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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 18 days ago by Soledad.

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bel air maryland
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Posted: September 13, 2016, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

Are you saying that every one here that charts the drawings and tracks and studies their games numbers are all delusional?

And there is an old saying, "History repeats itself." So yes, past results can predict future random events. I think the calendar system players will agree.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

    TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
    Brooklyn, NY
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    Posted: September 13, 2016, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

    "Is there any way to see all of the 292,201,338 possible combinations for Powerball im spreadsheet or pdf?"

    Sure. Did you have any other plans for the next few years?

    "So could you say lottery results are more controlled by nature then any other factor?"

    The entire point of the process, whether it's an RNG or a ball machine is to make sure that the selection of the winning numbers is as random as possible. As long as the results aren't somehow manipulated that makes them a simple function of probability, and probability is a function of natural laws.

    "I think the probability of something either occurring or re-occurring is directly affected by how many times it has already occurred "

    Some people think we never landed on the moon, or that if you flip a coin and get three heads in a row that tails is more likely on the next flip. Like you, they're wrong. The probability for flipping a coin is easy enough to test that you could do it yourself.

    "Why do you think all of these things even exist?"

    You know that there's a lot more to all those things than jus ideas about trying to predict what numbers are going to be drawn, right? As far as those ideas, they'll always be discussed because there are a lot of delusional people who think that past results can somehow predict future random events. The ideas make a lot of money for the people who sell them, but not the suckers who pay for them.

    What I am trying to figure out and certainly don't have the money to play is........

    What effect does removing the sets of numbers from the 11,238,513 possible combinations (excluding the Powerball number) if you take away the sets of numbers that contain 3, 4, or 5 consecutive numbers. Such as 1.2.3.17.52 or 22,22,23,24,61 or 1,2,3,4,5.....you get the idea.

    Since most of the time, the 5 (white ball) numbers do not contain sets of 3,4,or 5 consecutive numbers removing them from the play field would increase your chances and improve your odds.

    Removing sets with 2 consecutive numbers would remove more sets, but sometimes one of those comes out.

    So, Is there any way to see all of the 11,238,513 possible combinations (excluding the Powerball number) in a spreadsheet or pdf?

    If I can't get the spreadsheet or pdf, can someone just let me know how many sets of non-consecutive numbers there would be left from the possible combinations?

    The Meatman

    “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

    Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

      bobby623's avatar - abstract
      San Angelo, Texas
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      Posted: September 13, 2016, 8:56 pm - IP Logged

      I use a substitution workout whereby lottery history is broken down into smaller units for tracking and analysis purposes.
      I know for a fact that some integer groupings or combinations show up more often than others.
      If I were in New York and had $1 to play one set in the Take5/39 jackpot game, I would base my choices on Alpha Signature ABCCD.
      That is - one single digit, one teen, 2 twenties and a thirty.
      I have charts that show past history for each integer grouping, and some unique methods that help me decide which integers
      have the best chance of arriving soon. 
      Doesn't mean I'll always make the correct choices - nobody does.
      If I had deeper pockets I could employ a 12-integer wheel and play minimum of 6 sets.
      Thanks for your interest.

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: September 13, 2016, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

        Are you saying that every one here that charts the drawings and tracks and studies their games numbers are all delusional?

        And there is an old saying, "History repeats itself." So yes, past results can predict future random events. I think the calendar system players will agree.

        Don't bother responding to KY Jelly and his twin brother Stuck47. It's futile to educate people like them. They have blinders on, no third eye per se, like rigid computer programs with no access to peripheral thought processes. I can see it clearly by their responses.

        Just nod your head and move on..lol

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: September 13, 2016, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

          Okay, good, now we're getting somewhere...'cooking with Crisco.' This is good conversation and I appreciate you entertaining it.Yes Nod

          it should be obvious the testing processes for roulette, craps, and card games are all different and certainly different than lottery drawing testing.

          All three of these are number-based games, and, all three are administered by hand. I could be wrong but, I feel pretty confident that neither of these have 'tests' associated with them between spins/rolls/deals. They will initially inspect the properties to ensure they're free of flaws, markings, and rigging but no testing process thereafter. The same wheel, cards, and dice are used over and over and over and over without issue but, I'm sure they have an SOP for switching out at some point. All the property casinos use in their gaming is also 'quality controlled', it ain't nothing that WE can get our hands on unless we're in the business.

          The fact that the casino business absolutely entrusts their suppliers, the equipment, and, THEIR GAME ADMINISTRATORS' HANDS to satisfactorily conduct THEIR business without such tests speaks volumes. How the lotteries spend tons of money on several sophisticated draw machines, several sets of carefully balanced ping-pong balls, and DOESN'T TRUST those machines to be fired up and SINGLE DRAW a winning ball combination will always be well beyond me and so many others that know better. They should start that machine, watch the agitation for thirty seconds to a minute to ensure everything is copacetic, and then draw/drop from each chamber. If a problem is then encountered, address it.

          You place your bet(s), they roll the dice (1) time and either you win or you don't. You choose red or black, odd/even, first-second-third group of numbers, they spin (1)time and you win or lose. They pass out a hand, the dealer does his/her thing (1) time and you win or lose. I think the probability of something either occurring or re-occurring is directly affected by how many times it has already occurred be it accidentally or intentionally. Regarding your last sentence, I'm willing to bet good money that the person at that Cavs game didn't win on the official draw...straight or boxed, and, maybe not even pairs. I wish we could ask them.

          Bingo and Keno are better comparisons because some casinos still have live Keno ball drawings. I saw a Keno game closed while they changed the ball set, but have no idea how many times a day it's done or if it's just once a day or once a week. There still is a big difference because Keno and Bingo have multiple daily drawings where most lotteries only have two.

          All the lotteries say they do everything they can to insure random drawings meaning every combinations has an equal chance of being drawn. The chances of one combo repeating is exactly the same as any other combo being drawn, but I believe it's more physiological seeing the combo we played being drawn during the test. We think our chances are now worse because of the reality of the 1 in 1000 chance is staring us right in the face.

          "Regarding your last sentence, I'm willing to bet good money that the person at that Cavs game didn't win on the official draw...straight or boxed, and, maybe not even pairs. I wish we could ask them. "

          I thought they did it to be funny.

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: September 13, 2016, 9:26 pm - IP Logged

            Don't bother responding to KY Jelly and his twin brother Stuck47. It's futile to educate people like them. They have blinders on, no third eye per se, like rigid computer programs with no access to peripheral thought processes. I can see it clearly by their responses.

            Just nod your head and move on..lol

             "It's futile to educate people like them."

            Instead of just saying it, educate us on exactly how test drawings effect the official drawings.

              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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              Posted: September 13, 2016, 10:52 pm - IP Logged

               "It's futile to educate people like them."

              Instead of just saying it, educate us on exactly how test drawings effect the official drawings.

              Like I've written numerous times, it's futile. I can only explain it one way as the best possible explanation. Any attempt after that skews the results.

                MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                Ny
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                Posted: September 13, 2016, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

                Are you saying that every one here that charts the drawings and tracks and studies their games numbers are all delusional?

                And there is an old saying, "History repeats itself." So yes, past results can predict future random events. I think the calendar system players will agree.

                How far in the past? I agree. I feel yesterday's draw can predict the next one to a degree. If you mean whole combos returning I suppose an entire combination can come back a year later.

                Creativity..

                " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                Million dollar operation 

                Wink

                  grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                  Winning makes me smile.
                  bel air maryland
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                  Posted: September 14, 2016, 12:18 am - IP Logged

                  How far in the past? I agree. I feel yesterday's draw can predict the next one to a degree. If you mean whole combos returning I suppose an entire combination can come back a year later.

                  There are combos that repeat a month apart, sometimes even a week or less. Just go to search past results and select your state and enter a number and see for yourself.

                  "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                  The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                  Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

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                    New York, NY
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                    Posted: September 14, 2016, 3:18 am - IP Logged

                    The member LotteryBraker used to have a lot to say about the pre-test drawings, as well as the concept of randomness. I think he said that the pre-tests do skew the next result, but that there was some sort of 'lag' after the pre-test where the numbers that came up in the pre-test would come up later on or something. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's what I got out of reading what he said.

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                      Posted: September 14, 2016, 3:53 am - IP Logged

                      And listen there are situations, call them coincidences if you will, where the same exact 'thing' occurs from somewhere in the past to the present, albeit with different numbers etc, because the numbers in the present are different from the numbers in the past. It may take months or years or whatever, and it may look like it's going to happen over and over before it actually does, but it does happen. I have seen these situations, and made thousands off them.

                      Not to entirely disagree with anyone, I still believe that the game is very random, which is why most of the time I get 2 out of 3 instead of all 3. But these situations do occur, they may be few and far between, but they do. For anybody to deny this entirely, in my mind is not paying attention closely enough.

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                        Wyomissing, PA
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                        Posted: September 14, 2016, 9:03 am - IP Logged

                        Like I've written numerous times, it's futile. I can only explain it one way as the best possible explanation. Any attempt after that skews the results.

                        Setting aside that past events have no direct influence in regards to truly random events. But say, for whatever reason, a pre-test(s) effects the outcome of a drawing. That can cut both ways. A combination one played occurs in the pre-test(s) instead of the official drawing, and hence the player loses, as many point out. However, it could go the other way too. A combination one played doesn't occur in the pre-test(s), but occurs in the official drawing afterwards. All in all, this would even out. And that's assuming pre-tests directly effect future drawings, which they, presumably, don't.

                        Skewed results would imply that some numbers / combinations are being chosen more than others. Any meaningful amount of skewing will noticeably affect the revenue verses payout percentage over time. Many lotteries provide financial reports to the public. Have you ever looked at any of those? If so, seen anything out of the ordinary that would suggest skewing is occurring.

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          Posted: September 14, 2016, 11:49 am - IP Logged

                          Interesting responses, again, on this topic. I suppose it's now time to break it down even further and inject the common sense aspect of my whole theory. It still may not make any sense to a few but, at that point, you'll be faced with the obvious. So, if the pre & post tests have absolutely no affect on the official draw results, then why are so many players CHECKING THE HISTORY...THE PAST TALLY OF  COMBINATIONS in order to configure and base their current numbers/systems for FUTURE DRAWS? The past has EVERYTHING to do with probability and the future. Anytime a player is reflecting back into draw history, they're absolutely applying a +/- on the probability of FUTURE combinations. THOSE PRE/POST-TESTS ARE PART OF THAT DRAW HISTORY BECAUSE THOSE COMBINATIONS ARE STILL DRAWN.

                          If you believe that prior results of any kind have no bearing on future performance, then you should IMMEDIATELY CEASE FROM STUDYING PAST RESULTS OF ANY KIND to develop your numbers. I can't make it any plainer than this so I'm resting my case. It's been fun! Cheers

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

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                            Posted: September 14, 2016, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                            "Are you saying that every one here that charts the drawings and tracks and studies their games numbers are all delusional?"

                            If they do it because they think it will help them predict a future event that's random, yes. You can't predict things that are random, period. If you think you can you're delusional.

                            ""History repeats itself." So yes, past results can predict future random events."

                            Are you telling me that you think  all of history is just a long series of random events? Or do you recognize that some events are random and others are the result of human behavior, or the laws of physics, and other things that aren't random? Almost any idiot can tell you that there's going to be another war, or that  there will be another high tide tomorrow because they aren't the result of random events. Nobody can predict future random events. The best they can do is get lucky and make a guess that turns out to be right.

                            "Since most of the time, the 5 (white ball) numbers do not contain sets of 3,4,or 5 consecutive numbers removing them from the play field would increase your chances and improve your odds."

                            Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 7.  Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 23.  Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 44.  And so on, for every number in the matrix. The same is true for all odd or all even, all birthday numbers, all non-birthday numbers. And so on. There's not a single number, combination, or pattern of numbers that happens in most drawings simply because there are so many other numbers, combinations, and patterns of numbers that are possible.  The logic in your statement is exactly the same as the logic that would tell you not to have played any combination that hadn't yet won because it probably won't win, but at some point those combinations all became winners. And in all of those drawings (since the current matrix started) 292,201,337 other combinations didn't win.

                            "Instead of just saying it, educate us on exactly how test drawings effect the official drawings"

                            To be fair, some of the people who don't like test drawings are only bothered because they think it  may deprive them of some of the historical data. If they can't get the information, they're right about not having all of the data. Of course I don't recall anyone complaining that using a different set of balls or a different ball machine somehow screws things up, but it should be obvious that even if past results offered useful insight no analysis of  past drawings based on all machines and ball sets can could offer useful insight into the future results for oe specific ball set or machine.

                            Here's a question for the people who think that the tests actually affect the probability of  any particular number being drawn in the official drawing. How many times can you test flip a coin before the next flip won't have a 50/50 chance of coming up heads or tails?

                            "then why are so many players CHECKING THE HISTORY"

                            Are you claiming that because a lot of people think that checking past results can help them predict future results it therefore does help them predict future results? A lot of people go to psychics, too. Do you think psychics can predict the future, or do we need more people to consult psychics before that will work?

                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                              Posted: September 14, 2016, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

                              "Are you saying that every one here that charts the drawings and tracks and studies their games numbers are all delusional?"

                              If they do it because they think it will help them predict a future event that's random, yes. You can't predict things that are random, period. If you think you can you're delusional.

                              ""History repeats itself." So yes, past results can predict future random events."

                              Are you telling me that you think  all of history is just a long series of random events? Or do you recognize that some events are random and others are the result of human behavior, or the laws of physics, and other things that aren't random? Almost any idiot can tell you that there's going to be another war, or that  there will be another high tide tomorrow because they aren't the result of random events. Nobody can predict future random events. The best they can do is get lucky and make a guess that turns out to be right.

                              "Since most of the time, the 5 (white ball) numbers do not contain sets of 3,4,or 5 consecutive numbers removing them from the play field would increase your chances and improve your odds."

                              Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 7.  Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 23.  Most of the time the winning combination doesn't contain a 44.  And so on, for every number in the matrix. The same is true for all odd or all even, all birthday numbers, all non-birthday numbers. And so on. There's not a single number, combination, or pattern of numbers that happens in most drawings simply because there are so many other numbers, combinations, and patterns of numbers that are possible.  The logic in your statement is exactly the same as the logic that would tell you not to have played any combination that hadn't yet won because it probably won't win, but at some point those combinations all became winners. And in all of those drawings (since the current matrix started) 292,201,337 other combinations didn't win.

                              "Instead of just saying it, educate us on exactly how test drawings effect the official drawings"

                              To be fair, some of the people who don't like test drawings are only bothered because they think it  may deprive them of some of the historical data. If they can't get the information, they're right about not having all of the data. Of course I don't recall anyone complaining that using a different set of balls or a different ball machine somehow screws things up, but it should be obvious that even if past results offered useful insight no analysis of  past drawings based on all machines and ball sets can could offer useful insight into the future results for oe specific ball set or machine.

                              Here's a question for the people who think that the tests actually affect the probability of  any particular number being drawn in the official drawing. How many times can you test flip a coin before the next flip won't have a 50/50 chance of coming up heads or tails?

                              "then why are so many players CHECKING THE HISTORY"

                              Are you claiming that because a lot of people think that checking past results can help them predict future results it therefore does help them predict future results? A lot of people go to psychics, too. Do you think psychics can predict the future, or do we need more people to consult psychics before that will work?

                              I will only address the portion where you included questioning my summary. 

                               

                              "then why are so many players CHECKING THE HISTORY"

                              Are you claiming that because a lot of people think that checking past results can help them predict future results it therefore does help them predict future results? A lot of people go to psychics, too. Do you think psychics can predict the future, or do we need more people to consult psychics before that will work?

                              Yes NodYes, because what these players are doing is actually factoring in a reasonable extent and expectation of future probability. Otherwise, why are they researching past results...MAINLY, THE LAST OFFICIAL DRAW RESULTS? What? Basically, what YOU'RE asserting here is that even the current official results have no bearing on what can possibly happen next. In case you didn't know, a CURRENT official result IS PART OF THE PAST HISTORY ONCE IT'S COMPLETED.Smash As such, IT HAPPENED just as those tests happened and the only difference there IS THE TITLE OF THE COMBINATIONS DRAWN i.e. official results versus pre-tests. So, why bother even looking and studying?Unhappy Just go and purchase a series of QP'S for the next 'X' amount of draws and just hold on. LOL Is this registering at all yet? What is the future performance of most anything based on? Past results. What YOU'RE questioning is the very fabric of what hundreds of thousands of lottery players and members right here at LP are using to generate reasonable predictions. What I'm doing is encouraging the observance of ALL THE DRAWS, if possible, and take them into account when assembling combinations...because they happened, too. I said I was done but, it's becoming fun now!! 

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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