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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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THRUST's avatar - f35l

United States
Member #88435
March 16, 2010
397 Posts
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Posted: July 23, 2010, 2:25 am - IP Logged

LOL

I feel ya!

I am going to add this below my Decepticon logo...

"GREED IS GOOD"

Thumbs Up

Someone with a "system" is...

a) Greedy and not willing to share.

b) Has a system and is too paranoid to share.

c) Has nothing and cannot share.

$1,000,000

    Avatar
    Kentucky
    United States
    Member #32652
    February 14, 2006
    7322 Posts
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    Posted: July 23, 2010, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

    i know what the original comparative was,  but you know exactly where this "debate" has evolved into - and that's providing a platform for which system players can sing the praises that "systems"  actually work.

    an apples to apples straight up comparison,  is what's going to completely tell the story as to whether or not "systems" have the ability to  "gain an edge" on any lottery game.

    the percentage of wins vs players playing their methodology as referenced in the lotteries website has no bearing on what we need to do in here, because we have pretty much established the "percentages" only reference the amounts of players playing that particular methodolgy,  vs their "win percentages".

    it's only upside down anyway,   because probably 70 - 80% of people play QP's,  not because QP's  are "better"

    what we need to do,  and what this 'apples to apples' comparison will accomplish,  is that systems either are superior,  or they are not.

    you and me.  even steven.  same number of combo's.    straight up,  and after the dust settles,  we will have a "window"  to actually look thru,  instead of you guys smearing it with cosmolene every chance you get.

    straight up.   what's so difficult about that?

    according to you,  i am under handicapping myself,  by NOT covering all the "bonus balls" out of the gate.

    uh, i don't need to.   i claim it's all random,   so i will gladly accept the "handicap".

    after all,  i live and breathe better when the odds are stacked against me.    makes my life more "believeable" after the fact.

    this "you have to buy 46 QP's"   is honestly a non sensical detour.

    i am horrible at math,  but i can guarantee you even i can come up with 46 combo's "head my of top".

    you do realize i will be using my own little melon for this,  and not anyones "random generator",  don't you?

    i will literally make up these combo's randomly on the fly,  off the top of my head.

    now,  before you think of another way to get out of it,  remember,  i have done this with other people at LP before...

    without each of us spending a sawdust nickel...

    do it quick,  before we travel another "29 pages"

    "i know what the original comparative was,  but you know exactly where this "debate" has evolved into - and that's providing a platform for which system players can sing the praises that "systems"  actually work."

    Wheels are simple tools some players use that usually have a guaranteed mathematical result. The 46 combo wheel I described is a 2 if 5 of 56 numbers and because there are 46 combos, all the bonus balls can be used. Somebody may use a sophisticated system for choosing the order the 56 numbers are placed in the wheel and with which of those combos they place the bonus ball, but their guarantee is exactly the same as entering them in any order. It's simple math, you'll get at least 1 two number match and match the bonus ball in 100% of the drawings. There is nothing to debate or no system to "sing the praises" of.

    "it's only upside down anyway,   because probably 70 - 80% of people play QP's,  not because QP's  are "better"

    Actually it says 70% to 80% of all ticket PURCHASES  are QPs. It's reasonable to assume the average wager of all players is $5 or less on QPs especially at the lower jackpot levels. If true systems players filling out playslips are PURCHASING 50 or more tickets, system and PP players would be less than 10% of all the players.

    And I'm not going to debate my assumption "just for the sake of debating".

    "i am horrible at math,  but i can guarantee you even i can come up with 46 combo's "head my of top".

    You won't get a debate from me about your usage of any of the three "R's". What you failed to read and/or understand was that I was comparing only two $46 MM ticket PURCHASES. The math you don't understand is from the MM website that gives the chances at matching the bonus ball at 1 in 75. That means on average a player would have to PURCHASE 75 QPs to hopefully guarantee matching the bonus ball. There should be no debate because it's obvious the wheel has a mathematical advantage.

    "now,  before you think of another way to get out of it,  remember,  i have done this with other people at LP before... without each of us spending a sawdust nickel..."

    Instead of giving a "yawn" at your suggestion of a pretend bet contest or a "how about that" for doing it with other LP members before, I'll just remind you if you want to test your skills, there are four FREE MM and PB Challenges held weekly in the Jackpot Forum. You can do that and I'll stand by original statement that IF a player wants to PURCHASE 46 MM tickets, they would have a mathematical advantage by choosing the 46 combo wheel over PURCHASING 46 QPs.

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19831 Posts
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      Posted: July 23, 2010, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

      I'll stand by original statement that IF a player wants to PURCHASE 46 MM tickets, they would have a mathematical advantage by choosing the 46 combo wheel over PURCHASING 46 QPs.

      That's true in the short term, but over a longer period the QP's will have the winning bonus numbers more than once to make up for the times it didn't have it and should eventually catch up so playing all 46 numbers every time will not be an advantage over time.

      However when you look at all 530 winning magaballs since MM has had it 5/56+1/46 matrix, 19 of 46 megaballs have come up 50% of the time so there's a chance that picking the bonus numbers could have out performed QP's.  The problem is identifying those numbers before the drawings and there's where observations of past drawings may help.

      Players who try this can alway check to see if they are beating the odds and if they are not, try something different.  It's not likely they would be doing worst but if they are then they've learned what not to do.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
        United States
        Member #73904
        April 28, 2009
        14903 Posts
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        Posted: July 23, 2010, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

        "i know what the original comparative was,  but you know exactly where this "debate" has evolved into - and that's providing a platform for which system players can sing the praises that "systems"  actually work."

        Wheels are simple tools some players use that usually have a guaranteed mathematical result. The 46 combo wheel I described is a 2 if 5 of 56 numbers and because there are 46 combos, all the bonus balls can be used. Somebody may use a sophisticated system for choosing the order the 56 numbers are placed in the wheel and with which of those combos they place the bonus ball, but their guarantee is exactly the same as entering them in any order. It's simple math, you'll get at least 1 two number match and match the bonus ball in 100% of the drawings. There is nothing to debate or no system to "sing the praises" of.

        "it's only upside down anyway,   because probably 70 - 80% of people play QP's,  not because QP's  are "better"

        Actually it says 70% to 80% of all ticket PURCHASES  are QPs. It's reasonable to assume the average wager of all players is $5 or less on QPs especially at the lower jackpot levels. If true systems players filling out playslips are PURCHASING 50 or more tickets, system and PP players would be less than 10% of all the players.

        And I'm not going to debate my assumption "just for the sake of debating".

        "i am horrible at math,  but i can guarantee you even i can come up with 46 combo's "head my of top".

        You won't get a debate from me about your usage of any of the three "R's". What you failed to read and/or understand was that I was comparing only two $46 MM ticket PURCHASES. The math you don't understand is from the MM website that gives the chances at matching the bonus ball at 1 in 75. That means on average a player would have to PURCHASE 75 QPs to hopefully guarantee matching the bonus ball. There should be no debate because it's obvious the wheel has a mathematical advantage.

        "now,  before you think of another way to get out of it,  remember,  i have done this with other people at LP before... without each of us spending a sawdust nickel..."

        Instead of giving a "yawn" at your suggestion of a pretend bet contest or a "how about that" for doing it with other LP members before, I'll just remind you if you want to test your skills, there are four FREE MM and PB Challenges held weekly in the Jackpot Forum. You can do that and I'll stand by original statement that IF a player wants to PURCHASE 46 MM tickets, they would have a mathematical advantage by choosing the 46 combo wheel over PURCHASING 46 QPs.

        Hi Stack,

        Sorry to interrupt your response to Vision but I sense you may have brought this to a critical juncture. As I've said before, I have no dog in this fight and I'm not advocating for either side. I play any and all ways.

        What you said that got my attention though was your last sentence that read:

        "You can do that and I'll stand by original statement that IF a player wants to PURCHASE 46 MM tickets, they would have a mathematical advantage by choosing the 46 combo wheel over PURCHASING 46 QPs."

        Are you saying that PP's outperform QP's only if used with all 46 Mega Balls covered and wheeled and then compared to 46 regular QP's?

        If so, that would then lead me to ask a question. What about the majority of people who buy 5 bucks worth of tickets or 10 bucks or 2 bucks every draw? Will your system outperform QP's in that scenario?


                                                     
                             
                                                 

         

         

         

         

                                                                                                           

        "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                    --Edmund Burke

         

         

          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
          light on my feet
          United States
          Member #356
          May 20, 2002
          2744 Posts
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          Posted: July 23, 2010, 2:30 pm - IP Logged

          a "yawn"  from you,  simply means you are unwilling to do it,  and you just wasted how many minutes typing your "excuse"?

          it's as easy as pie.     apple pie

          46 combo's from you.    46 combo's from me.

          straight up.

          the people in the MM & powerball challenges didn't state any claims to me personally like you did.

          otherwise,  i would be over there.

          you don't,  because you can't  stack.

          at least be truthful about it.

          anyone else think it "unreasonable" of me to do a 46 against 46  combo straight up comparative?

          i will do 10 straight up if "46" takes too long.

          gheesh

                      "i am .........."meant to"       

          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19831 Posts
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            Posted: July 23, 2010, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

            anyone else think it "unreasonable" of me to do a 46 against 46  combo straight up comparative?

            Vision,

            I think all Stack said if he bought 46 lines with all 46 megaballs and you bought 46 QP's, he knows for sure he will have at least a  $2 winner 0+1 and you may do better or worst but you won't know until after the drawing.  Nothing "unreasonable" about that.

            Since the overall odds of a win is 1:35, you can "reasonable" expect to do as well or better with 46 QP's.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
              light on my feet
              United States
              Member #356
              May 20, 2002
              2744 Posts
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              Posted: July 23, 2010, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

              anyone else think it "unreasonable" of me to do a 46 against 46  combo straight up comparative?

              Vision,

              I think all Stack said if he bought 46 lines with all 46 megaballs and you bought 46 QP's, he knows for sure he will have at least a  $2 winner 0+1 and you may do better or worst but you won't know until after the drawing.  Nothing "unreasonable" about that.

              Since the overall odds of a win is 1:35, you can "reasonable" expect to do as well or better with 46 QP's.

              i realize that RJ,  but what's rediculous,  is stack keeps claiming "he can't do it"  unless the tickets are "purchased".

              that's rediculous,  and just an excuse.

              we can do it right here,  with ZERO cash outlay.

              true?

              his numbers aren't going to be "offended" that weren't backed up by his wallet

                          "i am .........."meant to"       

              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19831 Posts
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                Posted: July 23, 2010, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                i realize that RJ,  but what's rediculous,  is stack keeps claiming "he can't do it"  unless the tickets are "purchased".

                that's rediculous,  and just an excuse.

                we can do it right here,  with ZERO cash outlay.

                true?

                his numbers aren't going to be "offended" that weren't backed up by his wallet

                I'm sure Stack understands probability as well as any member but I agree that simply posting 46 lines could prove both sides of the argument but what would be the point?  I'm more interested in picking 10-20 lines and averaging more wins than an equal amount of QP's which I seem to be doing lately with PB. (I'm assuming QP's will match the odds printed on the play slips)

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  four4me's avatar - gate1
                  MD
                  United States
                  Member #1701
                  June 18, 2003
                  8364 Posts
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                  Posted: July 23, 2010, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                  i realize that RJ,  but what's rediculous,  is stack keeps claiming "he can't do it"  unless the tickets are "purchased".

                  that's rediculous,  and just an excuse.

                  we can do it right here,  with ZERO cash outlay.

                  true?

                  his numbers aren't going to be "offended" that weren't backed up by his wallet

                  Neither can you if you select your numbers to play they become self picks.

                  Unless a third party with a membership uses an RNG program either Lottery posts or one on the net and selects the numbers for you.

                  Otherwise he will have to buy his self picks and you will have to purchase your quick picks.

                  Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                                 I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
                    visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                    light on my feet
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                    Posted: July 23, 2010, 11:04 pm - IP Logged

                    I'm sure Stack understands probability as well as any member but I agree that simply posting 46 lines could prove both sides of the argument but what would be the point?  I'm more interested in picking 10-20 lines and averaging more wins than an equal amount of QP's which I seem to be doing lately with PB. (I'm assuming QP's will match the odds printed on the play slips)

                    the point?   

                      it would demonstrate the visual aspect for all to see what we have been debating about for 30 pages.

                    people on the fence about this wanna see this little science experiment so bad,  it's palpable.     8,000+  views worth.

                    systems users DON'T want it to happen,  otherwise they would be lining up for it to "prove me wrong",  etc.

                    doesn't the fact that systems users don't want it to happen,  and those that are on the fence do,  tell you something?

                    it sure is obvious to me.

                    besides,  what ARE these people afraid of?     

                    it's just for fun,  right? 

                    im always down for a good time.   i can't believe it's that hard to find a dance partner when the disco balls going strong.

                    gheesh

                                "i am .........."meant to"       

                    P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                             until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                      visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                      light on my feet
                      United States
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                      May 20, 2002
                      2744 Posts
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                      Posted: July 23, 2010, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

                      Neither can you if you select your numbers to play they become self picks.

                      Unless a third party with a membership uses an RNG program either Lottery posts or one on the net and selects the numbers for you.

                      Otherwise he will have to buy his self picks and you will have to purchase your quick picks.

                      that's good by me.

                      you won't be seeing any resistence on my part to see this to fruition,  so long as it's fair,   and straight up "random" on my end.

                      now bring forth the king of systems......whomever that might be

                                  "i am .........."meant to"       

                      P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                               until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
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                        19831 Posts
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                        Posted: July 23, 2010, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

                        the point?   

                          it would demonstrate the visual aspect for all to see what we have been debating about for 30 pages.

                        people on the fence about this wanna see this little science experiment so bad,  it's palpable.     8,000+  views worth.

                        systems users DON'T want it to happen,  otherwise they would be lining up for it to "prove me wrong",  etc.

                        doesn't the fact that systems users don't want it to happen,  and those that are on the fence do,  tell you something?

                        it sure is obvious to me.

                        besides,  what ARE these people afraid of?     

                        it's just for fun,  right? 

                        im always down for a good time.   i can't believe it's that hard to find a dance partner when the disco balls going strong.

                        gheesh

                        I'm a system player and I usually pick 10-20 lines to play when I play but I never play every bonus number.  I plan to play 20 lines for Friday night PB drawings.  I usually post the first 10 lines on the prediction board but if you think it will prove something, I'll be glad to post all 20 lines in this thread before the drawing and you can pick 20 lines using the LP RNG or any other way you prefer and do the same and then you can prove your point.  If you are interested, just post 20 QP's for PB before Friday drawing.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                          light on my feet
                          United States
                          Member #356
                          May 20, 2002
                          2744 Posts
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                          Posted: July 24, 2010, 12:03 am - IP Logged

                          I'm a system player and I usually pick 10-20 lines to play when I play but I never play every bonus number.  I plan to play 20 lines for Friday night PB drawings.  I usually post the first 10 lines on the prediction board but if you think it will prove something, I'll be glad to post all 20 lines in this thread before the drawing and you can pick 20 lines using the LP RNG or any other way you prefer and do the same and then you can prove your point.  If you are interested, just post 20 QP's for PB before Friday drawing.

                          thanks rj.     you have always been one of THE most respectful,    consistent "good guys" at LP.

                          really,  all along this has been a "debate".   it's rediculous that it took some 30+pages to get this far.   it's for fun. 

                          never used this "generator" before.   hope it's as "random" as can be......JK

                          btw,  what do you want to say in my sig,    should you win ??? 

                          ********************************************************************************************

                          05-06-35-39-58  + 20
                          05-07-25-30-59  + 20
                          07-13-47-50-52  + 13
                          04-09-50-55-58  + 32
                          06-10-30-31-41  + 27
                          01-14-16-27-30  + 32
                          06-21-31-39-43  + 32
                          16-17-46-53-54  + 08
                          24-32-45-52-57  + 24
                          08-13-19-22-24  + 11
                          02-32-40-48-50  + 29
                          22-30-34-50-55  + 01
                          10-16-25-31-37  + 15
                          16-34-39-41-56  + 14
                          04-09-18-20-28  + 22
                          04-20-32-34-58  + 30
                          01-02-10-36-40  + 39
                          12-17-22-29-30  + 25
                          01-32-36-48-50  + 35
                          19-24-28-48-57  + 11

                          20 Quick Picks for Powerball
                          Generated by Lottery Post's exclusive Quick Picks Generator
                          http://www.lotterypost.com/quickpicks

                                      "i am .........."meant to"       

                          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                            Avatar
                            Kentucky
                            United States
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                            February 14, 2006
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                            Posted: July 24, 2010, 2:13 am - IP Logged

                            Hi Stack,

                            Sorry to interrupt your response to Vision but I sense you may have brought this to a critical juncture. As I've said before, I have no dog in this fight and I'm not advocating for either side. I play any and all ways.

                            What you said that got my attention though was your last sentence that read:

                            "You can do that and I'll stand by original statement that IF a player wants to PURCHASE 46 MM tickets, they would have a mathematical advantage by choosing the 46 combo wheel over PURCHASING 46 QPs."

                            Are you saying that PP's outperform QP's only if used with all 46 Mega Balls covered and wheeled and then compared to 46 regular QP's?

                            If so, that would then lead me to ask a question. What about the majority of people who buy 5 bucks worth of tickets or 10 bucks or 2 bucks every draw? Will your system outperform QP's in that scenario?

                            "Are you saying that PP's outperform QP's only if used with all 46 Mega Balls covered and wheeled and then compared to 46 regular QP's?"

                            I've heard players say "their numbers" hit when they didn't play them, but I've never heard anyone say their QPs would have hit had they bought them. We never know what will get by playing 46 QPs, but we can be pretty sure we won't have all 46 bonus numbers. The bonus number might be on 4 or 5 of the 46 QP combos or on none of them. As for performance, who can say unless we play the wheel and get 46 QPs.

                            "What about the majority of people who buy 5 bucks worth of tickets or 10 bucks or 2 bucks every draw?" 

                            That's why 70% to 80% of all ticket purchases are QPs; the average player probably won't risk $46 even when the jackpot is high. And some say it's too time consuming to fill a playslip with 10 to 20 combos. We all know the odds are terrible, but we still want our shot at the big prize. So if where talking about winning the jackpot, I'll say by using the wheel, I'd know I have a true chance of hitting it.

                            "Will your system outperform QP's in that scenario?"

                            If 46 players buy 1 ticket and each ticket had a different bonus number, the two methods would be equal. However on average 75 players must buy 1 ticket to expect to see 46 different bonus balls. The wheel is one of the pick-5 abbreviated wheels on LP and easy to use. Again performance would be difficult to gage, but can one of the 46 QPs hit the jackpot if none of them have the winning bonus number?


                              United States
                              Member #81843
                              October 31, 2009
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                              Posted: July 24, 2010, 2:24 am - IP Logged

                              I just belched but do not know how to spell it. It was quite long and varigated. Anyways, that is my response to this thread. At this given time. I can alway change my belch and it does change. Is that randomness?

                              DD

                                 
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