of conflicting clues, but I'm happy with the results.

                    Yep. No matter what method you use, there is always things that point in other directions.

                    Or you see something new that makes you ask, "How did I miss that?"

                    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: August 3, 2015, 1:45 am - IP Logged

                      So let's not make argument, k?

                      Lets' make it a discussion.

                      What is random to you?

                      Of course, the more I look, the more I see some validity to the argument pretest affect the live draw. But a person would have to take the time to check all the pretests against all the predictions made over the course of several months to a year to have a chance at defending or disputing that plausible argument. 

                      What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't.

                      Getting over the stigma that something is impossible is half the battle.

                      Last night's 2Step 6, 12, 16,17 BB 1

                      Bummer. Sticking to the front digit pattern 0123 is costly. It hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet it is the top hitter.

                      "What is random to you?"

                      Where each outcome has an equal chance. Unlike the questionable terminal QP distribution where multiple tickets with the same five numbers could result in a state lottery losing millions of dollars. I'm not presenting a "conspiracy theory, just saying it makes more sense not to take the risk.

                      I've matched 5 out of 6 by wheeling every number in a matrix using each number at least once and did that several times in pick-3 games. A ten line pick-3 wheel using each digit in each digit position guarantees matching all three of the drawn digits. Getting all three on the same line is the obvious problem, put the good news is pre drawing tests have no effect.

                      "What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't."

                      By using all the numbers, how random drawings are becomes irrelevant, but with 75 numbers, 15 lines is the minimum play. I'll probably "win" a buck, but spending $30 a week with a 18 million to 1 chance $1 million is IMO a terrible bet.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: August 3, 2015, 10:38 am - IP Logged

                        I have moved on!
                        It's called Substitution Workout with Gap Strategy.
                        Doesn't always work because of conflicting clues, but I'm happy with the results.

                        Same with me, I accept random is unpredictable but that's no reason to not try predicting the results of the next drawing using information about previous drawings. 

                        I can do no worst than QP's plus I can avoid duplicates and repeats which seldom happens in the games I play.  Besides I play jackpot games where being right once is a life time is good enough.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                          Dallas, Texas
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                          Posted: August 3, 2015, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                          "What is random to you?"

                          Where each outcome has an equal chance. Unlike the questionable terminal QP distribution where multiple tickets with the same five numbers could result in a state lottery losing millions of dollars. I'm not presenting a "conspiracy theory, just saying it makes more sense not to take the risk.

                          I've matched 5 out of 6 by wheeling every number in a matrix using each number at least once and did that several times in pick-3 games. A ten line pick-3 wheel using each digit in each digit position guarantees matching all three of the drawn digits. Getting all three on the same line is the obvious problem, put the good news is pre drawing tests have no effect.

                          "What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't."

                          By using all the numbers, how random drawings are becomes irrelevant, but with 75 numbers, 15 lines is the minimum play. I'll probably "win" a buck, but spending $30 a week with a 18 million to 1 chance $1 million is IMO a terrible bet.

                          Pick3 and Pick4 are the only lotteries that meet the criteria of "each outcome has an equal chance." Each draw is one number out of a possible 0 - 9 complete ball set (1 in 10 of any number from any individual set.) 

                          However, the three numbers that result from the drawings produce combinations that have different odds. 3 of the same digit only has 10 possibles; two of the same has 270 possibles; 3 different digits have 720 possibles.

                          Why does pulling one number from three complete 0 - 9 ball sets produce the same percentages as had we pulled one ball from a set numbered 000 - 999?

                          With "an equal chance," shouldn't we see 1/3 singles, 1/3 doubles, and 1/3 triples? Still, no matter how many time we do these drawing using one number from three sets of balls numbered 0 - 9, we come up with 72/27/1.

                          I know we've had the conversation before about the short set jackpot games. In any game where the matrix ends in an odd number, the odds favor the first number pulled to being an odd number.

                          The same is true comparing the low back digit set (1-5) to the high digit set (6-0).

                          In a 5/39 game, where 5 numbers is pulled from one set, there are 20 odd numbers and 19 even numbers at the start. In the same game there are 20 numbers ending in 1- 5 and 19 ending with 6-0.

                          So at the start of the game, odd numbers have a slight advantage. At the start of the game, numbers ending in 1 - 5 have a slight advantage.

                          One step further. Since numbers ending in 1,3, and 5 produce 12 possible hits, versus 8 possible hits for numbers ending in 2 and 4, low odd numbers have the best chance of being the first drawn.

                          Suddenly, is it possible for each outcome to have an equal chance when the possibilities are unequal before the start?

                          My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            Posted: August 3, 2015, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

                            Concerning lotteries , I can't recall exactly but it might have been Gail Howard who said  "What happens most is most likely to happen again" and many predictors including myself base their predictions on that theory which seem to go against the definition or random .

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
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                              March 13, 2008
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                              Posted: August 3, 2015, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

                              "What is random to you?"

                              Where each outcome has an equal chance. Unlike the questionable terminal QP distribution where multiple tickets with the same five numbers could result in a state lottery losing millions of dollars. I'm not presenting a "conspiracy theory, just saying it makes more sense not to take the risk.

                              I've matched 5 out of 6 by wheeling every number in a matrix using each number at least once and did that several times in pick-3 games. A ten line pick-3 wheel using each digit in each digit position guarantees matching all three of the drawn digits. Getting all three on the same line is the obvious problem, put the good news is pre drawing tests have no effect.

                              "What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't."

                              By using all the numbers, how random drawings are becomes irrelevant, but with 75 numbers, 15 lines is the minimum play. I'll probably "win" a buck, but spending $30 a week with a 18 million to 1 chance $1 million is IMO a terrible bet.

                              Stack

                              Ill give it a shot.  To me random as pertaining to the lottery is restricted to the order the numbers are drawn.

                              This is the only random element of a lottery.  The numbers are not random, just the order they are drawn.

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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