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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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New York, NY
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March 23, 2013
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Posted: September 21, 2016, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it straight or box.. what do the people think?

Once I played the number 7223 in NY for around 2 years every day. I believed that too. It did finally come. As 7322. And boy was i teased many times too during, one off, close, etc. The guy in the store had the number memorized every time i walked in, lol. As long as it's not a double double or a triple, that is for the most part true. The more numbers you play everyday though, the less the chances of making a profit are.

    p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
    WA
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    Posted: September 21, 2016, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

    I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it straight or box.. what do the people think?

    what's important is what you think. yes the combination, if play long enough, eventually you will hit but you either even out or lose more than what you win back. No one can beat the games, if you play everyday, you WILL end up draining your hard earned money. No probability will beat the odds and no systems that will take over any of the games. 

    Here's my 10 steps. 

    1. I play on spreadsheets - meaning pretended that I play
    2. Learn the numbers - by this I mean not just looking at the history, but look at the beginning of the year and find patterns
    3. Patterns are just what you make of it, the patterns I see are different than yours and every one else. 
    4. When I find the patterns, I red mark/bookmark, cite them, and wait.
    5. When the patterns return, I work on numbers, for sure the numbers that were found to have a pattern will NOT show up again, so repeat is out of the question
    6. I play real $. Only amount that won't hurt my pocket. 
    7. If no hit, I go back to step 1. 
    8. If hit, I start all over again, this time, item #2 is started slightly different. Instead of the beginning of the year, start from the winning #. 
    9. There are multiple ways to find patterns, my ways only focus on two - double double numbers (i.e. 6161,2121,1717) and consecutive numbers (i.e.1234,2345,3456).
    10. Rule of thumb, do not play everyday. 

    hope that helps!

    playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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      Posted: September 21, 2016, 9:09 pm - IP Logged

      As Lucky Loser wrote earlier about  pre tests that show the same numbers in a row force the officials to change he ball set, but when the official draws have consecutive numbers, that's okay with the officials. What a bunch of crap.

       

      The new Florida Pick-2 game. Yeah, that's random, MY ASS !

      Sept. 16 eve-01

      Sept. 17 eve-04

      Sept. 18 eve-50

      Sept. 19 eve-60

      Sept. 20 eve-20

      Sept. 21 eve-70

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: September 21, 2016, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

        Lucky Loser,

        The roulette wheels are checked to make sure they are not biased, the dice are put in micrometers and measured to 1,10,000th of an inch, the cards for card games are checked to make sure they are full decks and haven't been tampered with, etc.....

        Terrible analogy.

        The Roulette wheel is not checked to make sure they are not biased FIVE TIMES before each spin, and FIVE times after. DUH!!!!!!

         

        The dice aren't measured by micrometers FIVE times before each roll and FIVE times after. (Before you reply by saying that there's no way dice can be tampered in that short period of time between deals, watch a professional magician at work!... DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

         

        The card decks aren't checked FIVE times before and Five times after each deal..>DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

         

        They don't check the slot machines FIVE times before and FIVE after the person pulls the handle or hits the button........DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

         

        Some of you people are trying so hard to dig from the bottom of the barrel, it hurts to read. Crazy

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: September 21, 2016, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

          amber123,

          I was replying to Lucky Loser's post. 

          Reading your post here made me want to ask what casino you ever worked in but you having said "dice being tampered with between deals" there's no need to ask the question.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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            Posted: September 21, 2016, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

            amber123,

            I was replying to Lucky Loser's post. 

            Reading your post here made me want to ask what casino you ever worked in but you having said "dice being tampered with between deals" there's no need to ask the question.

            I don't care if you were replying to the pope, in my opinion you made an erroneous statement which needed to be corrected.

            As far as your second sentence, you are rambling.

              CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
              ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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              Posted: September 22, 2016, 6:46 am - IP Logged

              I believe, without any doubt, we can say, Florida Lottery Draws are not RANDOM!!!

                Elizabeth03's avatar - cat anm.gif
                Nova Scotia
                Canada
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                December 27, 2004
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                Posted: September 22, 2016, 11:56 am - IP Logged

                I would just like to win a decent amount, so I can move away!!

                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                  Texas
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                  Posted: September 22, 2016, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

                  I would just like to win a decent amount, so I can move away!!

                  That's funny. You want to move away and there are people in the US that want to move to Canada.

                  CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                  A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                    Texas
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                    Posted: September 22, 2016, 12:47 pm - IP Logged
                    Why are you folks making such a fuss over something you have no control over.
                    Pre-tests are and will always be a part of the mix, like it or not.
                    I struggled with the pre-tests years ago, but I eventually decided it was a waste of time.
                    I know there is a lot of stuff  going on before the official draw but none of it pays a prize.
                    So, I just block it out.
                    I realize any of my Pick 3/4 plays could show up in a pre-test, but I just don't think about
                    it. If I did, I'd be upset, but, there are many other ways to lose.
                    The most important question in lottery play is - What's Next?
                    All of the answers are found in the winning integers.
                    Someone mentioned in a post that the lottery outcomes are on a natural forward path determined by all of the known factors, including the pre-tests.
                    For what it's worth - I agree.
                    I once thought that my game history file had to include every official drawing.
                    Well, again, for what it's worth, I only track the drawing immediately before the
                    drawing I play.
                    At present, I play Texas Pick 3 Eve drawings using only history from prior Day drawings.
                    Texas has 4 drawings per day.
                    I play the Pick 4 Day drawings using history for the Morning drawings.
                    If I'm not able to choose my plays for the designated drawing, I just skip it.
                    There will always be another drawing.

                    I realize any of my Pick 3/4 plays could show up in a pre-test, but I just don't think about
                    it. If I did, I'd be upset, but, there are many other ways to lose.

                    I can agree with you to a agree here but, bobby, the actual and main way to lose on these games is when your numbers AREN'T drawn at all...in partial or wholeSmash. Granted, this argument can go the other way with matching nothing in the pre-test and hitting in the official but, why choose winnersSmile and losersP***ed with such a multi-draw processWhat?? With the sophistication of their machines and all their security, man, a single draw to collect and pay all winners is plenty in my opinion. Yes Nod Check this out, bobby. You've entered a lottery to win a brand new truck and have been contacted to show up at the dealer on 'X' date. You show up and they make sure that all finalists are present and qualified, okay, then pass around a box full of cards with numbers telling you to pull (1) out. They then roll out a machine full of balls explaining that they'll draw (4) times prior to the winning draw... the fifth one winning wins the truck. Your number(s) are pulled on the third draw while the person next to you wins on the fifth one.No NodSadPukeWould you then still say:

                    I know there is a lot of stuff  going on before the official draw but none of it pays a prize.
                    So, I just block it out.

                    Pre-tests are and will always be a part of the mix, like it or not.

                     there are many other ways to lose.

                    What's Next?

                    All of the answers are found in the winning integers.

                    There will always be another drawing.

                    bobby, did you actually have the keys to that truck on the third draw? Or, did they just happen to draw your winning number(s) numbers on that 'unofficial' drawShockedYes NodEek? How many more times will you have to actually win THAT truck?No No

                     

                    Lurking

                    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                    #lotto-4-a-living

                      wander73's avatar - Lottery-038.jpg
                      Philadelphia, PA
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                      Posted: September 22, 2016, 2:12 pm - IP Logged

                      You are absolutely right.The future numbers depends on the current pattern ,diagonal 2 number patterns, and that goes for all lotteries. for instance 69   59  diagonal,the future numbers will be   dependant on that pattern.I wont say how but study the numbers and you will see.

                      I am still waiting for your math.  Haven't heard from you in a while.

                        bobby623's avatar - abstract
                        San Angelo, Texas
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                        Posted: September 22, 2016, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

                        I realize any of my Pick 3/4 plays could show up in a pre-test, but I just don't think about
                        it. If I did, I'd be upset, but, there are many other ways to lose.

                        I can agree with you to a agree here but, bobby, the actual and main way to lose on these games is when your numbers AREN'T drawn at all...in partial or wholeSmash. Granted, this argument can go the other way with matching nothing in the pre-test and hitting in the official but, why choose winnersSmile and losersP***ed with such a multi-draw processWhat?? With the sophistication of their machines and all their security, man, a single draw to collect and pay all winners is plenty in my opinion. Yes Nod Check this out, bobby. You've entered a lottery to win a brand new truck and have been contacted to show up at the dealer on 'X' date. You show up and they make sure that all finalists are present and qualified, okay, then pass around a box full of cards with numbers telling you to pull (1) out. They then roll out a machine full of balls explaining that they'll draw (4) times prior to the winning draw... the fifth one winning wins the truck. Your number(s) are pulled on the third draw while the person next to you wins on the fifth one.No NodSadPukeWould you then still say:

                        I know there is a lot of stuff  going on before the official draw but none of it pays a prize.
                        So, I just block it out.

                        Pre-tests are and will always be a part of the mix, like it or not.

                         there are many other ways to lose.

                        What's Next?

                        All of the answers are found in the winning integers.

                        There will always be another drawing.

                        bobby, did you actually have the keys to that truck on the third draw? Or, did they just happen to draw your winning number(s) numbers on that 'unofficial' drawShockedYes NodEek? How many more times will you have to actually win THAT truck?No No

                         

                        Lurking

                        Winning any lottery game is difficult, not impossible, but it certainly takes more than a little attention to details. 
                        I have paper and pencil workouts for all the Texas games.
                        A lot of work keeping all of the tracking charts up-to-date.
                        I don't have time to worry about something I have no control over, i.e., pre-tests.
                        I just can't imagine any system player processing 6 Lotto Texas pre-tests, and then the official drawing.
                        Sorry, but I don't have that much extra time to do processing work that doesn't pay.
                        I understand how some folks believe that the pre-test breaks whatever line of thought they may be following to generate their personal
                        picks, but that's life. We have to deal with it best we can.
                        Truth is, I use substitution methods and the presence or absence of pre-tests does not affect integer selection.
                        IMHO - the central and most important question is how we, as individual players, view lottery play.
                        A lot of folks believe there is a mathematical solution. If there were, we wouldn't have lotteries.
                        A lot of folks believe the lottery balls are self-aware and communicate with each other to frustrate the gamblers.
                        I consider the balls nothing more than blocks of wood that can be arranged and rearranged to provide useful trend charts.
                        There is a lot of activity that occurs before the official drawing.
                        If we start believing that any of those activities can impact on our particular integer selections, we are in trouble because there no way
                        to adjust, particularly to the unknown factors.
                        So, why make lottery play any harder than it needs to be??
                        I've found ways to adjust, and I'm winning - now and then.
                        Unfortunately, Texas lottery pays cash prizes, not trucks.
                        You have to visit a Dealer, eat his cheap hot dogs and match a fake ignition key - to the one the Manager has in his pocket.
                        Good luck with that!

                          Avatar
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                          Posted: September 22, 2016, 3:34 pm - IP Logged

                          "The result will the same as the day before for at least 2 days in a row."

                          No it won't. All you're doing is showing an example of one particular series of results that happened in the past. We already know that the same result will  sometimes repeat, and probability tells us how often it will happen. What we don't know is when it will happen. With only two choices (H/T, odd/even) yesterday's result can be expected to repeat the next day half of the time, and to repeat for the next two days 25% of the time, but you can never say with certainty that it will happen the next day or next two days.

                          "That to me is predicting future results."

                          That you are sometimes right as a result of simple probability isn't prediction.

                           

                          "And don't send me your starter replacement bill."

                          Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

                          "WOW!...some people are just plain dumb !!!!!!"

                          Well, at least you get something right once in a while.

                           

                          "To remotely assert that the lotteries would conduct a completely 'blind' operation without an idea of how much they'd win or lose is absurd"

                          Of course it is, and I haven't done that. All I've said is that they rely on simple probability to know how much they'll profit. When they sell pick 3 tickets for $1 each and pay $500 for winning they know that in the long term they're going to sell $1000 worth of tickets for every $500 they pay out for a winning ticket. The same is true for pick 4, MM and PB, and the various other state lotto games. The selection of winning numbers is the completely random result of probability, but there's nothing blind about the number of winners and losers that will result.

                          Of course the article you linked to has nothing to do with that. Scratchers differ from the online games in that they rely on randomness in distributing the tickets,  but the tickets themselves aren't generated randomly. Instead the lottery determines a payout structure and then deliberately issues tickets that have the necessary number of winners (in all necessary amounts) and losers; they even provide you with that information if you're smart enough to look for it. The statistician who "cracked" the lottery simply figured out that for one particular game he could usually determine if a particular ticket was a winner if he already knew some of that ticket's attributes.

                           

                          "Have you done any back-testing"

                          It's not a type of cognitive bias, but belief in back testing is somewhat similar. It's a form of circular reasoning, and relies on past results to predict past results. If it doesn't confirm what you hope it will you've made some kind of an error.

                           

                          "Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?"

                          You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

                           

                          " -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

                          The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn"

                          What stack's statement shows is that he's got a better understanding of probability than you do. In a random selection each number has the same probability of being selected, but that's completely different than each number being selected the same number of times. Given a large enough number of selections random probability will tend to result in a uniform distribution, but that's not the same thing as an equal distribution. It should be obvious if you give it just a tiny bit of thought. If you roll a die three times and get 2, 3 and 5 then it's more likely that the first 12 rolls will have two 2's than two 6's and that the first 18 rolls will have three 2's than three 6's simply because you've already gotten the first 2 but not the first 6. You need fewer 2's than 6's to have the repeats you're looking for. As the sample size gets larger the distribution tends to get closer to being equal, but there's no magical force that demands that it be equal. If you look at past results of pick 3 or 4, lotto, and similar games you'll find that the frequency with which each number has been selected can always be plotted as a bell curve. Some numbers being selected a bit more often and some a bit less is what we expect from random probability.

                           

                          "I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times"

                          Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

                           

                          "I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it"

                          You're right. If you try often enough it will happen.  There's only  a problem with the thinking if you think that offers you a useful guarantee. Even if you could be positive that playing 123 for pick 3 guaranteed that you'd win once every 1000 days you'd still lose half of your money, but you can't even be sure it will happen once in 1000 tries. The actual chances of a particular P3 number being drawn in 1000 tries is a bit less than 2 in 3. That's balanced by a 1 in 3 chance that it would be drawn twice, but even then you'd only break even.

                          That last is an excellent example of how an exactly equal chance of being selected results in the possible numbers being selected a different number of times.

                            MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                            Ny
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                            July 5, 2015
                            1807 Posts
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                            Posted: September 22, 2016, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                            "The result will the same as the day before for at least 2 days in a row."

                            No it won't. All you're doing is showing an example of one particular series of results that happened in the past. We already know that the same result will  sometimes repeat, and probability tells us how often it will happen. What we don't know is when it will happen. With only two choices (H/T, odd/even) yesterday's result can be expected to repeat the next day half of the time, and to repeat for the next two days 25% of the time, but you can never say with certainty that it will happen the next day or next two days.

                            "That to me is predicting future results."

                            That you are sometimes right as a result of simple probability isn't prediction.

                             

                            "And don't send me your starter replacement bill."

                            Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

                            "WOW!...some people are just plain dumb !!!!!!"

                            Well, at least you get something right once in a while.

                             

                            "To remotely assert that the lotteries would conduct a completely 'blind' operation without an idea of how much they'd win or lose is absurd"

                            Of course it is, and I haven't done that. All I've said is that they rely on simple probability to know how much they'll profit. When they sell pick 3 tickets for $1 each and pay $500 for winning they know that in the long term they're going to sell $1000 worth of tickets for every $500 they pay out for a winning ticket. The same is true for pick 4, MM and PB, and the various other state lotto games. The selection of winning numbers is the completely random result of probability, but there's nothing blind about the number of winners and losers that will result.

                            Of course the article you linked to has nothing to do with that. Scratchers differ from the online games in that they rely on randomness in distributing the tickets,  but the tickets themselves aren't generated randomly. Instead the lottery determines a payout structure and then deliberately issues tickets that have the necessary number of winners (in all necessary amounts) and losers; they even provide you with that information if you're smart enough to look for it. The statistician who "cracked" the lottery simply figured out that for one particular game he could usually determine if a particular ticket was a winner if he already knew some of that ticket's attributes.

                             

                            "Have you done any back-testing"

                            It's not a type of cognitive bias, but belief in back testing is somewhat similar. It's a form of circular reasoning, and relies on past results to predict past results. If it doesn't confirm what you hope it will you've made some kind of an error.

                             

                            "Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?"

                            You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

                             

                            " -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

                            The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn"

                            What stack's statement shows is that he's got a better understanding of probability than you do. In a random selection each number has the same probability of being selected, but that's completely different than each number being selected the same number of times. Given a large enough number of selections random probability will tend to result in a uniform distribution, but that's not the same thing as an equal distribution. It should be obvious if you give it just a tiny bit of thought. If you roll a die three times and get 2, 3 and 5 then it's more likely that the first 12 rolls will have two 2's than two 6's and that the first 18 rolls will have three 2's than three 6's simply because you've already gotten the first 2 but not the first 6. You need fewer 2's than 6's to have the repeats you're looking for. As the sample size gets larger the distribution tends to get closer to being equal, but there's no magical force that demands that it be equal. If you look at past results of pick 3 or 4, lotto, and similar games you'll find that the frequency with which each number has been selected can always be plotted as a bell curve. Some numbers being selected a bit more often and some a bit less is what we expect from random probability.

                             

                            "I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times"

                            Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

                             

                            "I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it"

                            You're right. If you try often enough it will happen.  There's only  a problem with the thinking if you think that offers you a useful guarantee. Even if you could be positive that playing 123 for pick 3 guaranteed that you'd win once every 1000 days you'd still lose half of your money, but you can't even be sure it will happen once in 1000 tries. The actual chances of a particular P3 number being drawn in 1000 tries is a bit less than 2 in 3. That's balanced by a 1 in 3 chance that it would be drawn twice, but even then you'd only break even.

                            That last is an excellent example of how an exactly equal chance of being selected results in the possible numbers being selected a different number of times.

                            If you look at past results of pick 3 or 4, lotto, and similar games you'll find that the frequency with which each number has been selected can always be plotted as a bell curve. Some numbers being selected a bit more often and some a bit less is what we expect from random probability.

                            True. Fair distribution in probability was never promised. When I look at my lotteries past winning pick 4 results I can count to nine using previous draws going back less then 10 days usually. Even with this being a fact pairs do repeat and digits repeat in different positions and thats within a small template of numbers. A template of your past year of lottery combinations showing how many times each number was drawn should be enough proof of the actual average distribution of pick 3 or 4 numbers. In the short run it shouldn't be expected to be a very even distribution. A template of your last week of results can show a trend.

                             

                            You're right. If you try often enough it will happen.  There's only  a problem with the thinking if you think that offers you a useful guarantee. Even if you could be positive that playing 123 for pick 3 guaranteed that you'd win once every 1000 days you'd still lose half of your money, but you can't even be sure it will happen once in 1000 tries. The actual chances of a particular P3 number being drawn in 1000 tries is a bit less than 2 in 3. That's balanced by a 1 in 3 chance that it would be drawn twice, but even then you'd only break even.

                             

                            Assuming you would win in 1,000 draws would be absolutely pointless. Going into something like this you would want to guarantee yourself you'll win in the profit on the combination you choose whether straight or box. A better duration to choose is to guarantee the player the combination will draw before a player spends the lowest payout for said combination. So a time-frame either within a month to a few months maximum should suffice a bet like this. It should reasonably be under 200 draws in pick 4 a little less for pick 3 based on the payout and depending on the wager. I'd personally think a player is possibly capable of calculating or choosing a combination or 2 that will show once in the coming months at the least. Or out of a set of #'s played everyday. If not what would are the strategies and methods be for? The game at it's core.. this could be one of the only winning guarantees a player can make.. because it certainly seems that is harder for a lot of players to predict what's exactly for the next draw. I've always noticed myself sometimes picking numbers too early sometimes a a day or two or three. Im sure i'm not the only one. I'd rather a bet like this in pick 4 where there's certainly more leeway to make your money back. How would you go about it instead? What do you think is the smartest way to win in the long run? In short the only guarantee in picking a combination maybe that it will draw in future results...

                            Can a player presently choose future winning draw results for the semi- long run?

                            Anybody ever compared the amount of repeats or non-repeats in pick 4 vs  pick 3? Same number matrix 1-9 but the two games tell a very different story. 

                            Creativity..

                            " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                            Million dollar operation 

                            Wink

                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                              January 30, 2010
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                              Posted: September 22, 2016, 6:06 pm - IP Logged

                              "The result will the same as the day before for at least 2 days in a row."

                              No it won't. All you're doing is showing an example of one particular series of results that happened in the past. We already know that the same result will  sometimes repeat, and probability tells us how often it will happen. What we don't know is when it will happen. With only two choices (H/T, odd/even) yesterday's result can be expected to repeat the next day half of the time, and to repeat for the next two days 25% of the time, but you can never say with certainty that it will happen the next day or next two days.

                              "That to me is predicting future results."

                              That you are sometimes right as a result of simple probability isn't prediction.

                               

                              "And don't send me your starter replacement bill."

                              Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

                              "WOW!...some people are just plain dumb !!!!!!"

                              Well, at least you get something right once in a while.

                               

                              "To remotely assert that the lotteries would conduct a completely 'blind' operation without an idea of how much they'd win or lose is absurd"

                              Of course it is, and I haven't done that. All I've said is that they rely on simple probability to know how much they'll profit. When they sell pick 3 tickets for $1 each and pay $500 for winning they know that in the long term they're going to sell $1000 worth of tickets for every $500 they pay out for a winning ticket. The same is true for pick 4, MM and PB, and the various other state lotto games. The selection of winning numbers is the completely random result of probability, but there's nothing blind about the number of winners and losers that will result.

                              Of course the article you linked to has nothing to do with that. Scratchers differ from the online games in that they rely on randomness in distributing the tickets,  but the tickets themselves aren't generated randomly. Instead the lottery determines a payout structure and then deliberately issues tickets that have the necessary number of winners (in all necessary amounts) and losers; they even provide you with that information if you're smart enough to look for it. The statistician who "cracked" the lottery simply figured out that for one particular game he could usually determine if a particular ticket was a winner if he already knew some of that ticket's attributes.

                               

                              "Have you done any back-testing"

                              It's not a type of cognitive bias, but belief in back testing is somewhat similar. It's a form of circular reasoning, and relies on past results to predict past results. If it doesn't confirm what you hope it will you've made some kind of an error.

                               

                              "Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?"

                              You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly. Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly. They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

                               

                              " -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

                              The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn"

                              What stack's statement shows is that he's got a better understanding of probability than you do. In a random selection each number has the same probability of being selected, but that's completely different than each number being selected the same number of times. Given a large enough number of selections random probability will tend to result in a uniform distribution, but that's not the same thing as an equal distribution. It should be obvious if you give it just a tiny bit of thought. If you roll a die three times and get 2, 3 and 5 then it's more likely that the first 12 rolls will have two 2's than two 6's and that the first 18 rolls will have three 2's than three 6's simply because you've already gotten the first 2 but not the first 6. You need fewer 2's than 6's to have the repeats you're looking for. As the sample size gets larger the distribution tends to get closer to being equal, but there's no magical force that demands that it be equal. If you look at past results of pick 3 or 4, lotto, and similar games you'll find that the frequency with which each number has been selected can always be plotted as a bell curve. Some numbers being selected a bit more often and some a bit less is what we expect from random probability.

                               

                              "I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times"

                              Well, you may have claimed that there's an effect 1,000 times. What you've never done is offered a sensible explanation about what actually causes that effect. I'll offer you (another) chance to start to explain it by answering a simple question: how many times can I test a coin by flipping it before the chances of heads or tails is no longer 50/50?

                               

                              "I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it"

                              You're right. If you try often enough it will happen.  There's only  a problem with the thinking if you think that offers you a useful guarantee. Even if you could be positive that playing 123 for pick 3 guaranteed that you'd win once every 1000 days you'd still lose half of your money, but you can't even be sure it will happen once in 1000 tries. The actual chances of a particular P3 number being drawn in 1000 tries is a bit less than 2 in 3. That's balanced by a 1 in 3 chance that it would be drawn twice, but even then you'd only break even.

                              That last is an excellent example of how an exactly equal chance of being selected results in the possible numbers being selected a different number of times.

                              LOL Okay, I get it...you and Stack are pretty tight which is fine. Let's take a couple of your assessments and, again, see where both of you still heavily contradict yourselves enroute to defeating your overall purpose.

                              Doing a bunch of pre-tests  may result in wear and tear that results in more frequent replacement of equipment, but that's completely unrelated to which  particular balls are selected. Thanks for another example of how stupid you are, and for once again proving that you're incapable of offering a sensible explanation of why things would work the way you think they do.

                              You're quite adept at being unable to think clearly.Lotteries don't conduct tests to see if things are working correctly.They conduct them to see if there's any indication of a possible problem. That means the proper analogy is to ask, "If you think there might be a problem with your starter would you conclude that there's nothing wrong with it after your mechanic  turns the key once and the car starts?"

                               

                              I almost know your answer to thisFrown but, I'm bold enough to ask you anyway. KY FLOYD, would you self-induce additional and unwarranted wear and tear on your vehicle which expedites the failure and replacement of parts/equipmentWhat?? See, YOU as a taxpayer PAY for the 'more frequent replacement of lottery equipment' which is resultant of those bunches pre-tests, okay.Yes NodSmash If you answered 'yes' to the first question, then you should be starting and turning off your engine multiple times each and every time you're ready to drive itBS. When either the starter, the starter solenoid, or a part of the ignition switch breaks, be sure to tell your mechanic how many 'pre-starts' you conduct before actually taking off. Then, ask him if he feels it's a good idea to conduct such pre-starts, and, if he feels this method expedited the failure of the corresponding part(s). In fact, next time someone is going to ride with you, be sure to do it in front of them, okay. When they ask why you're doing it, you're obligated to tell them, "These are pre-starts to make sure my starter works."Green laugh I hope you'll be courteous and honest enough to tell us what their honest reaction was. No Nod 

                              In the second one, I'm downright confused because one sentence completely washes the otherThud . If lotteries conduct tests to see if there's an 'indication of a problem', then isn't that the same as seeing if things are working correctlyLOLYes Nod That's some terrible verbiage just like the verbiage they use to validate pre-testing.No No Tell us all why they pre-test digital (RNG) methods then, KY FLOYD. KY FLOYD, do you turn your computer on then off multiple times just to make sure it's gonna boot up, and, see if there's a 'possible indication of a problem'...but the last time you used it, it was perfectly fine>>>Dupe Alert Actually, you probably do, KY FLOYD.   See,you're paying for those same machines which they're tearing up with conducting bunches of bogus pre-tests on but, you don't even feel that you have a right to know what those pre-test results are. But, you'll pay for them to tear 'em up conducting those same tests. No NodFrown . That's what you told us in the third post down right here:

                              https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/181012

                              *Before responding to this post, be sure to restart your computer a few times, okay. Then, after you've made another silly response and posted it, conduct a 'post-reply restart' to make sure it actually posted, and, to make sure that your computer is still working properly. Hey, I also noticed that you completely ignored my analogy of bobby623 losing out on a new truck due to those pre-tests. What's a matter? Afraid it wasn't gonna start up for ya? He!!, it's a brand new truck!Green laughLOLCrazyWhite BounceBashBoxing 

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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