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# How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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United States
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August 26, 2012
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 Posted: July 27, 2015, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

Thanks Gary. I'll study your suggestion and see how it goes. The game has over 5000 draw history so there is enough data to code and back test any idea one might have.

I think you might be comparing it to the games you have in the States, but it's quite different actually. It's a 5/90 game but almost nobody bets on five numbers. Most folks select and bet on two numbers. So it's more like a 2/90 game. There are 4005 two-number combinations from the 90. If you are sure of your two numbers, you go and sell the farm and bet it all on those two numbers!! The payoff is 200 times whatever you bet.

Well, then the chance might be 1/4005, no wonder that it pays X 200.

I AM GONE, FOR A WHILE.

Dallas, Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:25 am - IP Logged

Well, then the chance might be 1/4005, no wonder that it pays X 200.

Gotta be more to it than that. 90 times 89 = 8010. If it doesn't matter which order the pair falls, then you have 1/4005 for one pair.

But If 1/90 pays \$200, then they might as well shut that lottery down now.

I spend \$90 to play 90 numbers (one each in the first position). I win \$200.

I spend \$180. Win \$400.

I spend \$270. Win \$600.

I spend \$360. Win \$800.

I spend \$480. Win \$1000.

So far I've spent \$1080 (all lottery money). I've won \$3000.

This time I spend \$20 a number. Cost \$1800 (of the lottery money).

I win \$4000.

I double that bet. \$3600. Win \$8000.

A couple of more bets, I'm now playing \$100 a number, (\$9000 total) to win \$20000.

There is no way to lose as long as I keep putting each of the 90 numbers in the first position At \$1 a play I spend \$90 with a guaranteed win of \$200.

Lottery officials begin begging you to quit playing. Soon the government is asking for loans.

There is more to this game than we know or understand.

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

New Member

Ghana
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November 8, 2012
9 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 3:49 am - IP Logged

Gotta be more to it than that. 90 times 89 = 8010. If it doesn't matter which order the pair falls, then you have 1/4005 for one pair.

But If 1/90 pays \$200, then they might as well shut that lottery down now.

I spend \$90 to play 90 numbers (one each in the first position). I win \$200.

I spend \$180. Win \$400.

I spend \$270. Win \$600.

I spend \$360. Win \$800.

I spend \$480. Win \$1000.

So far I've spent \$1080 (all lottery money). I've won \$3000.

This time I spend \$20 a number. Cost \$1800 (of the lottery money).

I win \$4000.

I double that bet. \$3600. Win \$8000.

A couple of more bets, I'm now playing \$100 a number, (\$9000 total) to win \$20000.

There is no way to lose as long as I keep putting each of the 90 numbers in the first position At \$1 a play I spend \$90 with a guaranteed win of \$200.

Lottery officials begin begging you to quit playing. Soon the government is asking for loans.

There is more to this game than we know or understand.

Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad.

If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there.

For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount.

Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily.

I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games.  I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter.

We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws.  I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified T-lex that sees it as a 2/90 game).

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19903 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 9:01 am - IP Logged

Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad.

If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there.

For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount.

Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily.

I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games.  I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter.

We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws.  I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified T-lex that sees it as a 2/90 game).

"I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter."

Even if RL had such a tool he was probably talking about a game with an American format like a 5/39 game where the odds of matching 2 are 1:10 naturally.  Sounds like matching 2 in your game would have to be a lot harder than that.

Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners?

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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March 13, 2008
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 11:21 am - IP Logged

I found the program and here is a picture.  I had to build a database to get it to run but what it does

is search every pair of numbers from the previous draw.  There are 10 pairs in a 5-number draw set

and after moving through the 10 pairs it would rate the numbers from best to worst.  The rating was

calculated by using the numbers of hits vs the current games out.  At least one number would come

from the top hitters.  The program was built when my pick-5 game was a 5-30 and it's limited to a

5-40.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

New Member

Ghana
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November 8, 2012
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

"Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners?"

Ya, RJOh. But apparently I'm not allowed to post a link here.

Dallas, Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
1847 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

Hmmm Gary, you wish!! Maybe I didn't explain things well. My bad.

If you bet on one number and that number is the first to be drawn, the pay off is 36 times your stake amount. So your scheme fails right there.

For two numbers (the order does not matter) the payoff is 200 times the bet amount. For 3 numbers it is 1700 times the bet amount. Four numbers pay 4,445 times and 5 numbers pay 35,500 times the bet amount.

Yes, If it was as easy as you thought, the game would have folded up long ago. It has been in continuous existence since 1962 and is drawn daily.

I know most of you are only interested in the stateside games.  I only mentioned the game here when RL said he previously had a tool that could pin down a couple of numbers once in a while. If you could pin down one number in every five, six or even seven draws, that would be another matter.

We all know predictions based on normal statistics (hot/cold etc) won't pin down a number accurately once every five draws.  I've coded and back tested all kinds of schemes and algorithms (including a modified T-lex that sees it as a 2/90 game).

Thanks for the explanation. It's all good. When I started looking at the numbers I needed the additional info since the 1 in 90 for \$200 total wasn't adding up.

Spending \$90 to win \$36. Bad idea. LMAO

Happy to get that cleared up.

Thanks!

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

New Member

Ghana
Member #134837
November 8, 2012
9 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

I found the program and here is a picture.  I had to build a database to get it to run but what it does

is search every pair of numbers from the previous draw.  There are 10 pairs in a 5-number draw set

and after moving through the 10 pairs it would rate the numbers from best to worst.  The rating was

calculated by using the numbers of hits vs the current games out.  At least one number would come

from the top hitters.  The program was built when my pick-5 game was a 5-30 and it's limited to a

5-40.

RL

Great, RL. I'm trying to understand the screen and the business logic so please bear with me.

So we take the 10 pairs from the current draw and search for the number of times they've hit. Is this over the entire draw history or over a certain number of draws?

We also compute the current games out for each of those 10 pairs.

Now, what is the formula for calculating the rating using the number of hits vs the current games out?

Once we have the ratings, which ones are considered the top hitters from which you said: "At least one number would come

from the top hitters."?

Dallas, Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
1847 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

Great, RL. I'm trying to understand the screen and the business logic so please bear with me.

So we take the 10 pairs from the current draw and search for the number of times they've hit. Is this over the entire draw history or over a certain number of draws?

We also compute the current games out for each of those 10 pairs.

Now, what is the formula for calculating the rating using the number of hits vs the current games out?

Once we have the ratings, which ones are considered the top hitters from which you said: "At least one number would come

from the top hitters."?

Suggestion:

Upload the results you have to a hosting site like Box and post the link.

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
19903 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

"Do your game have a website where one can see present and past winners?"

Ya, RJOh. But apparently I'm not allowed to post a link here.

Thanks for the response, I did a web search and found other countries along with your country have 5/90 games.  Interesting, maybe the smaller matrixs weren't challenging enough.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Dallas, Texas
United States
Member #4549
May 2, 2004
1847 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

Thanks for the response, I did a web search and found other countries along with your country have 5/90 games.  Interesting, maybe the smaller matrixs weren't challenging enough.

RJOH, apparently this game is big business in Ghana. There are at least a couple of Facebook pages dedicated to predicting the outcome. Several articles talk about the professional predictors, people who make a living predicting the outcome.

As you mention there are several 5/90s, and at least one is a jackpot game with the current pot at \$246,000. Haven't found any past results for any of them.

Same question about a banker number has been asked in many places. In the Narialand forum a poster identified as the GamblingQueen has been posting her predictions since Feb,2013!

Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help.

Thanks,

G

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

United States
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September 8, 2011
3941 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

It's a 5/90 game. There's really no jackpot per se. The prize structure is multiples of what you bet. You can bet on anything from two to all the five numbers. For example, you can bet \$1 on two numbers. If your two numbers are among the five drawn, you'll be paid \$200. Three, four and five correct numbers pay higher multiples of your bet amount.

Actually, you can even bet on one number, but it has to be the first number drawn to win.

So, back to RL's point. If you could pin down one number correctly in say one out of every five games,  you'd ahead. Even once out of every seven games is ok.  But pinning down one number that often is quite elusive.

This is a matrix 5/90 of italian lotto  where the en was derived, basically the enalotto is equivalent to mega or powerball. The prize tag of 5/90 lotto is fixed, your betting amount is proportional to your prize. In Italy,5/90 is played in 10 States, and is very easy to win considerable sum. With matrix like this, probability is out of the equation(odds is just nuts!) is about finding a method to subset a section or finding a group within a certain time frame. I won 425 million lire(Equivalent of \$250,000) years ago  during my residency in that country by betting and guessing  77-89-86 for 10 mille lira (10 x 425). I played ' TERNO SECCO', meaning 3 numbers. I could have wage 5 numbers and my prize will be 10 x 425/10(42millions), because you do have 10 triads in 5C . Lets say I suspect 77-88-86 hitting in one of the States, I can play only the triads (terno secco) for all the States, but my prize tag is 1/10 of bet amount (425/10 States), 5C for 10 States will be less(4.25 million) due to 10 triads(425/10 States x10 triads). I used to wage 6C4 (15 combos) targeting only 4C3(4 triads), in this case, a triad will win 425/4.

Prize tag

2/5 pays 250x bet amount

3/5 pays 425x bet amount

4/5 pays 80,000 bet amount

5/5 pays a million x bet amount

With the new currency (euro), this is the bet/prize tag chart in gross(calcolo Lordo) for unique State(sola routa)

Ambata> guess one number, Ambo>pair, Terno>three , quarteno> quad, Cinquina>5 numbers

see the prize goes with 5C1  to 5C5 , the matrix 5/90 is a different story. Supposing I wage 3C2 opting for only pair(ambo) to win, then my prize will be 250/3 (83.33),you have 3 pairs in a triad, so my 4C will pay

1125.00 euro x bet amount(450,00/4). This game is played in MALTA, GHANA,ITALY and folks like it very much due to the prize structure.

NB>I suggest you try NON-PARAMETRIC Sampling for data inference (Probability for normal distribution for whatever parameter  is non-factor).

Prontuario delle vincite al Lotto

Tabella di calcolo Lordo per una sola ruota

Num. giocatiambataestr. det.amboternoquaternacinquina
111,23255,00----
25,6127,50250,00---
33,7418,3383,334500,00--
42,8013,7541,661125,00120.000,00-
52,2411,0025,00450,0024.000,006.000.000,00
61,879,1616,66225,008.000,001.000.000,00
71,607,8511,90128,573.428,57285.714,28
81,406,878,9280,351.714,28107.142,85
91,246,116,9453,57952,3847.619,04
101,125,505,5537,50571,4223.809,52

See the last 10 draws(Estrazione)  for all the 10 states
28/07/15

 ari 64 4 25 41 3 Cagliari 63 33 41 35 57 Firenze 61 66 43 1 80 Genova 15 78 12 82 41 Milano 65 4 86 19 6 Napoli 45 82 25 29 62 Palermo 2 17 77 83 82 Roma 21 81 6 64 63 Torino 76 64 77 62 90 Venezia 69 10 2 3 37 Nazionale 76 37 77 82 16

Estrazione n. 89del 25/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari5846414039
Cagliari8835572865
Firenze612645643
Genova3564882874
Milano5878596625
Napoli8522305040
Palermo7369906375
Roma3177716880
Torino3974463082
Venezia8127727871
Nazionale7556647230

Estrazione n. 88del 23/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari2868845
Cagliari5522201351
Firenze8741827335
Genova1465333526
Milano618657798
Napoli4942337544
Palermo8131107540
Roma8472447836
Torino751958353
Venezia2814852644
Nazionale2613388440

Estrazione n. 87del 21/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari6165465157
Cagliari4174887914
Firenze3439854568
Genova60596161
Milano5155183917
Napoli147157559
Palermo8160193048
Roma842841772
Torino688294671
Venezia603614469
Nazionale4148223744

Estrazione n. 86del 18/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari325413111
Cagliari446892888
Firenze5256873775
Genova7058336827
Milano6787264973
Napoli5538292434
Palermo6040646715
Roma523830363
Torino513971813
Venezia145092254
Nazionale4833788643

Estrazione n. 85del 16/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari808964660
Cagliari3157894324
Firenze5877107454
Genova78615714
Milano2954226175
Napoli4532435827
Palermo788967682
Roma3013423726
Torino6953703455
Venezia8926735413
Nazionale3567192973

Estrazione n. 84del 14/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari336826738
Cagliari7720116958
Firenze851099075
Genova38855447
Milano7686154463
Napoli767827529
Palermo33793894
Roma235745555
Torino5745196629
Venezia2678775567
Nazionale18274468

Estrazione n. 83del 11/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari1375457757
Cagliari1857855927
Firenze3588114954
Genova4617224438
Milano705464225
Napoli587389106
Palermo464137189
Roma6484489
Torino6223112152
Venezia415061874
Nazionale636689782

Estrazione n. 82del 09/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari872112291
Cagliari1073258034
Firenze3531241918
Genova4920253110
Milano735690665
Napoli8017535484
Palermo5288802051
Roma4120808955
Torino1130827364
Venezia1265381568
Nazionale2729686684

Estrazione n. 81del 07/07/2015

RUOTA1o estr.2o estr.3o estr.4o estr.5o estr.
Bari2560754318
Cagliari643766246
Firenze6663768541
Genova1143366344
Milano3390642572
Napoli153875548
Palermo3866471612
Roma325622472
Torino3742766831
Venezia848897812
Nazionale8055767140

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4093 Posts
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 Posted: July 28, 2015, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

CobbyCoker

The pair being searched is shown at the very top along with the total number of hits.

The green bracketed numbers are the actual numbers in the pool.  The next value under

hits shows the number of times that number showed in the next drawing after the pair

being searched hit.  The next value "dark blue is the average skips between hits.  The

entire history is used in the search but only the pair groupings are counted.   The program

searches until it finds both numbers within the same line then records the numbers that

hit in the next drawing.   If you look at the number 20, lower left you will see that after

the pair 23/25 hit.

Number 20 showed in the next drawing 9 times

Number 20's average is 1 in 4.1 games

Number 20's L/D = Last drawn is 7 games out then before that it was 6 games out then 1

etc....

These values represent the next draw after 23/25 were in the same line/set in history

which can be confusing if you don't know how they are calculated.

IMHO the number 20 looks very good to hit in the next game but this is based only on one

pairing 23/25.  It has the most shows after a 23/25 hit and is also at it's max skips given the

history of the game.  The database used here is not up to date so any fellow show me cash

players should not use this for tonight's drawing.

The top 5 for each pair being searched is recorded to a text file which is displayed when all

10 searches are finished.   The rest is done by hand comparing the L/D= "Last-Drawn" and

the total hits.   Many times one or more numbers from the top 5 overall will show in the next

game.   Many times the same value will show good with different pairs so the overall can look

very good.   When using all 10 pairs many times the same numbers will show strong.  It's also

possible that it may show strong for one pair and bad for all the others.  It takes a few hand

workouts to dig out the best numbers to play.  The wife always seemed to provide me with

one or two numbers that would show in the next drawing.

Very simple.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

New Member

Ghana
Member #134837
November 8, 2012
9 Posts
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 Posted: July 29, 2015, 1:38 am - IP Logged

Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help.

Gary, this is still a discussion on topic about how random is random. Forget about the specifics of the game I play. Many people study the results of many different games. The question I'm really asking is whether anybody has a scheme for accurately pinning down one number in a set of 'randomly' generated numbers once in a while.

Can you do it with a 5/24 matrix? 6/49?  The matrix is irrelevant. If you can pin down a number or two often, then the answer to you question is that maybe random isn't so random after all.

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19903 Posts
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 Posted: July 29, 2015, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help.

Gary, this is still a discussion on topic about how random is random. Forget about the specifics of the game I play. Many people study the results of many different games. The question I'm really asking is whether anybody has a scheme for accurately pinning down one number in a set of 'randomly' generated numbers once in a while.

Can you do it with a 5/24 matrix? 6/49?  The matrix is irrelevant. If you can pin down a number or two often, then the answer to you question is that maybe random isn't so random after all.

It's probably a mute point but RL said he was working with a 5/39 matrix or smaller where there is a 1:10 chance or better of matching any two numbers naturally.

Ohio has a 5/39 game Rolling Cash5 and to back test that theory I combined the three most popular combinations of two's into one combination of five to see what would have happened.

In 3811 drawings:
15 and 36 appeared 76 times
04 and 07 appeared 73 times
36 and 38 appeared 73 times

The combination 04-07-15-36-38 matched two 453 times, matched three 51 times and matched four 3 times and with Ohio's payouts would have returned \$1863 of a \$3811 investment or 49¢ on the dollar.

Since this combination has never matched 5, I may play it for the next ten drawings and future test it.  I'm going to at least post it on the prediction board.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

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