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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
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June 3, 2004
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Posted: July 31, 2015, 4:30 pm - IP Logged

CARBOB, you are not alone. There is a young lady who posts (or did post) in Pick3 Texas thread. I was surprised to see how many of her predictions for that evening hit that evening in pretests.

I'm using a lot of data in my selections some which come from the pretests. I am paying closer attention the numbers in the pretest too. Won't say that is the only thing, or the biggest thing, causing the two or more number hits in 2Step this time around.

Patterns and digits just started coming together in the last couple of months. Not being a year round player on any particular game and then having the medical problems spoiled the time I spent working on these games. 

Nothing in a closed set is random. It may have only a 0.19% chance of happening, but it does.

Here's the funny thing, if you take the pairs in 2Step, that is numbers 1&2, numbers 2&3, and numbers 3&4, find the percentage of the time they come out in that position, and add the three percentages together, your total will be over 100%.

Here's an example

  Forgive the charting. Working with Windows 10 and Libre Office at the moment. (Free upgrade came through this morning.)

The top half are results from the pretest and live draws. The bottom half is the start of the matrix. I'm running the whole thing now.

Have not seen ANYTHING less than 100% so far. What that proves I don't know yet. But the fact that everything is above 100% is proof any three pairs can hit together.

I know: "Go back to work Gary, and let us know what you find." LOL

Window 10 is still installing or updating on both machines.

Back later

I don't understand why you would have over 100%. Before G-Tech, there was never any talk about pre-draws. Then they mentioned pre-draws, this was some time after the mid draws began. My thinking is pick the ball set, load the machine, turn it on and do the draw.

How many draws, does the 2-step have? I think Skyline plays that game.

    eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
    LAS VEGAS
    United States
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    November 22, 2006
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    Posted: July 31, 2015, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

    Gary,

    I may be the only one on this forum, that believes the pre-draws have an effect on the game. Ricky use to agree with me he was, the only one. The reason for my belief is this, anything that man is involved with, can not be random. Look at the definition of random.

     

    Randomness

    Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.
    Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random event…

    Hi CARBOB, Gary, et al,

    I Agree!

    Always have agreed with you and our late but outstanding Ricky G. and Jack Gillen

    "Randomises is an illusion ~Dr Carl Jung, eminentSwiss Analyst

    SIDE BAR: Ricky once wrote me saying my non-random racing projections on the gaming forum had shown the only positive ROI records and were not past posted.

    "You can observe a lot just by watching." 

    ~Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

    All things can be represented by alfa-numeric symbols including curvo-linear nature. And if we graph any list on numbers from any source we find patterns emerge

    "People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it"
    ~George Bernard Shaw.

    All events themselves are not the betting area, it's what the event is really doing. Pre-lottery game & post game testing under the guise of maintaining equipment is nothing but an attempt to disrupt the potential natural rhyme, rhythm & reason between the flow of number outcome.

     

    'When you own the  (game) roulette wheel, its no longer a even chance game '
    ~Damon Runyon, the late legendary raconteur, pro player gambler good guy, newspaper man & author of "GUYS & DOLLS"

    Frankly if the games were unbeatable, then there would be no need of countermeasures against advantage winning players.

    Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there.....  ~John

    Thank you in advance for considering the opinion of a 25 year survival veteran @ gambling ground zero.

    Foretes Fortuna Juvat !

     

    Vox Clamantis in Deserto Nevado

    (Voice crying in the Nevada desert).

    PatriotEddessa_Knight

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      bgonçalves
      Brasil
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      Posted: July 31, 2015, 5:23 pm - IP Logged

      Carbor, sorry, which means pre-tests?
      Would simulations?

        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
        United States
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        Posted: July 31, 2015, 5:30 pm - IP Logged

        Carbor, sorry, which means pre-tests?
        Would simulations?

        In Florida Cash 3, they conduct 5 or 6 pre-draws before the official draw. They also conduct post-draw tests. They do not publish those draws. If Texas can show there's, why not Florida??

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          bgonçalves
          Brasil
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          Posted: July 31, 2015, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

          In Florida Cash 3, they conduct 5 or 6 pre-draws before the official draw. They also conduct post-draw tests. They do not publish those draws. If Texas can show there's, why not Florida??

          ok CARBOB, perfect, conglatulition thank you

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
            Texas
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            October 23, 2007
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            Posted: July 31, 2015, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

            So let's not make argument, k?

            Lets' make it a discussion.

            What is random to you?

            Of course, the more I look, the more I see some validity to the argument pretest affect the live draw. But a person would have to take the time to check all the pretests against all the predictions made over the course of several months to a year to have a chance at defending or disputing that plausible argument. 

            What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't.

            Getting over the stigma that something is impossible is half the battle.

            Last night's 2Step 6, 12, 16,17 BB 1

            Bummer. Sticking to the front digit pattern 0123 is costly. It hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet it is the top hitter.

            0123 hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet being the top hitter, it's still been out over 3 months. Maybe that's random at work?

            I don't know why Texas has all the pre draws that they do, but I never really got too interested in them. I always felt the official draw was the one that really counted.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
              Dallas, Texas
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              Posted: July 31, 2015, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

              I don't understand why you would have over 100%. Before G-Tech, there was never any talk about pre-draws. Then they mentioned pre-draws, this was some time after the mid draws began. My thinking is pick the ball set, load the machine, turn it on and do the draw.

              How many draws, does the 2-step have? I think Skyline plays that game.

              I can make a guess about the reason for being over 100 percent.

              1) The percentages are based on pairs in the matrix and the position they fall.

              Each pair has 528 possible way to hit. Pair1,2 can only hit in the 1&2 position. Pair 2,3 hits 496 times in the 1&2 position, and 32 times in the 2&3 position. Pair 3,4 hits 465 times in positions 1&2, 62 times in positions 2&3 and once in position 3&4.

              When you take the percentage of where each set of pairs fall, you are working with overlap with positions 2 (1&2 and 2&3) and positions 3 (2&3 and 3&4). On the other hand every possible combination falls within the matrix and therefore can be no less than a 100% possibility of hitting.

              This leaves the question do the totals higher 100+%s hit more other than the lower? That I don't now.

              2Step has 1482 live draws. With pre-test 7520+ (can't remember if it is 7521 or 7526).

              The alternative to doing this by pairs would be to do it by each number each position.  Then add the 4 percentages for each hit in each position. And compare the two.

              I have the data to do that on one of the ALL2STEPDATA folders. I know each number comes out 5984 times (11.43%). Need to see if I have a count by position and get percentages for each number in each position.

              Yep. Skyline plays this game too. He and I keep talking about getting together to compare notes, but life gets in the way.

              Thanks Edessa! I agree with you. It's hard enough to beat the odds, but when you have to play against the machines and the lottery commission, it gets near impossible!!

              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                Dallas, Texas
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                Posted: July 31, 2015, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

                0123 hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet being the top hitter, it's still been out over 3 months. Maybe that's random at work?

                I don't know why Texas has all the pre draws that they do, but I never really got too interested in them. I always felt the official draw was the one that really counted.

                It definitely is one definition of what random could be. 0123 is the highest hitter in the matrix with 5400 possibilities (10.31% of the total). The next highest are 0112 and 0122 each with 4050 possibles for a 7.73%.

                0012 has 3600 possible for 6.88%.

                1123 and 1223 have 2700 (5.16%).

                42.97% of all possible combinations have one of those 6 sets for a front digit pattern.

                After that no front digit pattern is above 4.64%. It takes the next 13 sets to equal 42.26%.

                Yep, the official draw is the one on the books. They claim the pretests are to ensure the balls and machine are working properly.

                There may be nothing in them, but CARBOB asked the relevant question: If those are innocent tests that the state collect, why can't everybody have them?

                My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                  Dallas, Texas
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                  Posted: July 31, 2015, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

                  WELP. I WAS WRONG CARBOB.

                  Any combination that starts with 1 or ends with 35 is already at 100%. If a combo starts with 1 and ends with 35 its over 200%!!!!

                  Any combination that starts with two followed by a number up to 28 is over a hundred.

                  Looks like any combination with a starting number between 1 to 15 is sure to be over 100+.

                  Starting about 19 its close. 

                  But the only way to know where the drop off occurs is to write it and run it.

                  My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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                    Posted: August 1, 2015, 12:08 am - IP Logged

                    About Pre and Post Draws:

                    My own opinion is that in mechanical draws, of course, the outcome is determined by the mechanics,

                    together with the particular make-up of a game.

                    As chance will have it, because of variations in the mechanical factors in every draw that produce the outcome

                    (an outcome), in time, sooner or later and really later, there will be a varied range of produced winning numbers,

                    and many of those "winning" numbers will "fall" (drop) on pre and on post draws, so they (the numbers)

                    will be missing from the official winning numbers.

                    That could be a hidden "bonus" reason for the having of pre and post draws,

                    as if guessing or predicting accurate winning numbers was not already hard enough.

                    Freely predicted winning numbers maybe should in time range from the lowest to the highest combination and

                    such time might be a lot sooner if pre and post draws are counted, so maybe if what I wrote is right,

                    pre and post draws do count.

                    But as dealing with pre and post draws is or can be very bothersome to some people,

                    some people can choose to ignore them (the pre and the post draws) and just try to do their best

                    without them.

                    After all, even if pre and post draws are used, it might still not be an easy thing to make accurate

                    lottery forecasts.

                    If you want to, you can take a look at this:

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362634

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362639

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362642

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2362699

                    Won

                    ------------

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2364008

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2364054

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2364074

                    Won

                    --------------

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2364207

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2364675

                    Failed

                    ----------------

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2365443

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2365486

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2365522

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2365551

                    Won

                    ---------------

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2366895

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/240717/2367016

                    Failed

                    -----------

                      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                      Posted: August 1, 2015, 8:35 am - IP Logged

                      garyo,

                      Hope I didn't derail your random thread bringing up pre-draws, sorry.

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                        bgonçalves
                        Brasil
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                        Posted: August 1, 2015, 8:40 am - IP Logged

                        Hello, we can handle the repetitions and the average of the frequencies in each position
                          The lottery's randomness, but also has locations where certain numbers are more frequent than other numbers, there seems to be a coordinate effect as a matrix
                        What is the factor that determines that certain numbers are better in certain positions when viewed in pairs or trios ???

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                          United States
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                          August 26, 2012
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                          Posted: August 1, 2015, 9:14 am - IP Logged

                          garyo,

                          Hope I didn't derail your random thread bringing up pre-draws, sorry.

                          "garyo,

                          Hope I didn't derail your random thread bringing up pre-draws, sorry."

                          Very sorry, but what is done is already done!

                          Anyhow, I made a mistake here on this:

                          I wrote:

                          "Freely predicted winning numbers maybe should in time range from the lowest to the highest combination and

                          such time might be a lot sooner if pre and post draws are counted, so maybe if what I wrote is right,"

                           It should had been:

                          "Freely drawn winning numbers maybe should in time range from the lowest to the highest combination and

                          such time might be a lot sooner if pre and post draws are counted, so maybe if what I wrote is right,"

                           pre and post draws do count.

                          --------------

                          By the way, since I already derailed the thread a little, I would like to point out, that at that time on North Carolina if I had been on that state and wanted to buy the pick 3 numbers it might had been done in this way:

                          Since as "random" and mostly the make-up of that game will have it I would had bought only the Singles as they are the ones that come out the most often;

                          I would not had bought Singles that were reduced (filtered out) too much, unless they were the only predicted singles;

                          Last, I would had used a "Progressive betting strategy"

                          For info on the last item you can always use the search option here at L.P.

                          Perhaps now that is all for this.

                          Sorry!

                            garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                            Dallas, Texas
                            United States
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                            May 2, 2004
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                            Posted: August 1, 2015, 1:09 pm - IP Logged

                            "garyo,

                            Hope I didn't derail your random thread bringing up pre-draws, sorry."

                            Very sorry, but what is done is already done!

                            Anyhow, I made a mistake here on this:

                            I wrote:

                            "Freely predicted winning numbers maybe should in time range from the lowest to the highest combination and

                            such time might be a lot sooner if pre and post draws are counted, so maybe if what I wrote is right,"

                             It should had been:

                            "Freely drawn winning numbers maybe should in time range from the lowest to the highest combination and

                            such time might be a lot sooner if pre and post draws are counted, so maybe if what I wrote is right,"

                             pre and post draws do count.

                            --------------

                            By the way, since I already derailed the thread a little, I would like to point out, that at that time on North Carolina if I had been on that state and wanted to buy the pick 3 numbers it might had been done in this way:

                            Since as "random" and mostly the make-up of that game will have it I would had bought only the Singles as they are the ones that come out the most often;

                            I would not had bought Singles that were reduced (filtered out) too much, unless they were the only predicted singles;

                            Last, I would had used a "Progressive betting strategy"

                            For info on the last item you can always use the search option here at L.P.

                            Perhaps now that is all for this.

                            Sorry!

                            Mon-El, CARBOB.....

                             

                            You guys are funny!

                            Went to bed last night wondering if I derailed the thread by giving examples based on 2Step.

                            I had to reaffirm to myself as long as people are participating, and we have data, and ideas are being tossed around, I don't mind where it goes.

                            If anybody wants to chime in about their ideas of random, we're here.

                            Anybody who wants to post about their particular game is welcome. I'd be seven letter word, starts with 'A'  to say otherwise since I violated that myself. 

                            Mon-El said it best. what's done is done. Not gonna sit and bust my brain, build a database, and write for a 5/90 game when the guy was asked to post his data. And....

                            then he blamed Todd for not letting him post a link??????

                            If you won't use the options available to help us help you, don't blame anybody but yourself. If you won't start your own thread, you won't send a personal message, you won't use file sharing, then you don't appear to want help.

                            So as long as there is a discussion, and as long as ideas are being exchanged, let it rip.

                            BTW,  I like the new special characters function!

                            Back later.

                            My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
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                              Posted: August 2, 2015, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

                              It seems most members believe that random is unpredictable and some even blame it on what takes place before or after the official drawings.  Regardless that is what random is suppose to mean. 

                              When predictors success rates are the same as the overall win rates of the games they predict, it shouldn't be a surprise if you're not comparing apples with bananas.  Comparing different predictors success on the prediction board is often like that. 

                              When one post predictions for a game like Texas's All or Nothing with an overall win rate of 1:4.5 and has 22.2% success it shouldn't be a surprise if it's higher than the success rate of one predicting for PB with a overall win rate 1:31.8  who has a success rate of 6.3%.  The 22.2% success rate doesn't mean he/she's has beaten random or is a better predictor but that they are predicting an easier game where random isn't as tough.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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