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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
light on my feet
United States
Member #356
May 20, 2002
2744 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 26, 2010, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

 Note: rj had all 5 wbs. the random generator did not. 

The big difference is, RJ knew their results before the drawing by using all the wbs.

I really wanted to see the RNG pick all 5 numbers with the bonus number just to show how useless it was if they weren't going to actually play the combos. Had I run the 46 combo 2 if 5 of 56 number wheel, the results would have shown each of the wbs. somewhere in the 46 combos at least 3 times and at least one 2 number match. And because there are 46 combos, the results would have shown all 46 bonus balls.

"From the jarasan point of view,  and from the scientific method,  this was not conclusive. One go round ain't enough to prove anything."

If the results are know before the experiment, what is the point of having more experiments?

I watched a woman digging through her purse for change while a line was forming so she could buy one PB ticket. Don't know if she won anything or not, but if she did, she has a ticket she can cash. Lotteries don't payoff for posting a one number match plus the bonus ball on a message board.

Even if "Dude" had played the combos from the RNG, he still had to fill out playslips so it would be a PP and useless because the topic is player picks vs quick picks. When the PB website said QPs win 70% to 80% of all the drawings, it didn't mean any combos from any RNG.

all talk,  and no action

i already told you,  i will pull numbers out of the sky,  numbers that come right off the top of my head as fast as i can think of them.

numbers that have no meaning to me,  and are completely random

i will do the first "40"  from the LP quick picker,  and the rest "head my of top"

your only impressing yourself with your "knowledge".   

it's not like you are ever going to prove what you say is "true" anyway

you keep making the lamest of excuses stack.

people gravitate to doers.

people also gravitate to purveyors of bunk,  until they find out it is bunk,  then they move on to other bunk sellers.

your face time has come and gone

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
    United States
    Member #73904
    April 28, 2009
    14903 Posts
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    Posted: July 26, 2010, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

    I don't want to start another brouhaha but here's what I've gotten out of this:

    PP's are capable of outperforming QP's by having all the numbers in play (even though as shown, that edge still does not guarantee it).

    But having that many lines in play is going to cost a fortune with regular play (a lot more than most people want to spend, anyway).

    So while in theory and while playing on paper it can have it's benefits, it would seem impractical from a sound financial prospective to go that route.

    If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing worth of QP's it really doesn't bother me.

    And maybe that's what the difference is: The QP players are only buying a couple bucks worth (or $5 or $10) and on that basis alone the PP players can't compete because at that level they can't get enough numbers in play.

    Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck.

     

     

    Disclaimer: I am not an advocate or proponent of either method. I play both ways.


                                                 
                         
                                             

     

     

     

     

                                                                                                       

    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

     

     

      visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
      light on my feet
      United States
      Member #356
      May 20, 2002
      2744 Posts
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      Posted: July 26, 2010, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

      I don't want to start another brouhaha but here's what I've gotten out of this:

      PP's are capable of outperforming QP's by having all the numbers in play (even though as shown, that edge still does not guarantee it).

      But having that many lines in play is going to cost a fortune with regular play (a lot more than most people want to spend, anyway).

      So while in theory and while playing on paper it can have it's benefits, it would seem impractical from a sound financial prospective to go that route.

      If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing worth of QP's it really doesn't bother me.

      And maybe that's what the difference is: The QP players are only buying a couple bucks worth (or $5 or $10) and on that basis alone the PP players can't compete because at that level they can't get enough numbers in play.

      Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck.

       

       

      Disclaimer: I am not an advocate or proponent of either method. I play both ways.

      "Disclaimer: I am not an advocate or proponent of either method. I play both ways".

      sa---->weeet

      that just means you are "biluckual"   

                  "i am .........."meant to"       

      P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

               until further notice,  it's  france everyday

        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
        Harbinger
        D.C./MD.
        United States
        Member #44103
        July 30, 2006
        5583 Posts
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        Posted: July 26, 2010, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

        all talk,  and no action

        i already told you,  i will pull numbers out of the sky,  numbers that come right off the top of my head as fast as i can think of them.

        numbers that have no meaning to me,  and are completely random

        i will do the first "40"  from the LP quick picker,  and the rest "head my of top"

        your only impressing yourself with your "knowledge".   

        it's not like you are ever going to prove what you say is "true" anyway

        you keep making the lamest of excuses stack.

        people gravitate to doers.

        people also gravitate to purveyors of bunk,  until they find out it is bunk,  then they move on to other bunk sellers.

        your face time has come and gone

        VD the ticket must say QP next to the line,  or it ain't a QP,  that is a fact,  it isn't real, not true, no money QP'd all bunk,  stack has a valid point a random number is not a quick pick it is random pick that isn't in play.  They look like this from an earlier post:

        self picked                        quick picked notice the QP next to each line and powerball

        Tix

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19831 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 26, 2010, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

          I don't want to start another brouhaha but here's what I've gotten out of this:

          PP's are capable of outperforming QP's by having all the numbers in play (even though as shown, that edge still does not guarantee it).

          But having that many lines in play is going to cost a fortune with regular play (a lot more than most people want to spend, anyway).

          So while in theory and while playing on paper it can have it's benefits, it would seem impractical from a sound financial prospective to go that route.

          If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing worth of QP's it really doesn't bother me.

          And maybe that's what the difference is: The QP players are only buying a couple bucks worth (or $5 or $10) and on that basis alone the PP players can't compete because at that level they can't get enough numbers in play.

          Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck.

           

           

          Disclaimer: I am not an advocate or proponent of either method. I play both ways.

          If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing......

          When Todd first started the prediction board a similar argument was made for the opposite results when premium members who post 50 picks per draw didn't do as well as standard members who were limited to 10 picks per draw.

          There argument was "How can members who post 50 picks per draw do as well as those who post only 10 picks per draw and can't lose as much?".  Look at the top predictor lists, most of them are not premium members who can post lots of predictions.

          If you are calculating the amount of money won per $1 spent, it's makes no difference if a player spends $100 or $1, the better results goes to the players with the better strategy.

          I think that was what visiondude was trying to  find out.   He challenged players who claimed to have a system/strategy that gave them an advantage over QPs to compare their results with those of an equal amount of QPs and no one was interested is exposing their system/strategy to such a test.

          Not all PP(personal picks) are the results of a system/strategy, some are family birthdays, important dates and just players favorite numbers so figures about PP and QP on lottery websites could be misleading. 

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
            United States
            Member #30470
            January 17, 2006
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            Posted: July 26, 2010, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

            When you bet your mind you lose your mind.

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
              United States
              Member #30470
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              10355 Posts
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              Posted: July 26, 2010, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

              rdgrnr,

              "Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck."

              Ut oh, you used the "L" word. Circle the wagons. Set out the claymores! Dive! Dive!

              jarasan,

              Re: What is and isn't a QP. There was a thread on this once, about are there more quick picks than thought.

              Let's say you get your numbers from the QP here at LP. You chose to play those numbers, but you got them via a QP, a RNG.

              Now let's say you play with a partner and take turns buying the tickets, let's say PB. You get them on Wednesday, he or she gets them on Saturday. You've agreed to play the same numbers to avoid setting up a trust. The m.o. is whoever plays the ticekt plays a QP and then plays the secoind ticket by putting the QP numbers on a playslip. In essence the second ticket was chosen by QP even though the ticket will not say QP.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                Michigan
                United States
                Member #22395
                September 24, 2005
                1583 Posts
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                Posted: July 26, 2010, 6:24 pm - IP Logged

                rdgrnr,

                "Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck."

                Ut oh, you used the "L" word. Circle the wagons. Set out the claymores! Dive! Dive!

                jarasan,

                Re: What is and isn't a QP. There was a thread on this once, about are there more quick picks than thought.

                Let's say you get your numbers from the QP here at LP. You chose to play those numbers, but you got them via a QP, a RNG.

                Now let's say you play with a partner and take turns buying the tickets, let's say PB. You get them on Wednesday, he or she gets them on Saturday. You've agreed to play the same numbers to avoid setting up a trust. The m.o. is whoever plays the ticekt plays a QP and then plays the secoind ticket by putting the QP numbers on a playslip. In essence the second ticket was chosen by QP even though the ticket will not say QP.

                The lottery only recognizes a QP as one purchased before the game from the State Lottery Terminal that says QP on the ticket.

                How would the lottery know a QP from ANY other source?  Regardless that you might buy a QP one day and play the same numbers multiple times on your own.

                So based on the official Lottery there are 2 kinds of winners:

                1) Quick Pick winners  2) Other Winners (which could be chosen any-which-way except not run off the the lottery terminal as a QP). 

                RJ has been saying that in his posts...and I quote here:

                Not all PP(personal picks) are the results of a system/strategy, some are family birthdays, important dates and just players favorite numbers so figures about PP and QP on lottery websites could be misleading.   

                So then you have 70% playing and winning on QPs.  And 30% unknown.  That 30% isn't strictly a "system player."  They could well have chosen from a RNG, play an old QP over and over, mystical, etc;

                  jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                  Harbinger
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                  Posted: July 26, 2010, 6:38 pm - IP Logged

                  When you bet your mind you lose your mind.

                  The space cadet agrees!

                    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
                    Harbinger
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                    United States
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                    5583 Posts
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                    Posted: July 26, 2010, 6:45 pm - IP Logged

                    rdgrnr,

                    "Which would then return them to the Wheelhouse of Lady Luck."

                    Ut oh, you used the "L" word. Circle the wagons. Set out the claymores! Dive! Dive!

                    jarasan,

                    Re: What is and isn't a QP. There was a thread on this once, about are there more quick picks than thought.

                    Let's say you get your numbers from the QP here at LP. You chose to play those numbers, but you got them via a QP, a RNG.

                    Now let's say you play with a partner and take turns buying the tickets, let's say PB. You get them on Wednesday, he or she gets them on Saturday. You've agreed to play the same numbers to avoid setting up a trust. The m.o. is whoever plays the ticekt plays a QP and then plays the secoind ticket by putting the QP numbers on a playslip. In essence the second ticket was chosen by QP even though the ticket will not say QP.

                    In a court I think if it doesn't say QP on it,  it isn't,  or wouldn't be.jmo

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                      United States
                      Member #73904
                      April 28, 2009
                      14903 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: July 26, 2010, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

                      Here's the deal for me:

                      I play 2 lines every drawing on MM and PB. One line with family birthdays and a lucky number that I play all the time and one line of Quick Picks.

                      From what I've learned here, system players need to play a lot more lines than that.

                      This is a fun hobby for me, nothing more. I'm not going to start spending on it to the point it gets aggravating when I lose because that is what happens to over 99% of everybody, everytime  they buy a ticket, no matter how they come about their numbers - they lose.

                      So nothing said here will affect the way I play.

                      That's not to say I haven't learned something though.

                      I believe a system can have an advantage if you are willing to spend a lot more money, simply because you can have all the numbers in play.

                      I just don't see it having an advantage for small buck players like me, who probably comprise the majority of players.


                                                                   
                                           
                                                               

                       

                       

                       

                       

                                                                                                                         

                      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

                       

                       

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: July 26, 2010, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

                        Well said, rdgrnr, and when all is said and done the average sale is still $1.

                        true*critic, jarasan,

                        Re: what is and isn't a QP. In the example I gave with people playing partners let's say they hit for a jackpot. We know that the store is going to have the pwrson who played the ticket in surveillance, and that is going to show them getting a QP and then filling out a slip and playing the same numbers. Serial numbers of the store, the ticket, time stamp, etc.

                        So let's say they win and go to a press conference. Would the secind player have any credibility at all if they said their ticket was not a QP? Just something to think about.

                        Granted, the lottery would show it as one QP and one self-pick, but was it really?

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                          light on my feet
                          United States
                          Member #356
                          May 20, 2002
                          2744 Posts
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                          Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

                          If PP players are spending $46 per drawing or even boiling it down to $20 per drawing to win $7 or $10 or whatever and I can't beat them with $2 per drawing......

                          When Todd first started the prediction board a similar argument was made for the opposite results when premium members who post 50 picks per draw didn't do as well as standard members who were limited to 10 picks per draw.

                          There argument was "How can members who post 50 picks per draw do as well as those who post only 10 picks per draw and can't lose as much?".  Look at the top predictor lists, most of them are not premium members who can post lots of predictions.

                          If you are calculating the amount of money won per $1 spent, it's makes no difference if a player spends $100 or $1, the better results goes to the players with the better strategy.

                          I think that was what visiondude was trying to  find out.   He challenged players who claimed to have a system/strategy that gave them an advantage over QPs to compare their results with those of an equal amount of QPs and no one was interested is exposing their system/strategy to such a test.

                          Not all PP(personal picks) are the results of a system/strategy, some are family birthdays, important dates and just players favorite numbers so figures about PP and QP on lottery websites could be misleading. 

                          "I think that was what visiondude was trying to  find out.   He challenged players who claimed to have a system/strategy that gave them an advantage over QPs to compare their results with those of an equal amount of QPs and no one was interested is exposing their system/strategy to such a test".

                           thats a ................. BINGO

                           

                            trouble is RJ,  you aren't the only one that realized that a long time ago.

                          "they"  knew,   but are in the midst of compiling a book on how to excuse yourself right out of the room. 

                          my feelings are hurt, because they have underestimated my "skills",   in making sure someone owns their claims.

                          it's a sure eventuality. 

                           "if" someone is saying something they need to prove,  one talent i do possess in life is over time i can guarantee 2 things...

                          (1) either they will,  because i will create a "platform" so that they can.

                          (2)  i will demonstrate for certainty either they can't,  or they never could.

                          i will once again showcase my "talents"  in the ensuing posts.

                          after these next few posts,  "they" won't have any excuses left

                                      "i am .........."meant to"       

                          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                            Michigan
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                            September 24, 2005
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                            Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

                            Well said, rdgrnr, and when all is said and done the average sale is still $1.

                            true*critic, jarasan,

                            Re: what is and isn't a QP. In the example I gave with people playing partners let's say they hit for a jackpot. We know that the store is going to have the pwrson who played the ticket in surveillance, and that is going to show them getting a QP and then filling out a slip and playing the same numbers. Serial numbers of the store, the ticket, time stamp, etc.

                            So let's say they win and go to a press conference. Would the secind player have any credibility at all if they said their ticket was not a QP? Just something to think about.

                            Granted, the lottery would show it as one QP and one self-pick, but was it really?

                            Granted, the lottery would show it as one QP and one self-pick, but was it really?

                            Only the Shadow knows....Big Grin

                            The lottery sites are accurate for official QP sales and winners.  The balance of sales/winners have to be called "other."  There just isn't any way of knowing how those numbers were picked.

                             

                             

                             

                              visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                              light on my feet
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                              May 20, 2002
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                              Posted: July 26, 2010, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

                              09-22-34-53-55  + 37
                              22-28-31-36-45  + 11
                              15-19-21-24-36  + 32
                              11-26-31-32-56  + 27
                              24-28-32-58-59  + 32
                              01-24-45-47-51  + 07
                              40-43-44-49-50  + 36
                              20-39-56-57-59  + 08
                              15-17-21-49-59  + 14
                              05-10-14-17-48  + 02
                              05-22-36-39-48  + 21
                              16-19-26-33-35  + 26
                              05-21-22-34-39  + 10
                              05-09-23-33-58  + 13
                              07-30-42-53-57  + 37
                              06-15-31-38-43  + 19
                              19-22-31-54-58  + 22
                              10-11-50-52-53  + 06
                              08-10-20-36-40  + 15
                              04-08-19-49-59  + 05
                              06-09-17-46-51  + 19
                              03-05-22-57-58  + 29
                              13-19-23-35-43  + 18
                              09-45-47-55-57  + 10
                              12-22-32-53-56  + 26
                              10-23-34-38-56  + 37
                              28-38-44-48-53  + 12
                              03-11-27-30-53  + 06
                              01-15-44-45-58  + 14
                              18-38-40-45-53  + 15
                              12-20-32-46-52  + 21
                              08-12-25-33-37  + 03
                              20-23-26-38-58  + 11
                              16-17-30-42-45  + 25
                              25-31-50-55-58  + 04
                              03-21-23-44-56  + 04
                              09-31-41-43-57  + 36
                              20-22-41-45-52  + 07
                              06-10-38-39-43  + 03
                              08-32-37-46-55  + 33
                              23-34-39-54-57  + 38
                              01-08-21-43-50  + 13
                              09-23-46-56-58  + 24
                              03-06-09-21-39  + 33
                              11-20-31-43-53  + 11

                              45 Quick Picks for Powerball
                              Generated by Lottery Post's exclusive Quick Picks Generator
                              http://www.lotterypost.com/quickpicks

                                          "i am .........."meant to"       

                              P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                       until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                                 
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