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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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Posted: July 17, 2010, 12:17 am - IP Logged

"it's pick3. that means it's paramutual, "

Not all P-3s in every state, are parimutuel.

i obviously didn't know that one.

thanks for schooling me.

but,  lotterytech can still pick any 'parimutuel'  (even changed my spelling on the word, basing it around yours) state,  and aim his approach at that state.

i don't want him using some excuse that he "can't",   over issues like that.

seems another malady these systems players have,  is systems being "state specific" anyway,   so this will make for an even better,  peripheral test.

not trying to be rude (just factual via common sense), but i always found it funny that lottery balls know where the state lines are,  whenever they are "traveling"

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

    four4me's avatar - gate1
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    Posted: July 17, 2010, 12:44 am - IP Logged
    There are many players on here and elsewhere who are betting at the offshore gaming palaces where the odds pay 900 to one on a pick 3 bet with as little as a 25 cent bet.... or 9000 to one on a pick 4 bet so they can use their systems across many states and play 4 numbers for a buck or whatever their pocket book can handle, they might play the same number in every state, and so on, or play different numbers in different states.

    Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                   I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
      visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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      Posted: July 17, 2010, 12:54 am - IP Logged
      There are many players on here and elsewhere who are betting at the offshore gaming palaces where the odds pay 900 to one on a pick 3 bet with as little as a 25 cent bet.... or 9000 to one on a pick 4 bet so they can use their systems across many states and play 4 numbers for a buck or whatever their pocket book can handle, they might play the same number in every state, and so on, or play different numbers in different states.

      i know all about that.

       i was just using that as another facetious joke about system players interchangeable terminology.

      the terminology is dizzying.

      the results are not.

      that was my point

                  "i am .........."meant to"       

      P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

               until further notice,  it's  france everyday

        four4me's avatar - gate1
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        Posted: July 17, 2010, 1:03 am - IP Logged

        If people cant get a straight hit at least once a month plus many boxes using powertrails they aren't using it right, its by BobP and a few other old timers on here. It's easily back tested and all one has to do is adjust the amount of history that works best for them.

         http://www.lotto-logix.com/txthouse/pwrtrails.html

        Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                       I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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          Posted: July 17, 2010, 1:24 am - IP Logged

          If people cant get a straight hit at least once a month plus many boxes using powertrails they aren't using it right, its by BobP and a few other old timers on here. It's easily back tested and all one has to do is adjust the amount of history that works best for them.

           http://www.lotto-logix.com/txthouse/pwrtrails.html

          i will go over it,  but for the sake of efficientcy....

          do you make a profit every month playing "power trails"?

          does anybody?

          month after month after month,  as in trackable consistentcy for profit?

          or is it a "hit and miss" proposition like everything else?

          the way things should be added up,  is if a system makes money every month,   for the person playing a repeatable system.

          if it doesn't,  it's no better than randomness.

          like you said......doesn't have to be a straight everytime,  just money made,  over money spent.

          that's the only platform for which a system player can brag from.

          BTW,  in the midst of all this........   i still root for people to succeed,  and not "fail"

                      "i am .........."meant to"       

          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

            four4me's avatar - gate1
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            Posted: July 17, 2010, 2:03 am - IP Logged

            I cant afford to play all the numbers this little workout generates so i do the workout and make one or two selections from it. Play my own favorite numbers and from some other excel stuff i have going on.

            powertrails helps me keep track of the numbers that are hot and cold. Many of the selections i get or got from it i put on the prediction boards.

            There have been many times the powertrails number came out but i didn't play them. powertrails isn't fool proof, no system is, it doesn't give any doubles and doubles account for about a 3rd of all the numbers that come out every month. A person who plays doubles all the time would have to get creative and make their on selections based on the hot and cold picks.

            Now profit wise is very hard to describe suppose the goal was one pick 4 straight a year then yes powertrails can do that but if your looking for more than that then you really have to fudge the history to tune it in and hope they use the same ball sets for a couple days. One month the powertrail would have made some one very happy here because 3 times a pick 4 number came up in the workout straight using the past 10 draws as the history.

            I don't play to many pick 3 numbers got the bug for pick 4 having won so many pick 3 numbers in the past got boring so i spent most of my time trying to make pick 4 happen and in the last 3 years had about 3 pick 4 straights each year some were for a buck and some were for 50 cents.

            This year i am not doing so well pick 4 wise i am stuck on some personal selections and am not playing all the numbers i should using powertrails. Which has been my undoing.

            All i can say is powertrails works but like any other system it's got good and bad days. It is not nor is it intended to be a workout that will produce a winner every time.

            Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                           I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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              Posted: July 17, 2010, 2:23 am - IP Logged

              four4me

              The system advocates here on LP don't seem to realize that not everyone is willing to throw as much $$$ at a Pick 3 or 4 as they are.

              If someone came up with something that produced just a couple of hits a month for the $1 or $2 player then there'd be a lot more interest.

              A few years ago Rick G. and a few others put up some interesting pen and paper workouts, we need some more of those.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                four4me's avatar - gate1
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                Posted: July 17, 2010, 3:36 am - IP Logged

                four4me

                The system advocates here on LP don't seem to realize that not everyone is willing to throw as much $$$ at a Pick 3 or 4 as they are.

                If someone came up with something that produced just a couple of hits a month for the $1 or $2 player then there'd be a lot more interest.

                A few years ago Rick G. and a few others put up some interesting pen and paper workouts, we need some more of those.

                Back when i was into pick 3 heavy RickG, me and a couple others did a little modifying on the powertrails selections they seemed to work out good for a lot of folks. Those post are on here somewhere.

                The whole thing in a nut shell is recognizing when that special number is going to come along.... i mean its in the workout you can see it but if you don't act on it then you loose out because it will come out when you don't play it, that number for me was 915 last month, but i got cute and looked up the number and because it came out twice straight in the last two times it was drawn i didn't play it. Big mistake.... it was one of those numbers if i hadn't of looked at it's history i would have bet 5 dollars or more straight on it because it came up in the top three numbers for several days in the powertrails workout before the number hit. I nearly blew my mind i couldn't believe i was that stupid.

                I even had it on my number play list sheet i take to the store with me. I was livid when they drew that number.

                I also do the same thing with pick 4. I get to checking the history of the numbers and make a decision whether to play certain picks or not based on how they came out in the past and when i do play it doesn't come out when i don't play it they hit. I'm in a rut right now poring more into decision making then using my honing in abilities. I honestly think i did better when i just thought about what number might come out rather then pour over the numbers and come up with a play list.

                Sun, Jun 27, 2010 Maryland Pick 3 Midday 9-1-5

                Sun, Apr 19, 2009 Maryland Pick 3 Evening 9-1-5

                Tue, Mar 17, 2009 Maryland Pick 3 Midday 9-1-5

                Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                               I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.

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                  Posted: July 17, 2010, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

                  "VISIONDUDE"

                   

                  i was asking you in a common sense fashion, to explain exactly HOW you do it, so that others watching our debate can grasp relateable ideals, instead of just random terminologies used by each individual.

                  (Total misunderstanding I WAS explaining how the method worked I didn't realise you were asking me how I put it too use SPECIFICALY anayway in my method I follow these patterns for Pos 1-2 |( LL,HL,LH,HH ) based on draw history analysis I choose one of these pattern pairs that I think is MOST likely too appear and play the number GROUP associated with it for example if I chose the Pair "LH" it would be L=0,1,2,3,4 and H=5,6,7,8,9 next I select 6-8 numbers for Pos 3 from these numbers 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 so for example I would have based on my software data analysis 0,1,4 - 5,6,9 (6 - GROUP of numbers) or 0,1,2,3 - 6,7,8,9 (8 - GROUP of numbers) the final step involves selecting my 10 filters in my software too reduce my combinations down too a more reasonable playing level. WELL that's pretty much it not hard at all as far as how I do it the only challenging part is selecting the correct Pos 1-2 Pair format.So too sum things up Pos 1-2 is L=01234 and H=56789 and Pos 3 is 014569 based on my interpretation of the draw history/software data and if my selections are correct I'm guaranteed a win by TRAPPING the winning number.You see by having MORE numbers in each position I "INCREASE" my chances of winning compared too just trying too select the EXACT 3 numbers that are drawn )

                  .

                  it's pick3. that means it's paramutual, and therefore should no one should be "unwilling" to demonstrate by examples how they do it.

                  (I'm not unwilling I said it was just a misunderstanding and I don't need VISUALS it's too simple so no need for any visuals I explained it exactly how I USE the data I provided as far as the cycles,patterns,varibles etc....so my ABOVE detailed,quick,simple explanation should suffice I DON'T need too take up 2 pages of screen like some people do my strategy isn't complicated so it's not necessary I select a GROUP of numbers for position 1 and 2 and a GROUP of numbers for position 3 remember be talking about GROUP number selection?? well my above explanation is how it works )

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: July 17, 2010, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

                    Stack47,

                    "The only guarantee is we can buy 46 tickets for $44."

                    That still smacks of this:

                    I sell everything at a loss but make up for it in volume
                    - Milo Minderbinder, Catch-22

                    Neither bet (46 QPs vs 46 combos using all the numbers with all 46 bonus numbers) is made with the intentions of losing and I'm not saying either bet is the best possible bet any MM or PB player could make. Actually the only thing I said was the later option has a better "coverage guarantee between the two options" at a guaranteed slightly lower cost and only if I was going to bet $46 on a MM drawing.

                    The percentages of 70% to 80% are based solely on PB sales and the data says "all ticket purchases" so it's useless comparing 5/39 QPs vs PPs or any other game unless we know the purchase and win percentages. Because there is no data distinguishing between the types of PPs, we can't really prove if system play is superior to any other type of PP.

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                      Posted: July 17, 2010, 6:01 pm - IP Logged

                      Stack47,

                      Re: playing all the Powerball numbers or all the Mega Ball numbers (bottom matrix) I just question those who say they do that to make sure they "win".Same mentality as betting both sides of a sporting evdent and saying, "Well I know I'm going to collect something". Sure we'd all oove to catch a middle but it doesn't happen too often.

                      I just use a 5/39 game as a guage because it's drawn everyday. In the Illinois 6/52 game last year, with three drawings a week it was only hit 11 times. Pretty weak, and that was before Powerball became available. So now in Illinois Monday night is the only night the state Pick 6 is a stand alone jackpot game. That's a good part of the reason the jackpot progression is so slow.

                      I don't know if lotteries are even required to post any QP / PP breakdown beyond tha jackpot prizes, it's a good question though.

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                        Posted: July 17, 2010, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

                        i am little slow sometimes,  because i completely missed the point coin toss made of being only "guranteed" $2 playing all bonus balls.   

                        for some reason,  i lost my mind temporarily,  and was thinking you would win all 46 with that strategy.   yikes.  my bad

                        one thing i did catch,  via coin toss's  "explanation",  is that system players are famous for "implying" a win,  but when observed more thoroughly under the statistical played out microscope,  it isn't.

                        not that you are a disingenous person on purpose,  stack.  actually,  you seem the opposite so far.   i like that.

                        i appreciate your efforts trying to explain it Thumbs Up

                        it's just that system players are notorious purveyors of "half truths" when validating "systems".

                        any non disingenous person knows a half truth is still the farthest thing away from "validation".

                        this is why i always press for hard proof.  proof people can witness live.   none of this pleathora of "theory verbage"

                        and that's why it's completely disappointing whenever i see a person run out of the room once i challenge them to a game of thier "system" vs my "random numbers",  whenever i have done that.

                        who runs away from a supposed valid position?

                        people that don't have anything in the first place.    that's who

                        if it's real,  and it works,  it's certainly easily "varifiable"

                        vision

                        "one thing i did catch,  via coin toss's  "explanation",  is that system players are famous for "implying" a win,  but when observed more thoroughly under the statistical played out microscope,  it isn't."

                        I'll keep it simple by saying I believe the wheel bet does have the potential to (over time) show a profit but since we're talking about MM where the odds are greatly against us, I won't be making that bet often enough to show any real results. And I don't like simulated bets to prove a point so I won't be posting imaginary bets either.

                        "it's just that system players are notorious purveyors of "half truths" when validating "systems".

                        I give no credibility to anyone giving a long list of numbers and suggesting "these numbers are good in all states" when they probably can't play those numbers in all states and even if they could, the cost of play exceeds the potential payoff. The common excuse is the reader is suppose to pick out their own best numbers and play them in their state and had so and so played one of the numbers in their state, they would have caught a box hit.

                        "and that's why it's completely disappointing whenever i see a person run out of the room once i challenge them to a game of thier "system" vs my "random numbers",  whenever i have done that."

                        Since the topic is PPs vs QPs and exclusive to PB and MM, the only real way to settle that debate would be for me to create a 46 combo wheel and post the tickets I bought and for you to buy 46 QPs and post those tickets too. I'm not going to risk at the very least $44 playing MM to prove a point and doubt you would risk $46 either.

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                          Posted: July 17, 2010, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

                          Stack47,

                          Re: playing all the Powerball numbers or all the Mega Ball numbers (bottom matrix) I just question those who say they do that to make sure they "win".Same mentality as betting both sides of a sporting evdent and saying, "Well I know I'm going to collect something". Sure we'd all oove to catch a middle but it doesn't happen too often.

                          I just use a 5/39 game as a guage because it's drawn everyday. In the Illinois 6/52 game last year, with three drawings a week it was only hit 11 times. Pretty weak, and that was before Powerball became available. So now in Illinois Monday night is the only night the state Pick 6 is a stand alone jackpot game. That's a good part of the reason the jackpot progression is so slow.

                          I don't know if lotteries are even required to post any QP / PP breakdown beyond tha jackpot prizes, it's a good question though.

                          I'm an old craps player so when I "buy in" for $200, I win when I "cash out" for more than $200!

                            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                            Posted: July 18, 2010, 1:16 am - IP Logged

                            I'm an old craps player so when I "buy in" for $200, I win when I "cash out" for more than $200!

                            no time today to give this the kind of attention i like to give it,   and will try tomorrow,  because i always will answer whatever is set before me.

                             

                            BTW,  DD is strangely missing.     

                             is he attending some sort of human relations tude tweaking rehab that anyone knows of?

                            hopefully he is,  and then he come come back in and act like a respectful contributor.

                            i could care less if a person i am dealing with in here has a 180degree difference in opinion,  "they" have equal right to be in here just as much as i do.

                             just don't act inhumane,  and don't dream that you can make my opinion "disappear".

                            VISION

                                        "i am .........."meant to"       

                            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                              Posted: July 18, 2010, 1:24 am - IP Logged

                              no time today to give this the kind of attention i like to give it,   and will try tomorrow,  because i always will answer whatever is set before me.

                               

                              BTW,  DD is strangely missing.     

                               is he attending some sort of human relations tude tweaking rehab that anyone knows of?

                              hopefully he is,  and then he come come back in and act like a respectful contributor.

                              i could care less if a person i am dealing with in here has a 180degree difference in opinion,  "they" have equal right to be in here just as much as i do.

                               just don't act inhumane,  and don't dream that you can make my opinion "disappear".

                              VISION

                              I think there may be a big harmonic convergence going on in the Sea-Tac area.

                              They may be contemplating their navels at this very moment.


                                                                           
                                                   
                                                                       

                               

                               

                               

                               

                                                                                                                                 

                              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke

                               

                               

                                 
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