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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 15 days ago by Soledad.

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bobby623's avatar - abstract
San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
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Posted: September 14, 2016, 1:00 pm - IP Logged
WOW -You folks are going in circles - again!
There is no clear answer to the random/prediction question.
But, to say that random data can't used to predict future events is ludicrous.
It all depends on how the random data is displayed.
For example, here are 3 numerical sequences based on randomly selected winning lottery integers
for a lottery game that I track.
4 - 345444343433434443643
Analysis:
The string ends with 3.
Follower history for 3 - 4443446
What's next? 3,4,5 or 6?
Another example:
5 - 666654554566547364
Analysis:
The string ends with 4.
Follower history for 4 = 557
What's next? 4,5,6,7?
Further:
7 - 98787766688767.
Analysis:
The string ends with 7.
Follower history for 7 = 8766.
What's next? 6,7,8 or 9?
The correct answers are 6, 7, 6.
Each of these produced a single lottery integer for play.
My task was to use the above along with other data to make a choice.
I chose the second example, which yielded integer 2, which was in the
winning permutation.
FYI - I don't track pre-tests.
Now, someone wants to tell me that tracking random events is delusional??
Got some important news for you.
Thanks for your interest!
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    Wyomissing, PA
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    November 15, 2014
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    Posted: September 14, 2016, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

    There's a large element of superstition involved. Players like to have some illusion of control. Though tracking past random events may be worthwhile for predicting future, random events in limited instances to a limited degree.

    For example, say one flips a coin "heads" 10X in a row, it would seem more than likely the next flip will be "tails" despite the odds still being 1 in 2 (assuming perfect coin and only 2 possibilities; no landing on edge). Another example, same first digit, say 7, is drawn 5 Pick-3 drawings in a row, it would seem highly likely the next draw will feature a different first digit other than 7. But this is not for certain. It's quite possible "heads" occurs a 11th, 12th, etc time; 7 in the first position is drawn again for the 6th, 7th, etc draw.

    Biggest issue with the lottery is the house advantage, often 50% or so, is so large that it will far overshadow any advantage, real or imagined, of a lottery system that relies on analyzing past drawn numbers.

    Another factor to consider, there's a spookiness to random numbers that often lead players astray chasing winning combinations; beating themselves up for missing what seemed so obvious in retrospect, such as triples occurring 3 times in a week thinking they could have cashed in, if only they'd somehow caught on to the pattern.

    Though paradoxically, patterns can be expected, and often exist, for a large set of similar random events, but there's no certain way to predict the outcome of a particular event. For example, analyze 10 million Pick-3 draws and one should find the occurrence of all digits to nearly exactly equal, and all 1,000 possible combinations occurring in near identical proportions. Larger the sample, the more evident the pattern. However, to reiterate, for all practical purposes, is of zero help when it comes to predicting what the next number / combination will be with any certainty.

      bobby623's avatar - abstract
      San Angelo, Texas
      United States
      Member #1097
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      Posted: September 14, 2016, 2:29 pm - IP Logged

      There's a large element of superstition involved. Players like to have some illusion of control. Though tracking past random events may be worthwhile for predicting future, random events in limited instances to a limited degree.

      For example, say one flips a coin "heads" 10X in a row, it would seem more than likely the next flip will be "tails" despite the odds still being 1 in 2 (assuming perfect coin and only 2 possibilities; no landing on edge). Another example, same first digit, say 7, is drawn 5 Pick-3 drawings in a row, it would seem highly likely the next draw will feature a different first digit other than 7. But this is not for certain. It's quite possible "heads" occurs a 11th, 12th, etc time; 7 in the first position is drawn again for the 6th, 7th, etc draw.

      Biggest issue with the lottery is the house advantage, often 50% or so, is so large that it will far overshadow any advantage, real or imagined, of a lottery system that relies on analyzing past drawn numbers.

      Another factor to consider, there's a spookiness to random numbers that often lead players astray chasing winning combinations; beating themselves up for missing what seemed so obvious in retrospect, such as triples occurring 3 times in a week thinking they could have cashed in, if only they'd somehow caught on to the pattern.

      Though paradoxically, patterns can be expected, and often exist, for a large set of similar random events, but there's no certain way to predict the outcome of a particular event. For example, analyze 10 million Pick-3 draws and one should find the occurrence of all digits to nearly exactly equal, and all 1,000 possible combinations occurring in near identical proportions. Larger the sample, the more evident the pattern. However, to reiterate, for all practical purposes, is of zero help when it comes to predicting what the next number / combination will be with any certainty.

      It's amazing how some folks faced with evidence that long held beliefs are wrong just keep trucking along with their heads in the clouds.
      Please explain how the evidence I've presented is based on superstition.
      Actually, it's based on 'substitution,' which is a concept that is apparently too difficult for the folks involved in this thread to handle.

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
        Texas
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        Posted: September 14, 2016, 2:48 pm - IP Logged

        Yes, we have arrived at the crux of this probability issue and I'm still wandering about this one little thing:

         

        Why do players research past draw history, to produce their combinations for current plays, if probability has no affect on future numerical combinations probability, and,  the players' desire to utilize the corresponding probability as their tool? What? Help me out.

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

          psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

          United States
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          May 30, 2004
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          Posted: September 14, 2016, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

          There's a large element of superstition involved. Players like to have some illusion of control. Though tracking past random events may be worthwhile for predicting future, random events in limited instances to a limited degree.

          For example, say one flips a coin "heads" 10X in a row, it would seem more than likely the next flip will be "tails" despite the odds still being 1 in 2 (assuming perfect coin and only 2 possibilities; no landing on edge). Another example, same first digit, say 7, is drawn 5 Pick-3 drawings in a row, it would seem highly likely the next draw will feature a different first digit other than 7. But this is not for certain. It's quite possible "heads" occurs a 11th, 12th, etc time; 7 in the first position is drawn again for the 6th, 7th, etc draw.

          Biggest issue with the lottery is the house advantage, often 50% or so, is so large that it will far overshadow any advantage, real or imagined, of a lottery system that relies on analyzing past drawn numbers.

          Another factor to consider, there's a spookiness to random numbers that often lead players astray chasing winning combinations; beating themselves up for missing what seemed so obvious in retrospect, such as triples occurring 3 times in a week thinking they could have cashed in, if only they'd somehow caught on to the pattern.

          Though paradoxically, patterns can be expected, and often exist, for a large set of similar random events, but there's no certain way to predict the outcome of a particular event. For example, analyze 10 million Pick-3 draws and one should find the occurrence of all digits to nearly exactly equal, and all 1,000 possible combinations occurring in near identical proportions. Larger the sample, the more evident the pattern. However, to reiterate, for all practical purposes, is of zero help when it comes to predicting what the next number / combination will be with any certainty.

           MM$: Good post, just ran accro$$ "IT".....................Hurray!.........................Hyper

           R5995:

          You are correct on 90% to 95% of UR information & thanks for calling this post to my attention as it was UR post that got my attention. Psyko has been through many winning streaks and many more losing streaks thru out the

          many years of plays. Have been out in the cold all summer with an Ugly amount of losses on the jackpot game me like to play. At first Psyko tried to blame it on the Global Freezing crowd due to the cold spell of my lottery results.

          Now Psyko in a hot spell with my lottery results and now hope the Global Warming crowd will "shut-up" and let it be the "hottest" streak of warming the world has ever experenced in the history of all lottery players in this world.

          Oh yeah R5995 U have to use statistics probability plus 5% weather factor = 100% solution to win the lottery!

            MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
            Ny
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            Posted: September 14, 2016, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

            I truly believe it's more then just the numbers and past results that  need to be investigated in a winning method. It is more so the situations and scenarios that can be better tracked than the digits. Situations such as even/odd ratios and how they switch very rapidly unlike the digits. (Pen & paper to track this information if you don't already) High and low digits ratios. This will help you beat the lottery as far as pick 4 & 3. Combinations are partially blinding. The real secrets hide within the scenarios and ratios. Sometimes we are going nowhere fast til we break it down one step further. 

            Creativity..

            " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

            Million dollar operation 

            Wink

              Avatar
              Kentucky
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              Posted: September 14, 2016, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

              Yes, we have arrived at the crux of this probability issue and I'm still wandering about this one little thing:

               

              Why do players research past draw history, to produce their combinations for current plays, if probability has no affect on future numerical combinations probability, and,  the players' desire to utilize the corresponding probability as their tool? What? Help me out.

              "Why do players research past draw history, to produce their combinations for current plays, if probability has no affect on future numerical combinations probability,"

              Are you talking about the probability that about 72% of next 1000 drawings will have three different digits, about 27% will have two, will be mostly even, mostly low, etc.?

              There also is a formula based on probability and standard devation that determines how many of the 1000 combos will be drawn in the next 1000.

              "and,  the players' desire to utilize the corresponding probability as their too?"

              I'm on the "all ten digits in each digit position have an equal chance of being drawn" side of the discussion so IMO at best past drawings only verify probability plus or minus standard deviation. It's possible the term "probability" is being misused. There is a huge difference between single and multiple event probability.

                grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                Winning makes me smile.
                bel air maryland
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                Posted: September 14, 2016, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

                 According to Webster's.

                RANDOM adj.  1: Lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern.  2: Being a member of, consisting of, or relating to a set of elements that have a definite probability of occurring with a specific frequency.

                Every one that studies the lottery games KNOWS that there are patterns to the drawn numbers. We look for them, track them, and study them to learn when they will occur. Some patterns occur long term, some occur short term, but they ARE there.

                A perfect example is the Old Mans Zero rule. (Search it if you don't know what it is.) Certain numbers bringing doubles, or pairs, flipping 6 and 9 etc. These are things that happen over and over again. There are many, many, more that have been discussed several times here over the years. Which kind of goes against the part of the random definition that says ... Lacking a pattern. The players know better. The only ones that deny it are lottery officials.

                The lotteries all say that every thing is completely random, which is what they MUST do. If there was any suspicion in the general publics minds that the games were fixed there wouldn't be any one left to play. That being said there are times you have to wonder. Tennessee and their lack of doubles comes to mind. Which the players knew wasn't right. Again this has been discussed here before. 

                Bottom line, if you want to win, you have to study the game, and know the state where you play. The states do the same things over and over. It's up to you to figure out what that is if you want to win.

                "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                  bobby623's avatar - abstract
                  San Angelo, Texas
                  United States
                  Member #1097
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                  Posted: September 14, 2016, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

                  Don't know why folks don't understand how winning integers are chosen,
                  It's a two-step process where a certain number of balls are thoroughly mixed in one or more vessels.
                  During this mixing process, a certain number of balls escape to become winning integers.
                  It's a totally random process because the machines are dumb, have no memory and outcomes are not managed.
                  The rub  comes after the drawing when the human element gets involved.
                  Some folks view the outcome as non-random because of coincidental repeats, and make all kinds of statements about the ball selection process being managed in some way. Course they can never specify how the managing occurs.
                   These statements are wrong. It makes good reading but to say that the selection is not random is totally false.
                  Lottery games are played in boxes with definite limits. Repeats are to be expected but they are coincidental, not planned, as some folks think.
                  Every lottery game can be broken down to smallest pieces. There are many identifiable characteristics.
                  But the problem for gamblers is figuring out when certain characteristics will surface.
                  Some folks can read the trends and make winning choices.
                  Some people are losers, will always be losers because it's always easy to blame the process than accept personal responsibility.
                  A lot of folks use some kind of workout to guide their choices, others apparently are not smart enough to figure it out on their own.
                  Too bad.

                    Avatar
                    New York, NY
                    United States
                    Member #140634
                    March 23, 2013
                    2960 Posts
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                    Posted: September 14, 2016, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                    I truly believe it's more then just the numbers and past results that  need to be investigated in a winning method. It is more so the situations and scenarios that can be better tracked than the digits. Situations such as even/odd ratios and how they switch very rapidly unlike the digits. (Pen & paper to track this information if you don't already) High and low digits ratios. This will help you beat the lottery as far as pick 4 & 3. Combinations are partially blinding. The real secrets hide within the scenarios and ratios. Sometimes we are going nowhere fast til we break it down one step further. 

                    Of course that all does make sense. But when you include every single draw in your thoughts, it will throw you off. Which is what they probably expect people to think with the pre test draws as well, which is why they don't care.

                    You can't open the doors all the way using every single angle, but you can open the door enough to get through using a key. It's about finding that key and not forgetting how to open the door, because it will open it again. There may be other clues etc, but they will lead back to that one key that is able to open the door in the first place. Metaphorically speaking. There may be different roads, but they all lead to the same place. That's how to conquer these games.

                    Past results are my key. They will always open that door for me sooner or later. Prime example-tonight's pick 3 in NY. It's no coincidence. While each ball does have the same chance of being drawn as the others, that idea really doesn't matter with certain draws. It's about not forgetting your goal and making sure that you open that door when you should. There are many distractions to throw you off, that's how they want you to think, because that's how they make their money.

                    You do have a point with states to states being different though. The same methods don't work in all

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                      Wyomissing, PA
                      United States
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                      November 15, 2014
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                      Posted: September 14, 2016, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

                       According to Webster's.

                      RANDOM adj.  1: Lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern.  2: Being a member of, consisting of, or relating to a set of elements that have a definite probability of occurring with a specific frequency.

                      Every one that studies the lottery games KNOWS that there are patterns to the drawn numbers. We look for them, track them, and study them to learn when they will occur. Some patterns occur long term, some occur short term, but they ARE there.

                      A perfect example is the Old Mans Zero rule. (Search it if you don't know what it is.) Certain numbers bringing doubles, or pairs, flipping 6 and 9 etc. These are things that happen over and over again. There are many, many, more that have been discussed several times here over the years. Which kind of goes against the part of the random definition that says ... Lacking a pattern. The players know better. The only ones that deny it are lottery officials.

                      The lotteries all say that every thing is completely random, which is what they MUST do. If there was any suspicion in the general publics minds that the games were fixed there wouldn't be any one left to play. That being said there are times you have to wonder. Tennessee and their lack of doubles comes to mind. Which the players knew wasn't right. Again this has been discussed here before. 

                      Bottom line, if you want to win, you have to study the game, and know the state where you play. The states do the same things over and over. It's up to you to figure out what that is if you want to win.

                      Has anyone ever formulated a "winning" lottery system that generated consistent profit? If no, that's a very good indication lottery drawings are likely close to random. But even if not fully random, that's still of limited usefulness. Typical Pick-X lottery games have a house advantage of ~40-50%. That's a huge hurdle for any system to beat.

                      Speaking of Tennessee and lack of doubles due to computer programming error. From what I recall, even if a player was aware of the issue and attempted to exploit the flaw, they were still at a statistical disadvantage. Likewise with all the other publicized examples of computer RNG issues. Beating the lottery playing Pick-X is near impossible. Heck, consider the challenges card counters have beating Black Jack (21) and that's with a slight positive player advantage over the house. With Pick-X lottery games, barring some special promotion, the player is always at a huge disadvantage.

                      In short, if someone had a Pick-X system that even remotely worked, they'd be raking in millions in profits much like the various infamous Black Jack (21) card counters did. Sure, it's fun to dream and try various number / wagering strategies while keeping in mind the statistics and house advantage of lottery games.

                        Avatar
                        New York, NY
                        United States
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                        March 23, 2013
                        2960 Posts
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                        Posted: September 14, 2016, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

                        Has anyone ever formulated a "winning" lottery system that generated consistent profit? If no, that's a very good indication lottery drawings are likely close to random. But even if not fully random, that's still of limited usefulness. Typical Pick-X lottery games have a house advantage of ~40-50%. That's a huge hurdle for any system to beat.

                        Speaking of Tennessee and lack of doubles due to computer programming error. From what I recall, even if a player was aware of the issue and attempted to exploit the flaw, they were still at a statistical disadvantage. Likewise with all the other publicized examples of computer RNG issues. Beating the lottery playing Pick-X is near impossible. Heck, consider the challenges card counters have beating Black Jack (21) and that's with a slight positive player advantage over the house. With Pick-X lottery games, barring some special promotion, the player is always at a huge disadvantage.

                        In short, if someone had a Pick-X system that even remotely worked, they'd be raking in millions in profits much like the various infamous Black Jack (21) card counters did. Sure, it's fun to dream and try various number / wagering strategies while keeping in mind the statistics and house advantage of lottery games.

                        No they're 100% random. It's not the numbers you should be so focused on, it's when they come out that's the real distraction. I have a system, I've seen a few others here that are very very good. But making money off it, well that's a whole different story. It's human nature to err. It is a huge hurdle. And it is very tough.

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                          Texas
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                          January 30, 2010
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                          Posted: September 14, 2016, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

                           According to Webster's.

                          RANDOM adj.  1: Lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern.  2: Being a member of, consisting of, or relating to a set of elements that have a definite probability of occurring with a specific frequency.

                          Every one that studies the lottery games KNOWS that there are patterns to the drawn numbers. We look for them, track them, and study them to learn when they will occur. Some patterns occur long term, some occur short term, but they ARE there.

                          A perfect example is the Old Mans Zero rule. (Search it if you don't know what it is.) Certain numbers bringing doubles, or pairs, flipping 6 and 9 etc. These are things that happen over and over again. There are many, many, more that have been discussed several times here over the years. Which kind of goes against the part of the random definition that says ... Lacking a pattern. The players know better. The only ones that deny it are lottery officials.

                          The lotteries all say that every thing is completely random, which is what they MUST do. If there was any suspicion in the general publics minds that the games were fixed there wouldn't be any one left to play. That being said there are times you have to wonder. Tennessee and their lack of doubles comes to mind. Which the players knew wasn't right. Again this has been discussed here before. 

                          Bottom line, if you want to win, you have to study the game, and know the state where you play. The states do the same things over and over. It's up to you to figure out what that is if you want to win.

                          Thank you, grwurston, for how you opened your response here.Thumbs Up You have once again confirmed that it's impossible to CREATE RANDOM if utilizing any such process to select numbers with. No No You've been around a long time an I've read lots of your commentary...and you're very consistent.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

                            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                            Texas
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                            January 30, 2010
                            1648 Posts
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                            Posted: September 15, 2016, 2:52 pm - IP Logged

                            Has anyone ever formulated a "winning" lottery system that generated consistent profit?

                            Yes, there are players everywhere that have winning systems. Some 'may' be members here while others aren't but, will visit this site to read and see what's going on in the lottery world and politics forum. Consistent can be defined in numerous ways and it's not solely based on winning every single time on every wager. If a player has a system which allows them to win 'X' amount of times for 'X' amount of plays and they remain ahead financially-profit-wise, then this is also defined as consistent. Another form of consistence with the Pick games is actually when they player doesn't actually make money but, is still able to still recover losses at some point which is good. Any player that goes into either of these games thinking it's hard or impossible to beat, then they'll likely not be successful with progression, or, towards overcoming that thought process.

                            Though we've been discussing issues with probabilities and pre-post tests here, there are still ways to wade through all the BS practices implemented by the commissions. There's a common sense reason why those with 'truly' successful approaches will never divulge such information and I'm including two links with lots of commentary on just why...and it's all numbers-based.

                             https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/272779

                            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/133832

                             

                            In the first link, there are great responses but, please read my very first response towards the bottom of the first page. From there, the rest are pretty much are self explanatory while thevery last response, on Page 4, to one of my previous responses kinda wraps it all up a bit further on a more personal level. 

                            In the second link, please scroll down and read the late great Paurths response to the danger(s) of sharing a truly winning system in too much detail abroad. That comment was made in 2006 while my same exact sentiments were made eight years later on February 28, 2014 after Paurths had already passed away on January 31, 2014. Someone actually made it their business to tell me that he was on the same page and where to find it. There's a percentage of gamblers, not just players, in this game that really understand its' nature and aren't going public with anything that's gonna disrupt their cash flow. It's just business. In closing, just because you can't or don't actually see it, and, cannot readily prove it doesn't mean it's not happening or isn't possible.

                            Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                            There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                            #lotto-4-a-living

                              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                              Posted: September 15, 2016, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

                              Don't know why folks don't understand how winning integers are chosen,
                              It's a two-step process where a certain number of balls are thoroughly mixed in one or more vessels.
                              During this mixing process, a certain number of balls escape to become winning integers.
                              It's a totally random process because the machines are dumb, have no memory and outcomes are not managed.
                              The rub  comes after the drawing when the human element gets involved.
                              Some folks view the outcome as non-random because of coincidental repeats, and make all kinds of statements about the ball selection process being managed in some way. Course they can never specify how the managing occurs.
                               These statements are wrong. It makes good reading but to say that the selection is not random is totally false.
                              Lottery games are played in boxes with definite limits. Repeats are to be expected but they are coincidental, not planned, as some folks think.
                              Every lottery game can be broken down to smallest pieces. There are many identifiable characteristics.
                              But the problem for gamblers is figuring out when certain characteristics will surface.
                              Some folks can read the trends and make winning choices.
                              Some people are losers, will always be losers because it's always easy to blame the process than accept personal responsibility.
                              A lot of folks use some kind of workout to guide their choices, others apparently are not smart enough to figure it out on their own.
                              Too bad.

                              This is hands down the most ignorant thing I've read since being on LP. You have to be he most clueless person on the planet. Wow!...Just wow !

                                 
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