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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 20 days ago by Soledad.

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rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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October 23, 2007
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Posted: September 22, 2016, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

Just an observation.

Sept 19 morning draw, 772.

Sept 19 midday draw, 277.

I have seen even triples play back to back in the official draws.

So to me if a number shows in a pretest, it very well could still show in the official draw.

To me, the pretest is much ado over nothing.

As far as the equipment wearing out? Who cares. Not me.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

    grwurston's avatar - 144
    Let's Go Rangers!!!
    bel air maryland
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    Posted: September 22, 2016, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

    I've noticed on this thread that has been a lot of posts about probability, should we worry about pre tests or not, machine wear and tear and so on.

    But no one else has presented any other answer(s)  to my original question back on page 9. 

    If the same number comes up 4 or 5 times in the same position, (in the pre test) why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

    I already posted my thoughts here:  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306783/478681

    Answering this question will tell us once and for all, how random the lottery officials want the games to be, or not be. All the lotteries do it. But why. Even though it's a pre-test and the draws don't count, they still do it anyway. The questions are:

    What are they trying to accomplish or prevent by doing it?    And, WHY do they do it??? Now what do YOU think???

    "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

    The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

    Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

      MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
      Ny
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      Member #167314
      July 5, 2015
      1807 Posts
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      Posted: September 22, 2016, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

      I've noticed on this thread that has been a lot of posts about probability, should we worry about pre tests or not, machine wear and tear and so on.

      But no one else has presented any other answer(s)  to my original question back on page 9. 

      If the same number comes up 4 or 5 times in the same position, (in the pre test) why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

      I already posted my thoughts here:  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306783/478681

      Answering this question will tell us once and for all, how random the lottery officials want the games to be, or not be. All the lotteries do it. But why. Even though it's a pre-test and the draws don't count, they still do it anyway. The questions are:

      What are they trying to accomplish or prevent by doing it?    And, WHY do they do it??? Now what do YOU think???

      If the same number comes up 4 or 5 times in the same position, (in the pre test) why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

      Good question gr. I gave some thought to that question and the only thing I can come up with is that after 4 or 5 times the same ball lands in the same position the lottery officials assume there is something wrong with the ball machine. I then assume they feel that the occasion is not random at that point. Which is what lead me to believe the main purpose of the pre-tests are to ensure there game is 'random' in their own definition. Kinda weird. 

      Creativity..

      " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

      Million dollar operation 

      Wink

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: September 22, 2016, 9:33 pm - IP Logged

        "The result will the same as the day before for at least 2 days in a row."

        No it won't. All you're doing is showing an example of one particular series of results that happened in the past. We already know that the same result will  sometimes repeat, and probability tells us how often it will happen. What we don't know is when it will happen. With only two choices (H/T, odd/even) yesterday's result can be expected to repeat the next day half of the time, and to repeat for the next two days 25% of the time, but you can never say with certainty that it will happen the next day or next two days.

        "That to me is predicting future results."

        That you are sometimes right as a result of simple probability isn't prediction.

         

        "And don't send me your starter replacement bill."

        Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

        "WOW!...some people are just plain dumb !!!!!!"

        Well, at least you get something right once in a while.

         

        "To remotely assert that the lotteries would conduct a completely 'blind' operation without an idea of how much they'd win or lose is absurd"

        Of course it is, and I haven't done that. All I've said is that they rely on simple probability to know how much they'll profit. When they sell pick 3 tickets for $1 each and pay $500 for winning they know that in the long term they're going to sell $1000 worth of tickets for every $500 they pay out for a winning ticket. The same is true for pick 4, MM and PB, and the various other state lotto games. The selection of winning numbers is the completely random result of probability, but there's nothing blind about the number of winners and losers that will result.

        Of course the article you linked to has nothing to do with that. Scratchers differ from the online games in that they rely on randomness in distributing the tickets,  but the tickets themselves aren't generated randomly. Instead the lottery determines a payout structure and then deliberately issues tickets that have the necessary number of winners (in all necessary amounts) and losers; they even provide you with that information if you're smart enough to look for it. The statistician who "cracked" the lottery simply figured out that for one particular game he could usually determine if a particular ticket was a winner if he already knew some of that ticket's attributes.

         

        "Have you done any back-testing"

        It's not a type of cognitive bias, but belief in back testing is somewhat similar. It's a form of circular reasoning, and relies on past results to predict past results. If it doesn't confirm what you hope it will you've made some kind of an error.

         

        "Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?"

        You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

         

        " -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

        The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn"

        What stack's statement shows is that he's got a better understanding of probability than you do. In a random selection each number has the same probability of being selected, but that's completely different than each number being selected the same number of times. Given a large enough number of selections random probability will tend to result in a uniform distribution, but that's not the same thing as an equal distribution. It should be obvious if you give it just a tiny bit of thought. If you roll a die three times and get 2, 3 and 5 then it's more likely that the first 12 rolls will have two 2's than two 6's and that the first 18 rolls will have three 2's than three 6's simply because you've already gotten the first 2 but not the first 6. You need fewer 2's than 6's to have the repeats you're looking for. As the sample size gets larger the distribution tends to get closer to being equal, but there's no magical force that demands that it be equal. If you look at past results of pick 3 or 4, lotto, and similar games you'll find that the frequency with which each number has been selected can always be plotted as a bell curve. Some numbers being selected a bit more often and some a bit less is what we expect from random probability.

         

        "I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times"

        Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

         

        "I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it"

        You're right. If you try often enough it will happen.  There's only  a problem with the thinking if you think that offers you a useful guarantee. Even if you could be positive that playing 123 for pick 3 guaranteed that you'd win once every 1000 days you'd still lose half of your money, but you can't even be sure it will happen once in 1000 tries. The actual chances of a particular P3 number being drawn in 1000 tries is a bit less than 2 in 3. That's balanced by a 1 in 3 chance that it would be drawn twice, but even then you'd only break even.

        That last is an excellent example of how an exactly equal chance of being selected results in the possible numbers being selected a different number of times.

        Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

         

        It was another example of their stupidity and yours.I've explained it so many times, but YOU and STUCK47 are just plain morons. I just can't believe there are that many morons walking this planet. WOW!

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

         

         

        Now I know you are a certified moron, of course they do, at least one of the reasons. Do you even read what you write dumbass? In your first sentence you write, they don't do tests to see if things are working properly, and then in your second sentence you write, "THEY CONDUCT THEM TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE PROBLEM"...Are you really that freaking dense? You just contradicted yourself. Go back to your Jelly factory and spread some of that lube in your ear hole.

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

         

        Please don't ever use the word "sensible" in your replies because you are a million light years away from anything remotely close to sensible. Don't test me by asking me stupid question BOY ! You are a two bit loser who has no cognitive abilities. It's evident in everything you write in your replies. Let the thinking people here do the thinking, thanks !...I would delve into your question, but your brain couldn't handle it. Listen genius, the more you flip a coin, and the flips show the same side, the more of a chance it will try to balance itself out. I would elaborate, but I can't draw pictures too well.

         

        I actually feel sorry for you.

          MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
          Ny
          United States
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          July 5, 2015
          1807 Posts
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          Posted: September 22, 2016, 10:10 pm - IP Logged

          Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

           

          It was another example of their stupidity and yours.I've explained it so many times, but YOU and STUCK47 are just plain morons. I just can't believe there are that many morons walking this planet. WOW!

           

           

           

           

           

           

           

          You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

           

           

          Now I know you are a certified moron, of course they do, at least one of the reasons. Do you even read what you write dumbass? In your first sentence you write, they don't do tests to see if things are working properly, and then in your second sentence you write, "THEY CONDUCT THEM TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE PROBLEM"...Are you really that freaking dense? You just contradicted yourself. Go back to your Jelly factory and spread some of that lube in your ear hole.

           

           

           

           

           

           

           

          Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

           

          Please don't ever use the word "sensible" in your replies because you are a million light years away from anything remotely close to sensible. Don't test me by asking me stupid question BOY ! You are a two bit loser who has no cognitive abilities. It's evident in everything you write in your replies. Let the thinking people here do the thinking, thanks !...I would delve into your question, but your brain couldn't handle it. Listen genius, the more you flip a coin, and the flips show the same side, the more of a chance it will try to balance itself out. I would elaborate, but I can't draw pictures too well.

           

          I actually feel sorry for you.

          Listen genius, the more you flip a coin, and the flips show the same side, the more of a chance it will try to balance itself out.

          Green laugh

          I like this amber I believe theirs a term for it. Progressive probability if im correct. There's only but so many times a certain trend or digit will show consecutively until it transitions to a different trend ever so smoothly.

          Creativity..

          " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

          Million dollar operation 

          Wink

            grwurston's avatar - 144
            Let's Go Rangers!!!
            bel air maryland
            United States
            Member #90251
            April 24, 2010
            4879 Posts
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            Posted: September 22, 2016, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

            If the same number comes up 4 or 5 times in the same position, (in the pre test) why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

            Good question gr. I gave some thought to that question and the only thing I can come up with is that after 4 or 5 times the same ball lands in the same position the lottery officials assume there is something wrong with the ball machine. I then assume they feel that the occasion is not random at that point. Which is what lead me to believe the main purpose of the pre-tests are to ensure there game is 'random' in their own definition. Kinda weird. 

            Why would there be something wrong with the machine? Maybe it's just random at work. If that happened in the official draws that's what they would say if you complained about it. Last month in the mid P4 we had the 9 hit 8 days in a row, skip one day, then hit another 3 straight. Different positions but still... But they assume there is something wrong after only 4 or 5 in a row. So 11 times in 12 days is random in the official draw, but it can't be random in the pre-test?  I ain't buying that. Again the question is why not?

            What are they trying to do?

            "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

            The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

            Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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              Posted: September 22, 2016, 11:02 pm - IP Logged

              As many of you know, some time a go PA had their balls tampered with. Since then, over time I assume, states started implementing the same tests. Call me a conspiracy person but I find it strange. It's an old method used by governments to manipulate future events to their favor. I'm willing to bet some secret group of officials had a brainstorm. Let's create a problem of tampering blaming patsies, then we can use this excuse of tampering to increase the difficulty for the public to win as often as they are currently doing. These "system makers" are onto something, and our job is to make the bottom line as high as possible. But they are spreading their systems and eventually we will be out of jobs.

              Years ago Florida changed the Florida fantasy Five game from a 26 number matrix to a 36 number matrix because it was too easy to win. The odds were around 1 in 25,000. 

              Years ago I used to win the p-3 on a somewhat regular basis. At worst I was even. And I'm talking straight wins because I hardly ever play boxed. I'm telling you my gut feeling is 95% correct and something is not quite right. They're throwing valid numbers out the freaking window, but some just don't WANT to understand this. 

               

              Why is it so freaking hard to address my questions? We'll take this one question at a time....lol

              NUMBER ONE: Address how Casinos would stay in business if they conducted this foolish practice. CASINOS HAVE HAD MORE THAN THEIR SHARE OF THIEVES, but they use facial recognition technology and other techniques to monitor bad behavior. Just like when I suggested using technology, put the machines in a vault with live feeds being recorded, with a security guard monitoring the feed.

                amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                Posted: September 22, 2016, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

                Can you Imagine if after each RNG influenced winning number was produced in the Christmas Million Dollar Raffle for 20 bucks a pop, and it's lower tier prizes, they would have to run 7 simulations, and one of those simulations was your million dollar winning numbers?

                 

                Joe Schmo from California,

                Nah, I don't care If California shows their pre test results, no help to me, I lost a million bucks because those numbers don't count.. In fact my friend Tony in the Valley had a $50,000 dollar winning ticket. That's life !

                 

                Some of you live in a dreamland. In both scenarios, I would have a bucket of popcorn watching the mayhem that would ensue. Can you imagine the outrage if after every computer drawing, they would test the computer 5 times before and after? KY FLEM, DO YOU GE IT NOW???????????

                Until the effect happens to someone in a localized fashion, only then will the light bulb turn on. Until then, it's just some nerds who are great at math and nothing else. No intuition, no gut feelings, no street smart, no social skills, no nothing, rigid robots who have blinders on. Rules that cannot be broken period ! Everything is written in stone !....UNTIL It AFFECTS THEM !

                Thud

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: September 22, 2016, 11:27 pm - IP Logged

                  I don't care if you were replying to the pope, in my opinion you made an erroneous statement which needed to be corrected.

                  As far as your second sentence, you are rambling.

                  1. The Pope would only be interested in Bingo games.
                  2. You talk about dice being dealt and tell me I'm making erroneous statements, real rich. Explaining something to you is rambling, even richer.
                  3. In your latest post here regarding the PA lottery being tampered with, that's so those in the know could play the mark of the beast. Regardless of the game pretests and checking things to make sure they are on the up and up is to protect the game against any collusion, which is exactly what happened in PA. 

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                    amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                    Posted: September 22, 2016, 11:34 pm - IP Logged
                    1. The Pope would only be interested in Bingo games.
                    2. You talk about dice being dealt and tell me I'm making erroneous statements, real rich. Explaining something to you is rambling, even richer.
                    3. In your latest post here regarding the PA lottery being tampered with, that's so those in the know could play the mark of the beast. Regardless of the game pretests and checking things to make sure they are on the up and up is to protect the game against any collusion, which is exactly what happened in PA. 

                    You can't address my Casino comparison can you? I get it, there is no acceptable explanation, so you possibly can't offer one, it doesn't exist. There is no way for you to explain why casinos don't do the same tests as the lotteries after each deal or spin. Your poor attempt earlier was a failure, so you're back to square one. Be the first one to NOT evade the crucial questions. 

                    I won't allow people to change the subject. Those casinos would be out of business the same day they implemented those same rules as the lottery enforces. 

                    EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT PART OF THIS STATEMENT IS FALSE !

                      grwurston's avatar - 144
                      Let's Go Rangers!!!
                      bel air maryland
                      United States
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                      April 24, 2010
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                      Posted: September 23, 2016, 12:44 am - IP Logged
                      1. The Pope would only be interested in Bingo games.
                      2. You talk about dice being dealt and tell me I'm making erroneous statements, real rich. Explaining something to you is rambling, even richer.
                      3. In your latest post here regarding the PA lottery being tampered with, that's so those in the know could play the mark of the beast. Regardless of the game pretests and checking things to make sure they are on the up and up is to protect the game against any collusion, which is exactly what happened in PA. 

                      In the Pa, Pick 3 fix years back. Only the 4 and 6 balls were able to win in that draw.

                      "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                      The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                      Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: September 23, 2016, 1:31 am - IP Logged

                        You can't address my Casino comparison can you? I get it, there is no acceptable explanation, so you possibly can't offer one, it doesn't exist. There is no way for you to explain why casinos don't do the same tests as the lotteries after each deal or spin. Your poor attempt earlier was a failure, so you're back to square one. Be the first one to NOT evade the crucial questions. 

                        I won't allow people to change the subject. Those casinos would be out of business the same day they implemented those same rules as the lottery enforces. 

                        EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT PART OF THIS STATEMENT IS FALSE !

                        Lotteries have one or two drawings a day, two or three times a week for state jackpot games, and twice a week for MM and PB.

                        Silly that you need this explained to you, but casinos are in business to get hands of cards dealt, rolls of the dice, and spins of the roulette wheel. 

                        So much for no way of being able to explain why casinos don't do the same tests. 

                        Your feigned knowledge of casinos is getting kind of entertaining, keep it up.

                        You are of the school of have-to-have-the-last-word so this should be good. 

                        Lep

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                          ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                          Posted: September 23, 2016, 4:30 am - IP Logged

                          I've noticed on this thread that has been a lot of posts about probability, should we worry about pre tests or not, machine wear and tear and so on.

                          But no one else has presented any other answer(s)  to my original question back on page 9. 

                          If the same number comes up 4 or 5 times in the same position, (in the pre test) why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

                          I already posted my thoughts here:  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306783/478681

                          Answering this question will tell us once and for all, how random the lottery officials want the games to be, or not be. All the lotteries do it. But why. Even though it's a pre-test and the draws don't count, they still do it anyway. The questions are:

                          What are they trying to accomplish or prevent by doing it?    And, WHY do they do it??? Now what do YOU think???

                          The lottery is well aware that players have the ways and means , with computers to track and analyse the draws. Simple as that. With their computers they can track which number is played the most in any lottery game. Then do the pre-tests, we don't really know how many they do.

                            Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                            Zaperlopopotam
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                            Posted: September 23, 2016, 9:34 am - IP Logged

                            Eventually you will win because of an employee who kicked in the machine or squeezed one ball. Stuff can happen in many ways.

                            .
                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                              Texas
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                              Posted: September 23, 2016, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

                              Why would there be something wrong with the machine? Maybe it's just random at work. If that happened in the official draws that's what they would say if you complained about it. Last month in the mid P4 we had the 9 hit 8 days in a row, skip one day, then hit another 3 straight. Different positions but still... But they assume there is something wrong after only 4 or 5 in a row. So 11 times in 12 days is random in the official draw, but it can't be random in the pre-test?  I ain't buying that. Again the question is why not?

                              What are they trying to do?

                              Yes Nod Now, we're getting somewhere. Between a few of us here who are infinitely attentive to the lotteries' practices, there's a valid observation of them clearly attempting to create, and, choose their version of random. At this very moment, we're all interested in why it's NOT okay for digits to repeat (4) consecutive times during pre-tests but, it's a-okay when it happens during the course of (4) consecutive OFFICIAL DRAWSBSNo NodWhat?Frown. He!!, what's the difference? It's the same exact thing happening over the same period of time but, only one warrants a CORRECTIONAL PROTOCOLNo Nod? Not sure about others here but, the one thing in this world I honestly despise is when there's an attempt to discount my intelligenceMad. In a lottery such as this, whatever happens IS THE RANDOMNESS no matter how many times or where it happens in a single draw but, it's also the same thing these folks are controlling. When you control random, it is no longer random...BECAUSE RANDOM DOES NOT HAVE A PREEMPTIVE  PROCESS OF ANY FORMSmash. I agree with amber123 100% that if casinos were to implement such procedures, they'd probably go out of business. I'm talking about the liver dealer stuff and not the machines they use. Can you imagine telling world famous Poker, Black Jack, or Craps player that a certain possible winning hand dealt, or, a roll doesn't count 'cause it's a 'pre' whatever? Man, the word would get around so fast and they'd be filing bankruptcy in a week's timeNo Pity!

                              I believe we have a decent argument here.

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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