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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 12 days ago by Soledad.

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amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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March 12, 2015
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Posted: September 17, 2016, 7:57 pm - IP Logged

KY Floyd's post is spot on. Before replying back, consider this: "Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics.", and visit the Wikipedia entry below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

Very interesting list. Most everyone, including myself, is influenced by one or more of those biases. The human mind, for how wonderful it is, has many weaknesses. Seeking to finding patterns in random events with the hope of predicting the next outcome is among them. Along with believing past draws directly effect future ones.

Maybe there are flaws with various lottery draw machines and/or related draw procedures.  Players have found flaws before.  However, barring some glitch, the assertion that pre-tests directly effect future draws is folly. Have you done any back-testing to see whether pre-tests really made any meaningful difference? Seeing hard data would be helpful.

Would you bet at Roulette If the dealer spun the wheel up to 7 times before the official spin on the 8th, even If your number or color showed up during one of those 7 test spins?

Would you play the Slots If the first 7 results were not counted, even if one of those results had the JP, or any win for that matter?

Would you try to qualify to be on the TV game show Wheel of Fortune If Pat Sajak spun the wheel 7 times before the 8th official spin, even If one of the tests landed on a $10,000 win?

 

Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?

If you answer yes to any of those, then I have nothing else to say to you except to seek professional help immediately.

Have a nice day !

    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
    Texas
    United States
    Member #86154
    January 30, 2010
    1648 Posts
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    Posted: September 17, 2016, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

    KY Floyd's post is spot on. Before replying back, consider this: "Cognitive biases are tendencies to think in certain ways that can lead to systematic deviations from a standard of rationality or good judgment, and are often studied in psychology and behavioral economics.", and visit the Wikipedia entry below:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

    Very interesting list. Most everyone, including myself, is influenced by one or more of those biases. The human mind, for how wonderful it is, has many weaknesses. Seeking to finding patterns in random events with the hope of predicting the next outcome is among them. Along with believing past draws directly effect future ones.

    Maybe there are flaws with various lottery draw machines and/or related draw procedures.  Players have found flaws before.  However, barring some glitch, the assertion that pre-tests directly effect future draws is folly. Have you done any back-testing to see whether pre-tests really made any meaningful difference? Seeing hard data would be helpful.

    LOL Must be some real good potpourri out there! We've went from discussing a very basic 0-9 game, which is won by drawing three numbers, to a psychological analysis of the game. What? So, in other words, thousands of good players are in error for utilizing the very tool that lottery commissions use to win on the same game!Green laughWhat an insult to outright discount the capabilities of the human mind, and, especially one that is really good with assessing numbers. He!!, people called Einstein crazy back in his day for the things he proposed and look at how he's viewed right today. Let's just cut to the chase here, okay. Select people here are simply entangling themselves more and more based on previous commentary on this same subject. They feel that because 'they' cannot readily figure out how to reasonably predict, play, and win that neither is noone else able to. But, they have also confirmed otherwise that there are ways to utilize PAST RESULTS, WHETHER TESTS OR OFFICIAL, to base future wagers on. In the link provided, please read both Stack47's and bobby623's commentary on pre-test and official draw results back in 2013.

    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263104

    Regarding Stack47's post, how is it possible to use past pre-test results to predict future pre-test results if past draws have absolutely no bearing on future or official results?What? Same thing applies to bobby623's assessment with his 'honest opinion' that only the 'winning combinations' from 'prior drawings' have any value. Well, guess what? Prior winning drawings INSTANTLY become PAST winning draws the second that last ball is drawn and the announcer calls it out officially. At that point, it becomes just another past draw just like those useless pre-draws with the word 'official' attached to it.Yes Nod The only, and I repeat ONLY difference is the verbiage used to describe the corresponding results which throws off un-savvy players like a couple of those here. There's one other commentary in that link which is also a bit disturbing to me. They say that they're not concerned with the pre-draws because they don't pay any money when the numbers on their ticket matches the pre-draw numbers. 

    In my opinion, this is a case where you will definitely miss what you actually had because you actually won in the pre-draws...and there's a 99% chance you'll lose in the official results.Yes Nod Okay, time for another stiff drink and some...Lurking

    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

    #lotto-4-a-living

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      New York, NY
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      Posted: September 17, 2016, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

      Probability Theory is concerned with how the events in a sequence are produced, not in how they appear after the fact. 

      Pre-test draws are part of how the sequence is produced, so they should be included in the conversation. But they're not the whole conversation. Math and Statistics are in large another part. The law of large numbers is also closely related to the regression to the mean. Mean as in statistics. And also, the question of whether or not random events are self-correcting.This is not just a simple yes or no question. There will be times when you're right, and also times when you're wrong, as in making up a pattern that you see that is not there. These are all well discussed and documented subjects. And how has Thomas Bayes name not come up either?

        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        Ny
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        Posted: September 17, 2016, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

        Would you bet at Roulette If the dealer spun the wheel up to 7 times before the official spin on the 8th, even If your number or color showed up during one of those 7 test spins?

        Would you play the Slots If the first 7 results were not counted, even if one of those results had the JP, or any win for that matter?

        Would you try to qualify to be on the TV game show Wheel of Fortune If Pat Sajak spun the wheel 7 times before the 8th official spin, even If one of the tests landed on a $10,000 win?

         

        Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?

        If you answer yes to any of those, then I have nothing else to say to you except to seek professional help immediately.

        Have a nice day !

        Would you bet at Roulette If the dealer spun the wheel up to 7 times before the official spin on the 8th, even If your number or color showed up during one of those 7 test spins?

        No.

        Would you play the Slots If the first 7 results were not counted, even if one of those results had the JP, or any win for that matter?

        No. 

        Would you try to qualify to be on the TV game show Wheel of Fortune If Pat Sajak spun the wheel 7 times before the 8th official spin, even If one of the tests landed on a $10,000 win?

        No.

        Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?

        No. 

         

        Does every state conduct pre-test draws? I think a few states don't do this. Correct me if im wrong. As for me personally I wouldn't incorporate the occurence of pre- test draws into my strategy in whatever state if they did conduct and put it as public knowledge. The only result or combination I look forward to in my methods are the winning results/combos. Winning results go with winning results. I would think pre- test results don't go with winning results No NoLOL 

        Creativity..

        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

        Million dollar operation 

        Wink

          MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
          Ny
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          Posted: September 17, 2016, 8:56 pm - IP Logged

          Probability Theory is concerned with how the events in a sequence are produced, not in how they appear after the fact. 

          Pre-test draws are part of how the sequence is produced, so they should be included in the conversation. But they're not the whole conversation. Math and Statistics are in large another part. The law of large numbers is also closely related to the regression to the mean. Mean as in statistics. And also, the question of whether or not random events are self-correcting.This is not just a simple yes or no question. There will be times when you're right, and also times when you're wrong, as in making up a pattern that you see that is not there. These are all well discussed and documented subjects. And how has Thomas Bayes name not come up either?

          All good conversation certain aspects need to be mentioned some don't. Quick question. Do they do these pre-test draws in NY also? and can I find documentation on this matter on their website. I thought I had taken mostly all of the Win 4 illustration in on the site. Thanks.

          Creativity..

          " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

          Million dollar operation 

          Wink

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            New York, NY
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            Posted: September 17, 2016, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

            I actually don't know anything about pre-test draws. I would assume that they do though. I have never seen them or have any basis to consider them for my selections. I just know statistics. I will always believe that that is a very reliable way think about the numbers. Sorry. Thanks for the topic, it has helped me to think about how and which numbers I choose. I appreciate it.

              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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              Posted: September 17, 2016, 9:45 pm - IP Logged

              Would you bet at Roulette If the dealer spun the wheel up to 7 times before the official spin on the 8th, even If your number or color showed up during one of those 7 test spins?

              No.

              Would you play the Slots If the first 7 results were not counted, even if one of those results had the JP, or any win for that matter?

              No. 

              Would you try to qualify to be on the TV game show Wheel of Fortune If Pat Sajak spun the wheel 7 times before the 8th official spin, even If one of the tests landed on a $10,000 win?

              No.

              Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?

              No. 

               

              Does every state conduct pre-test draws? I think a few states don't do this. Correct me if im wrong. As for me personally I wouldn't incorporate the occurence of pre- test draws into my strategy in whatever state if they did conduct and put it as public knowledge. The only result or combination I look forward to in my methods are the winning results/combos. Winning results go with winning results. I would think pre- test results don't go with winning results No NoLOL 

              Not sure, just about every state does tests whether ball or computer, not sure on the numbers, but testing is prevalent in most states. 

               

              To address your pre test history included in strategy, it's not so much having access to that information, the fact that they're doing those tests in the first place raises red flags. I can't use that info because I can't capitalize on it, it's pre test crap that doesn't count...lol

              I've lived too long to see BS artists walk by without me knowing. I see them coming a mile a way. There is absolutely no justification for this type of protocol that the rule makers made. 

               

              Your last line was on the point. Pre test numbers can't co-exist with official drawing results, but some her, or more which I suspect, don't get it. 

              Lucky loser's last reply was his best reply. If what he wrote didn't put it all into perspective, nothing else will.

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                Wyomissing, PA
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                Posted: September 17, 2016, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

                Would you bet at Roulette If the dealer spun the wheel up to 7 times before the official spin on the 8th, even If your number or color showed up during one of those 7 test spins?

                Would you play the Slots If the first 7 results were not counted, even if one of those results had the JP, or any win for that matter?

                Would you try to qualify to be on the TV game show Wheel of Fortune If Pat Sajak spun the wheel 7 times before the 8th official spin, even If one of the tests landed on a $10,000 win?

                 

                Do you start/shut off your car 7 times before you drive to make sure the starter works?

                If you answer yes to any of those, then I have nothing else to say to you except to seek professional help immediately.

                Have a nice day !

                Yes, yes, yes, and no. Car starter works or doesn't. I like playing the lottery, but also have some inkling of statistics.

                Over the course of many years of play, I've won roughly equally with self-selected numbers and quick-picks. How I've chosen numbers, over the long-haul, hasn't made any meaningful difference. It's fun to look at past draws, try different things, etc, but ultimately the odds are the same, regardless.

                The final outcome after the "7 test spins" can cut both ways equally. Sometimes it hurts the player, but other times will help. It doesn't matter what the previous spins were. Same number coming up multiple times within several spins is a frequent occurrence in roulette. Slot jackpot coming up again within a short time. Seen that on occasion too. Not overly common, but happens. Lottery is no different. For example, a year or so ago, in the PA Treasure Hunt, the exact same 5 number combination (1 in ~142,000) was chosen twice within about a week.

                You're very insistent that pre-tests matter, but you haven't posted any data to support that? Do some back-testing with and without pre-tests. Use numbers from Texas or some other state that publishes pre-test and/or post-test data. Most likely you'll find the results, given a decent size sample, will be the same either way.

                  amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                  Posted: September 17, 2016, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

                  Yes, yes, yes, and no. Car starter works or doesn't. I like playing the lottery, but also have some inkling of statistics.

                  Over the course of many years of play, I've won roughly equally with self-selected numbers and quick-picks. How I've chosen numbers, over the long-haul, hasn't made any meaningful difference. It's fun to look at past draws, try different things, etc, but ultimately the odds are the same, regardless.

                  The final outcome after the "7 test spins" can cut both ways equally. Sometimes it hurts the player, but other times will help. It doesn't matter what the previous spins were. Same number coming up multiple times within several spins is a frequent occurrence in roulette. Slot jackpot coming up again within a short time. Seen that on occasion too. Not overly common, but happens. Lottery is no different. For example, a year or so ago, in the PA Treasure Hunt, the exact same 5 number combination (1 in ~142,000) was chosen twice within about a week.

                  You're very insistent that pre-tests matter, but you haven't posted any data to support that? Do some back-testing with and without pre-tests. Use numbers from Texas or some other state that publishes pre-test and/or post-test data. Most likely you'll find the results, given a decent size sample, will be the same either way.

                  Then seek help right away.

                  As far as "over the course of many years" statement you wrote in your second paragraph, you're obviously not a serious player, so anything you write is moot.

                  Yes, the final outcome of the 8th result can come in my favor, but THE WHOLE GOAL in perfecting the prediction process is by methods, not luck. You don't learn by luck alone. Trial and error is the key.

                  I am very persistent about pre testing, even without actual data. You'd be correct on the data requests, but in this case, none needs to be presented because it was evident early on. The catch is that you have to be gifted in seeing the BS when it rears it's ugly head. You may be young and not see what I see. Maybe one day you'll see it.

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                    Wyomissing, PA
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                    Posted: September 17, 2016, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

                    No need for anyone else to post their viewpoints, since it seems you have it all figured out. Presumably, you're already a lottery millionaire Roll Eyes

                      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                      Posted: September 17, 2016, 10:42 pm - IP Logged

                      No need for anyone else to post their viewpoints, since it seems you have it all figured out. Presumably, you're already a lottery millionaire Roll Eyes

                      I don't know of anyone personally that has it all figured out. I'm positively sure they exist If they befriended me, but they ain't telling us..Green laugh

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: September 18, 2016, 2:04 am - IP Logged

                        LOL Must be some real good potpourri out there! We've went from discussing a very basic 0-9 game, which is won by drawing three numbers, to a psychological analysis of the game. What? So, in other words, thousands of good players are in error for utilizing the very tool that lottery commissions use to win on the same game!Green laughWhat an insult to outright discount the capabilities of the human mind, and, especially one that is really good with assessing numbers. He!!, people called Einstein crazy back in his day for the things he proposed and look at how he's viewed right today. Let's just cut to the chase here, okay. Select people here are simply entangling themselves more and more based on previous commentary on this same subject. They feel that because 'they' cannot readily figure out how to reasonably predict, play, and win that neither is noone else able to. But, they have also confirmed otherwise that there are ways to utilize PAST RESULTS, WHETHER TESTS OR OFFICIAL, to base future wagers on. In the link provided, please read both Stack47's and bobby623's commentary on pre-test and official draw results back in 2013.

                        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/263104

                        Regarding Stack47's post, how is it possible to use past pre-test results to predict future pre-test results if past draws have absolutely no bearing on future or official results?What? Same thing applies to bobby623's assessment with his 'honest opinion' that only the 'winning combinations' from 'prior drawings' have any value. Well, guess what? Prior winning drawings INSTANTLY become PAST winning draws the second that last ball is drawn and the announcer calls it out officially. At that point, it becomes just another past draw just like those useless pre-draws with the word 'official' attached to it.Yes Nod The only, and I repeat ONLY difference is the verbiage used to describe the corresponding results which throws off un-savvy players like a couple of those here. There's one other commentary in that link which is also a bit disturbing to me. They say that they're not concerned with the pre-draws because they don't pay any money when the numbers on their ticket matches the pre-draw numbers. 

                        In my opinion, this is a case where you will definitely miss what you actually had because you actually won in the pre-draws...and there's a 99% chance you'll lose in the official results.Yes Nod Okay, time for another stiff drink and some...Lurking

                        "Regarding Stack47's post, how is it possible to use past pre-test results to predict future pre-test results if past draws have absolutely no bearing on future or official results?"

                        That topic was about PB tests and the results of the test weren't known until after the official drawing so I suggested "They could use the pre-drawing test information to predict the results of the next pre-drawing test."

                        "In my opinion, this is a case where you will definitely miss what you actually had because you actually won in the pre-draws...and there's a 99% chance you'll lose in the official results Okay, time for another stiff drink and some"

                        There sure is lots of other misinformation with definitions of "random" and "probability". Each state decides their own definition of random whether it's ball drawn or by computer. Do you even know why they test their machines and ball sets before the official drawings?

                        "They say that they're not concerned with the pre-draws because they don't pay any money when the numbers on their ticket matches the pre-draw numbers."

                        Basically you and others are saying the tests have an effect on probability, but can't explain what the effect is. It's really simple, either each of the 1000 possible pick-3 outcomes has an equal chance of being drawn or the don't. When are you going to show us and prove a real effect?

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                          Texas
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                          Posted: September 18, 2016, 2:53 am - IP Logged

                          -You're very insistent that pre-tests matter, but you haven't posted any data to support that? Do some back-testing with and without pre-tests. Use numbers from Texas or some other state that publishes pre-test and/or post-test data. Most likely you'll find the results, given a decent size sample, will be the same either way.-

                          Well, I'd suggest that you ask Stack47 to do this since he's the one who said that past pre-test results can predict future pre-test results...then saying that past results of any kind have nothing to do with future draws, okay.BSAlso, bobby623 piggy-backed with how only the 'current winning combinations' have any useful value towards future draws.No Nod As I've already made it perfectly crystal clear, every single current official result is ACTUALLY part of past draw history right now as I type this commentary.Yes Nod So, I'll need someone to explain to me, in detail, just how in hell that works.See Ya! At this time, I'll introduce more links containing conducive commentary to further enhance this conversation.

                           https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/260077

                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/283854

                          Okay, in the first link, please focus your attention on the posts by *dr65, *grwurston, and *onlymoney whom are all very reputable and respected posters here at LP. Next is one of the three most telling contradictions we'll discuss here by Stack47 contained in the second link within his first and only post/reply which is this:

                           -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

                          The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn and, thus, applies the +/- probability factor towards the next draw. It's the pre & post-tests conducted that ultimately disrupts the natural flow of the so-called official draw.

                          -Basically you and others are saying the tests have an effect on probability, but can't explain what the effect is. It's really simple, either each of the 1000 possible pick-3 outcomes has an equal chance of being drawn or the don't. When are you going to show us and prove a real effect?-

                          No, Stack, the ball is actually in YOUR court to explain the following comment made by you where you've already said otherwise:

                          -They could use the pre-drawing test information to predict the results of the next pre-drawing test.-

                          Most of us already know what's going here so, it's the rest of you that need to substantively drive your point(s) home. In a nutshell, what you and your heroes are doing is completely ignoring and downplaying this common sense term called 'CAUSE AND EFFECT.'Blue Thinking

                          Be back in the .A.M...time to Bed.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: September 18, 2016, 3:05 am - IP Logged

                            I'm the one that's delusional? So are you telling me that doing up to 7 pre tests does NOT affect the official draw? 

                            Go back to your KY Jelly factory. You're either the dumbest moron on Earth, or someone who's really bad at trolling.

                            This isn't rocket science genius, but some people like you can't even process simple explanations. 

                            Next time you decide to drive your car, start and stop the engine 10 times to make sure the starter works. Then when you're done driving, perform the 10 steps again to make sure the starter is still working. And don't send me your starter replacement bill.

                            WOW!...some people are just plain dumb !!!!!!     Thud

                            "So are you telling me that doing up to 7 pre tests does NOT affect the official draw?"

                            But every time someone asks you to show them an actual effect, you tell the same old lie and then insult whoever asks for your proof; "Like I've written numerous times, it's futile. I can only explain it one way as the best possible explanation.."

                            You have no explanation so stop whining, nobody is forcing you play lottery games.

                            "Any attempt after that skews the results"

                            If you're saying it's impossible for one, two, or all three digits to repeat in any position or for one, two, or even all three to repeat in the same digit position, you don't understand mathematical probability or never analyzed a state lottery drawing history.

                            "This isn't rocket science genius,"

                            How about you just take your "winning systems" and move to a state with computer drawings where testing ball sets and machines is unnecessary. But then you can't blame the test drawings when your systems fail. 

                            "Next time you decide to drive your car, start and stop the engine 10 times to make sure the starter works."

                            Speaking of "some people are just plain dumb", it probably never occurred to you that state lotteries have their reasons for testing their equipment. How many times must you be told THEY ARE NOT FORCING YOU TO PLAY?

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: September 18, 2016, 3:27 am - IP Logged

                              -You're very insistent that pre-tests matter, but you haven't posted any data to support that? Do some back-testing with and without pre-tests. Use numbers from Texas or some other state that publishes pre-test and/or post-test data. Most likely you'll find the results, given a decent size sample, will be the same either way.-

                              Well, I'd suggest that you ask Stack47 to do this since he's the one who said that past pre-test results can predict future pre-test results...then saying that past results of any kind have nothing to do with future draws, okay.BSAlso, bobby623 piggy-backed with how only the 'current winning combinations' have any useful value towards future draws.No Nod As I've already made it perfectly crystal clear, every single current official result is ACTUALLY part of past draw history right now as I type this commentary.Yes Nod So, I'll need someone to explain to me, in detail, just how in hell that works.See Ya! At this time, I'll introduce more links containing conducive commentary to further enhance this conversation.

                               https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/260077

                              https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/283854

                              Okay, in the first link, please focus your attention on the posts by *dr65, *grwurston, and *onlymoney whom are all very reputable and respected posters here at LP. Next is one of the three most telling contradictions we'll discuss here by Stack47 contained in the second link within his first and only post/reply which is this:

                               -Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

                              The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn and, thus, applies the +/- probability factor towards the next draw. It's the pre & post-tests conducted that ultimately disrupts the natural flow of the so-called official draw.

                              -Basically you and others are saying the tests have an effect on probability, but can't explain what the effect is. It's really simple, either each of the 1000 possible pick-3 outcomes has an equal chance of being drawn or the don't. When are you going to show us and prove a real effect?-

                              No, Stack, the ball is actually in YOUR court to explain the following comment made by you where you've already said otherwise:

                              -They could use the pre-drawing test information to predict the results of the next pre-drawing test.-

                              Most of us already know what's going here so, it's the rest of you that need to substantively drive your point(s) home. In a nutshell, what you and your heroes are doing is completely ignoring and downplaying this common sense term called 'CAUSE AND EFFECT.'Blue Thinking

                              Be back in the .A.M...time to Bed.

                              That topic was about PB tests and someone mentioned the results of the test weren't known until after the official drawing.

                              rcbbuckeye said "I don't know about MM and PB, but I'm pretty sure Texas posts all the pre draw results before the actual drawing takes place. Check about 9:45 - 10:00 tonight. Texas draws the state games at 10:12pm."

                              And Rjoh asked "How can you use the information if you have purchase you tickets 15 minutes before the drawings?"

                              And then I answered with "They could use the pre-drawing test information to predict the results of the next pre-drawing test."

                              Do I really need to explain to you that while the players can't use the the latest test results to predict the next official drawing, they could use them to predict the next test results?

                              Do pre-drawing tests effect future pre-drawing the same way they effect future official drawings?

                              Never mind I forgot, you never explained how those tests actually effect the official drawings.

                                 
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