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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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helpmewin's avatar - dandy
u$a
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Posted: September 13, 2016, 12:58 am - IP Logged

I'm glad our Lottery don't do that.

Let it Snow Snowman

    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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    Posted: September 13, 2016, 1:00 am - IP Logged

    "I basically said that it further reduces the possibility of un-drawn combinations, in partial or whole, because those pre/post-tests cannot be discounted as never having happened simply due to them being written off as tests, okay.  "

    What about in states that don't publish testing results?

    "Those combinations were still drawn, and, this falls directly into the laws of probability jurisdiction."

    Most lotteries routinely change machines and ball sets and players don't know even if they watch the live drawings. Under those circumstances, with ball sets being changed to different drawing position machines or removed, I just can't see how probability could apply.

    "Another poster eluded to stories of having won in the pre-tests but, lost in the official draw"

    The Ohio Lottery decided to do their live drawing during half time of a Cav's game. And after the machines were setup, they announced they would conduct a couple of test drawings to make sure the machines worked properly. After the second test someone in stands started yelling "I won, I won".

    So let me reword my question. Do you have any proof or overwhelming evidence that pre-drawing test prevent any pick-3 or pick-4 combination from being drawn?

    This is very typical of you, Stack, and I'd think that after all these years...all the times that this same thing has been brought up and hashed by new members that it'd finally click that people are on to something. I'm simply sharing the very same observations that I've shared many times prior, and, was oftentimes the very one who introduced such observations and people appreciated that. But, not you...you seem to always feel the need to contest and warrant proof on everything while never providing any meaningful input yourself except on general stats. Listen, I enjoy giving people something to ponder over and think about in hopes that it'll cause them to become more aware of what's going on, and ultimately, become better players. The more I do this, the more YOU attempt to find something wrong with my general insight of observances with these games instead of ALSO trying to help people.

     

    Stack, your little story about the Ohio Lottery draw during half time of the Cavs game is a PRIME EXAMPLE of what myself and others have been discussing here the whole time. Let's have a look:

    -The Ohio Lottery decided to do their live drawing during half time of a Cav's game. And after the machines were setup, they announced they would conduct a couple of test drawings to make sure the machines worked properly. After the second test someone in stands started yelling "I won, I won".-

    Seems to me, that person won after only the second test was conducted. Was the second test actually the official draw?LOL Or, did they end up also winning on the next draw which was official?No Nod Which is it?What? 

    Also, be very mindful that in the link I provided in my last post, you had absolutely NOTHING to say about the same assertions I'm still consistently making now regarding pre/post-tests and how I believe they directly affect the outcomes. 

    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

    #lotto-4-a-living

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      Posted: September 13, 2016, 3:35 am - IP Logged

      " I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher."

      You'd be wrong. Regardless of the drawing mechanism, there's absolutely no relationship between one number and the next. They're not even really numbers - they're just labeled balls or a bunch of random electrons. The numbers may mean something to you, but they don't mean a thing to probability.

      "so not all combos had the same probability."

      It's not probability once it happens. All of the combinations had the same probability whether they were drawn or not. Some were drawn, and some weren't.

      "I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule ..."

      You know that MM and PB have cash values, right? Try finding that on the NY Lottery's website. What you can find more easily is a statement that all games are subject to the rules, which gives them the freedom to do whatever the rules allow. That very definitely includes stopping sales of numbers when that could result in an excessive payout.

      "Pre-tests don't prevent, but they do greatly reduce the chance of one number hitting. And that number is the last pre-test number itself, simply because of the odds against a 3 or 4 number repeat."

      You clearly haven't understood a thing at all about every combination having the same probability. The only reason the the last number in a pre-test isn't likely to be drawn as the winning number is that there are 999 or 9999 other numbers that might be drawn. Exactly the same reason that the number you've played isn't likely to win.

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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        Posted: September 13, 2016, 10:10 am - IP Logged

        Here's yet another link on pre/post-tests and combination probability from 2009. There are some very good responses here, and, I particularly like rdgrnr's plain and simple common sense towards the machines' general structure and testing. Also, RJOH confirmed a few things currently being said here and there's a response from Stack to RJOh essentially piggy-backing on the idea of players losing during pre-tests. RJOh made the contrast of other players being happy as they lost during tests but won on the official. Even the late Paurths, whom I had many exchanges with, felt that these methods seemed to disrupt his maintaining of personal stats on combinations. Lantern does a GREAT job of breaking it all down on Page 2 with two separate posts and it's the sort of thinking based on pure logic.

         

        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/204555/2

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

          TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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          Posted: September 13, 2016, 10:26 am - IP Logged

          Is there any way to see all of the 292,201,338 possible combinations for Powerball im spreadsheet or pdf? Same for Mega Millions. I tried to search online and couldn't find anything.

          I have an idea on how to cut the odds way down by removing certain combinations which have the least chance of being drawn. It's a crazy idea, but you never know!

          The Meatman

          “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

          Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

            MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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            Posted: September 13, 2016, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

            Their must be a scientific or mathematical name or concept for the reason a 6 consecutive number will not show and other combinations are more likely.. as well as 6 consecutive even or odd numbers and many other scenarios that are least likely then the seemingly well scattered  winning results.. 2468 has a hard enough time showing in pick 4 

            Creativity..

            " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

            Million dollar operation 

            Wink

              MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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              Posted: September 13, 2016, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

              " I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher."

              You'd be wrong. Regardless of the drawing mechanism, there's absolutely no relationship between one number and the next. They're not even really numbers - they're just labeled balls or a bunch of random electrons. The numbers may mean something to you, but they don't mean a thing to probability.

              "so not all combos had the same probability."

              It's not probability once it happens. All of the combinations had the same probability whether they were drawn or not. Some were drawn, and some weren't.

              "I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule ..."

              You know that MM and PB have cash values, right? Try finding that on the NY Lottery's website. What you can find more easily is a statement that all games are subject to the rules, which gives them the freedom to do whatever the rules allow. That very definitely includes stopping sales of numbers when that could result in an excessive payout.

              "Pre-tests don't prevent, but they do greatly reduce the chance of one number hitting. And that number is the last pre-test number itself, simply because of the odds against a 3 or 4 number repeat."

              You clearly haven't understood a thing at all about every combination having the same probability. The only reason the the last number in a pre-test isn't likely to be drawn as the winning number is that there are 999 or 9999 other numbers that might be drawn. Exactly the same reason that the number you've played isn't likely to win.

              You'd be wrong. Regardless of the drawing mechanism, there's absolutely no relationship between one number and the next. They're not even really numbers - they're just labeled balls or a bunch of random electrons. The numbers may mean something to you, but they don't mean a thing to probability.

               

              So could you say lottery results are more controlled by nature then any other factor? I'd think so... 

              Creativity..

              " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

              Million dollar operation 

              Wink

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                Wyomissing, PA
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                Posted: September 13, 2016, 1:14 pm - IP Logged

                I don't know about what goes on in other states, but in NY State, they have a liability cap on the pick 3 and pick 4 games.

                If too many bets are made on a particular number, they simply close it out. That way if that number gets drawn, they don't lose their shirt.

                Liability caps are widely utilized, though there have been notable exceptions that have resulted in some close calls. In particular, Texas All or Nothing game originally launched with no cap. I couldn't believe it, and thought, wow that's a disaster in the making. An amateur mistake one wouldn't expect from a big well known lottery.

                Needless to say, there was a close call not too long afterwards. From what I recall, 10 out of 12 of a widely played combination came up. If all 12 had come up, the liability could have possibly exceeded 1/4 billion! The game was immediately suspended and reworked. Liability cap put on and playslips altered to dissuade players from choosing pre-set combinations, such as 1-12, 13-24, all odd, all even, etc.

                With all that said, liability caps are pretty much standard fare for Pick 2, 3, 4, and 5 games. The caps vary widely, and can be variable - not set in stone. Based on past draws and some various documentation I've run across over the years, the PA Lottery Pick-3 cap is $20 million, PA Pick 4 is $10 million, and PA Pick 5 is $10 million for near certain, but may be upwards of $20 million based on past draw results of popular combinations. Caps around $5-$10 million are common for large, higher play lotteries, such as PA, NY, and FL.

                However, caps alone don't fully protect a lottery. If a quad, such as 1111, were to come up multiple times within a short period of time, a lottery can still go into the red - at least for a time. Several years ago, in PA Pick-4, many quads were drawn within a year. Bigger lotteries can better absorb multiple high wager hits than smaller, lower play lotteries, such as Delaware. The law of big numbers and, if necessary, varying the cap, can make near certain the lottery always wins in the end.

                Rambling on, but a lottery fixing a Pick-X drawing is both pointless due to the law of big numbers, but also because it can potentially back-fire and result in more higher wagered numbers being drawn than would have been otherwise. Also, too much player losing is self-defeating. Allowing more wins generally equates to more profit, overall. Lotteries are well aware of this, and have pressured state legislatures to raise the permitted payout for instant tickets. About a year ago, the PA Lottery was able to increase payback to players, and while the difference is small, the more favorable payback percentage is noticeable to very frequent players.

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                  Wyomissing, PA
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                  Posted: September 13, 2016, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

                  Is there any way to see all of the 292,201,338 possible combinations for Powerball im spreadsheet or pdf? Same for Mega Millions. I tried to search online and couldn't find anything.

                  I have an idea on how to cut the odds way down by removing certain combinations which have the least chance of being drawn. It's a crazy idea, but you never know!

                  That would be one heck of a huge spreadsheet / pdf. Not sure what good it would do, anyways.

                  Most every idea one can think of trying to beat the lottery has been studied, tried, etc numerous times by numerous people. From what I recall, there have been attempts over the years in buying huge swaths of combinations, selected mathematically as you're suggesting, for various in-state jackpot games. Biggest issues beyond the logistics of having enough money, filling out playslips, waiting for tickets to print, etc, are: Splitting the jackpot with another winner(s) or simply not winning at all. Every combination has an equal chance of occurring.

                  The odds of winning any prize for Powerball is 1 in 24.87. Or to put it more simply, roughly 24 out of every 25 plays will be a loser. Or if one prefers percentages: ~4% chance a single PB play wins verses the roughly ~96% chance of being a loser . Bottom line is one would need to eliminate a significant portion of the combinations to even have a shot of breaking even, let alone winning anything extra.

                  To digress a bit, though related, is that some ideas people have come up with actually can, or at least in the past, have worked. Such as for extended-play instant games, such as Bingo, Crossword, etc that have some of the play area already exposed. There have been instances of people being able to determine with a high degree of confidence whether an extended-play instant ticket was a winner before even scratching it. Very obscure and didn't get much news press...

                  Despite that, lotteries, or more specifically, instant ticket manufacturers, eventually took the potential threat seriously, and implemented various counter-measures. Whether those measures are sufficient, I can't say. But point is that even obscure strategies that would be difficult for one to utilize, as well as not widely publicized, are typically addressed by lotteries to protect their bottom line. There's not much, if any, low hanging fruit, so to speak, out there, especially for such widely played Pick-X games that been thoroughly studied and analyzed. Likewise with Powerball and Mega Millions.

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: September 13, 2016, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

                    This is very typical of you, Stack, and I'd think that after all these years...all the times that this same thing has been brought up and hashed by new members that it'd finally click that people are on to something. I'm simply sharing the very same observations that I've shared many times prior, and, was oftentimes the very one who introduced such observations and people appreciated that. But, not you...you seem to always feel the need to contest and warrant proof on everything while never providing any meaningful input yourself except on general stats. Listen, I enjoy giving people something to ponder over and think about in hopes that it'll cause them to become more aware of what's going on, and ultimately, become better players. The more I do this, the more YOU attempt to find something wrong with my general insight of observances with these games instead of ALSO trying to help people.

                     

                    Stack, your little story about the Ohio Lottery draw during half time of the Cavs game is a PRIME EXAMPLE of what myself and others have been discussing here the whole time. Let's have a look:

                    -The Ohio Lottery decided to do their live drawing during half time of a Cav's game. And after the machines were setup, they announced they would conduct a couple of test drawings to make sure the machines worked properly. After the second test someone in stands started yelling "I won, I won".-

                    Seems to me, that person won after only the second test was conducted. Was the second test actually the official draw?LOL Or, did they end up also winning on the next draw which was official?No Nod Which is it?What? 

                    Also, be very mindful that in the link I provided in my last post, you had absolutely NOTHING to say about the same assertions I'm still consistently making now regarding pre/post-tests and how I believe they directly affect the outcomes. 

                    Basically you're saying it's highly unlikely the combos drawn in the test will repeat in the official drawing and I agree. And I also agree it's highly the combo drawn last night will repeat tonight. But then again, isn't beating a 1 in 1000 chance "highly unlikely"?

                    I did read your comments on testing other games in the "Checking pre-test draws" thread and frankly thought it was apples and oranges. It's called "process" and it should be obvious the testing processes for roulette, craps, and card games are all different and certainly different than lottery drawing testing. The testing in each individual state lottery is different. But this is all old news and if you can't get the results of the tests before the drawing, it's all moot.

                    Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you believe the test drawings effect the official, it looks like you believe "every combination does not have the same probability?"

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: September 13, 2016, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

                      Here's yet another link on pre/post-tests and combination probability from 2009. There are some very good responses here, and, I particularly like rdgrnr's plain and simple common sense towards the machines' general structure and testing. Also, RJOH confirmed a few things currently being said here and there's a response from Stack to RJOh essentially piggy-backing on the idea of players losing during pre-tests. RJOh made the contrast of other players being happy as they lost during tests but won on the official. Even the late Paurths, whom I had many exchanges with, felt that these methods seemed to disrupt his maintaining of personal stats on combinations. Lantern does a GREAT job of breaking it all down on Page 2 with two separate posts and it's the sort of thinking based on pure logic.

                       

                      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/204555/2

                      "I don't think there should be any test draws prior to the official draw. They can prove the balls or machine isn't fixed with additional draws after the official draw. I would have more faith in a system like that."

                      I read that 4 or 5 times now and still can't see the different between doing the tests right after the drawing or before the next drawing.

                        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                        Posted: September 13, 2016, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

                        Tampering isn't the only consideration. There's also the mechanical nature of ball draws. Balls can become damaged, machine out of spec, etc. Though the main focus of pre-testing and/or post-testing, regardless of the type of machine used, is to dissuade insiders from fixing drawings, such as occurred in Pennsylvania a few decades back with the infamous Daily Number 666 draw.

                        To reiterate what I posted previously, if one believes the lottery is fixing Pick-X draws through testing and whatnot, then one would see the effects of that in lottery financial reports. Extraordinary claims (ie. lottery fixing drawings) require extraordinary evidence. Posting a series of numbers alone doesn't illustrate much, if anything.

                        You obviously don't get it. I can't explain it to you any clearer than I've already done. Crazy

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          Posted: September 13, 2016, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                          Basically you're saying it's highly unlikely the combos drawn in the test will repeat in the official drawing and I agree. And I also agree it's highly the combo drawn last night will repeat tonight. But then again, isn't beating a 1 in 1000 chance "highly unlikely"?

                          I did read your comments on testing other games in the "Checking pre-test draws" thread and frankly thought it was apples and oranges. It's called "process" and it should be obvious the testing processes for roulette, craps, and card games are all different and certainly different than lottery drawing testing. The testing in each individual state lottery is different. But this is all old news and if you can't get the results of the tests before the drawing, it's all moot.

                          Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you believe the test drawings effect the official, it looks like you believe "every combination does not have the same probability?"

                          Okay, good, now we're getting somewhere...'cooking with Crisco.' This is good conversation and I appreciate you entertaining it.Yes Nod

                          it should be obvious the testing processes for roulette, craps, and card games are all different and certainly different than lottery drawing testing.

                          All three of these are number-based games, and, all three are administered by hand. I could be wrong but, I feel pretty confident that neither of these have 'tests' associated with them between spins/rolls/deals. They will initially inspect the properties to ensure they're free of flaws, markings, and rigging but no testing process thereafter. The same wheel, cards, and dice are used over and over and over and over without issue but, I'm sure they have an SOP for switching out at some point. All the property casinos use in their gaming is also 'quality controlled', it ain't nothing that WE can get our hands on unless we're in the business.

                          The fact that the casino business absolutely entrusts their suppliers, the equipment, and, THEIR GAME ADMINISTRATORS' HANDS to satisfactorily conduct THEIR business without such tests speaks volumes. How the lotteries spend tons of money on several sophisticated draw machines, several sets of carefully balanced ping-pong balls, and DOESN'T TRUST those machines to be fired up and SINGLE DRAW a winning ball combination will always be well beyond me and so many others that know better. They should start that machine, watch the agitation for thirty seconds to a minute to ensure everything is copacetic, and then draw/drop from each chamber. If a problem is then encountered, address it.

                          You place your bet(s), they roll the dice (1) time and either you win or you don't. You choose red or black, odd/even, first-second-third group of numbers, they spin (1)time and you win or lose. They pass out a hand, the dealer does his/her thing (1) time and you win or lose. I think the probability of something either occurring or re-occurring is directly affected by how many times it has already occurred be it accidentally or intentionally. Regarding your last sentence, I'm willing to bet good money that the person at that Cavs game didn't win on the official draw...straight or boxed, and, maybe not even pairs. I wish we could ask them.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

                            grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                            Winning makes me smile.
                            bel air maryland
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                            Posted: September 13, 2016, 7:24 pm - IP Logged

                            " I would guess the odds in hitting six consecutive numbers are much higher."

                            You'd be wrong. Regardless of the drawing mechanism, there's absolutely no relationship between one number and the next. They're not even really numbers - they're just labeled balls or a bunch of random electrons. The numbers may mean something to you, but they don't mean a thing to probability.

                            "so not all combos had the same probability."

                            It's not probability once it happens. All of the combinations had the same probability whether they were drawn or not. Some were drawn, and some weren't.

                            "I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule ..."

                            You know that MM and PB have cash values, right? Try finding that on the NY Lottery's website. What you can find more easily is a statement that all games are subject to the rules, which gives them the freedom to do whatever the rules allow. That very definitely includes stopping sales of numbers when that could result in an excessive payout.

                            "Pre-tests don't prevent, but they do greatly reduce the chance of one number hitting. And that number is the last pre-test number itself, simply because of the odds against a 3 or 4 number repeat."

                            You clearly haven't understood a thing at all about every combination having the same probability. The only reason the the last number in a pre-test isn't likely to be drawn as the winning number is that there are 999 or 9999 other numbers that might be drawn. Exactly the same reason that the number you've played isn't likely to win.

                            You clearly haven't understood a thing at all about every combination having the same probability. The only reason the the last number in a pre-test isn't likely to be drawn as the winning number is that there are 999 or 9999 other numbers that might be drawn. Exactly the same reason that the number you've played isn't likely to win.

                            In regards to your last sentence. That may apply if you're using quick picks for your Pick 3- 4 numbers, but most serious players are going to study the games results and play numbers that they feel have the best chance of being drawn. Now some players may try for a 3 or 4 number repeat if their game study says there is a good chance of it happening. Others may take a "What the hell, ya never know" attitude and play it every day.

                            Either way, we're playing to win, and we are going to do what gives us the best chance to do that. If you want to play any random number off the top of your head, because they all have the same 1,000:1 or 10,000:1 probability of hitting, then knock yourself out. Most Pick 3-4 players don't do that. If they did, then what's the point of even having all the lottery websites, forums, systems, wheels, workouts, etc that are out there, or even Lottery Post itself?  Why do you think all of these things even exist? If every number has the same chance of hitting at any given time, than we don't need any of them right? And any time someone picks their own numbers and does win then it would be pure luck, and nothing whatsoever do to do with skill, or the fact that they studied their game to give them self the best chance of winning.

                            "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                            The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                            Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

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                              Posted: September 13, 2016, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

                              "Is there any way to see all of the 292,201,338 possible combinations for Powerball im spreadsheet or pdf?"

                              Sure. Did you have any other plans for the next few years?

                              "So could you say lottery results are more controlled by nature then any other factor?"

                              The entire point of the process, whether it's an RNG or a ball machine is to make sure that the selection of the winning numbers is as random as possible. As long as the results aren't somehow manipulated that makes them a simple function of probability, and probability is a function of natural laws.

                              "I think the probability of something either occurring or re-occurring is directly affected by how many times it has already occurred "

                              Some people think we never landed on the moon, or that if you flip a coin and get three heads in a row that tails is more likely on the next flip. Like you, they're wrong. The probability for flipping a coin is easy enough to test that you could do it yourself.

                              "Why do you think all of these things even exist?"

                              You know that there's a lot more to all those things than jus ideas about trying to predict what numbers are going to be drawn, right? As far as those ideas, they'll always be discussed because there are a lot of delusional people who think that past results can somehow predict future random events. The ideas make a lot of money for the people who sell them, but not the suckers who pay for them.

                                 
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