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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 16 days ago by Soledad.

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CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
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June 3, 2004
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Posted: September 20, 2016, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

As usual, grwurston is on another common sense mission here.Yes Nod I recently commented on how many times I've seen a single digit drawn in the same position (4) times in a row during their so-called 'official results' draw. Well, as you've stated here, they seem to have some BS protocol in place for if that same thing happens during pre-tests but, nothing was done after those particular instances.No Nod I'm seeing a serious disconnect here and, once again, it has to do with the verbiage they use. Whether a digit repeats in the pre-tests or the official results that same (4) times should actually warrant the same protocol(s), right? I mean, we're discussing the same occurrence taking place over the same amount of draws here but, there's no suspicion from them as long as it happens in the official results BSI Agree! with you 100%. These people purposely implement such procedures to prevent common sense system players from easily capitalizing on the natural and un-disrupted flow of numbers. As far as your very last sentence goes, I'll take it even farther. Not only make them change lanes but, MAKE THEM USE A DIFFERENT BALL, TOO!!Green laughYes NodLOLBlue Thinking It's reassuring to still have people like yourself and many others around. Thumbs Up

That is my sentiment exactly!! That is probably one of the reasons, or maybe the main reason, they don't want to publish the test draws?? WTG grwurston!! This should, without any doubt be brought to the attention of the press.

    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
    Texas
    United States
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    1648 Posts
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    Posted: September 20, 2016, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

    That is my sentiment exactly!! That is probably one of the reasons, or maybe the main reason, they don't want to publish the test draws?? WTG grwurston!! This should, without any doubt be brought to the attention of the press.

    Yes NodYes. The problem, though, is that it would take more than just a few scattered players, CARBOB. If it doesn't affect them in some significant form, be it financially or press-wise with proof, then they'll just write it off as a few disgruntled players which won't help. Make no mistake, I'm not picking on them and I honestly enjoy their Pick games but, there's just too much inconsistency and gray areas where I see the players at an UNWARRANTED ADDITIONAL DISADVANTAGE. I'm for the PLAYERS 'cause if it weren't for the players' participation, neither we nor they would have either game. Still, I feel we need a fair chance to clear the air on this.Smash

    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

    #lotto-4-a-living

      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
      United States
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      Posted: September 20, 2016, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

      Yes NodYes. The problem, though, is that it would take more than just a few scattered players, CARBOB. If it doesn't affect them in some significant form, be it financially or press-wise with proof, then they'll just write it off as a few disgruntled players which won't help. Make no mistake, I'm not picking on them and I honestly enjoy their Pick games but, there's just too much inconsistency and gray areas where I see the players at an UNWARRANTED ADDITIONAL DISADVANTAGE. I'm for the PLAYERS 'cause if it weren't for the players' participation, neither we nor they would have either game. Still, I feel we need a fair chance to clear the air on this.Smash

      You are correct. I have asked many people in Publix, " are you aware they conduct, "pre-draws", in the draws.Their answer is always the same, what does that mean? I explain the procedure. Their response is, why do they do that? I can't explain why, because I don't know why.

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
        Texas
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        January 30, 2010
        1648 Posts
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        Posted: September 20, 2016, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

        Well, you know me, I'm always sifting through the forums for evidence and I wasn't disappointed. The following link has a great exchange between onlymoney, whom I've exchanged with in the past, and LottoMetro whom I've never been 'cyber-acquainted'  with. I actually invented that termYes Nod and it can't be found.LOL Anyway, their exchange falls within the same context of probabilities regarding pre-tests but, it's just so funny the way it all went down with the analogies used.Green laughThen, there's another poster by the name of pamelab who seemed to get it. I suppose that what onlymoney said rang a bell with me 'cause I recently said that the commissions 'launder' the numbers with four pre-tests. Page 1.

         

        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/283570

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

          butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
          The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
          Elgin, IL
          United States
          Member #68867
          January 1, 2009
          1221 Posts
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          Posted: September 20, 2016, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

          Every combination does not have the same probability.....

          IL Pick 4 Top combinations from 01/01/11 thru 01//19/16  With 18 hits each is 2 7 8 9 & 0 4 6 8

           

          2013-05-21M2789
          2011-05-08E2798
          2014-12-04E2879
          2011-11-07M2897
          2014-10-15M2897
          2011-05-27E2978
          2013-05-20M2978
          2012-02-06E2987
          2016-08-07E7289
          2013-11-29E7829
          2011-02-06E7982
          2016-01-23E8279
          2014-04-08E8297
          2013-04-28M8927
          2011-10-13E9278
          2012-06-15E9278
          2015-06-22M9278
          2014-07-04M9728
                     
          2013-02-19E0468
          2014-12-17M0648
          2012-01-31M0864
          2012-11-16M0864
          2015-06-06E0864
          2013-10-13M4086
          2015-07-29M4086
          2014-11-03M4608
          2011-02-24E4680
          2015-04-26E4806
          2011-09-08M4860
          2015-11-16M4860
          2015-01-04M6048
          2013-03-23E6480
          2014-06-05M6480
          2016-04-07M6840
          2015-10-11M8406
          2011-05-08M8604

          From 01/17/98 thru 09/19/16, the IL LOTTO has had 2,548 drawings.  Of which 36 have matched 5 of 6 twice in a total of 72 drawings.

          12014-09-158 12 14 18 22 31
          22015-04-188 12 18 22 31 39
                         
          32000-11-113 17 22 26 30 47
          42008-09-203 20 22 26 30 47
                         
          52003-02-194 9 15 25 28 38
          62010-06-264 9 15 25 38 42
                         
          72001-09-1226 30 34 35 46 47
          82003-07-0918 26 30 35 46 47
                         
          92002-11-0626 27 28 41 47 50
          102004-12-1526 27 28 31 41 50
                         
          112000-10-0410 12 15 24 47 51
          122014-12-156 10 12 15 24 47
                         
          132015-06-083 6 27 29 32 50
          142016-03-033 6 8 27 29 50
                         
          152007-04-1815 23 33 43 45 46
          162015-02-213 15 23 43 45 46
                         
          172000-02-055 6 41 42 50 51
          182006-09-306 35 41 42 50 51
                         
          192000-09-023 12 14 23 31 36
          202011-02-283 12 14 23 30 36
                         
          212001-02-037 8 16 28 37 51
          222005-09-267 8 9 16 28 37
                         
          232001-01-2426 36 37 40 48 49
          242007-03-1226 36 37 39 48 49
                         
          252009-10-245 23 32 41 42 45
          262015-05-025 32 35 41 42 45
                         
          272001-03-171 4 11 12 16 34
          282001-04-071 4 11 16 33 34
                         
          292001-04-2811 13 33 34 36 48
          302007-02-214 11 13 34 36 48
                         
          312002-01-161 23 25 29 33 52
          322014-06-021 23 25 29 36 52
                         
          332006-05-244 5 21 25 28 49
          342006-07-224 5 13 21 25 49
                         
          352005-08-2423 27 33 35 41 43
          362010-08-1118 23 33 35 41 43
                         
          372006-09-068 12 24 31 39 50
          382013-10-218 12 24 30 39 50
                         
          392010-05-298 13 23 34 44 51
          402011-06-048 13 28 34 44 51
                         
          412005-02-127 9 18 32 40 43
          422007-05-097 9 32 40 43 47
                         
          432005-05-042 17 18 20 38 50
          442010-12-012 15 17 18 20 38
                         
          452011-04-304 28 38 45 47 52
          462013-08-264 28 30 38 45 52
                         
          472010-01-182 7 9 27 45 52
          482013-04-242 7 27 36 45 52
                         
          492009-07-184 14 28 37 40 44
          502011-10-264 14 28 37 40 48
                         
          511999-02-131 7 19 29 30 39
          522010-04-241 5 7 19 29 30
                         
          531998-04-2915 22 26 27 31 40
          542010-07-1922 26 27 31 40 48
                         
          552008-05-211 12 14 19 26 45
          562015-04-091 12 14 19 24 26
                         
          572006-11-183 8 22 24 39 45
          582012-04-183 8 22 24 26 39
                         
          592011-07-1111 31 33 40 44 45
          602012-11-0311 25 31 40 44 45
                         
          612003-01-017 22 30 38 40 51
          622013-03-163 7 22 30 40 51
                         
          632000-02-0219 20 29 40 49 51
          642015-02-054 19 20 40 49 51
                         
          652010-08-1616 19 25 29 31 42
          662014-12-276 16 19 25 31 42
                         
          672004-06-264 7 12 19 45 48
          682015-07-117 12 19 38 45 48
                         
          692001-11-218 14 26 39 40 43
          702002-12-047 8 26 39 40 43
                         
          711999-05-0510 11 15 36 38 45
          722016-01-1111 15 26 36 38 45
            butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
            The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
            Elgin, IL
            United States
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            January 1, 2009
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            Posted: September 20, 2016, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

            From the same Period given above for the IL Lotto above - 86% of the total drawings have matched 4 of 6 numbers Multiple times which I have put into 545 Groups.

            There are combinations & patterns found in every single Jackpot game that I looked at - barr none......................

            The odds of winning are not the same as chances of winning.  You can never change the odds, but you sure in the heck can improve your chances...............

            Here is my update for the last drawing

            2000-03-042 11 16 18 44 48
            2008-02-0616 20 36 42 44 48
            2014-03-1511 16 31 36 44 48
            2015-08-222 11 14 18 26 48
            2016-09-1910 19 20 42 44 48
              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
              Texas
              United States
              Member #86154
              January 30, 2010
              1648 Posts
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              Posted: September 20, 2016, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

              Every combination does not have the same probability.....

              IL Pick 4 Top combinations from 01/01/11 thru 01//19/16  With 18 hits each is 2 7 8 9 & 0 4 6 8

               

              2013-05-21M2789
              2011-05-08E2798
              2014-12-04E2879
              2011-11-07M2897
              2014-10-15M2897
              2011-05-27E2978
              2013-05-20M2978
              2012-02-06E2987
              2016-08-07E7289
              2013-11-29E7829
              2011-02-06E7982
              2016-01-23E8279
              2014-04-08E8297
              2013-04-28M8927
              2011-10-13E9278
              2012-06-15E9278
              2015-06-22M9278
              2014-07-04M9728
                         
              2013-02-19E0468
              2014-12-17M0648
              2012-01-31M0864
              2012-11-16M0864
              2015-06-06E0864
              2013-10-13M4086
              2015-07-29M4086
              2014-11-03M4608
              2011-02-24E4680
              2015-04-26E4806
              2011-09-08M4860
              2015-11-16M4860
              2015-01-04M6048
              2013-03-23E6480
              2014-06-05M6480
              2016-04-07M6840
              2015-10-11M8406
              2011-05-08M8604

              From 01/17/98 thru 09/19/16, the IL LOTTO has had 2,548 drawings.  Of which 36 have matched 5 of 6 twice in a total of 72 drawings.

              12014-09-158 12 14 18 22 31
              22015-04-188 12 18 22 31 39
                             
              32000-11-113 17 22 26 30 47
              42008-09-203 20 22 26 30 47
                             
              52003-02-194 9 15 25 28 38
              62010-06-264 9 15 25 38 42
                             
              72001-09-1226 30 34 35 46 47
              82003-07-0918 26 30 35 46 47
                             
              92002-11-0626 27 28 41 47 50
              102004-12-1526 27 28 31 41 50
                             
              112000-10-0410 12 15 24 47 51
              122014-12-156 10 12 15 24 47
                             
              132015-06-083 6 27 29 32 50
              142016-03-033 6 8 27 29 50
                             
              152007-04-1815 23 33 43 45 46
              162015-02-213 15 23 43 45 46
                             
              172000-02-055 6 41 42 50 51
              182006-09-306 35 41 42 50 51
                             
              192000-09-023 12 14 23 31 36
              202011-02-283 12 14 23 30 36
                             
              212001-02-037 8 16 28 37 51
              222005-09-267 8 9 16 28 37
                             
              232001-01-2426 36 37 40 48 49
              242007-03-1226 36 37 39 48 49
                             
              252009-10-245 23 32 41 42 45
              262015-05-025 32 35 41 42 45
                             
              272001-03-171 4 11 12 16 34
              282001-04-071 4 11 16 33 34
                             
              292001-04-2811 13 33 34 36 48
              302007-02-214 11 13 34 36 48
                             
              312002-01-161 23 25 29 33 52
              322014-06-021 23 25 29 36 52
                             
              332006-05-244 5 21 25 28 49
              342006-07-224 5 13 21 25 49
                             
              352005-08-2423 27 33 35 41 43
              362010-08-1118 23 33 35 41 43
                             
              372006-09-068 12 24 31 39 50
              382013-10-218 12 24 30 39 50
                             
              392010-05-298 13 23 34 44 51
              402011-06-048 13 28 34 44 51
                             
              412005-02-127 9 18 32 40 43
              422007-05-097 9 32 40 43 47
                             
              432005-05-042 17 18 20 38 50
              442010-12-012 15 17 18 20 38
                             
              452011-04-304 28 38 45 47 52
              462013-08-264 28 30 38 45 52
                             
              472010-01-182 7 9 27 45 52
              482013-04-242 7 27 36 45 52
                             
              492009-07-184 14 28 37 40 44
              502011-10-264 14 28 37 40 48
                             
              511999-02-131 7 19 29 30 39
              522010-04-241 5 7 19 29 30
                             
              531998-04-2915 22 26 27 31 40
              542010-07-1922 26 27 31 40 48
                             
              552008-05-211 12 14 19 26 45
              562015-04-091 12 14 19 24 26
                             
              572006-11-183 8 22 24 39 45
              582012-04-183 8 22 24 26 39
                             
              592011-07-1111 31 33 40 44 45
              602012-11-0311 25 31 40 44 45
                             
              612003-01-017 22 30 38 40 51
              622013-03-163 7 22 30 40 51
                             
              632000-02-0219 20 29 40 49 51
              642015-02-054 19 20 40 49 51
                             
              652010-08-1616 19 25 29 31 42
              662014-12-276 16 19 25 31 42
                             
              672004-06-264 7 12 19 45 48
              682015-07-117 12 19 38 45 48
                             
              692001-11-218 14 26 39 40 43
              702002-12-047 8 26 39 40 43
                             
              711999-05-0510 11 15 36 38 45
              722016-01-1111 15 26 36 38 45

              Unless I missed something in my search, I couldn't find a single word on pre-testing in Illinois but, they've also been digital since September of last year...giving up mechanical methods along with live airing.LOL Oh me, oh my! So, what you now have is a digital procedure used to draw the same numbers that you're now not allowed to see. Just trust what they say are the 'official numbers', right? Naughty Okay, I'll meet them half way on this. It's no secret that Illinois has had budget issues for some time now and that it almost certainly affected staffing for lottery draws. Still, though, if the same security is required to protect the integrity of the drawsYes Nod, then what's the difference if they simply tape the draw procedures and have them filed as back up?What? In this case, who knows how many tests they actually conduct, and, just which draw they use for the winner?No No See, this is just so full of BS to me because why would a dang computer's software need to be 'pre-tested' ANYWAY? BS What wears out?No NodRed DevilCussing Face 

              Looking at that chart, I'm sticking with my argument for sure.

              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

              #lotto-4-a-living

                grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                Winning makes me smile.
                bel air maryland
                United States
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                April 24, 2010
                4866 Posts
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                Posted: September 20, 2016, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

                Well, you know me, I'm always sifting through the forums for evidence and I wasn't disappointed. The following link has a great exchange between onlymoney, whom I've exchanged with in the past, and LottoMetro whom I've never been 'cyber-acquainted'  with. I actually invented that termYes Nod and it can't be found.LOL Anyway, their exchange falls within the same context of probabilities regarding pre-tests but, it's just so funny the way it all went down with the analogies used.Green laughThen, there's another poster by the name of pamelab who seemed to get it. I suppose that what onlymoney said rang a bell with me 'cause I recently said that the commissions 'launder' the numbers with four pre-tests. Page 1.

                 

                https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/283570

                Lucky Loser, I enjoy reading your posts and I'm glad you brought up that link with pamelab's comments about the NC lottery

                recording several draws in one day. Maybe this is a stretch but, since only Texas and maybe one or two other states let the

                public see the pre-test draws, I'm now wondering if other states tape the pre-tests, and show the one "live" that they select

                 as the "official" draw. The lotteries already know what numbers have been played before the drawings take place, why not

                show the pre-test as the official draw, the number that has been played the least? If one state (NC) does it who's to say that

                others don't also.  Not Good if they do.

                "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                  grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                  Winning makes me smile.
                  bel air maryland
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                  4866 Posts
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                  Posted: September 20, 2016, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                  That is my sentiment exactly!! That is probably one of the reasons, or maybe the main reason, they don't want to publish the test draws?? WTG grwurston!! This should, without any doubt be brought to the attention of the press.

                  This would be an excellent subject to bring up if Todd ever has a lottery official come on again to answer questions. 

                  Unfortunately, they would probably give us the same old, same old standard excuse / reason and then say,"next question." 

                  Although I do remember the last time, him (the official) commenting ball drawings can be rigged. I don't know if that was a

                  Pa. reference or not. But it was late in the hour and there wasn't  time to follow up with more questions.

                  "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                  The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                  Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                    Avatar
                    New York, NY
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                    Posted: September 20, 2016, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

                    ..."Pre-tests are an aspect of the lottery that touch on the subject of randomness in general. However in the end, it doesn't matter if the lottery skip drawings..as long as the pre-tests are random. Meaning the commission does a number of tests, 3,4, or 5, fake draws. And they don't look at them to analyze them based on any criteria, such as avoiding a number that typically has a high payout. If the lottery commissons don't care at all about the pre-test draws then it should be considered random. They must also never change the drawing set to be official. Ideally the random events must be serial, not parallel (...fairness)..... It is safe to ignore the pre-tests. The lottery results with or without pre-tests follow one and only one law, The Fundamental Formula of Gambling, this law does not apply if and only if the test drawings are manipulated. But randomness is based on the exclusion of manipulation."

                     These are the words of Ion Saliu.

                      ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

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                      Posted: September 20, 2016, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

                      Which states publish their pre-draw numbers? Any besides Texas?

                        butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
                        The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
                        Elgin, IL
                        United States
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                        Posted: September 20, 2016, 8:11 pm - IP Logged

                        Machines are man made & computers are man made along with the software that goes with it.  As long as you do not have a complete vacuum, you will always have combinations & patterns.

                        Here are the top STRAIGHT drawings in the IL Pick 4 in drawings from 01/01/11 thru 09/19/16.  Yet many numbers have never hit straight in the time frame given.  The total drawings in the time frame given is 4,178 drawings.

                        2011-01-22M9127
                        2014-06-13E9127
                        2014-07-06M9127
                        2015-11-26E9127
                                   
                        2011-03-13E4394
                        2011-08-20M4394
                        2011-11-19E4394
                        2015-01-15M4394
                        2015-06-27M4394
                                   
                        2011-04-14E6710
                        2012-04-16E6710
                        2014-02-26E6710
                        2016-01-11E6710
                                   
                        2013-05-14M4908
                        2014-03-10E4908
                        2014-05-01E4908
                        2015-07-06M4908
                                   
                        2011-11-22E1162
                        2012-10-02M1162
                        2013-02-08E1162
                        2016-03-05M1162
                                   
                        2012-04-25M7475
                        2013-03-21M7475
                        2013-12-24E7475
                        2015-08-03E7475
                              
                        2011-11-26M5172
                        2012-06-26E5172
                        2014-01-31M5172
                        2016-04-12E5172

                        I have found combinations & patterns in all the states that I have looked at - not just IL.   Hell. I found combinations & patterns in Foreign Lotteries.  I love the combinations that come up in the Canada Lotto Max which has 7 numbers in each drawing.

                        Good Luck & Best Wishes To ALL & To ALL, a Good Night..........................

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                          Texas
                          United States
                          Member #86154
                          January 30, 2010
                          1648 Posts
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                          Posted: September 20, 2016, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

                          Lucky Loser, I enjoy reading your posts and I'm glad you brought up that link with pamelab's comments about the NC lottery

                          recording several draws in one day. Maybe this is a stretch but, since only Texas and maybe one or two other states let the

                          public see the pre-test draws, I'm now wondering if other states tape the pre-tests, and show the one "live" that they select

                           as the "official" draw. The lotteries already know what numbers have been played before the drawings take place, why not

                          show the pre-test as the official draw, the number that has been played the least? If one state (NC) does it who's to say that

                          others don't also.  Not Good if they do.

                          Thank you! As well, I thoroughly enjoy reading yours and others. In the words of Paurths, "Cheers." Cheers Now, just to further illustrate that I do indeed conduct research on things I honestly care about, I have another link which dates all the way to 2004...well before I came along. There's a member in that link named 'interceptor' who joined in December 2003 and his last post was June 21, 2011. Go and read his first post there, and, I'm certain you'll smile once you see the language he used. Wow! Smash I believe it's only a matter of time before all this madness comes to a head.Smash

                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/78996

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

                            bobby623's avatar - abstract
                            San Angelo, Texas
                            United States
                            Member #1097
                            January 31, 2003
                            1394 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 20, 2016, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

                            The Illinois lottery has a video describing their digital draw system, or RNG.
                            After a particular game is selected, several tests are run to make sure drawings are random.
                            The video shows possibility of 8 tests, but no permutations are shown.
                            I doubt that there are any pre-tests to log and report, as it is done in Texas.
                            So it seems states with computer drawings run some kind of tests before each drawing.
                            What affect the tests have on the official winning permutations is unknown.

                              Avatar
                              New York, NY
                              United States
                              Member #140634
                              March 23, 2013
                              2964 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: September 21, 2016, 5:53 am - IP Logged

                              In random processes repeating digits, pairs, and numbers in general happen more often than one would think. It is biased in respect to the odds of the game, to consider that every single combination of 2-7-9-8 or 0-4-6-8 should be considered to be the same number. Because each different combination of that number has different payouts. Again, you must consider the odds as part of the game. You cannot be biased with making up your own version of the truth.

                                 
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