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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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Ghana
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Posted: July 26, 2015, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

RL, by any chance, is that tool still available?  Would love to be able to pin down one number once in awhile to be used as a banker.

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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    Posted: July 26, 2015, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

    It was far enough back that it was coded using 16-bit dos.  If I could find it I am not sure it would

    run on newer computers.  The program required the user to select the numbers but there always

    seemed to be a couple that kinda stuck out.   It was based on an analysis of gap/skips

    RL

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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      Ghana
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      Posted: July 26, 2015, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

      Thanks for the reply. Been trying to write dot net code to do that for a long time without success. Sure, you get one number correct once a while but it's not better than randomly selecting any number or sticking with a specific number.

        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
        Dallas, Texas
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        Posted: July 26, 2015, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

        Thanks for the reply. Been trying to write dot net code to do that for a long time without success. Sure, you get one number correct once a while but it's not better than randomly selecting any number or sticking with a specific number.

        What game are you playing?

        What is the matrix?

        How many out of how many do you need to get to have a win?

        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: July 27, 2015, 1:37 am - IP Logged

          It was far enough back that it was coded using 16-bit dos.  If I could find it I am not sure it would

          run on newer computers.  The program required the user to select the numbers but there always

          seemed to be a couple that kinda stuck out.   It was based on an analysis of gap/skips

          RL

          "It was far enough back that it was coded using 16-bit dos.  If I could find it I am not sure it would run on newer computers."

          All my old GWBasic programs were written for DOS and worked fine even in Windows XP, it was Windows 8 that was the problem.  When I loaded them into the QB64 compiler, it pointed out a few changes that needed made and they ran fine except for the colors. A few color changes and they are working fine. 

          I didn't even have to change the file handling or get rid of the line numbers even thought I was told I would need to open files like in QBasic. As I lean more about QB64 I will change that.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: July 27, 2015, 1:49 am - IP Logged

            RJ

            I use to have a tool that I used to help pin down a couple numbers and the best I can remember

            it hit quite often.  I don't think I would ever try something like that even if I had the money to

            throw away.  Unless a person had a few very fast printers it would be hard to fill out that many

            bet-slips between drawings.

            RL

            That the problem with a game with daily drawings, you don't really have a lot of time, but if you reduced the odds of winning a jackpot of a 5/39 game to 1:73,815 lines that improves your chances of a big win by almost 8X even if you're only playing ten lines.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

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              Ghana
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              Posted: July 27, 2015, 4:00 am - IP Logged

              What game are you playing?

              What is the matrix?

              How many out of how many do you need to get to have a win?

              It's a 5/90 game. There's really no jackpot per se. The prize structure is multiples of what you bet. You can bet on anything from two to all the five numbers. For example, you can bet $1 on two numbers. If your two numbers are among the five drawn, you'll be paid $200. Three, four and five correct numbers pay higher multiples of your bet amount.

              Actually, you can even bet on one number, but it has to be the first number drawn to win.

              So, back to RL's point. If you could pin down one number correctly in say one out of every five games,  you'd ahead. Even once out of every seven games is ok.  But pinning down one number that often is quite elusive.

                garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                Posted: July 27, 2015, 9:06 am - IP Logged

                It's a 5/90 game. There's really no jackpot per se. The prize structure is multiples of what you bet. You can bet on anything from two to all the five numbers. For example, you can bet $1 on two numbers. If your two numbers are among the five drawn, you'll be paid $200. Three, four and five correct numbers pay higher multiples of your bet amount.

                Actually, you can even bet on one number, but it has to be the first number drawn to win.

                So, back to RL's point. If you could pin down one number correctly in say one out of every five games,  you'd ahead. Even once out of every seven games is ok.  But pinning down one number that often is quite elusive.

                Five of 90? Wow!

                The game master must be hurting for money. I know the public stance they take is they want to offer larger prizes, but they want to make money too. Games like this say to me: More people are winning something. More people are playing smarter. More people learning how to play.

                Back to the idea.....

                Any of the five is your banker. Don't look for just one possible banker, use a set. Old WIN D idea originally applied to Pick3.

                Rather than trying to determine what three numbers could come out, work with a range of possibilities by sets. In that thread it was pretty much decided that 6 digits was the best possible trade off between expenditure and reward.

                Here I've applied it using only the back digits of Texas 2Step. SET is the set #. There are 210 sets of 6 back digits in 2Step. The X#'s (X1-X6) are the digits being tracked. Bhit is the number of hits per set. Strx is the longest that set has ever been out. Strx is the current number of times the set has been missing.

                Same chart. The first half I sorted the results by the number of hits for each set. The second half(in blue) I sorted by how long each set has been out. 

                Try something similar. With 5 of 90 you're going to have many many more sets. Try is with a different number of members per set. Say a set of 3, 4 or 5 numbers.

                When we see something like this the tendency is to jump in the deep end and play the sets that comes out the most, or the set that has been out the longest. In Pick 3 we discovered the longest out set rarely accommodated that thinking. Normally the set that hit that night was between the second and fifth longest missing.

                Depending on the number of draws the game has, there might not be enough data to even consider this approach.

                Good Luck!

                My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                  Dallas, Texas
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                  Posted: July 27, 2015, 9:37 am - IP Logged

                  "It was far enough back that it was coded using 16-bit dos.  If I could find it I am not sure it would run on newer computers."

                  All my old GWBasic programs were written for DOS and worked fine even in Windows XP, it was Windows 8 that was the problem.  When I loaded them into the QB64 compiler, it pointed out a few changes that needed made and they ran fine except for the colors. A few color changes and they are working fine. 

                  I didn't even have to change the file handling or get rid of the line numbers even thought I was told I would need to open files like in QBasic. As I lean more about QB64 I will change that.

                  Same here, RJOH.

                  Once in a while I come across programs that have line numbers from GWBASIC. QB64 hasn't made a fuss yet. LPRINT statements are another story, or were. I downloaded and installed the qb1000 version yesterday. Looking forward to seeing how that goes now.

                  And Windows 8.1 is turning out to be more work than expected. Used the file transfer wizard, but it didn't transfer the Excel product key.  Tried reinstalling Office and got the message, the product key was already used on the maximum number of machines.

                  My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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                    Ghana
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                    November 8, 2012
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                    Posted: July 27, 2015, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                    Five of 90? Wow!

                    The game master must be hurting for money. I know the public stance they take is they want to offer larger prizes, but they want to make money too. Games like this say to me: More people are winning something. More people are playing smarter. More people learning how to play.

                    Back to the idea.....

                    Any of the five is your banker. Don't look for just one possible banker, use a set. Old WIN D idea originally applied to Pick3.

                    Rather than trying to determine what three numbers could come out, work with a range of possibilities by sets. In that thread it was pretty much decided that 6 digits was the best possible trade off between expenditure and reward.

                    Here I've applied it using only the back digits of Texas 2Step. SET is the set #. There are 210 sets of 6 back digits in 2Step. The X#'s (X1-X6) are the digits being tracked. Bhit is the number of hits per set. Strx is the longest that set has ever been out. Strx is the current number of times the set has been missing.

                    Same chart. The first half I sorted the results by the number of hits for each set. The second half(in blue) I sorted by how long each set has been out. 

                    Try something similar. With 5 of 90 you're going to have many many more sets. Try is with a different number of members per set. Say a set of 3, 4 or 5 numbers.

                    When we see something like this the tendency is to jump in the deep end and play the sets that comes out the most, or the set that has been out the longest. In Pick 3 we discovered the longest out set rarely accommodated that thinking. Normally the set that hit that night was between the second and fifth longest missing.

                    Depending on the number of draws the game has, there might not be enough data to even consider this approach.

                    Good Luck!

                    Thanks Gary. I'll study your suggestion and see how it goes. The game has over 5000 draw history so there is enough data to code and back test any idea one might have.

                     

                    I think you might be comparing it to the games you have in the States, but it's quite different actually. It's a 5/90 game but almost nobody bets on five numbers. Most folks select and bet on two numbers. So it's more like a 2/90 game. There are 4005 two-number combinations from the 90. If you are sure of your two numbers, you go and sell the farm and bet it all on those two numbers!! The payoff is 200 times whatever you bet.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: July 27, 2015, 12:02 pm - IP Logged

                      Same here, RJOH.

                      Once in a while I come across programs that have line numbers from GWBASIC. QB64 hasn't made a fuss yet. LPRINT statements are another story, or were. I downloaded and installed the qb1000 version yesterday. Looking forward to seeing how that goes now.

                      And Windows 8.1 is turning out to be more work than expected. Used the file transfer wizard, but it didn't transfer the Excel product key.  Tried reinstalling Office and got the message, the product key was already used on the maximum number of machines.

                      Haven't used LPRINT, I print out what I want to a text file and print it.  That way I can make extra copies without rerunning the program.  This a work sheet I printed out for the next MM drawing:

                      MEGAMILL      07-27-2015    11:24:23      MX072715
                      ____|____|____|____|____    1                   2                   3
                      ____|____|____|____|____    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
                          |    |    |    |        A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U
                       
                                      ck *164 draws with [20]  prev draws = 3280
                       1   0 = 9 to 19 / 14                   1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       1   1 = 1 to 10 / 5                    1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                       1   2 = 0 to 4 / 1                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                      MTC 5               THT = 1 / 1 - 15   PHT = 1 / 0 - 8
                       
                                      ck *152 draws with [32]  prev draws = 4864
                       1   0 = 14 to 29 / 22                  1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       1   1 = 3 to 14 / 9                    1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                       1   2 = 0 to 5 / 1                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                      MTC 5               THT = 1 / 3 - 23   PHT = 1 / 0 - 12
                       
                                      ck *127 draws with [57]  prev draws = 7239
                       1   0 = 32 to 49 / 40                  1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       1   1 = 8 to 23 / 15                   1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                       1   2 = 0 to 7 / 2                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                      MTC 5               THT = 1 / 8 - 32   PHT = 1 / 1 - 18
                       
                                      ck [184] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 33856
                       1   0 = 108 to 144 / 128               1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       1   1 = 35 to 64 / 49                  1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                       1   2 = 0 to 13 / 6                    1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                      MTC 5              *THT = 1 / 42 - 86   PHT = 1 / 11 - 41
                       
                                      ck [1053] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 193752
                       5   0 = 619 to 933 / 733               1   3 = 0 to 8 / 2
                       4   1 = 118 to 372 / 284               1   4 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       1   2 = 1 to 69 / 34                   1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                      MTC 5              *THT = 5 / 120 - 495   PHT = 4 / 11 - 265
                       
                                      ck [1377] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 253368
                       6   0 = 806 to 1235 / 956              1   3 = 0 to 10 / 2
                       5   1 = 140 to 487 / 373               1   4 = 0 to 1 / 0
                       2   2 = 1 to 89 / 45                   1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                      MTC 5              *THT = 7 / 142 - 656   PHT = 5 / 11 - 344
                       
                                      ck [4325] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 795800
                       18  0 = 2524 to 3899 / 2995            1   3 = 0 to 24 / 7
                       15  1 = 424 to 1529 / 1177             1   4 = 0 to 2 / 0
                       4   2 = 1 to 287 / 145                 1   5 = 0 to 1 / 1
                      MTC 5              *THT = 22 / 426 - 2092   PHT = 14 / 11 - 1060 

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Dallas, Texas
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                        Posted: July 27, 2015, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

                        Thanks Gary. I'll study your suggestion and see how it goes. The game has over 5000 draw history so there is enough data to code and back test any idea one might have.

                         

                        I think you might be comparing it to the games you have in the States, but it's quite different actually. It's a 5/90 game but almost nobody bets on five numbers. Most folks select and bet on two numbers. So it's more like a 2/90 game. There are 4005 two-number combinations from the 90. If you are sure of your two numbers, you go and sell the farm and bet it all on those two numbers!! The payoff is 200 times whatever you bet.

                        Last 2Step winner was 7 25 31 35 BB 22

                         

                        Counting 22 as the fifth number would be three winners.

                        Such is life.

                        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                          Dallas, Texas
                          United States
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                          May 2, 2004
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                          Online
                          Posted: July 27, 2015, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                          Haven't used LPRINT, I print out what I want to a text file and print it.  That way I can make extra copies without rerunning the program.  This a work sheet I printed out for the next MM drawing:

                          MEGAMILL      07-27-2015    11:24:23      MX072715
                          ____|____|____|____|____    1                   2                   3
                          ____|____|____|____|____    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
                              |    |    |    |        A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U
                           
                                          ck *164 draws with [20]  prev draws = 3280
                           1   0 = 9 to 19 / 14                   1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           1   1 = 1 to 10 / 5                    1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                           1   2 = 0 to 4 / 1                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                          MTC 5               THT = 1 / 1 - 15   PHT = 1 / 0 - 8
                           
                                          ck *152 draws with [32]  prev draws = 4864
                           1   0 = 14 to 29 / 22                  1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           1   1 = 3 to 14 / 9                    1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                           1   2 = 0 to 5 / 1                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                          MTC 5               THT = 1 / 3 - 23   PHT = 1 / 0 - 12
                           
                                          ck *127 draws with [57]  prev draws = 7239
                           1   0 = 32 to 49 / 40                  1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           1   1 = 8 to 23 / 15                   1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                           1   2 = 0 to 7 / 2                     1   5 = 0 to 0 / 0
                          MTC 5               THT = 1 / 8 - 32   PHT = 1 / 1 - 18
                           
                                          ck [184] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 33856
                           1   0 = 108 to 144 / 128               1   3 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           1   1 = 35 to 64 / 49                  1   4 = 0 to 0 / 0
                           1   2 = 0 to 13 / 6                    1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                          MTC 5              *THT = 1 / 42 - 86   PHT = 1 / 11 - 41
                           
                                          ck [1053] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 193752
                           5   0 = 619 to 933 / 733               1   3 = 0 to 8 / 2
                           4   1 = 118 to 372 / 284               1   4 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           1   2 = 1 to 69 / 34                   1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                          MTC 5              *THT = 5 / 120 - 495   PHT = 4 / 11 - 265
                           
                                          ck [1377] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 253368
                           6   0 = 806 to 1235 / 956              1   3 = 0 to 10 / 2
                           5   1 = 140 to 487 / 373               1   4 = 0 to 1 / 0
                           2   2 = 1 to 89 / 45                   1   5 = 1 to 1 / 1
                          MTC 5              *THT = 7 / 142 - 656   PHT = 5 / 11 - 344
                           
                                          ck [4325] draws with *184 draws of WHEELSYS = 795800
                           18  0 = 2524 to 3899 / 2995            1   3 = 0 to 24 / 7
                           15  1 = 424 to 1529 / 1177             1   4 = 0 to 2 / 0
                           4   2 = 1 to 287 / 145                 1   5 = 0 to 1 / 1
                          MTC 5              *THT = 22 / 426 - 2092   PHT = 14 / 11 - 1060 

                          LPRINT was the old line print command back when life was full of dot matrix printers.

                          One the ink jet, bubble jet, and laser jets took over, it became obsolete. That's when I started writing to a CSV and importing into Excel. 

                          I like the layout, I don't know what the numbers mean. Clean and simple. That's what I try to do too.

                          My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            March 24, 2001
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                            Online
                            Posted: July 27, 2015, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                            LPRINT was the old line print command back when life was full of dot matrix printers.

                            One the ink jet, bubble jet, and laser jets took over, it became obsolete. That's when I started writing to a CSV and importing into Excel. 

                            I like the layout, I don't know what the numbers mean. Clean and simple. That's what I try to do too.

                            They just compares parts of the MM file with the whole files.  There has been 184 drawings in the present matrix, 1053 include the previous matrix and 1377 include all three matrix changes since the name changed from BigGame to MegaMillions and so on.  I put those figures into my RNG when I'm trying to find some combinations that haven't come up before but still stay within the parameters of recent winners.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: July 27, 2015, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                              Last 2Step winner was 7 25 31 35 BB 22

                               

                              Counting 22 as the fifth number would be three winners.

                              Such is life.

                              Not bad at all! But yes, getting the bonus ball would have been nice, do more work on bonus ball prediction.

                                 
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