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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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garyo1954's avatar - garyo
Dallas, Texas
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Posted: July 29, 2015, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

Now, while I appreciate Cobby for participating in this thread, I hope he can appreciate my asking that he not turn this thread into the Ghana Lottery discussion. The reason I ask: Few, if any, have the results available, know the rules, or have access to the result. Without any of that, we're left with little to offer in the way of insight or help. 

Gary, this is still a discussion on topic about how random is random. Forget about the specifics of the game I play. Many people study the results of many different games. The question I'm really asking is whether anybody has a scheme for accurately pinning down one number in a set of 'randomly' generated numbers once in a while.

Can you do it with a 5/24 matrix? 6/49?  The matrix is irrelevant. If you can pin down a number or two often, then the answer to you question is that maybe random isn't so random after all.

I'm glad we agree that this thread is not about a particular lottery.

I'm happy you chose to ask the question in a more general sense as well. I admit, had you asked regarding a 4 ball, 5 ball, or 6 ball game we are all familiar with, you would not have gotten the same reaction. I have no problem with a thread getting derailed if it interests the majority. And had you posted the data for each of us to examine, I would have no problem with your question.

My problem was 1) not having the data and you not providing it, and 2) it not pertaining to a game we, as a group, are familiar with.

Three years ago Perdue started a thread on the Ghana 5/90. It received 1 (unflattering) response.

 2 +2 = No data + No interest = dead thread

Now, in the general sense, there is nothing in a closed system that is random.

Unexpected? Yes.

An aberration or change in pattern? Yes. 

Random? No.

Random, as it pertains to the lottery, is an expressive connotation as in, "off the wall," "without warning," "totally didn't see that coming." It's not like an asteroid appeared out of nowhere and took out New York. 

There are enough people here that do hit one or two numbers (by whatever means) in Pick3, the four ball games, Cash5, and their state lotteries that they are doing better than scatter shooting at stars. Look at RL's T-Lex thread, check Skylines thread, or this thread, where I posted tickets. I would post Mondays 2Step ticket where I played three sets, but I'm ashamed of it. I had the 1 in the first position and was off by one number in two other positions.

Ask yourself this, if it is so hard to get one or two numbers, why don't the lotteries pay out on those? (I get $5 for the right bonus ball which is basically a 1 out of 35 draw.)

Some Pick3s pay $20 on sums (1 out 27) and/or $20 on pairs (1 out of 99). Why not pay $2 or a free ticket for getting 1 of the 5 in a 5/39?

Occam's Razor says, people do it more than you realize. And the lottery knows it would lose money paying out on the 1 and 2 ball winners.

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
    Dallas, Texas
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    Posted: July 29, 2015, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

    I LIKE HOW YOU THINK RJOH!

    Last night was in the kitchen putting leftovers away when the aluminium foil popped out of the box unrolling itself straight to the floor.

    For that second, my mind had forgotten about food and foil and was working on pairs.

    It was begging the question how often does one number (pick a number) 16 come out. And how often a second number (pick a number) 21 come out individually.

    How often do they come out together? And what is the expectancy of this pair together opposed to individually?

    And what is the expectancy of this pair hitting compared to the current number of draws?

    Started that this morning.

    Sad thing, these ideas keep me from getting other things done. Oh, I did put the foil back in the box and the leftovers in the fridge, but the new printer is not set up or installed and the keyboard and mouse for this system is still in the box.

    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: July 29, 2015, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

      I LIKE HOW YOU THINK RJOH!

      Last night was in the kitchen putting leftovers away when the aluminium foil popped out of the box unrolling itself straight to the floor.

      For that second, my mind had forgotten about food and foil and was working on pairs.

      It was begging the question how often does one number (pick a number) 16 come out. And how often a second number (pick a number) 21 come out individually.

      How often do they come out together? And what is the expectancy of this pair together opposed to individually?

      And what is the expectancy of this pair hitting compared to the current number of draws?

      Started that this morning.

      Sad thing, these ideas keep me from getting other things done. Oh, I did put the foil back in the box and the leftovers in the fridge, but the new printer is not set up or installed and the keyboard and mouse for this system is still in the box.

      If you're the type of lottery player who finds thinking about lotteries as entertaining as playing them, you think about the questions many ask and guess at the answers when with a computer and a few lines of code you could get a better answer. 

      Like the other day in the math forum when someone asked the amount of numbers that could be removed from a 6/49 pool and still have 50% coverage.  Most were guessing maybe 16-20 but a check of the actual history of a Ohio Classic Lotto(6/49) file showed only 4-5 could be removed and Jadelottery showed us all it could be calculated using the right formula which he thought most serious lottery player knew but I didn't.

      When someone asks a question if I'm interested and can check it out, I will.  I never know what I might find out and it could maybe help me predict a winner some day.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
        Dallas, Texas
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        Posted: July 30, 2015, 1:04 am - IP Logged

        If you're the type of lottery player who finds thinking about lotteries as entertaining as playing them, you think about the questions many ask and guess at the answers when with a computer and a few lines of code you could get a better answer. 

        Like the other day in the math forum when someone asked the amount of numbers that could be removed from a 6/49 pool and still have 50% coverage.  Most were guessing maybe 16-20 but a check of the actual history of a Ohio Classic Lotto(6/49) file showed only 4-5 could be removed and Jadelottery showed us all it could be calculated using the right formula which he thought most serious lottery player knew but I didn't.

        When someone asks a question if I'm interested and can check it out, I will.  I never know what I might find out and it could maybe help me predict a winner some day.

        Yep. My mind does work on questions asked here, even when I don't admit it, or post a response. Far too often in the past I working on others ideas while getting nothing done on mine.

        Jade uses magitician or mathigician......LOL Jade is brilliant at math, excellent programmer. He posts things I have no idea about or where to start asking questions to find out! If I were a zombie, I'd eat his brain! Thumbs Up

        But not today! Today I took a program called pairsout, made changes and produced the 2step version. There is a total of 595 sets. Set is the set count. There are 1482 live Draws. N1 is the first number in the pair. N2 is the second number in the pair. N1H is the how many times the first number hit. N2H is how many times the second number hit. Hit is how many times they hit together. Longest is longest the pair has been out. Current is how long it is currently out.

        I ran the same for the live draws plus the pretest which is the 7431 column.

        I would have expected numbers that come out the most to have the best chance of hitting together. See pair 1 (159) and 30 (202) which hits 12 times together (blue box), not quite what you would expect compared to say 1 (159) and 34 (181) which hits 21 times (yellow) together, or 1 (159) and 11 (145) which hits 22  times (yellow) together.

        Tomorrow I'll get the opportunity to take all this into Excel and play with percentages, and/or make the changes to have the program calculate those for me. Then I'll know more what I'm looking at.

        At the moment I'm wondering if we should weight the higher and lower hit rates by individual numbers. Or maybe break the drawings into hundreds to see if some pairs don't get on a roll, hit a few times (in a bunch) and drop back.

        Goodnight,

         

        G

        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:33 pm - IP Logged

          "Round and round she goes, and where she stops nobody knows" is a interesting definition of random, but when only 15 million outcomes are covered out of 258 million, it really doesn't matter how they define random. Some people complain about the methods lotteries use to create random as if a pre-drawing changes the state's version of random. Probability predicts trends but it doesn't prove random must follow a trend.

          Systems give players logical reasons to play combos or for wheeling a group of numbers, but when their system fails they can always say "its because the drawings are random".

            garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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            Posted: July 30, 2015, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

            Thought this might be of interest to the 2Step players who have ever wondered how often the same back digit comes out as a pair, a trip, or a quad. Old chart but the left side is a run of the entire matrix pulling out the pairs (same digit in two positions),  trips (three positions), quads (all four back digits the same).

            LD= Last Digit

            POS = position; X is hit; O is a miss; XXXX = all four back digits the same;  XXXO = first three back digits the same and 4th different.

            There are a total 5 quads in the entire matrix.

            780 Triples (1.49%)

            20390 Pairs (38.94%)

            That means 6 out of every 10 drawing will have 4 different back digits in Texas 2Step.

            Soon as I locate the program I'll update the right side results.

            My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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              Posted: July 31, 2015, 8:21 am - IP Logged

              "Round and round she goes, and where she stops nobody knows" is a interesting definition of random, but when only 15 million outcomes are covered out of 258 million, it really doesn't matter how they define random. Some people complain about the methods lotteries use to create random as if a pre-drawing changes the state's version of random. Probability predicts trends but it doesn't prove random must follow a trend.

              Systems give players logical reasons to play combos or for wheeling a group of numbers, but when their system fails they can always say "its because the drawings are random".

              With several members in this forum claiming their systems are working there are a few who think they know "where she stops".

              I haven't read any of those threads because they aren't about any of the four games I play.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                bgonçalves
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                Posted: July 31, 2015, 8:56 am - IP Logged

                Gary, four groups of 00 pairs of A99 Where is p = i = odd couple You can filter by groups looking under every position from the last draw of pick3. Pick4
                02 04 06 08 20 22 24 26 28 40 42 44 46 48 60 62 64 66 68 80 82 84 86 88 00 pp =pp
                11 13 15 17 19 31 33 35 37 39 51 53 55 57 59 71 73 75 77 79 91 93 95 97 99 ii =ii
                10 12 14 16 18 30 32 34 36 38 50 52 54 56 58 70 72 74 76 78 90 92 94 96 98 ip =ip
                01 03 05 07 09 21 23 25 27 29 41 43 45 47 49 61 63 65 67 69 81 83 85 87 89 pi =pi

                p= even

                 i= odd

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                  Posted: July 31, 2015, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

                  "Round and round she goes, and where she stops nobody knows" is a interesting definition of random, but when only 15 million outcomes are covered out of 258 million, it really doesn't matter how they define random. Some people complain about the methods lotteries use to create random as if a pre-drawing changes the state's version of random. Probability predicts trends but it doesn't prove random must follow a trend.

                  Systems give players logical reasons to play combos or for wheeling a group of numbers, but when their system fails they can always say "its because the drawings are random".

                  So let's not make argument, k?

                  Lets' make it a discussion.

                  What is random to you?

                  Of course, the more I look, the more I see some validity to the argument pretest affect the live draw. But a person would have to take the time to check all the pretests against all the predictions made over the course of several months to a year to have a chance at defending or disputing that plausible argument. 

                  What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't.

                  Getting over the stigma that something is impossible is half the battle.

                  Last night's 2Step 6, 12, 16,17 BB 1

                  Bummer. Sticking to the front digit pattern 0123 is costly. It hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet it is the top hitter.

                  My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                    ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                    Posted: July 31, 2015, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                    So let's not make argument, k?

                    Lets' make it a discussion.

                    What is random to you?

                    Of course, the more I look, the more I see some validity to the argument pretest affect the live draw. But a person would have to take the time to check all the pretests against all the predictions made over the course of several months to a year to have a chance at defending or disputing that plausible argument. 

                    What's interesting to me is everybody wants to say its random, but given the opportunity to write their own definition of random, they won't.

                    Getting over the stigma that something is impossible is half the battle.

                    Last night's 2Step 6, 12, 16,17 BB 1

                    Bummer. Sticking to the front digit pattern 0123 is costly. It hasn't hit in a live draw since April, yet it is the top hitter.

                    Gary,

                    I may be the only one on this forum, that believes the pre-draws have an effect on the game. Ricky use to agree with me he was, the only one. The reason for my belief is this, anything that man is involved with, can not be random. Look at the definition of random.

                     

                    Randomness

                    Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.
                    Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random event…
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                      bgonçalves
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                      Posted: July 31, 2015, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

                      Gary,

                      I may be the only one on this forum, that believes the pre-draws have an effect on the game. Ricky use to agree with me he was, the only one. The reason for my belief is this, anything that man is involved with, can not be random. Look at the definition of random.

                       

                      Randomness

                      Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.
                      Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random event…

                      Carbor nevertheless we can still find a pattern, a reference or basis for noa walking in circles, the last draw, can be one of the reference, and keep several sweepstakes
                      How to find a standard for reference ???

                        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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                        Posted: July 31, 2015, 2:44 pm - IP Logged

                        Carbor nevertheless we can still find a pattern, a reference or basis for noa walking in circles, the last draw, can be one of the reference, and keep several sweepstakes
                        How to find a standard for reference ???

                        The last draw does not have any meaning, because of pre-draws. The real last draw, is the last pre- draw.

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: July 31, 2015, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

                          The last draw does not have any meaning, because of pre-draws. The real last draw, is the last pre- draw.

                          There will always be some kind of preparations for every official drawing, whether that be pretests, checking or changing the balls or just checking the equipment making sure it's ready to go.  You seem to be saying if the equipment or balls are touched between drawings then draw history has no meaning.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
                                       Evil Looking       

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                            Posted: July 31, 2015, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                            There will always be some kind of preparations for every official drawing, whether that be pretests, checking or changing the balls or just checking the equipment making sure it's ready to go.  You seem to be saying if the equipment or balls are touched between drawings then draw history has no meaning.

                            That is exactly what I am saying. We will do a draw , pick the ball set, pick the machine, don't do any testing with the machine. Turn it on and begin. If there is a machine failure, get a complete new set. Those machines do not fail to work very often. No pre-draws. I use to have stats before G-Tech got the contract in Florida and there was only Eve draw. I don't have those stats anymore , hard drive failure. I use to do very good, in Play 4 and Cash 3.

                              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                              Posted: July 31, 2015, 4:17 pm - IP Logged

                              Gary,

                              I may be the only one on this forum, that believes the pre-draws have an effect on the game. Ricky use to agree with me he was, the only one. The reason for my belief is this, anything that man is involved with, can not be random. Look at the definition of random.

                               

                              Randomness

                              Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.
                              Randomness means lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination. Individual random event…

                              CARBOB, you are not alone. There is a young lady who posts (or did post) in Pick3 Texas thread. I was surprised to see how many of her predictions for that evening hit that evening in pretests.

                              I'm using a lot of data in my selections some which come from the pretests. I am paying closer attention the numbers in the pretest too. Won't say that is the only thing, or the biggest thing, causing the two or more number hits in 2Step this time around.

                              Patterns and digits just started coming together in the last couple of months. Not being a year round player on any particular game and then having the medical problems spoiled the time I spent working on these games. 

                              Nothing in a closed set is random. It may have only a 0.19% chance of happening, but it does.

                              Here's the funny thing, if you take the pairs in 2Step, that is numbers 1&2, numbers 2&3, and numbers 3&4, find the percentage of the time they come out in that position, and add the three percentages together, your total will be over 100%.

                              Here's an example

                                Forgive the charting. Working with Windows 10 and Libre Office at the moment. (Free upgrade came through this morning.)

                              The top half are results from the pretest and live draws. The bottom half is the start of the matrix. I'm running the whole thing now.

                              Have not seen ANYTHING less than 100% so far. What that proves I don't know yet. But the fact that everything is above 100% is proof any three pairs can hit together.

                              I know: "Go back to work Gary, and let us know what you find." LOL

                              Window 10 is still installing or updating on both machines.

                              Back later

                              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                                 
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