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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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Kentucky
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Posted: July 28, 2010, 12:52 am - IP Logged

Patrick mentioned Maddog's Challenges are the real tests and I agree, but I don't play them because if I happened to match all 5 numbers plus the bonus ball and not buy the tickets, there isn't a building tall enough in the world for me to jump off. And for that very reason, I'm not going to waste my time playing meaningless games with Visiondude or anybody else.

You do realize that even if you did score a 5+1 in one of Maddog's challenges there's still only a 1:3168 chance that you would have played the winning combination, don't you?  It's no worse then having all the winning numbers in a 46 lines wheel and matching 2+1 for $10 or several 2+0 and a 0+1 and getting $2.

If I played either Challenge, I'd use the 12 combo 3 if 4 wheel so I could use the four bonus balls three times; the odds against hitting the jackpot is "only" 1 in 264. I have checked the results when someone matches 3 + 1 or 3 + 0 and most of them would be covered in the wheel.

I didn't mean to imply the Challenges or predictions are meaningless, just these silly contests Visiondude is suggesting. I'm not a big fan of the "how will you spend your millions" threads either because they offer no constructive ideas of actually winning anything.

    visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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    Posted: July 28, 2010, 1:01 am - IP Logged

    If I played either Challenge, I'd use the 12 combo 3 if 4 wheel so I could use the four bonus balls three times; the odds against hitting the jackpot is "only" 1 in 264. I have checked the results when someone matches 3 + 1 or 3 + 0 and most of them would be covered in the wheel.

    I didn't mean to imply the Challenges or predictions are meaningless, just these silly contests Visiondude is suggesting. I'm not a big fan of the "how will you spend your millions" threads either because they offer no constructive ideas of actually winning anything.

    the board now knows we were all in for another ride on the stack merry-go-round,   when you started your post with...........

    "IF"

                "i am .........."meant to"       

    P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

             until further notice,  it's  france everyday

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: July 28, 2010, 1:20 am - IP Logged

      "it would show those 20 combos having 5 wbs in every drawing because RJ used all the wbs"

      Correction:  I made an effort to cover all 59 WBs but could only cover 54 of them with the parameters I used. 

      The distribution of the WBs would based on the last 40 drawings because that were the number of previous drawings that covered all 59 WB.  I had 20 lines because I had 20 MB.   I used 20 MB because they covered the most popular MB repeat positions and the the top most popular MBs.  That's how my system/strategy works.

      For Wednesday drawing the distribution of the WBs will be based on the last 41 drawings because that's the number of previous drawings that covers all 59 WB.  I will play 18 lines because I have 18 MB.   I have 18 MB because they cover the most popular MB repeat positions and the the top most popular MBs. 

      Each time I play I pick a unique group of combinations based on the most recent history of a game so comparing my picks to the next 100 drawings or more wouldn't be a fair evaluation of my system/strategy since  I do a new workup each time.

      Even though Visiondude is only running a simulation of playing a game where he spends less than 20 seconds coming up with his QP combinations using the LP QP generator, the system players will have to spend the same amount of time picking combinations as if they were really playing which may be a lot of time they consider wasted if they aren't really playing as you point out.   Since I am actually playing or posting on the prediction board those combinations, it isn't that much extra time for me.

      "Correction:  I made an effort to cover all 59 WBs but could only cover 54 of them with the parameters I used."

      What would it show in the next 10,000 drawings if you use all 59 wbs?

      When players use all 56 or 59 wbs in whatever amount of combos, they will always match all 5 wbs. If they play 46 or 39 combos, they can include all the bonus numbers too. Does it really make any difference how the wbs and bonus numbers are arranged into combos before the results are know?

      I suppose one could compare the same number of combos using a RNG, but how does that RNG compare with actually purchasing a like number of QPs? 

      Can a RNG tell prove it would be a better play and purchasing 46 or 39 QPs would be the better bet?

      And a follow up to Ridge's question, "if a RNG is the better play and must be used as PPs, shouldn't the winning percentage of PPs be higher than the percentage of PP ticket purchases?

        visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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        Posted: July 28, 2010, 1:26 am - IP Logged

        Look under members in the blue menu bar and click my image manager

        i read the instructions,  and even though they were in english, i couldn't figure out how to post a picture that i have on my computer.

        since i am computer nearly illiterate,   i couldn't figure out how to make it happen.

        none of my photos are "stored" on any other space,  nor do i think i wanna go thru the wrassle to do that.

        stack really wants to see what i look like.

        have to show him i look nothing like DIRGE VADER

        any other suggestions?

                    "i am .........."meant to"       

        P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                 until further notice,  it's  france everyday

          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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          Posted: July 28, 2010, 1:49 am - IP Logged

          "I suppose one could compare the same number of combos using a RNG, but how does that RNG compare with actually purchasing a like number of QPs? "

          despite my personal pic woes,  i  just remembered how to jack stuff off of google images.

          unlucky timing for stack,   though.

          with "me" precariously balancing on the end of stacks nose,  given his "unwillingness" (evidenced by his "im innocent look"),    i am not in danger of suffering from post traumatic myopic crosseyed nose to nose sindrome anytime soon. 

          nope,  it seems if anything........stack will continue to "see me" off into farsighted land

          maybe this is calculated. 

           stack "nose"  that the longer his nose grows,  the fainter my voice becomes

          what stack fails to realize (and completely underestimates me),  is that google has all kinds of images of cartoon characters i can jack to get back in his "ear" 

           

           

                      "i am .........."meant to"       

          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: July 28, 2010, 1:49 pm - IP Logged

            I suppose one could compare the same number of combos using a RNG, but how does that RNG compare with actually purchasing a like number of QPs? 

            Can a RNG tell prove it would be a better play and purchasing 46 or 39 QPs would be the better bet?

            QPs are generated by a RNG in a terminal, the fact that they are purchased shouldn't make them better or different than combinations generated by a free RNG.  The results of QPs are well documented, the question is whether a player with knowledge of past drawings can gain an advantage by picking his own numbers and combinations.  System players say they can but offer little more than their words as proof.  Judging from the responses in this thread, that's not going to change.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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              Posted: July 28, 2010, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

              I suppose one could compare the same number of combos using a RNG, but how does that RNG compare with actually purchasing a like number of QPs? 

              Can a RNG tell prove it would be a better play and purchasing 46 or 39 QPs would be the better bet?

              QPs are generated by a RNG in a terminal, the fact that they are purchased shouldn't make them better or different than combinations generated by a free RNG.  The results of QPs are well documented, the question is whether a player with knowledge of past drawings can gain an advantage by picking his own numbers and combinations.  System players say they can but offer little more than their words as proof.  Judging from the responses in this thread, that's not going to change.

              amen to that.

              see how that works?

               i respect honest people,  no matter how far apart we are on the "belief"  scale.

              what's also telling,  is no one (except RJ) is taking me up on my offer to continue this,  to see how it really works over time,  despite claiming what happened was most likely fluke-ish the 1st time.

              i got my finger on the LP generator button,  and it's a twitchen for some action.

              step up to the plate for kicks and giggles

              VISION

                          "i am .........."meant to"       

              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                Posted: July 28, 2010, 5:42 pm - IP Logged

                After twenty days (rdgrnr started this post July 9) and 37 pages (on my settings anyway) can we make a few observations?

                The PP'ers and the QP'ers will never convince each other their method of number selection is better.

                Many players mix them up and play both.

                Statistics tell us that there are more QP sales and thus more QP winners, the PB site even says, "Perhaps that's just a coincidence".

                Someone who only plays QP is much likely to spend less on lotto, at least on a particular game.

                For Pick 5, 6, and 5 + 1 no ,atter how many lines you play, you are most likely to hit any amount of numbers that result in no payoff, this includes not hitting anything. A lot of QP players convince themselves of this with $1, for some other players it takes a lot more than that.

                There are people who will play all the +1 numbers to make sure they "win" something, but they're not really winning anything, they're making sure they get $2 or $3 back of $46 or $39 spent.

                Even with Powerplay and Megaplier the average ticket played is still $1. If you watch the PB drawings between numbers drawn they will say, "Betty Boop won $10,000", not $40,000 or whatever the last Powerplay was.

                Truth be known if the lottery is going to give you a check for millions of dollars how you got the numbers isn't going to exactly be your first priority at that moment.

                When Frank Sinatra sang "My Way" he could not have had any idea how much it would pertain to lottery players and discussions!

                Green laugh

                Anyone remember an old Bugs Bunny and Yosemite Sam cartoon, "Draw, no you draw"?

                Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                Lep

                There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                  Posted: July 28, 2010, 6:32 pm - IP Logged

                  I suppose one could compare the same number of combos using a RNG, but how does that RNG compare with actually purchasing a like number of QPs? 

                  Can a RNG tell prove it would be a better play and purchasing 46 or 39 QPs would be the better bet?

                  QPs are generated by a RNG in a terminal, the fact that they are purchased shouldn't make them better or different than combinations generated by a free RNG.  The results of QPs are well documented, the question is whether a player with knowledge of past drawings can gain an advantage by picking his own numbers and combinations.  System players say they can but offer little more than their words as proof.  Judging from the responses in this thread, that's not going to change.

                  "To test my system I picked 25 lines using my system and 25 lines using the LP RNG"

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/180686/74

                  "Not much difference between the two."

                  Except that your system had all 5 WPS and the LP RNG didn't and your second test showed the same results. I know your goal is to eventually find a way to get the 5 WPS into the same line and that's what a system is all about. How does comparing your system to a RNG benefit your goal when a extended test will prove the RNG is hit or miss?

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                    Posted: July 28, 2010, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

                    "To test my system I picked 25 lines using my system and 25 lines using the LP RNG"

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/180686/74

                    "Not much difference between the two."

                    Except that your system had all 5 WPS and the LP RNG didn't and your second test showed the same results. I know your goal is to eventually find a way to get the 5 WPS into the same line and that's what a system is all about. How does comparing your system to a RNG benefit your goal when a extended test will prove the RNG is hit or miss?

                    How does comparing your system to a RNG benefit your goal when a extended test will prove the RNG is hit or miss?

                    It doesn't, it was just one way to compare my results to those of an independent RNG.  I've since started just tracking my results, calculating my overall win rate and comparing it with the calculated overall probability of a win which is just as good or better.  This data doesn't mean anything to the average lottery player, just to those who enjoy talking about the advantages of different ways of picking their numbers and combinations and posting them on the prediction board.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: July 28, 2010, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

                      After twenty days (rdgrnr started this post July 9) and 37 pages (on my settings anyway) can we make a few observations?

                      The PP'ers and the QP'ers will never convince each other their method of number selection is better.

                      Many players mix them up and play both.

                      Statistics tell us that there are more QP sales and thus more QP winners, the PB site even says, "Perhaps that's just a coincidence".

                      Someone who only plays QP is much likely to spend less on lotto, at least on a particular game.

                      For Pick 5, 6, and 5 + 1 no ,atter how many lines you play, you are most likely to hit any amount of numbers that result in no payoff, this includes not hitting anything. A lot of QP players convince themselves of this with $1, for some other players it takes a lot more than that.

                      There are people who will play all the +1 numbers to make sure they "win" something, but they're not really winning anything, they're making sure they get $2 or $3 back of $46 or $39 spent.

                      Even with Powerplay and Megaplier the average ticket played is still $1. If you watch the PB drawings between numbers drawn they will say, "Betty Boop won $10,000", not $40,000 or whatever the last Powerplay was.

                      Truth be known if the lottery is going to give you a check for millions of dollars how you got the numbers isn't going to exactly be your first priority at that moment.

                      When Frank Sinatra sang "My Way" he could not have had any idea how much it would pertain to lottery players and discussions!

                      Green laugh

                      Anyone remember an old Bugs Bunny and Yosemite Sam cartoon, "Draw, no you draw"?

                      Even with Powerplay and Megaplier the average ticket played is still $1.

                      synonyms average, mean, median, norm mean something that represents a middle point.

                      How can the average ticket played be only $1 if the cheapest tickets are $1?. Green laugh

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                        Posted: July 28, 2010, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

                        well,  at least I was willing to go the distance.

                        i find it also telling that all the systems players are walking away from this,  and handing me the "victory".

                        because,  unless you are willing to extract it out over time yourselfyou can't truthfullly make the claim it was only a fluke that i won.

                         

                        so,  by default (unless someone actually steps up)........i was right, 

                        ......it's purely random

                         

                        VISIONdiditoncebegladtodoitagainDUDE

                                    "i am .........."meant to"       

                        P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                 until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                          jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                          Harbinger
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                          Posted: July 28, 2010, 10:26 pm - IP Logged

                          Where I am from,.................... the FAT lady doesn't sing until the game is over.

                          6-19-24-33-36 pb 5
                          8-19-25-33-36 pb 8
                          2-24-25-33-36 pb 10
                          7-19-26-33-36 pb 21 
                          6-25-26-33-36 pb 22
                          10-19-24-25-39 pb 23
                          8-19-25-26-39  pb 5
                          2-19-24-33-39  pb 8
                          6-24-25-33-39  pb 10
                          6-19-26-33-39  pb 21
                          7-24-26-33-39  pb 22
                          2-25-26-33-39  pb 23
                          7-19-24-36-39  pb 1
                          7-10-25-36-39  pb 2
                          2-19-25-36-39  pb 3
                          8-24-25-36-39  pb 4
                          10-19-26-36-39 pb 6
                          2-7-33-36-39   pb 7
                          6-8-33-36-39   pb 9
                          10-24-33-36-39 pb 10
                          6-19-24-25-45  pb 11
                          7-19-24-26-45  pb 12
                          2-19-25-26-45  pb 13
                          7-8-24-33-45   pb 14
                          6-10-24-33-45  pb 15
                          6-8-25-33-45   pb 16
                          6-7-26-33-45   pb 17
                          8-10-26-33-45  pb 18
                          2-24-26-33-45  pb 19
                          7-10-19-36-45  pb 20
                          6-7-24-36-45   pb 24
                          2-19-24-36-45  pb 25
                          7-8-25-36-45   pb 26
                          2-10-25-36-45  pb 27
                          6-19-26-36-45  pb 28
                          2-6-33-36-45   pb 29
                          6-8-19-39-45   pb 30
                          2-7-24-39-45   pb 31
                          8-10-24-39-45  pb 32
                          2-6-25-39-45   pb 33
                          2-8-26-39-45   pb 34
                          6-10-26-39-45  pb 35
                          2-10-33-39-45  pb 36
                          7-26-36-39-45  pb 37
                          2-19-24-25-49  pb 38
                          6-19-24-26-49  pb 39

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: July 28, 2010, 10:28 pm - IP Logged

                            09-22-34-53-55  + 37
                            22-28-31-36-45  + 11
                            15-19-21-24-36  + 32
                            11-26-31-32-56  + 27
                            24-28-32-58-59  + 32
                            01-24-45-47-51  + 07
                            40-43-44-49-50  + 36
                            20-39-56-57-59  + 08
                            15-17-21-49-59  + 14
                            05-10-14-17-48  + 02
                            05-22-36-39-48  + 21
                            16-19-26-33-35  + 26
                            05-21-22-34-39  + 10
                            05-09-23-33-58  + 13
                            07-30-42-53-57  + 37
                            06-15-31-38-43  + 19
                            19-22-31-54-58  + 22
                            10-11-50-52-53  + 06
                            08-10-20-36-40  + 15
                            04-08-19-49-59  + 05
                            06-09-17-46-51  + 19
                            03-05-22-57-58  + 29
                            13-19-23-35-43  + 18
                            09-45-47-55-57  + 10
                            12-22-32-53-56  + 26
                            10-23-34-38-56  + 37
                            28-38-44-48-53  + 12
                            03-11-27-30-53  + 06
                            01-15-44-45-58  + 14
                            18-38-40-45-53  + 15
                            12-20-32-46-52  + 21
                            08-12-25-33-37  + 03
                            20-23-26-38-58  + 11
                            16-17-30-42-45  + 25
                            25-31-50-55-58  + 04
                            03-21-23-44-56  + 04
                            09-31-41-43-57  + 36
                            20-22-41-45-52  + 07
                            06-10-38-39-43  + 03
                            08-32-37-46-55  + 33
                            23-34-39-54-57  + 38
                            01-08-21-43-50  + 13
                            09-23-46-56-58  + 24
                            03-06-09-21-39  + 33
                            11-20-31-43-53  + 11

                            45 Quick Picks for Powerball
                            Generated by Lottery Post's exclusive Quick Picks Generator
                            http://www.lotterypost.com/quickpicks

                            These are the 18 lines I picked for tonight's drawing using my system/strategy.  I posted the first ten lines on the prediction board. Even though 46 lines were generated I thought it might be interesting to see the performance improvement with the extra lines before this thread dies. 

                             08 21 45 47 55    +03
                             07 10 11 31 36    +06
                             06 13 19 37 57    +10
                             18 29 32 39 49    +38
                             09 23 28 50 58    +15
                             01 12 15 40 52    +27
                             04 24 27 38 44    +09
                             02 14 16 33 53    +21
                             05 34 46 48 59    +30
                             28 34 39 40 51    +32
                             01 13 23 44 46    +37
                             09 27 30 33 49    +04
                             10 15 38 53 55    +11
                             16 24 32 36 56    +29
                             06 17 29 41 48    +05
                             22 31 42 47 59    +20
                             11 25 30 37 52    +23
                             12 22 43 45 57    +25

                            Good luck.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Harbinger
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                              Posted: July 28, 2010, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                              These are the 18 lines I picked for tonight's drawing using my system/strategy.  I posted the first ten lines on the prediction board. Even though 46 lines were generated I thought it might be interesting to see the performance improvement with the extra lines before this thread dies. 

                               08 21 45 47 55    +03
                               07 10 11 31 36    +06
                               06 13 19 37 57    +10
                               18 29 32 39 49    +38
                               09 23 28 50 58    +15
                               01 12 15 40 52    +27
                               04 24 27 38 44    +09
                               02 14 16 33 53    +21
                               05 34 46 48 59    +30
                               28 34 39 40 51    +32
                               01 13 23 44 46    +37
                               09 27 30 33 49    +04
                               10 15 38 53 55    +11
                               16 24 32 36 56    +29
                               06 17 29 41 48    +05
                               22 31 42 47 59    +20
                               11 25 30 37 52    +23
                               12 22 43 45 57    +25

                              Good luck.

                              Nice! With Borat emphasis.

                                 
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