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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 18 days ago by Soledad.

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Wyomissing, PA
United States
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November 15, 2014
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Posted: September 12, 2016, 12:39 pm - IP Logged

Only in a perfect world, but we have greedy officials with no scruples. As far as big games, no need on their part to screw up flow, odds against the players fix that problem, but on the smaller games, heck yeah, they go out of their way to skew outcomes.

In my view, the "big games" are the ones to really scrutinize. For larger play states (Pennsylvania, Florida, New York, etc), Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games are very reliable, stable profit generators with the house take being very near the statistical expected (ie. ~50% for PA). Likewise for states, such as, New Jersey and California, with  pari-mutuel payouts.

I suppose for some very low play lotteries, there could be a plausible threat of the lottery tampering with Pick-X draws in some way to cover past large payouts. However, to reiterate, for most lotteries, it's the "big games" to watch, since those often start in the red...

For example, from my understanding, both Powerball and Mega Million starting jackpots are not fully covered until the jackpot has rolled one or, even more, times. Likewise with various in-state lottery jackpot games. Thus it's in the best interest for lotteries for jackpot games to rollover; not having a big winner too soon.

As for those questioning whether a particular lottery is potentially fixing their Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games, look at their annual report, paying special attention to revenue verses payout for Pick-X games. In most instances, the payout should be nearly half of revenue. For example, Pick-3 sales with ~50% expected payout, had $300 million in sales, prizes paid out should be very close to $150 million. This actually came up in discussion on here awhile back with PA Lottery, and it was remarkable how close, despite high payout numbers (ie. triples) being drawn, the payout to players was within a fraction of a percent of what would be statistically expected.

If someone had a winning system for Pick-X games, lottery financial reports would near certain reflect such irregularities. It's very telling how Pick-X games have changed very little, if at all, in many states for decades. That's not to say some individuals don't come out ahead, but not enough to make a meaningful statistical difference. Lotteries don't mind paying out big occasionally - they expect to; helping to keep players engaged and coming back to wager more.

Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
    Ny
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    Posted: September 12, 2016, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

    It's templates of recent drawings like this notice the similarity in pairs or full repeat combos: 9/4- 9/12

    1438- 025679

    5034-0126789

    4458-0123679

    5207- 134689

    3188- 0245679

    9373- 0124568

    3328- 0145679

    4032- 156789

    6290- 134578

    9865- 012347

    8813- 0245679

    2566- 0134789

    4105- 236789 

    2197034568

    7099- 1234568

    5562-0134789

    3418- 025679 

     

    Very short period of time. Only leads me to believe to play similar numbers. Majority of people go for the long shot, overdue, or out combinations even combinations that haven't drawn in years... Im sure this is who the lottery is feeding off of.. whether the lottery is either rigged to do this (I don't see how with a ball machine atleast) or this is the nature of numbers. Which would say to us the lottery is a number game demonstrating true laws of attraction to itself.. and that would be nature.. the nature of the game..  Only seasoned experienced players would notice this trend and figure good strategic ways to go about it.. That's why I've come up with my strategy to point out the mix of repeat digits as well as remaining digits that are incorporated in the winning combos after every individual draw. 

    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/303358/4776654

    Creativity..

    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

    Million dollar operation 

    Wink

      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

      United States
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      March 12, 2015
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      Posted: September 12, 2016, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

      In my view, the "big games" are the ones to really scrutinize. For larger play states (Pennsylvania, Florida, New York, etc), Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games are very reliable, stable profit generators with the house take being very near the statistical expected (ie. ~50% for PA). Likewise for states, such as, New Jersey and California, with  pari-mutuel payouts.

      I suppose for some very low play lotteries, there could be a plausible threat of the lottery tampering with Pick-X draws in some way to cover past large payouts. However, to reiterate, for most lotteries, it's the "big games" to watch, since those often start in the red...

      For example, from my understanding, both Powerball and Mega Million starting jackpots are not fully covered until the jackpot has rolled one or, even more, times. Likewise with various in-state lottery jackpot games. Thus it's in the best interest for lotteries for jackpot games to rollover; not having a big winner too soon.

      As for those questioning whether a particular lottery is potentially fixing their Pick-3, 4, 5, etc games, look at their annual report, paying special attention to revenue verses payout for Pick-X games. In most instances, the payout should be nearly half of revenue. For example, Pick-3 sales with ~50% expected payout, had $300 million in sales, prizes paid out should be very close to $150 million. This actually came up in discussion on here awhile back with PA Lottery, and it was remarkable how close, despite high payout numbers (ie. triples) being drawn, the payout to players was within a fraction of a percent of what would be statistically expected.

      If someone had a winning system for Pick-X games, lottery financial reports would near certain reflect such irregularities. It's very telling how Pick-X games have changed very little, if at all, in many states for decades. That's not to say some individuals don't come out ahead, but not enough to make a meaningful statistical difference. Lotteries don't mind paying out big occasionally - they expect to; helping to keep players engaged and coming back to wager more.

      Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

      Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

       

      I disagree as far as the p-2, p-3, and p-4 games.

      There is no good reason whatsoever to perform anywhere up to 6 or 7 pre and post tests, 21 ball set tubes, and three machines in Florida.

      A: If they want to protect from tampering, lock the machines in a vault with a video surveillance camera that a night watchman monitors. This method would cost a whole lot less than employing a handful of people spending 15 hours a day playing with machines...lol

      B: The other lame excuse of making sure the machines work properly is bogus. What will they do If the machine breaks down after spending upwards of 7 hours performing all that pre and post test nonsense? Guess what? They re-do the draw right? So what did they gain, absolutely nothing.

      Like I've said a million times, true randomness is to put the balls back in the machine and leave it alone till the next drawing, SIMPLE!

        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        Ny
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        Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

        Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

         

        I disagree as far as the p-2, p-3, and p-4 games.

        There is no good reason whatsoever to perform anywhere up to 6 or 7 pre and post tests, 21 ball set tubes, and three machines in Florida.

        A: If they want to protect from tampering, lock the machines in a vault with a video surveillance camera that a night watchman monitors. This method would cost a whole lot less than employing a handful of people spending 15 hours a day playing with machines...lol

        B: The other lame excuse of making sure the machines work properly is bogus. What will they do If the machine breaks down after spending upwards of 7 hours performing all that pre and post test nonsense? Guess what? They re-do the draw right? So what did they gain, absolutely nothing.

        Like I've said a million times, true randomness is to put the balls back in the machine and leave it alone till the next drawing, SIMPLE!

        What other states do they do that many pre or post tests for? is that every state? I guess their idea is the FACT that pick 4 is indeed beatable if the number balls were in fact left alone.. so they try to create "randomness" which is really protecting their a**$ by limiting your intitial prediction to a mere shot in the dark.. If 6 or 7 post tests are done who's to say your predicition didn't actually show already in one of the 6 test draws.. the game is beatable like I always say.. pick 3 AND 4 are elementary school level number picking games.. without the stuff that you just enlightened me to as far as the pre and post tests surely indicates that this is the tampering being done.. now if this is what is stopping people from winning BIG as much as they should then that's where the semi- diffculty comes in.. Our best bet is to simplify the game.. even/odds - highs/lows.. keep track/log on your own because they are.. pick your losers.. make your BEST predictions based on whats 'probable'.. and hopefully it works

        Creativity..

        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

        Million dollar operation 

        Wink

          amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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          Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

          What other states do they do that many pre or post tests for? is that every state? I guess their idea is the FACT that pick 4 is indeed beatable if the number balls were in fact left alone.. so they try to create "randomness" which is really protecting their a**$ by limiting your intitial prediction to a mere shot in the dark.. If 6 or 7 post tests are done who's to say your predicition didn't actually show already in one of the 6 test draws.. the game is beatable like I always say.. pick 3 AND 4 are elementary school level number picking games.. without the stuff that you just enlightened me to as far as the pre and post tests surely indicates that this is the tampering being done.. now if this is what is stopping people from winning BIG as much as they should then that's where the semi- diffculty comes in.. Our best bet is to simplify the game.. even/odds - highs/lows.. keep track/log on your own because they are.. pick your losers.. make your BEST predictions based on whats 'probable'.. and hopefully it works

          As far as the title of your thread and the answers given in earlier posts are correct, concerning the same probabilities in each combination, but the subject got turned into randomness early on.

          I'm not sure If other states have as many tests as Florida has, but Florida seems to be the worst offender out of all of the states based on bits of info I've gained in recent years. But you are correct, I can only imagine how many times my winning number showed up in the pre test.

          A while back I posted a thread about how ridiculous Florida is. Click on he link below, and your jaw will drop. They're like Lottery Nazis..lol

          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304123

            grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
            Winning makes me smile.
            bel air maryland
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            Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:30 pm - IP Logged

            As far as the title of your thread and the answers given in earlier posts are correct, concerning the same probabilities in each combination, but the subject got turned into randomness early on.

            I'm not sure If other states have as many tests as Florida has, but Florida seems to be the worst offender out of all of the states based on bits of info I've gained in recent years. But you are correct, I can only imagine how many times my winning number showed up in the pre test.

            A while back I posted a thread about how ridiculous Florida is. Click on he link below, and your jaw will drop. They're like Lottery Nazis..lol

            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304123

            There was a thread within the last couple of months about something similar where some one posted a story about the time when Pa. had the Pick 3 drawing rigged. There was a link in the article describing the Pa. drawing procedure since then. Pa. does almost 15 tests for each drawing nowadays. This I believe, is what started all the pre-test and post draw testing that now occurs. Of course it's done to protect the integrity of the games and to keep everything completely random. Yeah, right.

            "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

            The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

            Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

              MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
              Ny
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              Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

              There was a thread within the last couple of months about something similar where some one posted a story about the time when Pa. had the Pick 3 drawing rigged. There was a link in the article describing the Pa. drawing procedure since then. Pa. does almost 15 tests for each drawing nowadays. This I believe, is what started all the pre-test and post draw testing that now occurs. Of course it's done to protect the integrity of the games and to keep everything completely random. Yeah, right.

              The only way to protect the integrity of the game is to keep players from winning big and swaying from the majorities gut feelings which in return lowers the payouts  calling it "random"...

              Creativity..

              " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

              Million dollar operation 

              Wink

                MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                Ny
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                Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                Here's a passage I took from California's website word for word. i find it intersting. I posted in another discussion as well. Do you think a computer makes the game play any different? Why do some states feel they need to control the draw by computer.. instead of a random ballot draw like NY and some other states? 

                In the Pick 4 & 3 subsection under FAQ's for What is a Automated Draw machine? Here's the passage:

                The Automated Draw Machine is a stand-alone computer, which means it isn't connected to any other computer system. The computer's hard drive cannot be opened without breaking a numbered security seal. Inside the computer, the programs that generate the random numbers are permanently implanted or "burned in" and cannot be altered. You could compare it to trying to alter the information on a compact disk. Tampering with the system in any way is impossible.

                The California Lottery has purchased three separate Automated Draw Machines, two are used for the daily draws and the third one is used as an off-site backup in the event of an emergency. Each day before the draw, a manual capsule draw is conducted to determine which draw device will be used - A or B. Another manual capsule draw is conducted to determine which randomization method is used, one being a mathematical algorithm and the other being a Random Number Generator. The numbers selected from either method are unpredictable and selected in an unbiased manner."

                 

                What do you guys think? Im sure some things said are protocol for most lotteries but an automated draw just seems a bit fishy and more manipulative then the good old fashion ballot draws. Which one is rigged?

                Creativity..

                " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                Million dollar operation 

                Wink

                  MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                  Ny
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                  Posted: September 12, 2016, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                  Here's NY's Drawings & Prizes section: enough said.. some states pick 3 and pick 4  have to be be played different as I suspected solely based on their drawing methods.. 

                  FAQ nylotterys website.. 

                  How do the Drawings Work?

                  We start with one drawing machine with four special chambers, each containing balls numbered 0 to 9. Twice daily we randomly draw 4 numbers, one from each chamber. So, unlike LOTTO, Take Five, Pick Ten and Quick Draw, repeat numbers may be drawn. All drawings are under the observation of an independent auditing firm.

                   

                  New York pick 4 vs California pick 4?

                  Creativity..

                  " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                  Million dollar operation 

                  Wink

                    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                    Ny
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                    Posted: September 12, 2016, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

                    As far as the title of your thread and the answers given in earlier posts are correct, concerning the same probabilities in each combination, but the subject got turned into randomness early on.

                    I'm not sure If other states have as many tests as Florida has, but Florida seems to be the worst offender out of all of the states based on bits of info I've gained in recent years. But you are correct, I can only imagine how many times my winning number showed up in the pre test.

                    A while back I posted a thread about how ridiculous Florida is. Click on he link below, and your jaw will drop. They're like Lottery Nazis..lol

                    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304123

                    Wow that is some crazy information to know. Knowledge is power and I guess they count on players to not be knowledgeable of these "rules" they have in place. Because the highlighted part alone says out loud "tampering alert we don't want you to win" without even giving probable reasoning. You are absolutely correct. I made two threads on lottery topics to find out how some people feel about their state lotteries with some research that started with California's lottery to find out alot of other states seem a bit corrupt with the so called randomness a lottery is defined to have. 

                    Creativity..

                    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                    Million dollar operation 

                    Wink

                      grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                      Winning makes me smile.
                      bel air maryland
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                      Posted: September 12, 2016, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

                      The only way to protect the integrity of the game is to keep players from winning big and swaying from the majorities gut feelings which in return lowers the payouts  calling it "random"...

                      Absolutely!!!  Why do the states stop selling a number when too many people play it? They don't want to pay out. It will hurt their bottom line too much.

                      So I ask you this,  If they know what numbers have been played the most before every drawing, how often do you think they will "let" that number hit?  Now that doesn't mean the long outs will hit every time either.  But if you only played, say the top 50 hitters in your state, you might do fairly well. After all they are the top 50 hitters for a reason.

                      "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                      The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                      Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                        Ny
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                        Posted: September 12, 2016, 6:46 pm - IP Logged

                        Absolutely!!!  Why do the states stop selling a number when too many people play it? They don't want to pay out. It will hurt their bottom line too much.

                        So I ask you this,  If they know what numbers have been played the most before every drawing, how often do you think they will "let" that number hit?  Now that doesn't mean the long outs will hit every time either.  But if you only played, say the top 50 hitters in your state, you might do fairly well. After all they are the top 50 hitters for a reason.

                        Right that goes to show a "sold out combo" is not within their budget to payout.. hmm.. the combo sells out in their database even by the possibility the players will get paid out let's say $2 million or less in a single draw.. when I look on my states website seems like the average they payout per draw is maybe a little under half a million sometimes more sometimes less this is ny tho... But never really seen a payout of $1.5million or better in pick 4 to my remembrance if so seldom.. so lets say the budget or sold out point must be somewhere between $1 and $2 million.. they may be rigging not the probability but the possibility! that's for sure

                        Creativity..

                        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                        Million dollar operation 

                        Wink

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                          Kentucky
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                          Posted: September 12, 2016, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                          Absolutely not, and this is directly due to all the pre & post-test draws conducted. It's not so much that a 'complete combination' be it boxed or straight has the same probability but, pairs of numbers are often repeated from one official draw to the next. However, after the official draw is conducted, you will find that none of the pairs from that draw are found in the very next 'clean draw' whether it's a post-test draw or the first pre-test draw prior to the next official draw. Just doesn't happen. I just recently discussed this with a LP acquaintance of mine and used Connecticut Pick 4 as an example because it was most recent at the time. Examples:

                          CT 9/10/16 Day - 5321

                          CT 9/10/16 Eve - 4327

                           

                          DC 9/08/16 EVE - 6870

                          DC 9/09/16 DAY - 6894

                           

                          FL 9/07/16 EVE - 1132

                          FL 9/08/16 MID - 613

                           

                          GA 9/04/16 MID - 5221

                          GA 9/04/16 EVE - 5828

                           

                          Many more examples like this on both Pick 3 and Pick 4 can be found, and, it happens fairly regularly. How can this affect a player? Well, depending on the filtering strategy, the average player would simply rule out the possibility of any same pairs showing up in the next draw in their same positions. Removing those pairs in straight or boxed form would've resulted in losses on all the above draws and that's how it affects both the player and their system. As I've often said in my strong opinion, they conduct all those bogus draws to purposely throw off any reasonable system based on the probability of re-occurrence. While it may not happen as often as it could, you just never know when it will and you're taking a chance by eliminating any paired combination. On the other hand, playing it back could net a good win...never know. Mind you, even with the repeating of pairs, the entire combination drawn is still part of all the possible combinations. However, because that same partial combination is drawn after at least (4) previous draws in pre-testing, it lowers the possibility of other combinations.

                          The most common thing to occur is a single digit repeating from one draw to the next, and, this happens a lot in the same position as well. I've seen a digit repeat up to (4) times in a row in the same position BUT, it's only after the pre-tests and shows up in the official draws. This is a direct result of all those dang tests and tampering with the machines/ball sets. Everything they do is by design to either increase or decrease something with the results, okay, and I support that strong opinion with the ABSENCE of such nonsense at casinos. For some reason, the casinos don't feel the need to tamper with probability. What ever happens on that SINGLE first spin, roll, or hand is what happens and if the player(s) outwit the probability, then so be it. Hope this helps.Big Smile

                          Do you have any proof or overwhelming evidence that pre-drawing test prevent pick-3 or pick-4 combinations from being drawn?

                            bobby623's avatar - abstract
                            San Angelo, Texas
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                            Posted: September 12, 2016, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                            IMHO, It's really unfortunate that so many apparently smart lottery gamblers really believe that lottery games are rigged in some way.
                            I've viewed several hundred Texas ball machine drawings (3 or 4 per day) and I've never spotted anything that made me believe that the outcomes are being manipulated in some way.

                            The machines are doing a good job of mixing the balls. I've no complaints.
                            There was a situation in PA where some crooks squirted paint into several balls, but I've never read anything to indicate that they actually robbed the lottery.
                            My understanding is that the lotteries know exactly how much a box of balls should weigh. Ball sets that become too light or heavy do to use are replaced.

                            My view is that the lottery has a limited number of options that could affect the drawing outcomes.
                            I. Change the speed in which the drum(s) rotate. 
                            2. Vary the air pressure.
                            3. Vary the intervals in which the exit gates open.
                            4. Vary the machines and ball sets.
                            5. Vary the paddle wheel speed.

                            I don't think anyone outside of the lottery knows what affect these changes have on the drawings.

                            I have very detailed tracking charts and I've never come across a situation where the data suggested significant changes have occurred.
                            The machine outputs are in motion, following a mixed up tune.
                            I'd worry if the game output stalled, but, it never has.

                            It's amazing how many folks are hung up on Random.
                            If you watch a few actual drawings, it's clear that the machines have no memory, no way to discriminate between the numbers assigned to the balls.
                            If it knows anything, its that there are a bunch of balls in the  mixing vessel and that a certain number will escape during a drawing cycle.
                            It has no way of knowing the numbers painted on the balls.
                            It's the humans that know the numbers, and argue about whether or not a dumb machine with no memory made random choices. 

                            Face it. It is what it is.
                            The chance that the lotteries are going to change things to satisfy folks who are not happy with their methods is slim and none.
                            Adapting is something humans do well. Why folks can't seem to adapt to how lotteries operate is a mystery.
                            Folks who can't seem to win maybe ought to try something different.
                            Workouts can produce wins, but not as often as we would like - and that's the way it is!!

                              Avatar
                              Wyomissing, PA
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                              Posted: September 12, 2016, 7:33 pm - IP Logged

                              Rambling on, but bottom line is such lottery games are darn close to random. Enough so that Pick-X games are essentially unbeatable. The law of big numbers makes it a near certainty that lotteries will continue to rake in big profits regardless of how individual players play; no need to fix such games.

                               

                              I disagree as far as the p-2, p-3, and p-4 games.

                              There is no good reason whatsoever to perform anywhere up to 6 or 7 pre and post tests, 21 ball set tubes, and three machines in Florida.

                              A: If they want to protect from tampering, lock the machines in a vault with a video surveillance camera that a night watchman monitors. This method would cost a whole lot less than employing a handful of people spending 15 hours a day playing with machines...lol

                              B: The other lame excuse of making sure the machines work properly is bogus. What will they do If the machine breaks down after spending upwards of 7 hours performing all that pre and post test nonsense? Guess what? They re-do the draw right? So what did they gain, absolutely nothing.

                              Like I've said a million times, true randomness is to put the balls back in the machine and leave it alone till the next drawing, SIMPLE!

                              Tampering isn't the only consideration. There's also the mechanical nature of ball draws. Balls can become damaged, machine out of spec, etc. Though the main focus of pre-testing and/or post-testing, regardless of the type of machine used, is to dissuade insiders from fixing drawings, such as occurred in Pennsylvania a few decades back with the infamous Daily Number 666 draw.

                              To reiterate what I posted previously, if one believes the lottery is fixing Pick-X draws through testing and whatnot, then one would see the effects of that in lottery financial reports. Extraordinary claims (ie. lottery fixing drawings) require extraordinary evidence. Posting a series of numbers alone doesn't illustrate much, if anything.

                                 
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