Quick Links You last visited January 23, 2017, 9:37 am All times shown are Eastern Time (GMT5:00)  How Random is Random?United States Member #132100 August 26, 2012 1108 Posts Offline  Posted: July 27, 2015, 9:05 pm  IP Logged  
Thanks Gary. I'll study your suggestion and see how it goes. The game has over 5000 draw history so there is enough data to code and back test any idea one might have. I think you might be comparing it to the games you have in the States, but it's quite different actually. It's a 5/90 game but almost nobody bets on five numbers. Most folks select and bet on two numbers. So it's more like a 2/90 game. There are 4005 twonumber combinations from the 90. If you are sure of your two numbers, you go and sell the farm and bet it all on those two numbers!! The payoff is 200 times whatever you bet. Well, then the chance might be 1/4005, no wonder that it pays X 200.   
Dallas, Texas United States Member #4549 May 2, 2004 1847 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:25 am  IP Logged  
Well, then the chance might be 1/4005, no wonder that it pays X 200. Gotta be more to it than that. 90 times 89 = 8010. If it doesn't matter which order the pair falls, then you have 1/4005 for one pair. But If 1/90 pays $200, then they might as well shut that lottery down now. I spend $90 to play 90 numbers (one each in the first position). I win $200. I spend $180. Win $400. I spend $270. Win $600. I spend $360. Win $800. I spend $480. Win $1000. So far I've spent $1080 (all lottery money). I've won $3000. This time I spend $20 a number. Cost $1800 (of the lottery money). I win $4000. I double that bet. $3600. Win $8000. A couple of more bets, I'm now playing $100 a number, ($9000 total) to win $20000. There is no way to lose as long as I keep putting each of the 90 numbers in the first position At $1 a play I spend $90 with a guaranteed win of $200. Lottery officials begin begging you to quit playing. Soon the government is asking for loans. There is more to this game than we know or understand. My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"   
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Ghana Member #134837 November 8, 2012 9 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 3:49 am  IP Logged  
Gotta be more to it than that. 90 times 89 = 8010. If it doesn't matter which order the pair falls, then you have 1/4005 for one pair. But If 1/90 pays $200, then they might as well shut that lottery down now. I spend $90 to play 90 numbers (one each in the first position). I win $200. I spend $180. Win $400. I spend $270. Win $600. I spend $360. Win $800. I spend $480. Win $1000. So far I've spent $1080 (all lottery money). I've won $3000. This time I spend $20 a number. Cost $1800 (of the lottery money). I win $4000. I double that bet. $3600. Win $8000. A couple of more bets, I'm now playing $100 a number, ($9000 total) to win $20000. There is no way to lose as long as I keep putting each of the 90 numbers in the first position At $1 a play I spend $90 with a guaranteed win of $200. Lottery officials begin begging you to quit playing. Soon the government is asking for loans. There is more to this game than we know or understand. Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad. If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there. For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount. Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily. I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games. I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter. We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws. I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified Tlex that sees it as a 2/90 game).   
midOhio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19903 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 9:01 am  IP Logged  
Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad. If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there. For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount. Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily. I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games. I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter. We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws. I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified Tlex that sees it as a 2/90 game). "I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter." Even if RL had such a tool he was probably talking about a game with an American format like a 5/39 game where the odds of matching 2 are 1:10 naturally. Sounds like matching 2 in your game would have to be a lot harder than that. Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners? * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *
  
United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 4093 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 11:21 am  IP Logged  
I found the program and here is a picture. I had to build a database to get it to run but what it does is search every pair of numbers from the previous draw. There are 10 pairs in a 5number draw set and after moving through the 10 pairs it would rate the numbers from best to worst. The rating was calculated by using the numbers of hits vs the current games out. At least one number would come from the top hitters. The program was built when my pick5 game was a 530 and it's limited to a 540. RL   
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Ghana Member #134837 November 8, 2012 9 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 12:58 pm  IP Logged  
"Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners?" Ya, RJOh. But apparently I'm not allowed to post a link here.   
Dallas, Texas United States Member #4549 May 2, 2004 1847 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:28 pm  IP Logged  
Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad. If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there. For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount. Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily. I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games. I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter. We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws. I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified Tlex that sees it as a 2/90 game). Thanks for the explanation. It's all good. When I started looking at the numbers I needed the additional info since the 1 in 90 for $200 total wasn't adding up. Spending $90 to win $36. Bad idea. LMAO Happy to get that cleared up. Thanks! My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"   
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Ghana Member #134837 November 8, 2012 9 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:33 pm  IP Logged  
I found the program and here is a picture. I had to build a database to get it to run but what it does is search every pair of numbers from the previous draw. There are 10 pairs in a 5number draw set and after moving through the 10 pairs it would rate the numbers from best to worst. The rating was calculated by using the numbers of hits vs the current games out. At least one number would come from the top hitters. The program was built when my pick5 game was a 530 and it's limited to a 540. RL Great, RL. I'm trying to understand the screen and the business logic so please bear with me. So we take the 10 pairs from the current draw and search for the number of times they've hit. Is this over the entire draw history or over a certain number of draws? We also compute the current games out for each of those 10 pairs. Now, what is the formula for calculating the rating using the number of hits vs the current games out? Once we have the ratings, which ones are considered the top hitters from which you said: "At least one number would come from the top hitters."? Thanks for your patience.   
Dallas, Texas United States Member #4549 May 2, 2004 1847 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 2:18 pm  IP Logged  
Great, RL. I'm trying to understand the screen and the business logic so please bear with me. So we take the 10 pairs from the current draw and search for the number of times they've hit. Is this over the entire draw history or over a certain number of draws? We also compute the current games out for each of those 10 pairs. Now, what is the formula for calculating the rating using the number of hits vs the current games out? Once we have the ratings, which ones are considered the top hitters from which you said: "At least one number would come from the top hitters."? Thanks for your patience. Suggestion: Upload the results you have to a hosting site like Box and post the link. My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"   
midOhio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19903 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 3:59 pm  IP Logged  
"Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners?" Ya, RJOh. But apparently I'm not allowed to post a link here. Thanks for the response, I did a web search and found other countries along with your country have 5/90 games. Interesting, maybe the smaller matrixs weren't challenging enough. * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *
  
Dallas, Texas United States Member #4549 May 2, 2004 1847 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 6:55 pm  IP Logged  
Thanks for the response, I did a web search and found other countries along with your country have 5/90 games. Interesting, maybe the smaller matrixs weren't challenging enough. RJOH, apparently this game is big business in Ghana. There are at least a couple of Facebook pages dedicated to predicting the outcome. Several articles talk about the professional predictors, people who make a living predicting the outcome. As you mention there are several 5/90s, and at least one is a jackpot game with the current pot at $246,000. Haven't found any past results for any of them. Same question about a banker number has been asked in many places. In the Narialand forum a poster identified as the GamblingQueen has been posting her predictions since Feb,2013! Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help. Thanks, G My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"   
United States Member #116344 September 8, 2011 3941 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 7:02 pm  IP Logged  
It's a 5/90 game. There's really no jackpot per se. The prize structure is multiples of what you bet. You can bet on anything from two to all the five numbers. For example, you can bet $1 on two numbers. If your two numbers are among the five drawn, you'll be paid $200. Three, four and five correct numbers pay higher multiples of your bet amount. Actually, you can even bet on one number, but it has to be the first number drawn to win. So, back to RL's point. If you could pin down one number correctly in say one out of every five games, you'd ahead. Even once out of every seven games is ok. But pinning down one number that often is quite elusive. This is a matrix 5/90 of italian lotto where the en was derived, basically the enalotto is equivalent to mega or powerball. The prize tag of 5/90 lotto is fixed, your betting amount is proportional to your prize. In Italy,5/90 is played in 10 States, and is very easy to win considerable sum. With matrix like this, probability is out of the equation(odds is just nuts!) is about finding a method to subset a section or finding a group within a certain time frame. I won 425 million lire(Equivalent of $250,000) years ago during my residency in that country by betting and guessing 778986 for 10 mille lira (10 x 425). I played ' TERNO SECCO', meaning 3 numbers. I could have wage 5 numbers and my prize will be 10 x 425/10(42millions), because you do have 10 triads in 5C_{3 } . Lets say I suspect 778886 hitting in one of the States, I can play only the triads (terno secco) for all the States, but my prize tag is 1/10 of bet amount (425/10 States), 5C_{3 } for 10 States will be less(4.25 million) due to 10 triads(425/10 States x10 triads). I used to wage 6C_{4} (15 combos) targeting only 4C_{3}(4 triads), in this case, a triad will win 425/4. Prize tag 2/5 pays 250x bet amount 3/5 pays 425x bet amount 4/5 pays 80,000 bet amount 5/5 pays a million x bet amount With the new currency (euro), this is the bet/prize tag chart in gross(calcolo Lordo) for unique State(sola routa) Ambata> guess one number, Ambo>pair, Terno>three , quarteno> quad, Cinquina>5 numbers see the prize goes with 5C_{1} to 5C_{5} , the matrix 5/90 is a different story. Supposing I wage 3C_{2} opting for only pair(ambo) to win, then my prize will be 250/3 (83.33),you have 3 pairs in a triad, so my 4C_{3 } will pay 1125.00 euro x bet amount(450,00/4). This game is played in MALTA, GHANA,ITALY and folks like it very much due to the prize structure. NB>I suggest you try NONPARAMETRIC Sampling for data inference (Probability for normal distribution for whatever parameter is nonfactor). Prontuario delle vincite al Lotto Tabella di calcolo Lordo per una sola ruota Num. giocati  ambata  estr. det.  ambo  terno  quaterna  cinquina 

1  11,232  55,00         

2  5,61  27,50  250,00       

3  3,74  18,33  83,33  4500,00     

4  2,80  13,75  41,66  1125,00  120.000,00   

5  2,24  11,00  25,00  450,00  24.000,00  6.000.000,00 

6  1,87  9,16  16,66  225,00  8.000,00  1.000.000,00 

7  1,60  7,85  11,90  128,57  3.428,57  285.714,28 

8  1,40  6,87  8,92  80,35  1.714,28  107.142,85 

9  1,24  6,11  6,94  53,57  952,38  47.619,04 

10  1,12  5,50  5,55  37,50  571,42  23.809,52 

See the last 10 draws(Estrazione) for all the 10 states 28/07/15 ari  64  4  25  41  3  Cagliari  63  33  41  35  57  Firenze  61  66  43  1  80  Genova  15  78  12  82  41  Milano  65  4  86  19  6  Napoli  45  82  25  29  62  Palermo  2  17  77  83  82  Roma  21  81  6  64  63  Torino  76  64  77  62  90  Venezia  69  10  2  3  37  Nazionale  76  37  77  82  16 
Estrazione n. 89del 25/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  58  46  41  40  39  Cagliari  88  35  57  28  65  Firenze  61  26  4  56  43  Genova  35  64  88  28  74  Milano  58  78  59  66  25  Napoli  85  22  30  50  40  Palermo  73  69  90  63  75  Roma  31  77  71  68  80  Torino  39  74  46  30  82  Venezia  81  27  72  78  71  Nazionale  75  56  64  72  30 
Estrazione n. 88del 23/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  2  86  8  84  5  Cagliari  55  22  20  13  51  Firenze  87  41  82  73  35  Genova  14  65  33  35  26  Milano  61  86  57  79  8  Napoli  49  42  33  75  44  Palermo  81  31  10  75  40  Roma  84  72  44  78  36  Torino  75  19  58  35  3  Venezia  28  14  85  26  44  Nazionale  26  13  38  84  40 
Estrazione n. 87del 21/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  61  65  46  51  57  Cagliari  41  74  88  79  14  Firenze  34  39  85  45  68  Genova  60  59  6  1  61  Milano  51  55  18  39  17  Napoli  14  71  57  55  9  Palermo  81  60  19  30  48  Roma  8  42  84  17  72  Torino  68  82  9  46  71  Venezia  60  3  61  44  69  Nazionale  41  48  22  37  44 
Estrazione n. 86del 18/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  3  25  41  31  11  Cagliari  44  6  89  28  88  Firenze  52  56  87  37  75  Genova  70  58  33  68  27  Milano  67  87  26  49  73  Napoli  55  38  29  24  34  Palermo  60  40  64  67  15  Roma  52  38  30  3  63  Torino  51  39  71  81  3  Venezia  14  50  9  22  54  Nazionale  48  33  78  86  43 
Estrazione n. 85del 16/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  80  89  6  46  60  Cagliari  31  57  89  43  24  Firenze  58  77  10  74  54  Genova  7  86  15  71  4  Milano  29  54  22  61  75  Napoli  45  32  43  58  27  Palermo  78  89  67  6  82  Roma  30  13  42  37  26  Torino  69  53  70  34  55  Venezia  89  26  73  54  13  Nazionale  35  67  19  29  73 
Estrazione n. 84del 14/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  33  6  82  67  38  Cagliari  77  20  11  69  58  Firenze  85  10  9  90  75  Genova  38  85  54  4  7  Milano  76  86  15  44  63  Napoli  76  78  27  52  9  Palermo  33  79  3  89  4  Roma  23  57  45  55  5  Torino  57  45  19  66  29  Venezia  26  78  77  55  67  Nazionale  18  2  74  46  8 
Estrazione n. 83del 11/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  13  75  45  77  57  Cagliari  18  57  85  59  27  Firenze  35  88  11  49  54  Genova  46  17  22  44  38  Milano  70  54  64  2  25  Napoli  58  73  89  10  6  Palermo  46  41  37  18  9  Roma  6  4  84  48  9  Torino  62  23  11  21  52  Venezia  41  50  6  18  74  Nazionale  63  66  89  7  82 
Estrazione n. 82del 09/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  87  21  12  29  1  Cagliari  10  73  25  80  34  Firenze  35  31  24  19  18  Genova  49  20  25  31  10  Milano  73  56  90  6  65  Napoli  80  17  53  54  84  Palermo  52  88  80  20  51  Roma  41  20  80  89  55  Torino  11  30  82  73  64  Venezia  12  65  38  15  68  Nazionale  27  29  68  66  84 
Estrazione n. 81del 07/07/2015 RUOTA  1^{o} estr.  2^{o} estr.  3^{o} estr.  4^{o} estr.  5^{o} estr. 

Bari  25  60  75  43  18  Cagliari  64  37  66  2  46  Firenze  66  63  76  85  41  Genova  11  43  36  63  44  Milano  33  90  64  25  72  Napoli  15  38  75  5  48  Palermo  38  66  47  16  12  Roma  32  56  22  4  72  Torino  37  42  76  68  31  Venezia  84  88  9  78  12  Nazionale  80  55  76  71  40 
  
United States Member #59354 March 13, 2008 4093 Posts Offline  Posted: July 28, 2015, 7:13 pm  IP Logged  
CobbyCoker The pair being searched is shown at the very top along with the total number of hits. The green bracketed numbers are the actual numbers in the pool. The next value under hits shows the number of times that number showed in the next drawing after the pair being searched hit. The next value "dark blue is the average skips between hits. The entire history is used in the search but only the pair groupings are counted. The program searches until it finds both numbers within the same line then records the numbers that hit in the next drawing. If you look at the number 20, lower left you will see that after the pair 23/25 hit. Number 20 showed in the next drawing 9 times Number 20's average is 1 in 4.1 games Number 20's L/D = Last drawn is 7 games out then before that it was 6 games out then 1 etc.... These values represent the next draw after 23/25 were in the same line/set in history which can be confusing if you don't know how they are calculated. IMHO the number 20 looks very good to hit in the next game but this is based only on one pairing 23/25. It has the most shows after a 23/25 hit and is also at it's max skips given the history of the game. The database used here is not up to date so any fellow show me cash players should not use this for tonight's drawing. The top 5 for each pair being searched is recorded to a text file which is displayed when all 10 searches are finished. The rest is done by hand comparing the L/D= "LastDrawn" and the total hits. Many times one or more numbers from the top 5 overall will show in the next game. Many times the same value will show good with different pairs so the overall can look very good. When using all 10 pairs many times the same numbers will show strong. It's also possible that it may show strong for one pair and bad for all the others. It takes a few hand workouts to dig out the best numbers to play. The wife always seemed to provide me with one or two numbers that would show in the next drawing. Very simple. RL   
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Ghana Member #134837 November 8, 2012 9 Posts Offline  Posted: July 29, 2015, 1:38 am  IP Logged  
Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help. Gary, this is still a discussion on topic about how random is random. Forget about the specifics of the game I play. Many people study the results of many different games. The question I'm really asking is whether anybody has a scheme for accurately pinning down one number in a set of 'randomly' generated numbers once in a while. Can you do it with a 5/24 matrix? 6/49? The matrix is irrelevant. If you can pin down a number or two often, then the answer to you question is that maybe random isn't so random after all.   
midOhio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19903 Posts Offline  Posted: July 29, 2015, 1:27 pm  IP Logged  
Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help. Gary, this is still a discussion on topic about how random is random. Forget about the specifics of the game I play. Many people study the results of many different games. The question I'm really asking is whether anybody has a scheme for accurately pinning down one number in a set of 'randomly' generated numbers once in a while. Can you do it with a 5/24 matrix? 6/49? The matrix is irrelevant. If you can pin down a number or two often, then the answer to you question is that maybe random isn't so random after all. It's probably a mute point but RL said he was working with a 5/39 matrix or smaller where there is a 1:10 chance or better of matching any two numbers naturally. Ohio has a 5/39 game Rolling Cash5 and to back test that theory I combined the three most popular combinations of two's into one combination of five to see what would have happened. In 3811 drawings: 15 and 36 appeared 76 times 04 and 07 appeared 73 times 36 and 38 appeared 73 times The combination 0407153638 matched two 453 times, matched three 51 times and matched four 3 times and with Ohio's payouts would have returned $1863 of a $3811 investment or 49¢ on the dollar. Since this combination has never matched 5, I may play it for the next ten drawings and future test it. I'm going to at least post it on the prediction board. * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *
  
