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Mega-millions settings and suggestions for Digit Master.

Topic closed. 380 replies. Last post 4 years ago by x1kosmic.

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RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3962 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 14, 2012, 6:04 am - IP Logged

Hi guys

Discuss setups, tips or other information for Mega millions here.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    Avatar

    United States
    Member #128373
    May 22, 2012
    201 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 14, 2012, 9:48 am - IP Logged

    Both threads look good, RL.  But what I'd really like is sort of a refresher (if it was buried in the old 118 page thread).  You and maybe a few other people (in yall's spare time, of course) create a PDF or so on how to dig deep into analysis, the recommended settings, and overall how to use the program.  Sure, I know the latter is covered in the videos and in those other PDFs, but what I'd like is basically an illustation on analysis and recommended settings.

    Videos on in-depth analysis would be better, but I'd assume that'd take much longer to do.  But the two new threads look like a good starting point (may get me to actually play with the program more).

    My 2 cents.

    The lottery is NOT a tax on the poor.  By calling it a tax, you are calling it mandatory, which is what taxes are.  But the lottery is NOT mandatory, therefore calling it a tax highly inaccurate.

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

      United States
      Member #59354
      March 13, 2008
      3962 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 14, 2012, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

      Hi guys

      Here is a little something I have been playing with.  I have been trying to find the best 6 groups to put

      into play and block the other 4.  At least 6 of the last 23 MM drawings came from groups ABCDFH. There

      are around 365,256 possible sets that can be generated from these 6 groups with TG set to 3/5.  I picked

      this set of groups at random and will be looking to see if I could improve upon it.  I may be able to find 5 

      groups that have a very high hit rate over all.  This may be a good way for those just getting started with

      dm to consider playing.  I will run more test to see if I can find a set that does better overall.  I don't like

      playing static settings but if a person could find the top 3 overall and switch them out every so often then

      it might work very well.   If playing a static set of 5 groups there are 252 possible combo's  or arrangements

      and 210 if playing 6.  This can be done on paper and making counts from the database for those interested.

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

        Avatar
        cleveland ohio
        United States
        Member #65897
        October 9, 2008
        275 Posts
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        Posted: September 15, 2012, 12:51 am - IP Logged

        RL I may be taking this wrong and forgive me its late. But isnt playing avg a bad thing overall givin the game mechanics? I am way behind on the curve, I admit that,  so forgive the dumb question if indeed it is dumb. Just trying to learn as much as I can.

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3962 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 15, 2012, 2:34 am - IP Logged

          Hi guys

          There may be a few mistakes so if something does not add up it may be a type-o.

           

          I wanted to run a few figures by you for groups that may help you decide the best way to set them.

          Recently we formed a pool for Mega millions and I asked each member to submit their top 6 groups

          from the 10 possible that they felt were most likely to show in the next draw.  The topic of this post

          is to show how using random to select values may be exploited to increase the odds of matching a

          greater percent of the groups correctly then using the historical draw history.

           

          If I choose 4 groups at random then the odds all 5 winning numbers will come from these 4 groups are

          1 in 210 for a TG=4 setup.   If I can predict the TG filter correctly and for this example I will base the calculations

          on a TG=4 play then the odds change.   There are 15 combinations of 4 in 6 so each set of 6 groups has

          15 different  ways the sets could be wheeled so that the entire set comes from 4 of these groups.  For any

          6 groups I select the expected chance that one of the sub-sets of 4 will match the drawing is 210/15=14.

           

          Lets say that I generate at random 15 sets of 6 groups then I can say with a very high level of certainty

          that one of the sets of 6 will contain the 4 correct groups.  You may be asking how this can help because

          you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

          the 6 from the second subset. 

           

          As I mentioned above that any six groups have a 1 in 14 chance of matching all 4 groups in a TG=4 draw but

          we can make a few other calculations to help decide subset #1 and subset #2 to use.  Example, lets say that

          we generate 15ea 6 group sets and calculate all the odds for each one for not only the 4 of 4 but also the 3of4

          2of4 and 1of4.   There are 120 different combinations of 3 in 10 and 4 combinations of 3 in 4 so that gives us

          the odds of  matching 3 of the correct groups for any one of the #2 subsets 1 in 30, 120/4=30.  Now from this

          we know that from a random set of any 6 groups we have a 25% chance of matching at least 3 of the 4 groups.   

          If we generate one subset of 6 of 10 then this won't help much but what if we generated 15 or so subsets of

          6 of 10.  We know that every one of these 15 subsets has a 7% chance of matching 4 of the 4 correct groups.

          and each of these subsets have a 25% chance of providing 3 of the 4 correct groups.  Some may be syaing "so

          what"  but read on.  With 15 sets of 6 groups we can be relealtivly sure that one of the 15 subsets will have 

          all 4 correct groups.  7% * 15 = 1.05 so the odds are 1 in 15. 

           

          Remember that probability would say that 25% of the 15 groups match 3 of the 4 correct groups and this is

          where we go outside the box a little.  If 25% are expected to match 3of4 and 7% are expected to match 4of4

          then 25+7=32 and 100-32=68% are expected to have less than 3.  Lets go over this a little and see where we

          stand, we have not calculated for 2of4 or 1 of 4 but and I may not get to them in this post I will try to address

          them in general. 

           

          What we now know, in 15 randomly generated sets of 6 groups each we can expect one of them to match 4of4.

          We know that of the 15 group subsets that 25% will have 3 of 4 and 68% will match 2 or less on average.   25%

          of 15 = 3.75, rounded = 4.   This means that for the 15 subsets we expected 1+4=5 of them to have at least 3

          of the 4 and the remaining 10 to each contain less than 3.   This is where it takes a little more than pen and paper.

          Next we calculate the probabilities for how many 2of4, 1of4 and 0of4.  We start with the first subset and then

          compare it to remaining 14 and see how many of each level of matches they each contain.  We do this one at a time

          selecting one subset  at a time and comparing it to the other 14.  Each single, pair, tray and quad must be extracted

          so that every possibility if covered.  The end result is a set of 4 groups that must pass every expected probability

          or it is rejected,  It will also be a combo of 4 groups that only exist in one of the 15 subsets +/_ some weight given

          to allow for deviation.   I have been rebuilding the algorithm and adjusting it for the big games but hope to have it

          finished very soon.  I am also adding the option to input a key group.  Running the program several times can give

          some very good results because it randomly generates the 15 subsets each run, random-logic at it's finest.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            Avatar
            Eugene Oregan
            United States
            Member #128629
            May 29, 2012
            419 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: September 15, 2012, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

            Hi guys

            There may be a few mistakes so if something does not add up it may be a type-o.

             

            I wanted to run a few figures by you for groups that may help you decide the best way to set them.

            Recently we formed a pool for Mega millions and I asked each member to submit their top 6 groups

            from the 10 possible that they felt were most likely to show in the next draw.  The topic of this post

            is to show how using random to select values may be exploited to increase the odds of matching a

            greater percent of the groups correctly then using the historical draw history.

             

            If I choose 4 groups at random then the odds all 5 winning numbers will come from these 4 groups are

            1 in 210 for a TG=4 setup.   If I can predict the TG filter correctly and for this example I will base the calculations

            on a TG=4 play then the odds change.   There are 15 combinations of 4 in 6 so each set of 6 groups has

            15 different  ways the sets could be wheeled so that the entire set comes from 4 of these groups.  For any

            6 groups I select the expected chance that one of the sub-sets of 4 will match the drawing is 210/15=14.

             

            Lets say that I generate at random 15 sets of 6 groups then I can say with a very high level of certainty

            that one of the sets of 6 will contain the 4 correct groups.  You may be asking how this can help because

            you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

            the 6 from the second subset. 

             

            As I mentioned above that any six groups have a 1 in 14 chance of matching all 4 groups in a TG=4 draw but

            we can make a few other calculations to help decide subset #1 and subset #2 to use.  Example, lets say that

            we generate 15ea 6 group sets and calculate all the odds for each one for not only the 4 of 4 but also the 3of4

            2of4 and 1of4.   There are 120 different combinations of 3 in 10 and 4 combinations of 3 in 4 so that gives us

            the odds of  matching 3 of the correct groups for any one of the #2 subsets 1 in 30, 120/4=30.  Now from this

            we know that from a random set of any 6 groups we have a 25% chance of matching at least 3 of the 4 groups.   

            If we generate one subset of 6 of 10 then this won't help much but what if we generated 15 or so subsets of

            6 of 10.  We know that every one of these 15 subsets has a 7% chance of matching 4 of the 4 correct groups.

            and each of these subsets have a 25% chance of providing 3 of the 4 correct groups.  Some may be syaing "so

            what"  but read on.  With 15 sets of 6 groups we can be relealtivly sure that one of the 15 subsets will have 

            all 4 correct groups.  7% * 15 = 1.05 so the odds are 1 in 15. 

             

            Remember that probability would say that 25% of the 15 groups match 3 of the 4 correct groups and this is

            where we go outside the box a little.  If 25% are expected to match 3of4 and 7% are expected to match 4of4

            then 25+7=32 and 100-32=68% are expected to have less than 3.  Lets go over this a little and see where we

            stand, we have not calculated for 2of4 or 1 of 4 but and I may not get to them in this post I will try to address

            them in general. 

             

            What we now know, in 15 randomly generated sets of 6 groups each we can expect one of them to match 4of4.

            We know that of the 15 group subsets that 25% will have 3 of 4 and 68% will match 2 or less on average.   25%

            of 15 = 3.75, rounded = 4.   This means that for the 15 subsets we expected 1+4=5 of them to have at least 3

            of the 4 and the remaining 10 to each contain less than 3.   This is where it takes a little more than pen and paper.

            Next we calculate the probabilities for how many 2of4, 1of4 and 0of4.  We start with the first subset and then

            compare it to remaining 14 and see how many of each level of matches they each contain.  We do this one at a time

            selecting one subset  at a time and comparing it to the other 14.  Each single, pair, tray and quad must be extracted

            so that every possibility if covered.  The end result is a set of 4 groups that must pass every expected probability

            or it is rejected,  It will also be a combo of 4 groups that only exist in one of the 15 subsets +/_ some weight given

            to allow for deviation.   I have been rebuilding the algorithm and adjusting it for the big games but hope to have it

            finished very soon.  I am also adding the option to input a key group.  Running the program several times can give

            some very good results because it randomly generates the 15 subsets each run, random-logic at it's finest.

            RL

            RL

            That is awesome so you are creating this function into the newest version of DM so we are going to be able to do as you have just explained.  dld

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
              Park City, UT
              United States
              Member #69864
              January 18, 2009
              993 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 15, 2012, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

              Hi guys

              There may be a few mistakes so if something does not add up it may be a type-o.

               

              I wanted to run a few figures by you for groups that may help you decide the best way to set them.

              Recently we formed a pool for Mega millions and I asked each member to submit their top 6 groups

              from the 10 possible that they felt were most likely to show in the next draw.  The topic of this post

              is to show how using random to select values may be exploited to increase the odds of matching a

              greater percent of the groups correctly then using the historical draw history.

               

              If I choose 4 groups at random then the odds all 5 winning numbers will come from these 4 groups are

              1 in 210 for a TG=4 setup.   If I can predict the TG filter correctly and for this example I will base the calculations

              on a TG=4 play then the odds change.   There are 15 combinations of 4 in 6 so each set of 6 groups has

              15 different  ways the sets could be wheeled so that the entire set comes from 4 of these groups.  For any

              6 groups I select the expected chance that one of the sub-sets of 4 will match the drawing is 210/15=14.

               

              Lets say that I generate at random 15 sets of 6 groups then I can say with a very high level of certainty

              that one of the sets of 6 will contain the 4 correct groups.  You may be asking how this can help because

              you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

              the 6 from the second subset. 

               

              As I mentioned above that any six groups have a 1 in 14 chance of matching all 4 groups in a TG=4 draw but

              we can make a few other calculations to help decide subset #1 and subset #2 to use.  Example, lets say that

              we generate 15ea 6 group sets and calculate all the odds for each one for not only the 4 of 4 but also the 3of4

              2of4 and 1of4.   There are 120 different combinations of 3 in 10 and 4 combinations of 3 in 4 so that gives us

              the odds of  matching 3 of the correct groups for any one of the #2 subsets 1 in 30, 120/4=30.  Now from this

              we know that from a random set of any 6 groups we have a 25% chance of matching at least 3 of the 4 groups.   

              If we generate one subset of 6 of 10 then this won't help much but what if we generated 15 or so subsets of

              6 of 10.  We know that every one of these 15 subsets has a 7% chance of matching 4 of the 4 correct groups.

              and each of these subsets have a 25% chance of providing 3 of the 4 correct groups.  Some may be syaing "so

              what"  but read on.  With 15 sets of 6 groups we can be relealtivly sure that one of the 15 subsets will have 

              all 4 correct groups.  7% * 15 = 1.05 so the odds are 1 in 15. 

               

              Remember that probability would say that 25% of the 15 groups match 3 of the 4 correct groups and this is

              where we go outside the box a little.  If 25% are expected to match 3of4 and 7% are expected to match 4of4

              then 25+7=32 and 100-32=68% are expected to have less than 3.  Lets go over this a little and see where we

              stand, we have not calculated for 2of4 or 1 of 4 but and I may not get to them in this post I will try to address

              them in general. 

               

              What we now know, in 15 randomly generated sets of 6 groups each we can expect one of them to match 4of4.

              We know that of the 15 group subsets that 25% will have 3 of 4 and 68% will match 2 or less on average.   25%

              of 15 = 3.75, rounded = 4.   This means that for the 15 subsets we expected 1+4=5 of them to have at least 3

              of the 4 and the remaining 10 to each contain less than 3.   This is where it takes a little more than pen and paper.

              Next we calculate the probabilities for how many 2of4, 1of4 and 0of4.  We start with the first subset and then

              compare it to remaining 14 and see how many of each level of matches they each contain.  We do this one at a time

              selecting one subset  at a time and comparing it to the other 14.  Each single, pair, tray and quad must be extracted

              so that every possibility if covered.  The end result is a set of 4 groups that must pass every expected probability

              or it is rejected,  It will also be a combo of 4 groups that only exist in one of the 15 subsets +/_ some weight given

              to allow for deviation.   I have been rebuilding the algorithm and adjusting it for the big games but hope to have it

              finished very soon.  I am also adding the option to input a key group.  Running the program several times can give

              some very good results because it randomly generates the 15 subsets each run, random-logic at it's finest.

              RL

              For MegaMillions group 10 for the most part is 0 so if you tossed it instead of treating it as an equal partner then for TG=4 there would be only 126 versus 251 unique settings.  You could not make this leap for Powerball.

              I'm looking for a MegaMillions draw in the near future to have digit 2 hit exactly twice and digit 5 to hit exactly twice.  Also digit 7 seems overly sparse in the last 2 months so I would probably play it with the 2 and 5 as a single hitter with digit 9.

              So I would play the following Digit settings for next few draws in MM

              Digit 1: 2/2 or you could play this ranged what happens in the next draw would determine how I go with this one.
              Digit 2: 2/2
              Digit 3: ranged
              Digit 4: ranged
              Digit 5: 2/2
              Digit 6: 0/0
              Digit 7: 1/1
              Digit 8: 0/0
              Digit 9: 1/1
              Digit 0: 0/0

              Jimmy

                jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                Park City, UT
                United States
                Member #69864
                January 18, 2009
                993 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 15, 2012, 10:48 pm - IP Logged

                I see you guys are focusing on groups versus digits.  I like my alternate digit representation for seeing patterns so I will mess around and see if I can come up with something similar for groups that I like.  I have alot of things to catch up on the home front in the next week so I will be in and out.  I think you have done very well so far, RL and winsum will lead the way.

                As an individual living in a non-lottery state I drive up to Idaho once every 2 weeks to play Powerball and choose numbers for the next 4 draws.  So I am more comfortable looking for a pattern that I think will hit in the next 4 draws versus for the exact next draw since that is how I currently play Powerball.

                Right now I am stuck in a huge 2+0 streak for every draw.  I need to make that breakthrough to get to 3+0 for every draw so maybe groups is what I am missing.  I also need to upgrade to the new DM version.  Good luck everybody it's good to be back!

                Jimmy

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
                  United States
                  Member #69864
                  January 18, 2009
                  993 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 16, 2012, 12:36 am - IP Logged

                  Heres a screenshot of 2012 draws for MegaMillions and filters I am looking at.  I have included the Alternate Digit representation and the Alternate Group representation in screen shot.

                   

                  Jimmy

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
                    United States
                    Member #69864
                    January 18, 2009
                    993 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 16, 2012, 12:59 am - IP Logged

                    So from above screen shot the popular 2 number groups using Alternate group representation are:

                    12 - 19 hits
                    23 - 16 hits
                    34 - 15 hits
                    78 - 15 hits
                    13 - 13 hits
                    67 - 13 hits
                    56 - 12 hits

                    I would say in general the higher hitters are consecutive groups so if you wanted to cheat random then your random choices should include some of the above in your choices.

                    Jimmy

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                      United States
                      Member #59354
                      March 13, 2008
                      3962 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 16, 2012, 5:04 am - IP Logged

                      Jim

                      I am working on programs for both digits and groups,   Both use the same format so once I build one it's easy

                      to convert it so that it works for the other.  I was beginning to think no one is reading this post or I was not

                      explaining it enough.  With the digits version I will most likely work with the non-decade digits only so a few

                      things will be adjusted.  I hope to do many test so that I can find out how often this will be expected to hit or

                      miss.  This code use to be the main core of my old bayes predictor but at this stage it was not pressed upon to

                      trap the one set it was just part of the process.   I first wrote this around 15 years ago and best I remember it

                      worked very well for what it was required to do.  Funny how things get lost over time and forgotten.  If we can

                      work out, say 70% of the groups and digits then It would be very easy to hit the 5of5's in a playable amount of

                      sets. 

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                        United States
                        Member #4924
                        June 3, 2004
                        5893 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 16, 2012, 5:22 am - IP Logged

                        I see you guys are focusing on groups versus digits.  I like my alternate digit representation for seeing patterns so I will mess around and see if I can come up with something similar for groups that I like.  I have alot of things to catch up on the home front in the next week so I will be in and out.  I think you have done very well so far, RL and winsum will lead the way.

                        As an individual living in a non-lottery state I drive up to Idaho once every 2 weeks to play Powerball and choose numbers for the next 4 draws.  So I am more comfortable looking for a pattern that I think will hit in the next 4 draws versus for the exact next draw since that is how I currently play Powerball.

                        Right now I am stuck in a huge 2+0 streak for every draw.  I need to make that breakthrough to get to 3+0 for every draw so maybe groups is what I am missing.  I also need to upgrade to the new DM version.  Good luck everybody it's good to be back!

                        Jimmy

                        jj, nice to see you around!!

                          winsumloosesum's avatar - Lottery-060.jpg
                          Pennsylvania
                          United States
                          Member #2218
                          September 1, 2003
                          5387 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 16, 2012, 7:06 am - IP Logged
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                            MA
                            United States
                            Member #89094
                            March 30, 2010
                            245 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 16, 2012, 8:43 am - IP Logged

                            Jim

                            I am working on programs for both digits and groups,   Both use the same format so once I build one it's easy

                            to convert it so that it works for the other.  I was beginning to think no one is reading this post or I was not

                            explaining it enough.  With the digits version I will most likely work with the non-decade digits only so a few

                            things will be adjusted.  I hope to do many test so that I can find out how often this will be expected to hit or

                            miss.  This code use to be the main core of my old bayes predictor but at this stage it was not pressed upon to

                            trap the one set it was just part of the process.   I first wrote this around 15 years ago and best I remember it

                            worked very well for what it was required to do.  Funny how things get lost over time and forgotten.  If we can

                            work out, say 70% of the groups and digits then It would be very easy to hit the 5of5's in a playable amount of

                            sets. 

                            RL

                            RL:

                            This sounds very interesting to say the least!

                            We hope that you can dial in the software to finally give us all an edge of this very difficult game.

                            Please keep us posted on your testing/progress as it's very interesting to see and hear how it will all work out.

                            Reagards

                            mSmiley

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                              san diego
                              United States
                              Member #68237
                              December 16, 2008
                              97 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 16, 2012, 11:32 am - IP Logged

                              Welcome back Jim! Your MM56 digit setup recommendation is awesome. I got RFW with TEMP =23 and 5of5 = 1.

                              FA

                                 
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