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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?Prev TopicNext Topic
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I think ball machines should also fall into the pseudo random category, like computer rng. If you knew the parameters of the rng, the results could be predicted. If one could know every physical parameter of a ball machine, dimensions, drop angle, air flows, temperature, and physicists only know what else, the results could be predicted. Because of that, I think it's possible for patterns to develop. But if those patterns were ever strong enough to enable system players to overcome the house take, the same patterns would be plainly visible to those who study the game, and the game would be shut down or modified immediately.
I don't think ball drop machines are a perfect enough simulation of of random that the odds of each straight combination are precisely equal. But it's impossible to know the physical parameters, so we generally accept the results as random enough.
System players think through studying past patterns they gain enough insight into the workings of the machine to get an edge over the calculated odds. But such an edge must be only very slight, and not nearly enough to overcome the house take, wether 50% or even "only" 10%.
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Quote: Originally posted by ArizonaDream on Sep 25, 2016
I think ball machines should also fall into the pseudo random category, like computer rng. If you knew the parameters of the rng, the results could be predicted. If one could know every physical parameter of a ball machine, dimensions, drop angle, air flows, temperature, and physicists only know what else, the results could be predicted. Because of that, I think it's possible for patterns to develop. But if those patterns were ever strong enough to enable system players to overcome the house take, the same patterns would be plainly visible to those who study the game, and the game would be shut down or modified immediately.
I don't think ball drop machines are a perfect enough simulation of of random that the odds of each straight combination are precisely equal. But it's impossible to know the physical parameters, so we generally accept the results as random enough.
System players think through studying past patterns they gain enough insight into the workings of the machine to get an edge over the calculated odds. But such an edge must be only very slight, and not nearly enough to overcome the house take, wether 50% or even "only" 10%.
True. The odds of any good system or what not is pretty darn close to the odds of random itself. So there really isn't much of a difference. Systems only give insight into the possibilities that something is probable. And good players follow if something is more probable than something else. But the parameters to compare those odds between a good system and random, well that's another story to get into convincing one is better than the other that I won't spend time on. I'm too busy with my own systems and way of thinking you know.
It's true that if you knew the timer that the rng operates on, you could predict the combinations easily. But the amount of combinations that is produced is probably in the millions just guessing. If you were to try, you would have to let your own rng run for a rather long period of time before it would get close to the winning combination. That's why they're called pseudo random. The commission's try to make those as close to random as possible. They don't use the same timer or seed everytime so you just have to guess according to the parameters of random itself. Which is a good parameter to think about in terms of the game.
I used to think about timing the balls when they come out the machine just to see..but I never did.
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I also want to jump in and complain about the fairness of these games.
I think it is very unfair for a human to be involved in the selection process.
in a ball drop game a human pushes a button to drop the balls. there is
a period of time before another button is pushed to start the selection process.
this time varies based on human actions. there can be as much as a second difference
from one game to the next . this totally changes where any given ball is and makes the game too random.
even the computer draw states has a human start and stop the process.
this human factor just messes up the natural flow of the numbers.
if they can't be consistent within a microsecond how can I guess what the outcome will be? -
The premise of all lottery games is randomness, the' bogey man' is not the pre-test . This topic is not new, its been rehashed many times.If you think the draw process is unfair, then stop playing. In statistics, the Null hypothesis is used to validate /reject the randomness of a system, the pre-trials does that!
The probability of any set of Pick 3 remains constant for each cycle> each cycle is unique and mutually exclusive. The 1/1000 ratio does not mean ' all sets will be drawn within 1000 cycles. Every cycle starts with 1/1000 probability, certain sets will be frequent than others. The fact the draw 123 was frequent within a period does not negate the 1/1000 ratio , the set came from different cycles. Lets take the pool with the ratio 1/10, a repeat digit 2,2,2 has the same 1/10 ratio irrespective of its frequency(Your distribution percentage may change, but ratio remains constant). Someone alluded to why Bayes' concept is not been discussed, the concept apportion probabilities to changing distribution of a parameter, it does not change the prior ratio 1/1000.
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Quote: Originally posted by adobea78 on Sep 25, 2016
The premise of all lottery games is randomness, the' bogey man' is not the pre-test . This topic is not new, its been rehashed many times.If you think the draw process is unfair, then stop playing. In statistics, the Null hypothesis is used to validate /reject the randomness of a system, the pre-trials does that!
The probability of any set of Pick 3 remains constant for each cycle> each cycle is unique and mutually exclusive. The 1/1000 ratio does not mean ' all sets will be drawn within 1000 cycles. Every cycle starts with 1/1000 probability, certain sets will be frequent than others. The fact the draw 123 was frequent within a period does not negate the 1/1000 ratio , the set came from different cycles. Lets take the pool with the ratio 1/10, a repeat digit 2,2,2 has the same 1/10 ratio irrespective of its frequency(Your distribution percentage may change, but ratio remains constant). Someone alluded to why Bayes' concept is not been discussed, the concept apportion probabilities to changing distribution of a parameter, it does not change the prior ratio 1/1000.
Adobea Hello! And thank you so much for taking the time to comment as well as mentioning the Null Hypothesis. Exactly! I have learned much from you, and I respect your ideas and philosophy very much. I hope you are well today, tomorrow, and the next day after that, and so on. Much respect to you
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Quote: Originally posted by Soledad on Sep 24, 2016
Texas Lotto Pick3 Pre-Test: 9/19 Test #1 result 658
Texas Lotto Pick 3 Official Draw: 9/21 (E) 685
It doesn't seem like they're doing anything to interfere with the game to me. Like I said before they're not tampering with anything. They're just conducting business the way they feel proper. And a lot of players agree. LotteryBraker had it right, it just interferes with the timing, so that they (the Lottery) can't get taken advantage of by flaws or weaknesses that may occur, which would in essence destroy the principle of the game itself. Play the game the way it should be played.
Soledad, with respect, this is why only people that are very thorough with tracking and analysis should apply here. Let's go over what you have here and contrast it with what a few of us here have already discussed...all Texas data. First of all, you've taken the 9/19 pre-test result #1 and compared it to the official results of the 9/21 evening results for whatever reason. Since you began with the 1st day pre-test result of (658), we have to go back and analyze what took place prior to that which would be the 9/19 morning official results, and, those pre-tests. Makes sense? This works kinda like the 'Before and After' category on Jeopardy. So, next, I'll outline ALL the corresponding numbers which you left out whether purposely or not. These will be in order leading up to the (658) you began with.
9/19 Morning Test#1 - 736
9/19 Morning Test#2 - 735
9/19 Morning Test#3 - 855
9/19 Morning Test#4 - 578
9/19 Morning Official - 772 (last known draw)
9/19 Day Pre-Test#1 - 658
9/19 Day Pre-Test#2 - 017
9/19 Day Pre-Test#3 - 775
9/19 Day Pre-Test#4 - 508
9/19 Day Official - 277
Soledad, these are the numbers that matter but, since you decided to SKIP A WHOLE DAY OF (4) DRAWS ON 9/20 and went to 9/21 evening results, I can analyze that, too. A pair of 7's with a (2) won in both official draws, right? The 85X, 5X8, X58, and 5X8 combos won (4) times...twice as many times in the pre-tests, though. Beginning with the 9/19 evening pre-tests, not a single combo containing 5 and 8 showed up, buddy, and the official result was 668. Regarding your jump to 9/21 evening results of (685), which completely disappeared, that same pair of winning 7's showed up again in the first 9/21 evening pre-test as 737. Again, not a single 5 and 8 combo showed up in any of the rest of the 9/21 evening pre-tests but, then BOOM-SHAKA-LAKA!!!!!! The 9/21 evening official results are.........685. Mind you, (658) was the first 9/19 day pre-test result.
*Since I've more than thoroughly done my part here, I'd like for you, bobby623, KY Floyd, Stack47, and anyone else positioned against my logic to now prove to the rest of us that the pre-tests still do not matter or have no bearing on the official draw results. That's all I want and, you can bet your rump shaker that I'll be expecting your proof as well. Court is in recess now.
Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....
There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.
#lotto-4-a-living
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Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Sep 25, 2016
Soledad, with respect, this is why only people that are very thorough with tracking and analysis should apply here. Let's go over what you have here and contrast it with what a few of us here have already discussed...all Texas data. First of all, you've taken the 9/19 pre-test result #1 and compared it to the official results of the 9/21 evening results for whatever reason. Since you began with the 1st day pre-test result of (658), we have to go back and analyze what took place prior to that which would be the 9/19 morning official results, and, those pre-tests. Makes sense? This works kinda like the 'Before and After' category on Jeopardy. So, next, I'll outline ALL the corresponding numbers which you left out whether purposely or not. These will be in order leading up to the (658) you began with.
9/19 Morning Test#1 - 736
9/19 Morning Test#2 - 735
9/19 Morning Test#3 - 855
9/19 Morning Test#4 - 578
9/19 Morning Official - 772 (last known draw)
9/19 Day Pre-Test#1 - 658
9/19 Day Pre-Test#2 - 017
9/19 Day Pre-Test#3 - 775
9/19 Day Pre-Test#4 - 508
9/19 Day Official - 277
Soledad, these are the numbers that matter but, since you decided to SKIP A WHOLE DAY OF (4) DRAWS ON 9/20 and went to 9/21 evening results, I can analyze that, too. A pair of 7's with a (2) won in both official draws, right? The 85X, 5X8, X58, and 5X8 combos won (4) times...twice as many times in the pre-tests, though. Beginning with the 9/19 evening pre-tests, not a single combo containing 5 and 8 showed up, buddy, and the official result was 668. Regarding your jump to 9/21 evening results of (685), which completely disappeared, that same pair of winning 7's showed up again in the first 9/21 evening pre-test as 737. Again, not a single 5 and 8 combo showed up in any of the rest of the 9/21 evening pre-tests but, then BOOM-SHAKA-LAKA!!!!!! The 9/21 evening official results are.........685. Mind you, (658) was the first 9/19 day pre-test result.
*Since I've more than thoroughly done my part here, I'd like for you, bobby623, KY Floyd, Stack47, and anyone else positioned against my logic to now prove to the rest of us that the pre-tests still do not matter or have no bearing on the official draw results. That's all I want and, you can bet your rump shaker that I'll be expecting your proof as well. Court is in recess now.
Ok LL, with all due respect of course, fine if you want to make that point then that's fine for your understanding and there's nothing wrong with that. But that doesn't mean what I said is merely dismissed. It doesn't matter if I skipped 3 test-draws. It doesn't matter at all. The point I was making is that the pre-tests will only delay a number from coming out. If you think 658 or any other number was gonna come out today, and it comes out in 2 days. We're you still right? Yes, because it did come out. That was my point. I don't see why you didn't understand that. Obviously this is not true for every single number that comes out in a pre-test, but you're saying that you understand how the game should happen in your mind. How do you understand the principle of the game? As random correct? Well, random does not follow any set ordered guidelines. It follows random.Well then how are saying with 100% certainty that the test-draws interfere with the results. I just showed you an example where they did not. And look at the double 77s too, coming out 3 times? Come on LL, I was expecting more of an open mind.
Boy, you had me worried for a second. I was waiting and even bought a coffee for $2 that had the possibility of being worth $1000, lol
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Quote: Originally posted by Soledad on Sep 25, 2016
Ok LL, with all due respect of course, fine if you want to make that point then that's fine for your understanding and there's nothing wrong with that. But that doesn't mean what I said is merely dismissed. It doesn't matter if I skipped 3 test-draws. It doesn't matter at all. The point I was making is that the pre-tests will only delay a number from coming out. If you think 658 or any other number was gonna come out today, and it comes out in 2 days. We're you still right? Yes, because it did come out. That was my point. I don't see why you didn't understand that. Obviously this is not true for every single number that comes out in a pre-test, but you're saying that you understand how the game should happen in your mind. How do you understand the principle of the game? As random correct? Well, random does not follow any set ordered guidelines. It follows random.Well then how are saying with 100% certainty that the test-draws interfere with the results. I just showed you an example where they did not. And look at the double 77s too, coming out 3 times? Come on LL, I was expecting more of an open mind.
Boy, you had me worried for a second. I was waiting and even bought a coffee for $2 that had the possibility of being worth $1000, lol
All you did was show that a number in a pre test showed a couple of days later. Well, that's not the norm because there are 1,000 possible outcomes, so it's not likely to happen often. All you did was show a fluke as your example? C'mon now..
The norm is someone who's tracking a overdue number, let's say in the first position, number 5. That 5 may show up multiple times in the pretests, and now this poor schmuck who's been studying the trends is spending his hard earned money to make a profit, loses his ass off because the 5 is no longer trending. He scratches his head, but continues to play for a few more days. After 3 or 4 days, this poor soul Joe Schmuckaroo gives up.
Guess what happens next, two days after he stops playing and works on the next trend, the 5 shows up, and he throws his laptop against the wall. BTW, he was playing 10 dollars straight every draw before he stopped playing !!!!
So now he's working on the new trend that probably won't show within his budgeted time frame, meanwhile, between the officials man handling the machines, Joe schmo wracking his brains out, one hand is doing this while the officials are doing the Charleston Two Step with the machines, pulling the rug out of joe's feet, joe tries to double flip this, and the officials are doing back flips, while joe is jumping thru another hoop..etc...it's like a cruel circus act full of clowns juggling and doing splits while riding on a Tiger's back in the Arctic.
It's a freaking joke. !!!
And you call this random? When the same number shows up a few times in a row during the pre test, they discard that ball set and use another one, but when the official draws contain the same number a few times consecutively, it's okay?
The new Florida Pick-2 game. Yeah, that's random, MY ASS !
Sept. 16 eve-01
Sept. 17 eve-04
Sept. 18 eve-50
Sept. 19 eve-60
Sept. 20 eve-20
Sept. 21 eve-70
Sept. 22 mid-70
Sept. 23 mid-70
The reason for all those zeros is BECAUSE of pre testing. They're essentially going full circle, when in reality, If no tests were done, there would be huge gaps in between those zeros, with other numbers. Not saying this isn't possible even If they didn't tamper, but the above happens in different forms too often.
Random my ASS !!!!
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I didn't call it the norm. You're assuming I'm calling it that. I'm just giving an example where the same number albeit box combination came out regardless of the pre-test. That seems random to me and contrary to what everyone here is trying to say. And LuckyLoser even added another example where a doubles pair showed up 3 times. Aren't doubles supposed to lag?
Look yes of course I sympathize with poor schmuckeroo, I have been that poor schmuckeroo. This was just an example, I'm sure there are others, but why should I look for them. They have no impact on how I play, because I don't need them to play.
The game is still random, and the last draw or even the last two draws can for the most part give you at least 1 sometimes 2 digits to work with. That's random. Yes ok, you showed 0 appearing 6 times in the same position. Can you show me another time when that occured? And I'm not really asking you to show me, all I'm saying is that that shouldn't be considered the norm either. That's just one example as well. There is no norm in random. You're assuming the game should be played according to how you think and feel it should be. That's not random. I have seen the 8 show in the first position on pick3 NY one time 5 times in a row. I have never seen any other digit do that again for the past 5 years. It's still random in the overall picture. Repeating digits happen more than one would think they do. Yes it's very hard to get it right. Trust me I know.
LotteryBraker used to talk about pre-tests a lot to everybody who wouldn't listen. And he said all they do is cause a lag in the numbers that you think are 'supposed' to come out. And that the State Commission does these things so that they cant be taken advantage of and the game can't be called a farce. So if you know this then be prepared for it so that you have a better chance to win. I mean in the end it keeps the game firmly established. Which is what the majority of players want as well as the Commission, because not every player has the time to track a long overdue digit.
And Amber123 thank you so much for not calling me any names. I appreciate that. We all have important things we need to think about.
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For Lucky Loser
No need to keep repeating all of these posts!
My response to your challenge? will be delayed.
As you know, Texas has 4 drawings per day.
I play the Evening drawing, using only the trend data for previous Day drawings.
I have a Substitution workout with Gap Strategy, so, our analysis won't be in the same ballpark, so to speak.
As I've indicated previously, I do not pay any attention whatever to the pre-tests.
Think about it - there are 4 pre-tests and the official = 5 outcomes per drawing.
That means there are 15 permutations I do not track = the previous Eve, Night and Morning.
After I process the next Day results for my Eve plays, I'll post them here.
It's possible that one or more of my choices will have arrived in any of the 3 drawings that are not processed, but that's called - GAMBLING!
If you are tracking all of the drawings your choices will, of course, be different from mine.
Let's see what happens!! -
Quote: Originally posted by Soledad on Sep 25, 2016
I didn't call it the norm. You're assuming I'm calling it that. I'm just giving an example where the same number albeit box combination came out regardless of the pre-test. That seems random to me and contrary to what everyone here is trying to say. And LuckyLoser even added another example where a doubles pair showed up 3 times. Aren't doubles supposed to lag?
Look yes of course I sympathize with poor schmuckeroo, I have been that poor schmuckeroo. This was just an example, I'm sure there are others, but why should I look for them. They have no impact on how I play, because I don't need them to play.
The game is still random, and the last draw or even the last two draws can for the most part give you at least 1 sometimes 2 digits to work with. That's random. Yes ok, you showed 0 appearing 6 times in the same position. Can you show me another time when that occured? And I'm not really asking you to show me, all I'm saying is that that shouldn't be considered the norm either. That's just one example as well. There is no norm in random. You're assuming the game should be played according to how you think and feel it should be. That's not random. I have seen the 8 show in the first position on pick3 NY one time 5 times in a row. I have never seen any other digit do that again for the past 5 years. It's still random in the overall picture. Repeating digits happen more than one would think they do. Yes it's very hard to get it right. Trust me I know.
LotteryBraker used to talk about pre-tests a lot to everybody who wouldn't listen. And he said all they do is cause a lag in the numbers that you think are 'supposed' to come out. And that the State Commission does these things so that they cant be taken advantage of and the game can't be called a farce. So if you know this then be prepared for it so that you have a better chance to win. I mean in the end it keeps the game firmly established. Which is what the majority of players want as well as the Commission, because not every player has the time to track a long overdue digit.
And Amber123 thank you so much for not calling me any names. I appreciate that. We all have important things we need to think about.
I know the zeros I showed don't happen often, it was just an example of the mess that can be created with tests. You don't seem to understand my point.
Numbers that were supposed to show up don't, and people lose money, like i wrote in my last reply. Personally, I don't play overdue numbers but a lot of people do. The point is that what the officials are doing is justified erroneously, based on false premises, means they are lying out their ass.
Since stuck47, coinfuss, and the Jelly manufacturer avoid my questions, maybe you'll entertain me.
Answer honestly, how long would the casinos stay open, or even open their doors from day one If they all announced they will start implementing the same rules as the lotteries, like the pre tests?
Every spin of the roulette wheel represents a new game. Every deal of the cards represents a new game, every pull of the slot handle represents a new game. What If they performed 5 pre tests before each spin, before each pull of the handle, before each deal of cards, would you still go to the casino?
It's a yes or no answer.
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HI
I'm known in this thread as 'clueless' because I tend to disagree with a lot that's being said.
"Suppose to show up"
How in the world can anyone know what is suppose to show up??
If we knew that we would all be rich.
For the life of me, I just don't understand how people can think that the drawing machine is self-aware and knows which integers have
come out of the escape gate(s); knows which integer has been out the longest; can know and add the numerals printed on the balls; knows what a double is and which ones have escaped; knows the difference between odd and even integers; knows which of the 1,000 triads have exited the gates; understands what a VTRAC is and can compensate to ensure that the one that is suppose to show up actually does; can remember which balls were in the last permutation, whether it be a pre-test or the official winning integers, etc. -
I do agree with the fact that in something that is supposed to show up falls in the area of probability versus what actually occurs. The two are not the same thing. While I do understand that we all as players have beliefs on the numbers we play and why, doesn't there always seem to be something that changes regardless of the cause or reason. I don't think that I could definitely pinpoint the reason on only one factor. Sometimes the reason could be me. Everything that is probable doesn't always occur. It's just probable that it will occur or it will not occur. Hence the name theory. Coin flipping and dice tossing prove this.
There was a case with a roulette wheel that was apparently lopsided or something and the players made a killing off of it. And the casinos well I don't know the whole story but the players well they capitalized big time off of it. That's what the Lottery and it's Commission doesn't want to happen. A lopsided victory for just certain players and not everyone that plays. Can you blame them? Their purpose of the game is to give everyone a chance. Not just you or me or bobby623, etc.
What I'm trying to say is that the Lottery tries their best to be fair. And when it comes to paying people, they pay people. Unless it's fraud etc..they have to have checks in place. I guess pre-tests fall in that category of checks and balances for them.
The problem to understand is how to make your picks fall into that randomness that the game follows. Timing is always the problem for me. Not the numbers, the timing. So random is the point to understand, not pre-testing in my view. There's always more than one factor that affects the game from what I've seen. I say random because obviously nobody can say for sure what the result will be. So yes it is random as much as it can be. Which is the point of the game.
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I do agree with the fact that in something that is supposed to show up falls in the area of probability versus what actually occurs. The two are not the same thing. While I do understand that we all as players have beliefs on the numbers we play and why, doesn't there always seem to be something that changes regardless of the cause or reason. I don't think that I could definitely pinpoint the reason on only one factor. Sometimes the reason could bethe player. Everything that is probable doesn't always occur. It's just probable that it will occur or it will not occur. Hence the name theory. Coin flipping and dice tossing prove this.
There was a case with a roulette wheel that was apparently lopsided or something and the players made a killing off of it. And the casinos well I don't know the whole story but the players well they capitalized big time off of it. That's what the Lottery and it's Commission doesn't want to happen. A lopsided victory for just certain players and not everyone that plays. Can you blame them? Their purpose of the game is to give everyone a chance. Not just you or me or bobby623, etc.
What I'm trying to say is that the Lottery tries their best to be fair. And when it comes to paying people, they pay people. Unless it's fraud etc..they have to have checks in place. I guess pre-tests fall in that category of checks and balances for them.
The problem to understand is how to make your picks fall into that randomness that the game follows. Timing is always the problem for me. Not the numbers, the timing. So random is the point to understand, not pre-testing in my view. There's always more than one factor that affects the game from what I've seen. I say random because obviously nobody can say for sure what the result will be. So yes it is random as much as it can be. Which is the point of the game.
Good point. The game can be beaten.
https://www.lotterypost.com/news/307032
128 straight winners the day she won, mostly her tickets. Looks like they only play hot combos out there in SC from looking at their payout page.
Simplify..
" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "
Million dollar Ops.
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Quote: Originally posted by Soledad on Sep 25, 2016
I do agree with the fact that in something that is supposed to show up falls in the area of probability versus what actually occurs. The two are not the same thing. While I do understand that we all as players have beliefs on the numbers we play and why, doesn't there always seem to be something that changes regardless of the cause or reason. I don't think that I could definitely pinpoint the reason on only one factor. Sometimes the reason could be me. Everything that is probable doesn't always occur. It's just probable that it will occur or it will not occur. Hence the name theory. Coin flipping and dice tossing prove this.
There was a case with a roulette wheel that was apparently lopsided or something and the players made a killing off of it. And the casinos well I don't know the whole story but the players well they capitalized big time off of it. That's what the Lottery and it's Commission doesn't want to happen. A lopsided victory for just certain players and not everyone that plays. Can you blame them? Their purpose of the game is to give everyone a chance. Not just you or me or bobby623, etc.
What I'm trying to say is that the Lottery tries their best to be fair. And when it comes to paying people, they pay people. Unless it's fraud etc..they have to have checks in place. I guess pre-tests fall in that category of checks and balances for them.
The problem to understand is how to make your picks fall into that randomness that the game follows. Timing is always the problem for me. Not the numbers, the timing. So random is the point to understand, not pre-testing in my view. There's always more than one factor that affects the game from what I've seen. I say random because obviously nobody can say for sure what the result will be. So yes it is random as much as it can be. Which is the point of the game.
I guess I can put you on the list of people who avoid my TWO CRUCIAL questions. That's okay, You all know there is no sensible answer to those two questions because I'm right and you are wrong.
I just want to see your face when you put 100 bucks on 30 in roulette and during the five test spins, 30 shows up, but not on the official spin. I would pay to see you people's reactions. This is all of course hypothetical, because no one in their right mind would EVER agree to walk into a casino with those stipulations. Casinos would be a thing of the past.
Yet when it's applied to the lottery, you are all jumping for joy, just like lost puppies in a huge yard filled with a 1,000 milk bones scattered everywhere, wearing horse blinders and drunk like a sailor.
I don't expect you to agree with me, just answer my two questions. Never mind, you people don't get it and never will.