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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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Posted: September 12, 2016, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

In my view, the "big games" are the ones to really scrutinize. For larger play states (Pennsylvania, Florida, New York, etc), Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games are very reliable, stable profit generators with the house take being very near the statistical expected (ie. ~50% for PA). Likewise for states, such as, New Jersey and California, with  pari-mutuel payouts.

I suppose for some very low play lotteries, there could be a plausible threat of the lottery tampering with Pick-X draws in some way to cover past large payouts. However, to reiterate, for most lotteries, it's the "big games" to watch, since those often start in the red...

For example, from my understanding, both Powerball and Mega Million starting jackpots are not fully covered until the jackpot has rolled one or, even more, times. Likewise with various in-state lottery jackpot games. Thus it's in the best interest for lotteries for jackpot games to rollover; not having a big winner too soon.

As for those questioning whether a particular lottery is potentially fixing their Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games, look at their annual report, paying special attention to revenue verses payout for Pick-X games. In most instances, the payout should be nearly half of revenue. For example, Pick-3 sales with ~50% expected payout, had $300 million in sales, prizes paid out should be very close to $150 million. This actually came up in discussion on here awhile back with PA Lottery, and it was remarkable how close, despite high payout numbers (ie. triples) being drawn, the payout to players was within a fraction of a percent of what would be statistically expected.

If someone had a winning system for Pick-X games, lottery financial reports would near certain reflect such irregularities. It's very telling how Pick-X games have changed very little, if at all, in many states for decades. That's not to say some individuals don't come out ahead, but not enough to make a meaningful statistical difference. Lotteries don't mind paying out big occasionally - they expect to; helping to keep players engaged and coming back to wager more.

Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

I don't know about what goes on in other states, but in NY State, they have a liability cap on the pick 3 and pick 4 games.

If too many bets are made on a particular number, they simply close it out. That way if that number gets drawn, they don't lose their shirt.

The Meatman

“The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

    bobby623's avatar - abstract
    San Angelo, Texas
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    Posted: September 12, 2016, 8:38 pm - IP Logged

    I don't know about what goes on in other states, but in NY State, they have a liability cap on the pick 3 and pick 4 games.

    If too many bets are made on a particular number, they simply close it out. That way if that number gets drawn, they don't lose their shirt.

    Texas has placed liability limits for two games, All or Nothing ($5 million) and Triple Chance ($1 million).
    If the payout exceeds those amounts, they switch to pari-mutual. (ck spelling)

    I searched the NY lottery website and I can't confirm your posting.
    Seems they would stress a different payout structure for excessive winners but if that's what they do, the information is well hidden.

      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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      Posted: September 12, 2016, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

      Do you have any proof or overwhelming evidence that pre-drawing test prevent pick-3 or pick-4 combinations from being drawn?

      I never said that they prevent any specific combinations from being drawn, Stack. I basically said that it further reduces the possibility of un-drawn combinations, in partial or whole, because those pre/post-tests cannot be discounted as never having happened simply due to them being written off as tests, okay. Those combinations were still drawn, and, this falls directly into the laws of probability jurisdiction. In other words, 'what happened STILL happened' and it's now in the past awaiting its' part of future probability. Another poster eluded to stories of having won in the pre-tests but, lost in the official draw which I've also covered several times in the past. Not trying in any way to toot my own horn at all okay, but, there's just not much I haven't seen or experienced during my days of losing money on these games. Here's my most recent post, I believe, concerning losses due to pre-tests...7th and 8th replies:

       

      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/246042

      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

      #lotto-4-a-living

        TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
        Brooklyn, NY
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        Posted: September 12, 2016, 9:15 pm - IP Logged

        Texas has placed liability limits for two games, All or Nothing ($5 million) and Triple Chance ($1 million).
        If the payout exceeds those amounts, they switch to pari-mutual. (ck spelling)

        I searched the NY lottery website and I can't confirm your posting.
        Seems they would stress a different payout structure for excessive winners but if that's what they do, the information is well hidden.

        NYS does not switch to pari-mutual payout if a number exceeds their liability threshold, they just close it out and do not take any more bets on that number.

        Check this thread in LP posted back on March 6, 2008 numbers sold out?

        The Meatman

        “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

        Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

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          New York, NY
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          Posted: September 12, 2016, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

          I don't know about what goes on in other states, but in NY State, they have a liability cap on the pick 3 and pick 4 games.

          If too many bets are made on a particular number, they simply close it out. That way if that number gets drawn, they don't lose their shirt.

          Right, in NY I believe they won't pay more than $5 million on any one number drawn. The only time you ever really see a large payout on the win4 is when a 19XX number gets drawn, and if the 19 is in the front like that the payout is usually much bigger. Goes to show how people think and bet, playing familiar years, birthdays  etc..

          While I don't necessarily feel that each number has the same probability of being drawn, I do feel there is enough of a random factor in the numbers games to warrant that being said. I mean honestly, if that were true then how come there are certain numbers that have not been drawn straight in over 7 years. Or win4 numbers that have never been drawn straight, and there are many. That's not the same probablity. 

          Also, this is meant to be a joke, but if I was making $67 billion a year as the NY Lottery does year after year, I don't think there's anything that could happen to make me lose my shirt-lol. But yeah that's basic casino rules, don't get rich on winners. Seriously though, I don't think or feel the games are rigged. I honestly don't believe they are. And there's never consecutive maximum payouts. I don't think they have anything to worry about.

            bobby623's avatar - abstract
            San Angelo, Texas
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            Posted: September 12, 2016, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

            Right, in NY I believe they won't pay more than $5 million on any one number drawn. The only time you ever really see a large payout on the win4 is when a 19XX number gets drawn, and if the 19 is in the front like that the payout is usually much bigger. Goes to show how people think and bet, playing familiar years, birthdays  etc..

            While I don't necessarily feel that each number has the same probability of being drawn, I do feel there is enough of a random factor in the numbers games to warrant that being said. I mean honestly, if that were true then how come there are certain numbers that have not been drawn straight in over 7 years. Or win4 numbers that have never been drawn straight, and there are many. That's not the same probablity. 

            Also, this is meant to be a joke, but if I was making $67 billion a year as the NY Lottery does year after year, I don't think there's anything that could happen to make me lose my shirt-lol. But yeah that's basic casino rules, don't get rich on winners. Seriously though, I don't think or feel the games are rigged. I honestly don't believe they are. And there's never consecutive maximum payouts. I don't think they have anything to worry about.

            I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule where they could prohibit the sale of certain permutations, it would be stressed in their literature on prizes. It's simply not mentioned in any file that I could read.
            There are plenty of rules but nothing on lottery liability limits.

            I'm sure we would have some kind of reaction here in Texas if a player is told he or she can't play their favorite Pick 3/4 numbers.
            A lottery can't know in advance what the next winning permutation will be.
            They have to deal with the risk just like the players.

            If anyone finds a NY lottery file that spells out the limitations mentioned here, please make it available for all to read.
            Thanks.

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              New York, NY
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              Posted: September 12, 2016, 9:49 pm - IP Logged

              I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule where they could prohibit the sale of certain permutations, it would be stressed in their literature on prizes. It's simply not mentioned in any file that I could read.
              There are plenty of rules but nothing on lottery liability limits.

              I'm sure we would have some kind of reaction here in Texas if a player is told he or she can't play their favorite Pick 3/4 numbers.
              A lottery can't know in advance what the next winning permutation will be.
              They have to deal with the risk just like the players.

              If anyone finds a NY lottery file that spells out the limitations mentioned here, please make it available for all to read.
              Thanks.

              No no that's fine I understand this is a topic. I have only seen a $5 million payout on the triples numbers. I have never seen anything more than that. And it's exactly $5 mil, not a dollar more.

              Each 'type' of bet that all players make goes to the probability of an increased payout based on that specific number. Now you have a valid point in that who knows how many boxed combinations or straight combinations, or pair combinations can be used as a bet before the payout limit is reached. Most people play box on win4 numbers, which is why when the clerk tells you the number is sold out, he's usually referring to box. Not straight. Chances are you can still play it straight, because that type of bet has not been sold out. Of course with triples or quads that's different, that affects the pairs also.

              And with the new 'close enough' option here in NY, who knows if that affects the amount paid out or the overall types or amounts of bets that are made. Who knows

                MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                Posted: September 12, 2016, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

                I'm not trying to be difficult but it seems to me that if NY has a prize rule where they could prohibit the sale of certain permutations, it would be stressed in their literature on prizes. It's simply not mentioned in any file that I could read.
                There are plenty of rules but nothing on lottery liability limits.

                I'm sure we would have some kind of reaction here in Texas if a player is told he or she can't play their favorite Pick 3/4 numbers.
                A lottery can't know in advance what the next winning permutation will be.
                They have to deal with the risk just like the players.

                If anyone finds a NY lottery file that spells out the limitations mentioned here, please make it available for all to read.
                Thanks.

                No it's true. Every state does things differently i've learned. This is not a thread to accuse the lottery of being rigged I believe it is mostly random just certain aspects SEEM unrandom. My point is how to win the game is to play as such. As for number combinations being sold out certainly is true. In NY if you play those "familiar" numbers such as 1111 2222 3333 4444 etc... Birth years 1940- 1999 mostly those get sold out around here.. That is an NY thing. That is my purpose of this thread to see the similarities and differences in some states. A conclusion i've come is NY is a big state for gambling numbers. Numbers get sold out plain and simple. They dont state it on the website. But you can go in the store right before cutoff and play one of those familiar numbers and be told the number is sold out box or straight. The cashier will just hand you the straight ticket give your .50 back and tell you its sold out box. That goes to show how many people are playing hard in NY. It shows in our payouts and amount of straight wins each day. I compare that to some other states and think people really are not winning in those states. Check it out. Are those states harder to play? are there less players? the only two answers it could be in my opinion. 

                Creativity..

                " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                Million dollar operation 

                Wink

                  MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                  Posted: September 12, 2016, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

                  Texas has placed liability limits for two games, All or Nothing ($5 million) and Triple Chance ($1 million).
                  If the payout exceeds those amounts, they switch to pari-mutual. (ck spelling)

                  I searched the NY lottery website and I can't confirm your posting.
                  Seems they would stress a different payout structure for excessive winners but if that's what they do, the information is well hidden.

                  Everything isn't always stated to the public. Looking at different lottery websites some states give much more information some give less. Some have slightly different rules for these two games pick 3 & pick 4. Looking at them I honestly believe the lottery is copy written for every state and can't be copied exactly* look at different states..

                  Creativity..

                  " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                  Million dollar operation 

                  Wink

                    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                    Posted: September 12, 2016, 10:36 pm - IP Logged

                    No no that's fine I understand this is a topic. I have only seen a $5 million payout on the triples numbers. I have never seen anything more than that. And it's exactly $5 mil, not a dollar more.

                    Each 'type' of bet that all players make goes to the probability of an increased payout based on that specific number. Now you have a valid point in that who knows how many boxed combinations or straight combinations, or pair combinations can be used as a bet before the payout limit is reached. Most people play box on win4 numbers, which is why when the clerk tells you the number is sold out, he's usually referring to box. Not straight. Chances are you can still play it straight, because that type of bet has not been sold out. Of course with triples or quads that's different, that affects the pairs also.

                    And with the new 'close enough' option here in NY, who knows if that affects the amount paid out or the overall types or amounts of bets that are made. Who knows

                    I guess $5,000,000 is reasonable. I've rarely seen the payout get close on a really good payout i'd say is about $1.2 million on pick 4. All quads are usually sold out in ny if you get there late. If you like to play that kind of number. I don't ever. But those are the ones referred to when MM says they get sold out. Which is actually a good portion of the time here in ny. Other combos get sold out too I guess it matters is if NY players are seeing and thinking the same thing on that day or draw. The thing is that number can be sold out meaning they would payout $5million if it hit usually it doesn't. Meaning $5,000 x $1000 = the limit. So only $1,000 can be spent on a single straight combo each day in ny. Wow genius we just had a breakthrough in information. Just $1,000 dollars can be spent on  a single combo out of all the players! An most times it doesn't even reach that. We almost know what they're bringing in a day. 

                    Creativity..

                    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                    Million dollar operation 

                    Wink

                      MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                      Posted: September 12, 2016, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

                      Absolutely!!!  Why do the states stop selling a number when too many people play it? They don't want to pay out. It will hurt their bottom line too much.

                      So I ask you this,  If they know what numbers have been played the most before every drawing, how often do you think they will "let" that number hit?  Now that doesn't mean the long outs will hit every time either.  But if you only played, say the top 50 hitters in your state, you might do fairly well. After all they are the top 50 hitters for a reason.

                      Only 1000 dollars can be spent per straight combo then that's when the combo is "sold out". More can be spent for the box because the payouts are less. Do the math

                      Creativity..

                      " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                      Million dollar operation 

                      Wink

                        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                        Posted: September 12, 2016, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

                        NYS does not switch to pari-mutual payout if a number exceeds their liability threshold, they just close it out and do not take any more bets on that number.

                        Check this thread in LP posted back on March 6, 2008 numbers sold out?

                        NY has a bigger cap than most states. From the look of it. $5,000,000 is pretty high. 

                        Creativity..

                        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                        Million dollar operation 

                        Wink

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                          Posted: September 13, 2016, 12:11 am - IP Logged

                          I never said that they prevent any specific combinations from being drawn, Stack. I basically said that it further reduces the possibility of un-drawn combinations, in partial or whole, because those pre/post-tests cannot be discounted as never having happened simply due to them being written off as tests, okay. Those combinations were still drawn, and, this falls directly into the laws of probability jurisdiction. In other words, 'what happened STILL happened' and it's now in the past awaiting its' part of future probability. Another poster eluded to stories of having won in the pre-tests but, lost in the official draw which I've also covered several times in the past. Not trying in any way to toot my own horn at all okay, but, there's just not much I haven't seen or experienced during my days of losing money on these games. Here's my most recent post, I believe, concerning losses due to pre-tests...7th and 8th replies:

                           

                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/246042

                          "I basically said that it further reduces the possibility of un-drawn combinations, in partial or whole, because those pre/post-tests cannot be discounted as never having happened simply due to them being written off as tests, okay.  "

                          What about in states that don't publish testing results?

                          "Those combinations were still drawn, and, this falls directly into the laws of probability jurisdiction."

                          Most lotteries routinely change machines and ball sets and players don't know even if they watch the live drawings. Under those circumstances, with ball sets being changed to different drawing position machines or removed, I just can't see how probability could apply.

                          "Another poster eluded to stories of having won in the pre-tests but, lost in the official draw"

                          The Ohio Lottery decided to do their live drawing during half time of a Cav's game. And after the machines were setup, they announced they would conduct a couple of test drawings to make sure the machines worked properly. After the second test someone in stands started yelling "I won, I won".

                          So let me reword my question. Do you have any proof or overwhelming evidence that pre-drawing test prevent any pick-3 or pick-4 combination from being drawn?

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                            Posted: September 13, 2016, 12:31 am - IP Logged

                            Texas has placed liability limits for two games, All or Nothing ($5 million) and Triple Chance ($1 million).
                            If the payout exceeds those amounts, they switch to pari-mutual. (ck spelling)

                            I searched the NY lottery website and I can't confirm your posting.
                            Seems they would stress a different payout structure for excessive winners but if that's what they do, the information is well hidden.

                            You're correct, the only disclaimer I found on the N.Y. Lottery is "All transactions subject to New York Lottery and Gaming Commission rules and regulations." The Ohio Lottery site has link to their rules and regulations, but after checking several other state lottery websites, I didn't find any aggregate ticket sales limits.

                              grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
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                              bel air maryland
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                              Posted: September 13, 2016, 12:53 am - IP Logged

                              Pre-tests don't prevent, but they do greatly reduce the chance of one number hitting. And that number is the last pre-test number itself, simply because of the odds against a 3 or 4 number repeat.

                              Also since a Pick 3 or Pick 4 number doesn't usually repeat itself within 4 or 5 draws, especially straight,  if you happened to play one or more of the pre-test numbers you will most likely lose.

                              "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                              The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                              Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                                 
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