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What is a lottery system? What distinguishes a lottery system from guesses, dreams and quick picks?

Topic closed. 918 replies. Last post 6 years ago by mayhem.

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CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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Posted: May 1, 2011, 11:17 am - IP Logged

I think a systems success will be difined by its performance against probability over the long term.  In pick 3 for example, if a system gives you 20 numbers to play every draw, and you only win 2% of all games played, then the system is only performing as good as randomness and chance should allow for and it is NOT producing results that are giving you an edge on the game. However, if you consistently win say 4% or 5% of all games played (with only 20 numbers a day which is 2%), then you would be winning twice as much as probability should allow for, in which case you could say the system is viable and gives you a winning edge. Of course, I think such a system would have to prove itself throughout entire draw histories and in multiple states.

This is a pleasant surprise, a post from you. PM me and tell me how you are doing, miss your very informant posts.

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    Posted: May 1, 2011, 11:21 am - IP Logged

    It boils down to the old debate: Mysticism  vs Statistical

    Either way: People are Playing Numbers based upon incomplete or uncertain knowledge!

    Play On! Thumbs Up

    A person who only reads the Mystical Forum could easily believe that.  Anyone taking a peek at the Math, Lottery Systems, Pick 5, Pick 3 and some others would know otherwise.  Those include a pantheon of approaches to lottery systems and lottery prediction involving math but having nothing to do with statistics.

    But I'm not at all certain what libra dave is doing every day on the Mystical Forum couldn't be called a system.

    The thread was never intended to question what makes a 'successful system'.  There aren't enough of those that anyone's aware of to need a thread.  But the range of possibilities members consider to be lottery systems has a lot of room for discussion

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: May 1, 2011, 1:39 pm - IP Logged

      I think a systems success will be difined by its performance against probability over the long term.  In pick 3 for example, if a system gives you 20 numbers to play every draw, and you only win 2% of all games played, then the system is only performing as good as randomness and chance should allow for and it is NOT producing results that are giving you an edge on the game. However, if you consistently win say 4% or 5% of all games played (with only 20 numbers a day which is 2%), then you would be winning twice as much as probability should allow for, in which case you could say the system is viable and gives you a winning edge. Of course, I think such a system would have to prove itself throughout entire draw histories and in multiple states.


      The following are the odds and payouts for Ohio Classic Lotto (6/49)

       tickets or chances per draw  1000
       possible combos of 6/49 numbers = 13983816
       MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS          EXPECTED WINNINGS
        6/6    1 : 13983816         1                        0.00       X JP
        5/6    1 : 54201            258                      0.02       X $1500    $ 0
        4/6    1 : 1032             13545                    0.97       X $70      $70
        3/6    1 : 57               246820                  17.65       X $2       $35
        ___________________________________________________________________________________
       overall odds are 1 : 53.6              18.6 total expected winners

      According to your definition, a OCL system producing more than $105 of winnings for every $1000 spent is doing better than might be expected of randomly picked combinations and should be considered doing good.  However I get the impression that many of the system players are expecting quite a bit more than that from a good system.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Thoth's avatar - binary
        Findlay, Ohio
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        Posted: May 1, 2011, 2:46 pm - IP Logged


        The following are the odds and payouts for Ohio Classic Lotto (6/49)

         tickets or chances per draw  1000
         possible combos of 6/49 numbers = 13983816
         MATCHES   ODDS              WINNING COMBOS    EXPECTED WINNERS          EXPECTED WINNINGS
          6/6    1 : 13983816         1                        0.00       X JP
          5/6    1 : 54201            258                      0.02       X $1500    $ 0
          4/6    1 : 1032             13545                    0.97       X $70      $70
          3/6    1 : 57               246820                  17.65       X $2       $35
          ___________________________________________________________________________________
         overall odds are 1 : 53.6              18.6 total expected winners

        According to your definition, a OCL system producing more than $105 of winnings for every $1000 spent is doing better than might be expected of randomly picked combinations and should be considered doing good.  However I get the impression that many of the system players are expecting quite a bit more than that from a good system.

        I don't follow OCL, or really any of the bigger games much at all. The big jackpot games only take a system to work once in order to really pay out anyways, unless you are going for multiple smaller tier wins.

        As far as pick 3 is concerned though, I'm simply suggesting that a successful system has to perform much better than what random chance would allow for. Realistically, if you played 1000 consecutive games, spending 20 dollars a draw, you would spend $20,000 and win (according to a probability of 2%) a total of $10,000: only half of what you spent over the long haul. So winning at twice the normal expected rate (4%) breaks you even and 5% puts you at a small profit.  I would expect quite a bit more myself too, but for any system to hit higher is something that I have yet to see proven...

        Also, in my opinion, a "system" is something that is more automated and used on a daily basis - unlike a strategy which may entail different approaches with differnt rules some of which may or may not be the same day after day, or even used daily at all.

        .

        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~


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          Posted: May 2, 2011, 2:31 am - IP Logged

          I don't follow OCL, or really any of the bigger games much at all. The big jackpot games only take a system to work once in order to really pay out anyways, unless you are going for multiple smaller tier wins.

          As far as pick 3 is concerned though, I'm simply suggesting that a successful system has to perform much better than what random chance would allow for. Realistically, if you played 1000 consecutive games, spending 20 dollars a draw, you would spend $20,000 and win (according to a probability of 2%) a total of $10,000: only half of what you spent over the long haul. So winning at twice the normal expected rate (4%) breaks you even and 5% puts you at a small profit.  I would expect quite a bit more myself too, but for any system to hit higher is something that I have yet to see proven...

          Also, in my opinion, a "system" is something that is more automated and used on a daily basis - unlike a strategy which may entail different approaches with differnt rules some of which may or may not be the same day after day, or even used daily at all.

          .

          "I would expect quite a bit more myself too, but for any system to hit higher is something that I have yet to see proven..."

          I have yet to see a system proven to perform beyond the normal expected rate either...

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: May 2, 2011, 7:57 am - IP Logged

            "I would expect quite a bit more myself too, but for any system to hit higher is something that I have yet to see proven..."

            I have yet to see a system proven to perform beyond the normal expected rate either...

            It's unlikely you will ever see that since the normal expected returns for pick5 and jackpots games  are ~10-20% and even twice those amounts are nothing to brag about since everyone hope is to show a profit.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Thoth's avatar - binary
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              Posted: May 2, 2011, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

              I have actually found ways to win huge profits on the P3 and P4 games, at least on paper and back testing...only problem is that they require huge bankrolls to implement....the kind of money only wealthy people could afford to gamble with. The only real way to lose in these systems is if some freakishly anomalous gap occurred between hits or the lottery officials shut down the numbers that day. Ever notice the min and max bets on each game table at the casinos? The min sets the minimum unit that you can use to double up. the max sets the amount of times you can potentially perform a double-up bet off a lose. Wiith the numbers games, no such measure is really put in place, at least up to the point when the closey that combo out.

              ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: May 2, 2011, 11:25 pm - IP Logged

                I have actually found ways to win huge profits on the P3 and P4 games, at least on paper and back testing...only problem is that they require huge bankrolls to implement....the kind of money only wealthy people could afford to gamble with. The only real way to lose in these systems is if some freakishly anomalous gap occurred between hits or the lottery officials shut down the numbers that day. Ever notice the min and max bets on each game table at the casinos? The min sets the minimum unit that you can use to double up. the max sets the amount of times you can potentially perform a double-up bet off a lose. Wiith the numbers games, no such measure is really put in place, at least up to the point when the closey that combo out.

                I've never thought of Pick3/4 games as ways to win huge profits even though I occasionally read of it happening when someone bets a huge amount on one combination and wins.  That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       


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                  Posted: May 3, 2011, 1:34 am - IP Logged

                  I've never thought of Pick3/4 games as ways to win huge profits even though I occasionally read of it happening when someone bets a huge amount on one combination and wins.  That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games.

                  Rjoh said....

                  "That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games."

                   

                  How can you attempt beating a Pick-5 game with hundreds of thousands of possibilities, when the most logical plan would be to first try beating a 1000 to 1 odds with the P-3?........ You have to crawl before you walk you know....

                  In Florida it's about 376,000 to 1 for the Fantasy Five. About 376 times harder than the P-3......Is the microphone working?....lol

                  Not to mention the big games. You might as well wish for a Genie...lol

                    time*treat's avatar - radar

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                    Posted: May 3, 2011, 2:27 am - IP Logged

                    When I was crawling around in P3, I found I could easily match 2 of 3 (which pays $0)

                    When I tried crawling around in P4, I found I was matching 3 of 4 (which also pays $0)

                    P5/JP games pay for matching all-but-one of the numbers.

                    I'd rather play the games that pay a bit when I'm "close".

                    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
                    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

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                      Posted: May 3, 2011, 8:11 am - IP Logged

                      Rjoh said....

                      "That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games."

                       

                      How can you attempt beating a Pick-5 game with hundreds of thousands of possibilities, when the most logical plan would be to first try beating a 1000 to 1 odds with the P-3?........ You have to crawl before you walk you know....

                      In Florida it's about 376,000 to 1 for the Fantasy Five. About 376 times harder than the P-3......Is the microphone working?....lol

                      Not to mention the big games. You might as well wish for a Genie...lol

                      The logic you referred to is based on a different premise than the logic Rjoh is basing his attempts on.

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                        Posted: May 3, 2011, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                        You might be right, though in the early stages of the thread math was intermittently discussed as it pertained to lottery systems.  There's no clearly defined instructional material as to where a thread should be placed and at the time of the initial posting the Math forum seemed to stand a better chance of getting the kinds of insights I was looking for. 

                        Next most appropriate would have been the Lottery Systems forum in my view.  But the Lottery Systems Forum was getting hundreds of posts daily and the Math Forum was only getting a few, mainly the bickering and sniping between a tiny handfull of members throwing snide remarks and innuendoes back and forth at one another.

                        I asked the question on Math because I was looking for thoughtful responses.  I'm happy I posted it there instead of somewhere else because I believe that's where I got the kinds of answers I was hoping for.

                        But I had no idea it would go on 59 pages with 49 of them being the type of posts I have been glad to avoid and did avoid reading for the most part.

                        This discussion keeps bouncing around between pick-3 systems and jackpot game systems and the distinction between them and chance. In pick-3 games chance is on average $500 in winnings for every $1000 bet and as RJ's chart shows, it's $105 in winnings for every $1000 bet for Ohio Classic Lotto (6/49). It's obvious it's easier to beat chance by playing this jackpot game, but it's 5 times harder to show a profit.

                        The Kentucky pick-3 pays $600 to $1 and online pick-3 games pay $900 to $1 so systems play in those games does have a better chance of showing a profit. Because there are secondary prizes in jackpot games, systems players can use the same numbers in more 2, 3, and 4 combinations to get larger payoffs than is expected by chance.

                        If you play the pick-3 numbers 000 - 249, I play 250 - 499, another player plays 500 - 749, and a fourth player plays 750 - 999, one of us is guaranteed to collect $500. If the same four players each bought 250 QPs, none of them is guaranteed to collect anything.

                        "mainly the bickering and sniping between a tiny handfull of members throwing snide remarks and innuendoes back and forth at one another."

                        Jackpot game abbreviated wheels are mathematically design to guarantee matches when the conditions are met. A system is mathematically designed to enter a group of numbers into the wheels that consistently produces enough matches to show a slight profit or a small loss that still beats chance. The arguments against suggested either the system player claimed they could beat a like number of RNG picks or the system player would continue to play the same system indefinitely even after the it fail to maintain it's consistency.

                        How many times is it necessary for a system player to say they never claimed their system could beat someone else's RNG picks or they would not use a system that didn't consistency beat chance?

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                          Posted: May 3, 2011, 11:28 am - IP Logged

                          It's unlikely you will ever see that since the normal expected returns for pick5 and jackpots games  are ~10-20% and even twice those amounts are nothing to brag about since everyone hope is to show a profit.

                          I thought people played for the jackpots and not for the $1 they are expected to get by wagering $10 on a 5/39 game. My goals using any system are to wager as little as possible for a chance to win a jackpot. I played RC5 for $20 every drawing for over six weeks at a small profit; that's almost 900 chances to hit the jackpot without spending a dime.

                          I'll never know if I had hit a jackpot playing QPs because I never asked a lottery clerk for 900 QPs and those 900 combinations were never generated by the lottery terminal. Nobody buying any RC5 tickets won a jackpot from those lottery terminals during that same time period so I probably wouldn't have either.

                          If someone has a system that averages 1 jackpot for every 45 drawings with an average return of $1 in the other 44 drawings, I'll buy it. But in the mean time if I can get 900 chances to win the jackpot for even a $50 loss, I think that's a good bet.

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                            Posted: May 3, 2011, 11:38 am - IP Logged

                            I've never thought of Pick3/4 games as ways to win huge profits even though I occasionally read of it happening when someone bets a huge amount on one combination and wins.  That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games.

                            The odds of betting $20 on a straight pick-4 number and winning $100,000 are 9999 to 1. The odds of winning a $100,000 plus jackpot for the same $20 on a 5/39 pick-5 game are 28,788 to 1.

                            Joker does have a point.

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                              Posted: May 3, 2011, 4:22 pm - IP Logged

                              Rjoh said....

                              "That's the reason I've only tried developing a winning system for the pick5 and jackpot games."

                               

                              How can you attempt beating a Pick-5 game with hundreds of thousands of possibilities, when the most logical plan would be to first try beating a 1000 to 1 odds with the P-3?........ You have to crawl before you walk you know....

                              In Florida it's about 376,000 to 1 for the Fantasy Five. About 376 times harder than the P-3......Is the microphone working?....lol

                              Not to mention the big games. You might as well wish for a Genie...lol

                              If I understand your logic, you're saying it make no sense to buy a Fantasy Five ticket which has 1:376000  odds of winning $100,000+ when you can buy a pick3 ticket which has 1:1000 odds of winning $600.  That logic probably makes more sense to you then it ever will to me because losing money trying to win $600 doesn't make as much sense to me as losing the same amount trying to win millions of dollars.  I guess that's why state offer different games with different size prizes and odds, something for everybody.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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