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MoneyMike$

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Sep 11, 2016, 8:11 pm

In pick 4 mainly? pick 3 could be analyzed also.. even jackpot games do you believe every combination has the same probability? just want opinions and why?

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phileight

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Sep 11, 2016, 8:38 pm

if you are talking straight combinations then every combination has the same probability. there is only one way it can hit out of the possible combinations.

in pick 3 and 4 box combinations are a bit different. consider the combination 123 this can be arranged in 6 ways so there are 6 possible ways for it to hit. now consider 112 there are only 3 ways for this to hit so the probability is lower. this is reflected in the payouts for different types of combinations
LiveInGreenBay

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Sep 11, 2016, 8:51 pm

Years ago I drove to the Illinois border to play a huge jackpot. Standing behind this young couple I overheard the man say to the woman as she played her slip... "1,2,3,4,5,6? The lottery people love you". I always remembered his statement. I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher.

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quicksloth35

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Sep 11, 2016, 9:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LiveInGreenBay on Sep 11, 2016
Years ago I drove to the Illinois border to play a huge jackpot. Standing behind this young couple I overheard the man say to the woman as she played her slip... "1,2,3,4,5,6? The lottery people love you". I always remembered his statement. I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher.

I remember some time ago hearing that 1-2-3-4-5-6 was a popular combination. I wonder if anybody ever plays 4-5-6-7-8-9 or, in the case of PB and MM, 65-66-67-68-69. Those would be just as likely to hit as 1-2-3-4-5-6, and if they did, you wouldn't have a jackpot split umpteen number of ways, supposedly.
TheMeatman2005

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Sep 11, 2016, 11:04 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LiveInGreenBay on Sep 11, 2016
Years ago I drove to the Illinois border to play a huge jackpot. Standing behind this young couple I overheard the man say to the woman as she played her slip... "1,2,3,4,5,6? The lottery people love you". I always remembered his statement. I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher.

Every combination has the same chance as every other combination.

I think it's less likely to come in, but it is possible! Like getting hit by lightning while being eaten by a shark.

The Meatman 🥩🍗🍔🍖🍤🌭

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Stack47

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Sep 11, 2016, 11:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by MoneyMike$ on Sep 11, 2016
In pick 4 mainly? pick 3 could be analyzed also.. even jackpot games do you believe every combination has the same probability? just want opinions and why?

If you check the last 10,000 pick-4 drawings you'll probably see where not all 10,000 straight combinations were drawn so not all combos had the same probability. Another method is digit positions. If the "1" in the first position is drawn less than 1000, it's impossible for all the straight combos to be drawn.

Because we'll never see a 10,000 pick-4 drawing history where each digit in each digit position was drawn exactly 1000 times, it's safe to say not all pick-4 combos will have the same probability in the next 10,000 drawings.

"jackpot games do you believe every combination has the same probability"

So far because none of the 292,201,338 PB combos and none of the 258,890,850 MM combos repeated, all the drawn combos had the same probability. And with only 104 drawings a year and matrix changes, none of us will probably live long enough to see a repeat.
amber123

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Sep 12, 2016, 12:39 am

Quote: Originally posted by MoneyMike$ on Sep 11, 2016
In pick 4 mainly? pick 3 could be analyzed also.. even jackpot games do you believe every combination has the same probability? just want opinions and why?

Only in a perfect world, but we have greedy officials with no scruples. As far as big games, no need on their part to screw up flow, odds against the players fix that problem, but on the smaller games, heck yeah, they go out of their way to skew outcomes.
MoneyMike$

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Sep 12, 2016, 1:07 am

I feel if the system is rigged they shy a way from the most played numbers in a the specific orders daily to avoid the potential huge payouts to all of us players and give just a percentage back to a "lucky" few. So does this mean one has to not only play to win but also formulate his number into something he/she may think is the least played combo? It's no telling... I do notice though across the states their are states where I'd say a low amount of people are hitting pick 3 & 4 straight and even box compared to other states. Just very few winners all around. Most of these states I'd have to research but I feel like these are the ones with automated draw machines. I don't put it past some states need the money and funding more than others and will be selfish enough to manipulate lotteries and their players. I try my best to be creative and account for all factors.

Simplify..

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Million dollar Ops.
MoneyMike$

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Sep 12, 2016, 2:06 am

Check out this thread also:

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306786/4778043

Simplify..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar Ops.
Lucky Loser

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Sep 12, 2016, 2:18 am

Absolutely not, and this is directly due to all the pre & post-test draws conducted. It's not so much that a 'complete combination' be it boxed or straight has the same probability but, pairs of numbers are often repeated from one official draw to the next. However, after the official draw is conducted, you will find that none of the pairs from that draw are found in the very next 'clean draw' whether it's a post-test draw or the first pre-test draw prior to the next official draw. Just doesn't happen. I just recently discussed this with a LP acquaintance of mine and used Connecticut Pick 4 as an example because it was most recent at the time. Examples:

CT 9/10/16 Day - 5321

CT 9/10/16 Eve - 4327

DC 9/08/16 EVE - 6870

DC 9/09/16 DAY - 6894

FL 9/07/16 EVE - 1132

FL 9/08/16 MID - 6136

GA 9/04/16 MID - 5221

GA 9/04/16 EVE - 5828

Many more examples like this on both Pick 3 and Pick 4 can be found, and, it happens fairly regularly. How can this affect a player? Well, depending on the filtering strategy, the average player would simply rule out the possibility of any same pairs showing up in the next draw in their same positions. Removing those pairs in straight or boxed form would've resulted in losses on all the above draws and that's how it affects both the player and their system. As I've often said in my strong opinion, they conduct all those bogus draws to purposely throw off any reasonable system based on the probability of re-occurrence. While it may not happen as often as it could, you just never know when it will and you're taking a chance by eliminating any paired combination. On the other hand, playing it back could net a good win...never know. Mind you, even with the repeating of pairs, the entire combination drawn is still part of all the possible combinations. However, because that same partial combination is drawn after at least (4) previous draws in pre-testing, it lowers the possibility of other combinations.

The most common thing to occur is a single digit repeating from one draw to the next, and, this happens a lot in the same position as well. I've seen a digit repeat up to (4) times in a row in the same position BUT, it's only after the pre-tests and shows up in the official draws. This is a direct result of all those dang tests and tampering with the machines/ball sets. Everything they do is by design to either increase or decrease something with the results, okay, and I support that strong opinion with the ABSENCE of such nonsense at casinos. For some reason, the casinos don't feel the need to tamper with probability. What ever happens on that SINGLE first spin, roll, or hand is what happens and if the player(s) outwit the probability, then so be it. Hope this helps.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

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quicksloth35

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Sep 12, 2016, 10:57 am

Quote: Originally posted by TheMeatman2005 on Sep 11, 2016
Every combination has the same chance as every other combination.

I think it's less likely to come in, but it is possible! Like getting hit by lightning while being eaten by a shark.

One thought people have when some super freaky event happens (struck by lightning, eaten by a shark, etc.) is: better go buy a lottery ticket! Two things for sure I know I will do when I hit big: stay out of the ocean and stay inside and away from the window during inclement weather!
Todd

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Sep 12, 2016, 11:32 am

Quote: Originally posted by phileight on Sep 11, 2016
if you are talking straight combinations then every combination has the same probability. there is only one way it can hit out of the possible combinations.

in pick 3 and 4 box combinations are a bit different. consider the combination 123 this can be arranged in 6 ways so there are 6 possible ways for it to hit. now consider 112 there are only 3 ways for this to hit so the probability is lower. this is reflected in the payouts for different types of combinations

This is the correct answer right here. For straight combinations, yes, every combination has exactly the same chance of winning. For box combinations, no, because the number of duplicate digits determines the odds of a combination hitting.

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MoneyMike$

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Sep 12, 2016, 11:45 am

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Sep 12, 2016
This is the correct answer right here. For straight combinations, yes, every combination has exactly the same chance of winning. For box combinations, no, because the number of duplicate digits determines the odds of a combination hitting.

I agree. So we agree their are 10,000 straight combinations and if i research correct 417 box combinations? Is that the correct value?

Simplify..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar Ops.
CARBOB

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Sep 12, 2016, 11:55 am

715 play 4 boxes.
Sunglasses

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Sep 12, 2016, 12:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by phileight on Sep 11, 2016
if you are talking straight combinations then every combination has the same probability. there is only one way it can hit out of the possible combinations.

in pick 3 and 4 box combinations are a bit different. consider the combination 123 this can be arranged in 6 ways so there are 6 possible ways for it to hit. now consider 112 there are only 3 ways for this to hit so the probability is lower. this is reflected in the payouts for different types of combinations

That is not entirely correct.

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