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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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Kentucky
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Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

I don't want to start another brouhaha but here's what I've gotten out of this:

PP's are capable of outperforming QP's by having all the numbers in play (even though as shown, that edge still does not guarantee it).

But having that many lines in play is going to cost a fortune with regular play (a lot more than most people want to spend, anyway).

So while in theory and while playing on paper it can have it's benefits, it would seem impractical from a sound financial prospective to go that route.

If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing worth of QP's it really doesn't bother me.

And maybe that's what the difference is: The QP players are only buying a couple bucks worth (or $5 or $10) and on that basis alone the PP players can't compete because at that level they can't get enough numbers in play.

Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck.

 

 

Disclaimer: I am not an advocate or proponent of either method. I play both ways.

"So while in theory and while playing on paper it can have it's benefits, it would seem impractical from a sound financial prospective to go that route "

The 70% to 80% QP purchases and winners is a mathematical probability, Ridge. A QP player has to buy on average 75 QPs before they can expect to get all 46 bonus balls. A PP player would have to purchase at least 12 PP before they can have all 56 numbers. It's reasonable to assume the average player purchases on average $10 or less so we won't see very many QP players buying 75 QPs. It's more likely to see a systems player buying 12 PPs, but for every $12 spent on PPs, $36 will be spent on QPs.

"PP's are capable of outperforming QP's by having all the numbers in play (even though as shown, that edge still does not guarantee it)."

The 46 combo wheel is a mathematical probability too, but there is no guarantee it can out perform Tigg's $1 QP. The one thing both QP and PP players have in common is both groups are trying to win millions so while getting back a few bucks helps, it's not exactly why they are playing.

    visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
    light on my feet
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    Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

    07-14-21-36-54  + 07

    1 Quick Pick for Powerball
    Generated by Lottery Post's exclusive Quick Picks Generator
    http://www.lotterypost.com/quickpicks

     

    for all you excuse makers,  that's 46 QUICK PICKS from the LP generator.

    now what OTHER excuse(s)  will you come up with ???

                "i am .........."meant to"       

    P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

             until further notice,  it's  france everyday

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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      Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

      07-14-21-36-54  + 07

      1 Quick Pick for Powerball
      Generated by Lottery Post's exclusive Quick Picks Generator
      http://www.lotterypost.com/quickpicks

       

      for all you excuse makers,  that's 46 QUICK PICKS from the LP generator.

      now what OTHER excuse(s)  will you come up with ???

      Dude, lol, do you know how many of your detractors are going to go out and play that same line just to make sure you can't claim the jackpot alone, just in case?

      I know that kinda stuff happens cuz tiggs does it all the time to everybody.  He's probably at the store getting the ticket right now.

      No wait, it's almost 10:00, he's probably strapped down for the night already.


                                                   
                           
                                               

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                         

      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

       

       

        visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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        Posted: July 26, 2010, 11:10 pm - IP Logged

        Dude, lol, do you know how many of your detractors are going to go out and play that same line just to make sure you can't claim the jackpot alone, just in case?

        I know that kinda stuff happens cuz tiggs does it all the time to everybody.  He's probably at the store getting the ticket right now.

        No wait, it's almost 10:00, he's probably strapped down for the night already.

        even iffin i wanted to,  i couldn't but a ticket for powerball,  because they only sell mega da millions in this nutty state.

        what's completely hysterical,  is the "others" kept saying i had to purchase the tickets in order to get "46 combo's" of QP's,  otherwise it would technically be a "PP".

        i only wish i knew what their first thought was when "they"  saw my 46 QP  combo accomplishment.

        i suspect a change of underwear for each of them.    probably twice for stack.

        ha ha.

        anyway,  "they" are putting their collective excuse super colliders together thru PM's as we speak.

        who knew that one guy,  armed with only a high school edumacation,  would draw a demarcation factual line in the LP sand.

        tiggs,  go get em bud.    take them random numbers,  and ride off into LP history.

        you have my blessing.

        btw,  now that these people have witnessed my "talents" at keepings things honest,  since i know peoples behaviors so well,  i expect less and less "conversation"  from "them".

        why?     because "they"  know i am one that's going to make sure  they can prove.

        the fact that even less people will be lining up,  will serve to prove i was right.

        see how fast i busted out those 46 combo's?     it came to me at work,  and when i got home,  i busted those out toot suite.

        that's how people act when they "have something".

        they don't talk about it,  they throw it up ASAP

                    "i am .........."meant to"       

        P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                 until further notice,  it's  france everyday


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          Posted: July 26, 2010, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

          What I would like to see is dollar-for-dollar tests. Put it up, or shut it up. Post the picks PICS and let’s see how you do. Give 20 events to rule the point. Then let's look at the results.

          DD

            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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            Posted: July 27, 2010, 1:29 am - IP Logged

            What I would like to see is dollar-for-dollar tests. Put it up, or shut it up. Post the picks PICS and let’s see how you do. Give 20 events to rule the point. Then let's look at the results.

            DD

            not a problem

            you can ask stack if he will do it with you.   lol

            (stack is the one that keeps insisting it will take $$$$$$$  in order to "make it work")

            i do like that "put up, or shut" up thingy you mentioned.     (it always interested me that people who say that,  always seem to push people ahead of them in the line......."hey,  you go do it")

             despite bravado ad hominem continuum run amokitis you should you should you should you should,   only one person ever has.

            it took me probably 12.3 secs to gather all my QP's up.

            all 46 of them

            excuses are like systems.    everyone supposedly has one

                        "i am .........."meant to"       

            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday


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              Posted: July 27, 2010, 1:30 am - IP Logged

              Number 10,000.

              Yahoo!

              DD

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: July 27, 2010, 9:04 am - IP Logged

                What I would like to see is dollar-for-dollar tests. Put it up, or shut it up. Post the picks PICS and let’s see how you do. Give 20 events to rule the point. Then let's look at the results.

                DD

                As a premium member you have access to the complete history of every lottery in the country, that's more than enough resources to run any kind of test you want as many times as you want.

                Some members are already posting as many or more PB and MM combinations on the prediction board every drawing and their results are available for every one to see.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                  Harbinger
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                  Posted: July 27, 2010, 9:39 am - IP Logged

                  not a problem

                  you can ask stack if he will do it with you.   lol

                  (stack is the one that keeps insisting it will take $$$$$$$  in order to "make it work")

                  i do like that "put up, or shut" up thingy you mentioned.     (it always interested me that people who say that,  always seem to push people ahead of them in the line......."hey,  you go do it")

                   despite bravado ad hominem continuum run amokitis you should you should you should you should,   only one person ever has.

                  it took me probably 12.3 secs to gather all my QP's up.

                  all 46 of them

                  excuses are like systems.    everyone supposedly has one

                  We tried something similar a couple years back,  I am not fond of the DC lotttery because it is grade F RNG.

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/topic/160905

                  As you can see only one member put up.  This isn't the only time either.

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                    Posted: July 27, 2010, 9:49 am - IP Logged

                    What I would like to see is dollar-for-dollar tests. Put it up, or shut it up. Post the picks PICS and let’s see how you do. Give 20 events to rule the point. Then let's look at the results.

                    DD

                    Areyou people implying that the QPs aren't completely random? Why shouldvision have to put up money? A random number is a random number.  Itshouldn't matter which machine picked it.  There should be no need tobuy that many QPs to test this.

                      jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                      Harbinger
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                      Posted: July 27, 2010, 9:58 am - IP Logged

                      Areyou people implying that the QPs aren't completely random? Why shouldvision have to put up money? A random number is a random number.  Itshouldn't matter which machine picked it.  There should be no need tobuy that many QPs to test this.

                      Welcome to Lottery Post! I like your member name,  right off the periodic table.  Si silicon atomic #14 Bi bismuth atomic #83,  todays lucky P4 1483!  Am I close? Sunset Intl. Bible Institute?  Urdu?

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: July 27, 2010, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                        What I would like to see is dollar-for-dollar tests. Put it up, or shut it up. Post the picks PICS and let’s see how you do. Give 20 events to rule the point. Then let's look at the results.

                        DD

                        If the test was based on coverage and we tested RJ's 20 PPs over the next 10,000 drawings it would show those 20 combos having 5 wbs in every drawing because RJ used all the wbs. We already know Dude's 20 RNG picks failed to match all 5 wbs in the first test. You can't hit the jackpot without matching all 5 wbs.

                        Since the topic is about 70% to 80% of purchased QPs winning 70% to 80% of all the prizes, the only logical way to test PPs vs QPs would to purchase the QPs. There is no logical reason to test a wheel using all 56 wbs and all 46 bonus for coverage and because Dude's 20 combo RNG included the same bonus ball multiple times, we can conclude 46 purchased QPs would do the same.

                        As for testing performance if no tickets are purchased, the results are useless and I've tested purchasing 20 QPs many times and the only reason I got anything back was because I got lucky. The odds against us are terrible, but we keep trying because someone is going to get very lucky and it might be one of us.

                        Patrick mentioned Maddog's Challenges are the real tests and I agree, but I don't play them because if I happened to match all 5 numbers plus the bonus ball and not buy the tickets, there isn't a building tall enough in the world for me to jump off. And for that very reason, I'm not going to waste my time playing meaningless games with Visiondude or anybody else.

                          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                          Posted: July 27, 2010, 1:51 pm - IP Logged

                          If the test was based on coverage and we tested RJ's 20 PPs over the next 10,000 drawings it would show those 20 combos having 5 wbs in every drawing because RJ used all the wbs. We already know Dude's 20 RNG picks failed to match all 5 wbs in the first test. You can't hit the jackpot without matching all 5 wbs.

                          Since the topic is about 70% to 80% of purchased QPs winning 70% to 80% of all the prizes, the only logical way to test PPs vs QPs would to purchase the QPs. There is no logical reason to test a wheel using all 56 wbs and all 46 bonus for coverage and because Dude's 20 combo RNG included the same bonus ball multiple times, we can conclude 46 purchased QPs would do the same.

                          As for testing performance if no tickets are purchased, the results are useless and I've tested purchasing 20 QPs many times and the only reason I got anything back was because I got lucky. The odds against us are terrible, but we keep trying because someone is going to get very lucky and it might be one of us.

                          Patrick mentioned Maddog's Challenges are the real tests and I agree, but I don't play them because if I happened to match all 5 numbers plus the bonus ball and not buy the tickets, there isn't a building tall enough in the world for me to jump off. And for that very reason, I'm not going to waste my time playing meaningless games with Visiondude or anybody else.

                          "There is no logical reason to test a wheel using all 56 wbs and all 46 bonus for coverage

                          what?    first the guy says for several posts that the only way is to do it that way.     now,  because he doesn't want to do it,  he has verbage interruptus majorus

                          why do people put themselves thru integrity schizophrenia needlessly?

                           

                          Patrick mentioned Maddog's Challenges are the real tests and I agree

                          i bet you do,  stack.    "hey,  you go do it,  because i refuse".   lol

                           

                          As for testing performance if no tickets are purchased, the results are useless

                          that's a complete crock of an excuse,  and now everyone  knows it,  stack.   

                          the "picks"  have no way of knowing if there is a pile of cash behind them or not.   

                          yours obviously wouldn't,   because you don't even have any.    LOL

                           

                          "And for that very reason, I'm not going to waste my time playing meaningless games with Visiondude or anybody else".

                          you never "were" going to do anything anyway,   other than self aggrandizement postulation nation.

                          so other than reading your own "hyperBOIL",    if i were you,  i wouldn't either.

                          it's really sad,  that you are afraid of the big bad LP random generator.  lol

                           

                          this is a test of the emergency LP broadcast station.   this is only a test

                                      "i am .........."meant to"       

                          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: July 27, 2010, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

                            If the test was based on coverage and we tested RJ's 20 PPs over the next 10,000 drawings it would show those 20 combos having 5 wbs in every drawing because RJ used all the wbs. We already know Dude's 20 RNG picks failed to match all 5 wbs in the first test. You can't hit the jackpot without matching all 5 wbs.

                            Since the topic is about 70% to 80% of purchased QPs winning 70% to 80% of all the prizes, the only logical way to test PPs vs QPs would to purchase the QPs. There is no logical reason to test a wheel using all 56 wbs and all 46 bonus for coverage and because Dude's 20 combo RNG included the same bonus ball multiple times, we can conclude 46 purchased QPs would do the same.

                            As for testing performance if no tickets are purchased, the results are useless and I've tested purchasing 20 QPs many times and the only reason I got anything back was because I got lucky. The odds against us are terrible, but we keep trying because someone is going to get very lucky and it might be one of us.

                            Patrick mentioned Maddog's Challenges are the real tests and I agree, but I don't play them because if I happened to match all 5 numbers plus the bonus ball and not buy the tickets, there isn't a building tall enough in the world for me to jump off. And for that very reason, I'm not going to waste my time playing meaningless games with Visiondude or anybody else.

                            "it would show those 20 combos having 5 wbs in every drawing because RJ used all the wbs"

                            Correction:  I made an effort to cover all 59 WBs but could only cover 54 of them with the parameters I used. 

                            The distribution of the WBs would based on the last 40 drawings because that were the number of previous drawings that covered all 59 WB.  I had 20 lines because I had 20 MB.   I used 20 MB because they covered the most popular MB repeat positions and the the top most popular MBs.  That's how my system/strategy works.

                            For Wednesday drawing the distribution of the WBs will be based on the last 41 drawings because that's the number of previous drawings that covers all 59 WB.  I will play 18 lines because I have 18 MB.   I have 18 MB because they cover the most popular MB repeat positions and the the top most popular MBs. 

                            Each time I play I pick a unique group of combinations based on the most recent history of a game so comparing my picks to the next 100 drawings or more wouldn't be a fair evaluation of my system/strategy since  I do a new workup each time.

                            Even though Visiondude is only running a simulation of playing a game where he spends less than 20 seconds coming up with his QP combinations using the LP QP generator, the system players will have to spend the same amount of time picking combinations as if they were really playing which may be a lot of time they consider wasted if they aren't really playing as you point out.   Since I am actually playing or posting on the prediction board those combinations, it isn't that much extra time for me.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                              Posted: July 27, 2010, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

                              We tried something similar a couple years back,  I am not fond of the DC lotttery because it is grade F RNG.

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/topic/160905

                              As you can see only one member put up.  This isn't the only time either.

                              thanks jarasan.

                              now,  after reading about the LP generator,  i now know why stack is shirking his responsibility.

                              the LP generator is the king of "generators"  technology wise (evidently),  and he most likely knows it.    ha ha

                              a "cryptographically strong random numbers" generator.

                              man,  that sounds like the obi wan kanobi of random generators.

                              plus,  obviously "the force" is with me,  so there's that.  lol

                              shoot,  i would even let stack steer me to the minor leagues of random generators,  so i could give him another "edge"

                              one thing i don't want on my conscience,   is that guy jumping off a tall building because of me.

                              .......it's just a game

                                          "i am .........."meant to"       

                              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                                 
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