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Mega-millions settings and suggestions for Digit Master.

Topic closed. 380 replies. Last post 4 years ago by x1kosmic.

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Posted: September 16, 2012, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

From what I'm reading, RL, it seems that you're focusing heavily on the decades, groups, and digits and not so much on the other filters (i.e., double odd, double even, etc)?  Please explain.

The lottery is NOT a tax on the poor.  By calling it a tax, you are calling it mandatory, which is what taxes are.  But the lottery is NOT mandatory, therefore calling it a tax highly inaccurate.


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    Posted: September 16, 2012, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

    Hi guys

    There may be a few mistakes so if something does not add up it may be a type-o.

     

    I wanted to run a few figures by you for groups that may help you decide the best way to set them.

    Recently we formed a pool for Mega millions and I asked each member to submit their top 6 groups

    from the 10 possible that they felt were most likely to show in the next draw.  The topic of this post

    is to show how using random to select values may be exploited to increase the odds of matching a

    greater percent of the groups correctly then using the historical draw history.

     

    If I choose 4 groups at random then the odds all 5 winning numbers will come from these 4 groups are

    1 in 210 for a TG=4 setup.   If I can predict the TG filter correctly and for this example I will base the calculations

    on a TG=4 play then the odds change.   There are 15 combinations of 4 in 6 so each set of 6 groups has

    15 different  ways the sets could be wheeled so that the entire set comes from 4 of these groups.  For any

    6 groups I select the expected chance that one of the sub-sets of 4 will match the drawing is 210/15=14.

     

    Lets say that I generate at random 15 sets of 6 groups then I can say with a very high level of certainty

    that one of the sets of 6 will contain the 4 correct groups.  You may be asking how this can help because

    you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

    the 6 from the second subset. 

     

    As I mentioned above that any six groups have a 1 in 14 chance of matching all 4 groups in a TG=4 draw but

    we can make a few other calculations to help decide subset #1 and subset #2 to use.  Example, lets say that

    we generate 15ea 6 group sets and calculate all the odds for each one for not only the 4 of 4 but also the 3of4

    2of4 and 1of4.   There are 120 different combinations of 3 in 10 and 4 combinations of 3 in 4 so that gives us

    the odds of  matching 3 of the correct groups for any one of the #2 subsets 1 in 30, 120/4=30.  Now from this

    we know that from a random set of any 6 groups we have a 25% chance of matching at least 3 of the 4 groups.   

    If we generate one subset of 6 of 10 then this won't help much but what if we generated 15 or so subsets of

    6 of 10.  We know that every one of these 15 subsets has a 7% chance of matching 4 of the 4 correct groups.

    and each of these subsets have a 25% chance of providing 3 of the 4 correct groups.  Some may be syaing "so

    what"  but read on.  With 15 sets of 6 groups we can be relealtivly sure that one of the 15 subsets will have 

    all 4 correct groups.  7% * 15 = 1.05 so the odds are 1 in 15. 

     

    Remember that probability would say that 25% of the 15 groups match 3 of the 4 correct groups and this is

    where we go outside the box a little.  If 25% are expected to match 3of4 and 7% are expected to match 4of4

    then 25+7=32 and 100-32=68% are expected to have less than 3.  Lets go over this a little and see where we

    stand, we have not calculated for 2of4 or 1 of 4 but and I may not get to them in this post I will try to address

    them in general. 

     

    What we now know, in 15 randomly generated sets of 6 groups each we can expect one of them to match 4of4.

    We know that of the 15 group subsets that 25% will have 3 of 4 and 68% will match 2 or less on average.   25%

    of 15 = 3.75, rounded = 4.   This means that for the 15 subsets we expected 1+4=5 of them to have at least 3

    of the 4 and the remaining 10 to each contain less than 3.   This is where it takes a little more than pen and paper.

    Next we calculate the probabilities for how many 2of4, 1of4 and 0of4.  We start with the first subset and then

    compare it to remaining 14 and see how many of each level of matches they each contain.  We do this one at a time

    selecting one subset  at a time and comparing it to the other 14.  Each single, pair, tray and quad must be extracted

    so that every possibility if covered.  The end result is a set of 4 groups that must pass every expected probability

    or it is rejected,  It will also be a combo of 4 groups that only exist in one of the 15 subsets +/_ some weight given

    to allow for deviation.   I have been rebuilding the algorithm and adjusting it for the big games but hope to have it

    finished very soon.  I am also adding the option to input a key group.  Running the program several times can give

    some very good results because it randomly generates the 15 subsets each run, random-logic at it's finest.

    RL

    You may be asking how this can help because

    you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

    the 6 from the second subset


    That is in fact the very question I was asking..........

    That, and can you show me an example of a group that hit 5 of 5??

      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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      Posted: September 16, 2012, 2:04 pm - IP Logged

      Just did a group representation based on gaps and for the most part the entire group gap string did not repeat.

      So an example for the last draw the groups were:

      0021001010 which I represent as 34 79 the gaps would be 1 3 2.  It appears as a whole the gap strings are fairly unique and do not repeat.

      If you look at partial gap strings the post popular beginning gap pattern is 1 1 which means a group pattern that starts with 3 consecutive groups with 17 hits in 74 draws so far in 2012 or about 1 in every 4.35 draws.

      As a side note I know RL is doing the digit/group setup as he should to work out the kinks in his new programs.  I'm just trying to contribute to the research.

      Jimmy

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        Posted: September 16, 2012, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

        Welcome back Jim. At sometime, but not now. I would love a discussion on LEXI and how it works.

        Just do it......

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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          Posted: September 16, 2012, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

          You may be asking how this can help because

          you not only have to select the 1 out of the 15 group sets of 6 but you also have to select the correct 4 of

          the 6 from the second subset


          That is in fact the very question I was asking..........

          That, and can you show me an example of a group that hit 5 of 5??

          Ronnie

          I can't put it in a nutshell so let's say that I use a RNG to generate  a string with 6 letters  from A to j.

          I then run the RNG 15 times so that I have 15 strings all with different arrangments of 6 letters which I

          then sort so that they are in order like   A-C-E-F-I-J

          All 15 strings contain 6 letters of the possible 10 ->ABCDEFGHIJ.  If you have downloaded 

          my software you know that each of these letters repersent groups of 6 numbers each which

          is not important for what I am talking about here, the main goal is selecting the correct 3,4 or

          5 to put into play for the next draw.  Several of the strings will have several letters in common

          with other strings.  We don't know which groups will hit but using the TG filter, which stands for

          "total groups" which is the number of these groups that will provide all the numbers for the

          next draw.

          The five winning numbers for the last MM drawing came from groups C-G-H-I  with group G providing

          two of the numbers. For this example lets say we decide to play 4 groups based on the analysis of

          the TG filter.  Below is an actual run of the rng.  Each run produces different results.  I am using a draw

          that has already taken place so people can understand the idea. 

          15 randomly selected groups

          A D E F G J  =1  G
          A C F G H I  =4  C-G-H-I
          B D E F H J  =1  H
          A C E F H I  =3  C-H-I
          B D E F H J  =1  H
          C F G H I J  =4  C-G-H-I
          A B C D F H  =2  C-H
          B C D F H I  =3  C-H-I
          D E G H I J  =2  H-I
          A B D F H J  =1  H
          B C D E G H  =3  C-G-H
          A B C F H J  =2  C-H
          B E F G H I  =2  G-H-I
          E F G H I J  =3  G-H-I
          B C D F I J  =2  C-I

          We can see from the above that 2 of the random sets contained all 4 groups that showed in the

          last draw and 5 that had 3 of the groups and 4 that had 2 and 4 that had 1 correct.  These

          results are very close to the expected using the calculations on the previous page match 

                              random

          Match     Expected  sample   +/-

          4         1         2        +1

          3         4         5        +1

          <3        10        8        -2   

           

          In the above example we knew which groups to look for but when the draw has not happened yet we have

          to find a set of 4 groups that fits as close as possible all the expected values.  Before I start to

          explain how the program finds the best groups to play I want to remind everyone of something I have

          said many times.  Every 4of5 needs one wrong number so don't try to set 4 groups to play and block the

          other 6,  What we need is to put 6 into play and block the remaining 4.  This increases the lower prizes

          and also gives you room to make a few mistakes and still hit a 5of5.  Of the 6 groups we end with here

          I suggest setting no more than 3 to play on a TG=5 setup or 2 for a TG=4 setup and let the others 3 or 4

          run wild.  So for a TG=5 setup you would set 3 to (P) 3 to (W) and 4 to (B). 

          Now, how the program picks the best four to play. 

          A D E F G J
          A C F G H I
          B D E F H J
          A C E F H I
          B D E F H J
          C F G H I J
          A B C D F H
          B C D F H I
          D E G H I J
          A B D F H J
          B C D E G H
          A B C F H J
          B E F G H I
          E F G H I J
          B C D F I J

          Totals 

          A= 6 

          B= 9 

          C= 8 

          D= 9 

          E= 8 

          F=13 

          G= 7 

          H=13 

          I= 8 

          J= 9

          First we total all the times each groups exist in the random strings.  The first step is to take the top 3 or 4 groups

          in this case we find they are H-F + B, D, J so we will make 3 sub groups H-F-B, H-F-D, H-F-J. Next find in how many

          of the strings these sets of groups appear. 

          F-H-B =7

          F-H-D =5

          H-F-J  =6

          The expected number of strings to have 3 groups is 4.  All of these are above the expected number of average hits

          so they are not expected to all show in the set to be played.   In the last draw C-G-H-I were the correct groups and

          none of the above groups of 3 hit and only one of the top hitting values hit in the draw.  Almost every time the pool

          members sent in there top six choices only 1 of the overall top 3 hit.  The lottery officals use probability to calculate

          how many tickets will match each of the prizes for any draw,  what we are doing here is the same thing only in

          reverse.  It it works for them then it has to work for us, it has to be one or the other.  This is very good stuff and I

          hope everyone understands what I am saying.  If the draw is not tampered with then this logic should work in a very

          predictable way. 

          It will take too much time to do every tray of groups and sort them by the ones that fit the expected values but the

          program does this for trays, pairs and then ones.  If at the end of the process the program cannot find a set of four

          groups that fits the expected value then it checks for strings that have 4 matching groups and if it finds two or more

          that all contain 4 matching groups within another string then it replaces those strings with another randomly generated

          set. 

          Once the program is finished it may find more than one set of four groups to play which it would then try to cover all 

          of them within one string of six groups.  Remember I said I was looking for 6 groups to use in my setup.  If the process

          finds too many or too few then it starts over by generating 15 new strings and runs the process again.  Probability says

          that one of the 15 strings should contain a 4of4 so the end set must contain four groups from one of the orgional strings.

          If a match of 4 cannot be found then it starts the whole process again.   

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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            Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

            Ronnie

            I can't put it in a nutshell so let's say that I use a RNG to generate  a string with 6 letters  from A to j.

            I then run the RNG 15 times so that I have 15 strings all with different arrangments of 6 letters which I

            then sort so that they are in order like   A-C-E-F-I-J

            All 15 strings contain 6 letters of the possible 10 ->ABCDEFGHIJ.  If you have downloaded 

            my software you know that each of these letters repersent groups of 6 numbers each which

            is not important for what I am talking about here, the main goal is selecting the correct 3,4 or

            5 to put into play for the next draw.  Several of the strings will have several letters in common

            with other strings.  We don't know which groups will hit but using the TG filter, which stands for

            "total groups" which is the number of these groups that will provide all the numbers for the

            next draw.

            The five winning numbers for the last MM drawing came from groups C-G-H-I  with group G providing

            two of the numbers. For this example lets say we decide to play 4 groups based on the analysis of

            the TG filter.  Below is an actual run of the rng.  Each run produces different results.  I am using a draw

            that has already taken place so people can understand the idea. 

            15 randomly selected groups

            A D E F G J  =1  G
            A C F G H I  =4  C-G-H-I
            B D E F H J  =1  H
            A C E F H I  =3  C-H-I
            B D E F H J  =1  H
            C F G H I J  =4  C-G-H-I
            A B C D F H  =2  C-H
            B C D F H I  =3  C-H-I
            D E G H I J  =2  H-I
            A B D F H J  =1  H
            B C D E G H  =3  C-G-H
            A B C F H J  =2  C-H
            B E F G H I  =2  G-H-I
            E F G H I J  =3  G-H-I
            B C D F I J  =2  C-I

            We can see from the above that 2 of the random sets contained all 4 groups that showed in the

            last draw and 5 that had 3 of the groups and 4 that had 2 and 4 that had 1 correct.  These

            results are very close to the expected using the calculations on the previous page match 

                                random

            Match     Expected  sample   +/-

            4         1         2        +1

            3         4         5        +1

            <3        10        8        -2   

             

            In the above example we knew which groups to look for but when the draw has not happened yet we have

            to find a set of 4 groups that fits as close as possible all the expected values.  Before I start to

            explain how the program finds the best groups to play I want to remind everyone of something I have

            said many times.  Every 4of5 needs one wrong number so don't try to set 4 groups to play and block the

            other 6,  What we need is to put 6 into play and block the remaining 4.  This increases the lower prizes

            and also gives you room to make a few mistakes and still hit a 5of5.  Of the 6 groups we end with here

            I suggest setting no more than 3 to play on a TG=5 setup or 2 for a TG=4 setup and let the others 3 or 4

            run wild.  So for a TG=5 setup you would set 3 to (P) 3 to (W) and 4 to (B). 

            Now, how the program picks the best four to play. 

            A D E F G J
            A C F G H I
            B D E F H J
            A C E F H I
            B D E F H J
            C F G H I J
            A B C D F H
            B C D F H I
            D E G H I J
            A B D F H J
            B C D E G H
            A B C F H J
            B E F G H I
            E F G H I J
            B C D F I J

            Totals 

            A= 6 

            B= 9 

            C= 8 

            D= 9 

            E= 8 

            F=13 

            G= 7 

            H=13 

            I= 8 

            J= 9

            First we total all the times each groups exist in the random strings.  The first step is to take the top 3 or 4 groups

            in this case we find they are H-F + B, D, J so we will make 3 sub groups H-F-B, H-F-D, H-F-J. Next find in how many

            of the strings these sets of groups appear. 

            F-H-B =7

            F-H-D =5

            H-F-J  =6

            The expected number of strings to have 3 groups is 4.  All of these are above the expected number of average hits

            so they are not expected to all show in the set to be played.   In the last draw C-G-H-I were the correct groups and

            none of the above groups of 3 hit and only one of the top hitting values hit in the draw.  Almost every time the pool

            members sent in there top six choices only 1 of the overall top 3 hit.  The lottery officals use probability to calculate

            how many tickets will match each of the prizes for any draw,  what we are doing here is the same thing only in

            reverse.  It it works for them then it has to work for us, it has to be one or the other.  This is very good stuff and I

            hope everyone understands what I am saying.  If the draw is not tampered with then this logic should work in a very

            predictable way. 

            It will take too much time to do every tray of groups and sort them by the ones that fit the expected values but the

            program does this for trays, pairs and then ones.  If at the end of the process the program cannot find a set of four

            groups that fits the expected value then it checks for strings that have 4 matching groups and if it finds two or more

            that all contain 4 matching groups within another string then it replaces those strings with another randomly generated

            set. 

            Once the program is finished it may find more than one set of four groups to play which it would then try to cover all 

            of them within one string of six groups.  Remember I said I was looking for 6 groups to use in my setup.  If the process

            finds too many or too few then it starts over by generating 15 new strings and runs the process again.  Probability says

            that one of the 15 strings should contain a 4of4 so the end set must contain four groups from one of the orgional strings.

            If a match of 4 cannot be found then it starts the whole process again.   

            RL

            This is extremely interest RL, but again Im wondering how often you achieve 5 of 5 and how many lines are covered to achieve a 5 of 5 result??

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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              Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

              This is extremely interest RL, but again Im wondering how often you achieve 5 of 5 and how many lines are covered to achieve a 5 of 5 result??

              ronnie316

               

              I don't know if you are talking about hitting 5of5 numbers or matching 5of5 groups which is what I am discussing

              here.  can you be more specific

              rl

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                ronnie316

                 

                I don't know if you are talking about hitting 5of5 numbers or matching 5of5 groups which is what I am discussing

                here.  can you be more specific

                rl

                I apologize for not understanding your DM, its my first time talking about it.

                I only assumed that the object would be to win something playing Mega Millions. 

                The top prize needs to include all 5 winning numbers, so I assumeed that was the ultimate objective??

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                  Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:34 pm - IP Logged

                  Ronnie

                  DM is broken into several banks of filters so I took your first reply as pertaining to the groups.

                  To answer your question I have to break it into parts also.  When playing Mega millions I have

                  to say zero but I have not played much at all before we formed the pool.  If talking about my

                  state P-5 which was my game of choice before we formed the pool then I would say one time 

                  when I held the tickets in my hand but playing on paper I manage to hit 5of5's around a dozen

                  times a year on around 100 to 300 lines but have filtered them all out but one getting down to

                  my 15 line limit.  A good group and digit setup for my 5-39 will often take me down to under 100

                  lines and some days much less.  I have been working on DM for around 20 years now and most

                  of my play it's on paper.  MM is proving to be quite a bit harder but I feel I will work it out in time.

                  I have turned full time to MM since joining the pool and feel it won't be long before we start  raking

                  it in.

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                    Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:39 pm - IP Logged

                    Ronnie

                    DM is broken into several banks of filters so I took your first reply as pertaining to the groups.

                    To answer your question I have to break it into parts also.  When playing Mega millions I have

                    to say zero but I have not played much at all before we formed the pool.  If talking about my

                    state P-5 which was my game of choice before we formed the pool then I would say one time 

                    when I held the tickets in my hand but playing on paper I manage to hit 5of5's around a dozen

                    times a year on around 100 to 300 lines but have filtered them all out but one getting down to

                    my 15 line limit.  A good group and digit setup for my 5-39 will often take me down to under 100

                    lines and some days much less.  I have been working on DM for around 20 years now and most

                    of my play it's on paper.  MM is proving to be quite a bit harder but I feel I will work it out in time.

                    I have turned full time to MM since joining the pool and feel it won't be long before we start  raking

                    it in.

                    RL

                    Excellent RL, thanks for filling me in. I will stay posted.

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                      Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:51 pm - IP Logged

                      From what I'm reading, RL, it seems that you're focusing heavily on the decades, groups, and digits and not so much on the other filters (i.e., double odd, double even, etc)?  Please explain.

                      LottoPerro

                      I feel common filters are the killers of jackpots and they are used to filter my sets down to a playable

                      amount after digits and groups.  Take away the digits and groups and DM is just another run of the

                      mill software.  With my 5-39 the groups can reduce the matrix to 1024 lines or less and then the digits

                      take me down to less than 100 lines most days.  I use as few filters as I can get by with, Digits and

                      groups are the power filters and I think that to win you have to master them as much as possible.

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

                        Just did a group representation based on gaps and for the most part the entire group gap string did not repeat.

                        So an example for the last draw the groups were:

                        0021001010 which I represent as 34 79 the gaps would be 1 3 2.  It appears as a whole the gap strings are fairly unique and do not repeat.

                        If you look at partial gap strings the post popular beginning gap pattern is 1 1 which means a group pattern that starts with 3 consecutive groups with 17 hits in 74 draws so far in 2012 or about 1 in every 4.35 draws.

                        As a side note I know RL is doing the digit/group setup as he should to work out the kinks in his new programs.  I'm just trying to contribute to the research.

                        Jimmy

                        JW

                        keep posting as I read them all, you can always send me anything you feel will help out.  I am holding

                        off playing tell the cash value is at least equal to one million per member.  Might be next friday before

                        we take another shot at it.  If PB jumps up really high we might take a poke at it also.   I hope to finish

                        the new program and test it before the next draw.  I have a new DM update ready but having a few

                        test it out before sending it out to everyone in case of errors.  We did find an error in the RAC option

                        which really cut down on it's performance.

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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                          Posted: September 16, 2012, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

                          LottoPerro

                          I feel common filters are the killers of jackpots and they are used to filter my sets down to a playable

                          amount after digits and groups.  Take away the digits and groups and DM is just another run of the

                          mill software.  With my 5-39 the groups can reduce the matrix to 1024 lines or less and then the digits

                          take me down to less than 100 lines most days.  I use as few filters as I can get by with, Digits and

                          groups are the power filters and I think that to win you have to master them as much as possible.

                          RL

                          Thanks for explaining, RL.  And that makes sense, actually.  About the common filters, that is.  I'm guessing you just play with the Digits and Groups filters and leave the other ones alone for the most part?  Or use the other ones sparingly?

                          The lottery is NOT a tax on the poor.  By calling it a tax, you are calling it mandatory, which is what taxes are.  But the lottery is NOT mandatory, therefore calling it a tax highly inaccurate.

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                            Eugene Oregan
                            United States
                            Member #128629
                            May 29, 2012
                            419 Posts
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                            Posted: September 16, 2012, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

                            RL

                            Am i mistaken, but the winning groups for mm last draw were CDGI?  dld

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
                              Member #59354
                              March 13, 2008
                              3968 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 16, 2012, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

                              Thanks for explaining, RL.  And that makes sense, actually.  About the common filters, that is.  I'm guessing you just play with the Digits and Groups filters and leave the other ones alone for the most part?  Or use the other ones sparingly?

                              LP

                              Thats the way I play but it takes time to learn how they move draw to draw.  I am finding that the big

                              games are quite different than my 5-39 but I feel I am zeroing in on them a little each draw.  Hope you

                              win soon.

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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