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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 13 days ago by Soledad.

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MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:29 am - IP Logged

What is more likely to happen in pick 3 is different from what is more likely to happen in pick 4.. very similar games, different probabilities, same matrix (0-9), different expectations for the numbers drawn after the last result.. just putting that out there

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation 

Wink

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:52 am - IP Logged

    Haha LOL I hear you amber. Basically the pre-tests are not so much to prevent tampering. They are in place to create RANDOMNESS is the LARGE PICTURE. In my illustration in my last post taken directly from the website if you look past most of the BS everyone should get the hint. They must generate randomness and it must be a heck of a lot harder to generate such randomness conducting 4 draws a day. Point blank.  Now who uses the pre-test draws to determine their picks and who doesn't?? If anybody..

    Are we playing against the lottery? Or is the lottery playing back against us in subtle ways?

    "Basically the pre-tests are not so much to prevent tampering. They are in place to create RANDOMNESS is the LARGE PICTURE"

    IMO, the Texas testing is probably excessive, but they define their randomness. In other words, it's their game, their ball, and their rules.

      MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
      Ny
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      Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:58 am - IP Logged

      "-Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

      The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn and, thus, applies the +/- probability factor towards the next draw. It's the pre & post-tests conducted that ultimately disrupts the natural flow of the so-called official draw."

      Even though you ignored "over time", you won't find in 50 drawings where all ten digits in each digit position were all drawn exactly five times. Maybe you missed the memo, but the three winning digits (on the ping pong balls) are placed back into the container and have the same 1 in 10 chance of being drawn in the next official drawing, As a "savvy player" please explain how test drawings either effect the 1 in 10 chance each digit has or why each digit doesn't have a 1 in 10 chance,

      Math books explain probability and you'll find "things that disrupts the natural flow" in fiction or fantasy books.

      Every digit has the same 1 in 10 chance every draw that is probability.. in pick 3 does anyone ever take their chances on the other 7 digits not drawn in the last official draw.. making the game a 3 of 7? Why or why not? their is one very specific trend... The game is about taking your best chances at 3 of 10 or 4 of 10.. how every player goes about this varies.. What are your best chances? the argument has become about whether pre-tests effect the official draw which has nothing to do with almost anything.. We all should know the same probability remains still in place.. but the combination does change every draw.. How do pre-tests effect the players selection of combinations for said draws is the real matter and a real topic of discussion.. you guys are going back and forth about not much my head is spinning.. LOL 

       

      Are pre-test draws equal to unofficial results?

       

      Do pre tests change or alter a players chances at winning by his selection for the official draw?

      I think yes. By the time the official draw is conducted a players wise selection based on past results or anything else has been altered in that he hasn't taken his best chances at winning for (5) draws later. That alone is why I can see players being against pre-test draws. There has to be players out there that combination hits during the pre test draw more than likely. That is just probability. The only way to not be against pre test draws is to be a completely random non-systematic player with no strategy or history reference. Then how does a player go about winning? Putting combination results/draws in the middle of official draws would seemingly "disrupt the flow".

      Creativity..

      " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

      Million dollar operation 

      Wink

        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        Ny
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        Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:03 am - IP Logged

        "Basically the pre-tests are not so much to prevent tampering. They are in place to create RANDOMNESS is the LARGE PICTURE"

        IMO, the Texas testing is probably excessive, but they define their randomness. In other words, it's their game, their ball, and their rules.

        It does seem excessive. The amount of draws they have daily is excessive also. The player is definitely playing by their set rules. To have a Texas player such as LL unhappy if im correct about the amount of pre-test draws shows they just may not be fair to what some players ideal of the game is.

        Creativity..

        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

        Million dollar operation 

        Wink

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          Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:03 am - IP Logged

          Your question about starting a car supposes the purpose of tests is to show the machines work. But it seems more likely the tests are to demonstrate that the balls  haven't been tampered with.

          The question is a logical fallacy assuming starting a car is the same as conducting drawings with millions bet on the outcomes.

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            Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:10 am - IP Logged

            It does seem excessive. The amount of draws they have daily is excessive also. The player is definitely playing by their set rules. To have a Texas player such as LL unhappy if im correct about the amount of pre-test draws shows they just may not be fair to what some players ideal of the game is.

            Before Ohio's live ball drawings someone would say "ten numbered balls are placed in three containers and mixed". As a player I had no reason to believe the three digit number I selected had no chance of winning, but I also knew it was highly unlikely (1 in 1000 chance) that I would win.

            The argument here seems to be if it wasn't for the test drawings, the chances of winning would magically become better than 1 in 1000.

              MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
              Ny
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              Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:26 am - IP Logged

              Before Ohio's live ball drawings someone would say "ten numbered balls are placed in three containers and mixed". As a player I had no reason to believe the three digit number I selected had no chance of winning, but I also knew it was highly unlikely (1 in 1000 chance) that I would win.

              The argument here seems to be if it wasn't for the test drawings, the chances of winning would magically become better than 1 in 1000.

              The argument here seems to be if it wasn't for the test drawings, the chances of winning would magically become better than 1 in 1000.

              And that my friend is a silly argument. The chances will always remain the same as long as it is a pick 3 or 4 out of 10 digit game and we all should know those odds.

              Creativity..

              " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

              Million dollar operation 

              Wink

                TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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                Posted: September 19, 2016, 8:28 am - IP Logged

                Do you believe every combination has the same probability? That is the question.

                The answer is YES. 

                For pick 3, the odds of a number coming out is 1,000 to 1 and for pick 4, it's 10,000 to 1.

                Every number has the same probability of being drawn as every other number. They can test the machines 100s of times, but all that matter is the official result.

                The Meatman

                “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                  amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                  Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

                  It's obviously impossible for you to discuss anything without childish insults and name calling.

                  I don't like repeating myself 20 times to a person like you who is incapable of comprehending fundamental concepts. I would draw pictures but I'm not a good painter.

                  And just like I thought, you still evade my question. 

                    amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                    Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

                    The question is a logical fallacy assuming starting a car is the same as conducting drawings with millions bet on the outcomes.

                    Okay, you dismiss the car starting, you, till this day haven't addressed the Casino comparison, where there are millions of dollars at stake. If they ever pulled that crap, the owners of the casinos would close down the same day.

                    People like you are too dense to get it. It's a waste of my time educating people who can't be educated. 

                      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                      Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

                      Every digit has the same 1 in 10 chance every draw that is probability.. in pick 3 does anyone ever take their chances on the other 7 digits not drawn in the last official draw.. making the game a 3 of 7? Why or why not? their is one very specific trend... The game is about taking your best chances at 3 of 10 or 4 of 10.. how every player goes about this varies.. What are your best chances? the argument has become about whether pre-tests effect the official draw which has nothing to do with almost anything.. We all should know the same probability remains still in place.. but the combination does change every draw.. How do pre-tests effect the players selection of combinations for said draws is the real matter and a real topic of discussion.. you guys are going back and forth about not much my head is spinning.. LOL 

                       

                      Are pre-test draws equal to unofficial results?

                       

                      Do pre tests change or alter a players chances at winning by his selection for the official draw?

                      I think yes. By the time the official draw is conducted a players wise selection based on past results or anything else has been altered in that he hasn't taken his best chances at winning for (5) draws later. That alone is why I can see players being against pre-test draws. There has to be players out there that combination hits during the pre test draw more than likely. That is just probability. The only way to not be against pre test draws is to be a completely random non-systematic player with no strategy or history reference. Then how does a player go about winning? Putting combination results/draws in the middle of official draws would seemingly "disrupt the flow".

                      Do pre tests change or alter a players chances at winning by his selection for the official draw?

                      I think yes. By the time the official draw is conducted a players wise selection based on past results or anything else has been altered in that he hasn't taken his best chances at winning for (5) draws later. That alone is why I can see players being against pre-test draws. There has to be players out there that combination hits during the pre test draw more than likely. That is just probability. The only way to not be against pre test draws is to be a completely random non-systematic player with no strategy or history reference. Then how does a player go about winning? Putting combination results/draws in the middle of official draws would seemingly "disrupt the flow".

                      Yes Nod Thank you. This is exactly what I've been driving at, man, and I notice that Stack47 had no argument for this portion of 'your' assessment which agrees with mine.  Here's the deal, every single player that's seriously into the game and 'savvy' like I said already knows that the official results are simply a formality. When the player checks the so-called current official results history to assemble their next group of numbers for play, those results have been completely thrown out the window with another four pre-tests PRIOR to the next official results. Think about that real good, okay. To base their 'wise' selections, as you've accurately described them, on the last official results actually does no good No Nod because the commission has 'LAUNDERED' the results...which you've identified here. In other words, the player is swayed to 'falsely' utilize what is deemed an official draw, BUT, it isn't the actual last draw conducted right before the next deemed official draw...which is what the player thinks their basing good picks on. It's the illusion compiled with the BS verbiage of what they're doing that burns me upCussing Face, and, the player needs to step up their research is what I'm saying. With that said, anyone contesting that pre-tests don't matter and don't disrupt things while also basing their picks on what 'supposedly' happened last, they should simply do QP's from now on.LOL I call what the commissions are doing as 'cycling through winning combinations and purging.' Now, I'm going to include another link which is pretty recent and started by amber123 whom I see as using her basic common sense when discussing this game. In this link, though, the same reputable and respected long-time posters I spoke of in a previous post are also present and saying the exact things that I've been saying for years. What I'm noticing is that Stack47 seems to have no issueNo Nod with them taking this position but, he drops the gavel on me, amber123, and one more posterFrownWhat?Unhappy...pretty sure some politics are involved here. It's all good, though. Here's the link and carefully read the commentaries on the first two pages for sure and notice what I mentioned above:

                       

                       https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304123

                      It's about to get real good, now. Lurking

                      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                      #lotto-4-a-living

                        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                        Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:09 pm - IP Logged

                        Before Ohio's live ball drawings someone would say "ten numbered balls are placed in three containers and mixed". As a player I had no reason to believe the three digit number I selected had no chance of winning, but I also knew it was highly unlikely (1 in 1000 chance) that I would win.

                        The argument here seems to be if it wasn't for the test drawings, the chances of winning would magically become better than 1 in 1000.

                        This is EXACTLY what I mean about being dense. How many times have I and others wrote about this but you seem to ignore the past writings as If we never had this conversation before.

                        Of course it doesn't magically become better odds than 1 in 1,000, but people who have systems that may improve their chance based on many factors, becomes useless. It doesn't guarantee a win, but It may improve it. I hardly play anymore because it's futile to study the numbers for hours on end, only to be screwed by a bunch of eyeglass wearing nerds who think they have to spend 10 hours a day to make a machine random. You must be one of them Stuck47.

                         

                        Take my word LP people, two months from now, someone will start a similar thread, and Stuck47 will ask me the same questions all over again. And like an idiot, I'll answer hem again.

                        I'll start my painting lessons so I'll be more prepared to answer him then.

                          amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                          Posted: September 19, 2016, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

                          The argument here seems to be if it wasn't for the test drawings, the chances of winning would magically become better than 1 in 1000.

                          And that my friend is a silly argument. The chances will always remain the same as long as it is a pick 3 or 4 out of 10 digit game and we all should know those odds.

                          Now do you see what I had to put up with this guy for months on end? It's like debating an 8 year old boy with a screwy brain.

                          Crazy

                            grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                            Winning makes me smile.
                            bel air maryland
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                            Posted: September 19, 2016, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

                            I'm re-posting this because it raises a very important question which is the #1 reason I think players don't like the pre-tests.

                            If the same number comes up 5 times in the same position during the pre-tests, why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

                            There are two answers to this question.

                            1) They think someone tampered with the balls or machines in some way like what happened in Pa. Which is what led to all the pre and post draw tests that they do now. Obviously the security wasn't that good back then, which led to the tampering. But nowadays the security is so stringent it's impossible for one person to get to the balls. Several people need to be present for the machine set up and drawings to be conducted, not to mention all the 24 hour video cameras that are present. So this is a BS reason.

                            2)  If the same number comes up 5 times in a row in the same position (or not) during the pre-tests, why isn't this considered to be the "randomness" of the game?  Something unusual happens during the pre test and now all of a sudden the officials say, "That's not random. We need to change the balls."  That implies one of two things.  Either one, they have a security issue which is unlikely. (See above).  Or two, the games are not meant to be completely random. The fact that they change the ball sets proves this. Other wise why would they do it?

                            They are always insisting that everything is completely random. However, they are pretty quick to change the balls or machines if they think something doesn't look right in the pre-tests.

                            Recently in Md. we had the following happen. Sixteen doubles in one month in the Pick 3. That is the average of 27%, however 14 of the doubles were on the evening and only 2 on the midday. July and August had 8, Pick 4 double-doubles. May-June had 8, Pick 4 triples. All of these could be considered very unusual by the players, but if we were to question the lottery officials, we would be told, "It's all completely random" because it happened in the official draws. So if something unusual happens in the pre-test draws, why are the officials so quick to say something is wrong and change the balls? Why is "random" in the pre-tests different from "random" in the official draws?

                            We've all seen numbers go on a hot streak and hit 6, 7, 8, 9 days in a row in the official draws, but the officials try to prevent hot streaks in the pre-tests (by changing ball sets) because they don't want them to continue into the official draws, where the players may pick up on it. That is how pre-tests can effect the official draws. 

                            I don't know if this is a good analogy or not but, it would be like if your local bowling alley had a promotion where they would pay someone $5,000 for rolling a perfect game, and you have 9 strikes in a row and then they want you to change lanes for the 10th frame.

                            "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                            The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                            Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                              Posted: September 20, 2016, 1:12 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm re-posting this because it raises a very important question which is the #1 reason I think players don't like the pre-tests.

                              If the same number comes up 5 times in the same position during the pre-tests, why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

                              There are two answers to this question.

                              1) They think someone tampered with the balls or machines in some way like what happened in Pa. Which is what led to all the pre and post draw tests that they do now. Obviously the security wasn't that good back then, which led to the tampering. But nowadays the security is so stringent it's impossible for one person to get to the balls. Several people need to be present for the machine set up and drawings to be conducted, not to mention all the 24 hour video cameras that are present. So this is a BS reason.

                              2)  If the same number comes up 5 times in a row in the same position (or not) during the pre-tests, why isn't this considered to be the "randomness" of the game?  Something unusual happens during the pre test and now all of a sudden the officials say, "That's not random. We need to change the balls."  That implies one of two things.  Either one, they have a security issue which is unlikely. (See above).  Or two, the games are not meant to be completely random. The fact that they change the ball sets proves this. Other wise why would they do it?

                              They are always insisting that everything is completely random. However, they are pretty quick to change the balls or machines if they think something doesn't look right in the pre-tests.

                              Recently in Md. we had the following happen. Sixteen doubles in one month in the Pick 3. That is the average of 27%, however 14 of the doubles were on the evening and only 2 on the midday. July and August had 8, Pick 4 double-doubles. May-June had 8, Pick 4 triples. All of these could be considered very unusual by the players, but if we were to question the lottery officials, we would be told, "It's all completely random" because it happened in the official draws. So if something unusual happens in the pre-test draws, why are the officials so quick to say something is wrong and change the balls? Why is "random" in the pre-tests different from "random" in the official draws?

                              We've all seen numbers go on a hot streak and hit 6, 7, 8, 9 days in a row in the official draws, but the officials try to prevent hot streaks in the pre-tests (by changing ball sets) because they don't want them to continue into the official draws, where the players may pick up on it. That is how pre-tests can effect the official draws. 

                              I don't know if this is a good analogy or not but, it would be like if your local bowling alley had a promotion where they would pay someone $5,000 for rolling a perfect game, and you have 9 strikes in a row and then they want you to change lanes for the 10th frame.

                              As usual, grwurston is on another common sense mission here.Yes Nod I recently commented on how many times I've seen a single digit drawn in the same position (4) times in a row during their so-called 'official results' draw. Well, as you've stated here, they seem to have some BS protocol in place for if that same thing happens during pre-tests but, nothing was done after those particular instances.No Nod I'm seeing a serious disconnect here and, once again, it has to do with the verbiage they use. Whether a digit repeats in the pre-tests or the official results that same (4) times should actually warrant the same protocol(s), right? I mean, we're discussing the same occurrence taking place over the same amount of draws here but, there's no suspicion from them as long as it happens in the official results BSI Agree! with you 100%. These people purposely implement such procedures to prevent common sense system players from easily capitalizing on the natural and un-disrupted flow of numbers. As far as your very last sentence goes, I'll take it even farther. Not only make them change lanes but, MAKE THEM USE A DIFFERENT BALL, TOO!!Green laughYes NodLOLBlue Thinking It's reassuring to still have people like yourself and many others around. Thumbs Up

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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