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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 17 days ago by Soledad.

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bel air maryland
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Posted: September 23, 2016, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

Thanks to Stack47 for posting this link. It is about the Pa. rigged draw and how they do the drawings.  Also watch the slide show. Very interesting.

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304449/4703727 

(Pay attention to the paragraph that starts with,  At 5pm a minimum of six people...)

This below, is from the slide show.

Though the live drawing lasts 60 seconds, it takes hours to prepare. Lottery officials conduct nine pre-draws, three rehearsal draws, a verification drawing and two post-draws to ensure no statistical parameters have been violated.

Pay attention to these words. ...TO ENSURE NO STATISTICAL PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN VIOLATED.

What does that tell you? Anything unusual, out of the ordinary, unlikely, or truly random is not allowed...

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

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    New York, NY
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    Posted: September 23, 2016, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

    That's interesting. 9 pre-draws is a lot. And the word parameter suggests that they have a value for the results and the amount of draws that they do. If 8 shows up for 5 pre-test draws, then that only means the chances are greater for at least 5 of the other numbers to not show at least once.

      But in statistics you have theorems as well that state that as your sample size increases the distribution of mean approaches the normal distribution. 9 pre-test draws is not a very large sample size. It is actually small to base the theory that there is something wrong with the machine, and the idea to change it. Changing the machine in my opinion makes it more unfair. So they seem to be setting a limit perhaps on how often numbers appear.

      I mean I could say that I could understand it in that way. I have to think about this some more. But I've been saying lotto has to do with statistics for years..

      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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      Posted: September 23, 2016, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

      I could be completely wrong, but my understanding is that is a ball set fails the pre-tests for Texas Lottery Daily 4 if it repeats five times in the same chamber. At that point, lottery officials might believe something about that ball set and chamber combination is biased somehow during those particular pre-tests.

      Maybe the lottery officials don't think a number repeating (in the same chamber or not?) in four consecutive official draws is an issue because the same ball set or machine would most likely not be used in four consecutive official draws.

      I wonder what the lottery officials think about four consecutive repeats (in the same chamber or not?) that span pre-tests and official draws? Like the last 2 pre-tests, the official draw, and the first pre-test of the next draw. Or the last pre-test, the official draw, and the first 2 pre-tests of the next draw.

      Just thinking out loud, and putting something (that could be nonsense) out there for consideration...

      In Texas they use the same machine for the entire month. For example, for Pick 3, they are using machine "H" for all the draws. For Daily 4, they are using machine "I". However, they do use different ballsets for each draw. This is all published every day on the Tx Lottery website.

      I can't say anything about other states, but the fact that my state is so transparent, I don't concern myself about the pre-test draws. My advice is to use the official draw results to work out your next number to play.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

      A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: September 23, 2016, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

        "If lotteries conduct tests to see if there's an 'indication of a problem', then isn't that the same as seeing if things are working correctly "

        No. Maybe not being able to figure that out on your own is related to your confusion about other things. Whether or not I do things that result in wear and tear to my vehicles depends on whether or not I have a reason to do it. It's really that simple, so  there's no reason it should confuse you. I don't think the lottery needs to do as much testing as they do, but it's their choice and  there's a logical reason for it even if that logic is based on an inflated concern about the possibility that  an unlikely test result indicates an actual problem. Since I'm not an idiot I know that the tests have no effect on the actual results that will determine whether or not I win anything, so I don't care if they do more than  they need to.

        "That's what you told us in the third post down right here:"

        I'm sorry that reality confuses and bothers you, but that's just the way it is. For my part, I don't care. Since I'm not an idiot I know that it's only the winning result that matters, and my chances if winning are the same no matter how many test drawing they do.

         

        "Don't test me by asking me stupid question BOY !"

        Aww. I must have hit a nerve. I suppose that's good news, because it indicates that deep inside you have at least a glimmer of recognition that I'm right. About your intellectual and reasoning abilities, that is. I don't see any evidence at all that there's even the barest glimmer of actual understanding about probability.

        "the more you flip a coin, and the flips show the same side, the more of a chance it will try to balance itself out."

        And there you go again. First, you're apparently not smart enough to have answered the actual question, and second you're claiming yet again that coins have some kind of magical ability to decide whether they should land heads or tails. There are literally millions and millions of past coin flips making it absolutely clear that the next flip is still a 50/50 chance, but there's something about the way your mind works that prevents you from  figuring it out.

         

        "But they assume there is something wrong after only 4 or 5 in a row."

        You're making assumptions. If you want to know why they do something or what they think you'll have to ask them, because we can only guess about the reasons. My guess is that they've just got a simple policy that when they get a result that's sufficiently unlikely they switch to different equipment because the unlikely result could indicate a problem, not because they're sure it does. They know that every result they get, whether in a test or the official drawing is unlikely, and I doubt that they actually think there's a  real problem just because  they get a very unlikely result.

        As for tests vs actual results, I don't need to guess about whether it's you or them that knows more about the actual probabilities. They  know that getting the same number in 8 consecutive drawings isn't  particularly unlikely. In fact, they know exactly what the chances are, and they know that's it's orders of magnitude more likely than drawing the same number 5 times in a row during the tests. I do have to guess, but I'm pretty sure you've got no idea how likely it is. Perhaps you're also forgetting that, unlike the 5 test drawings,  what you see as the same number 8 days in a row wasn't the result of using the same machine and ball set for each drawing. Of course that doesn't affect the probability, but it definitely has a role in deciding if the repeats are the result of the equipment producing non-random results.

         

        "Call me a conspiracy person"

        I thought we established that a long time ago. As near as I can tell what you're doing now is trying to establish that you're just plain crazy.

        Aww. I must have hit a nerve. I suppose that's good news, because it indicates that deep inside you have at least a glimmer of recognition that I'm right. About your intellectual and reasoning abilities, that is. I don't see any evidence at all that there's even the barest glimmer of actual understanding about probability.

        The only thing that's glimmering is your brain activity. Keep asking me stupid questions and I'll remind you how stupid you are.

         

         

         

        And there you go again. First, you're apparently not smart enough to have answered the actual question, and second you're claiming yet again that coins have some kind of magical ability to decide whether they should land heads or tails. There are literally millions and millions of past coin flips making it absolutely clear that the next flip is still a 50/50 chance, but there's something about the way your mind works that prevents you from  figuring it out.

        Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips. Your brain can't go past the garbage that your Universities have brainwashed you with. My god, you are worse off than I thought.

         

         

         

         

        I thought we established that a long time ago. As near as I can tell what you're doing now is trying to establish that you're just plain crazy.

        I've established not too long ago that you and a few others here have basic comprehension and retention abilities. Retards like you usually have those discrepancies.

         

         

        How convenient that you, cointoss and stuck47 evade my questions. Typical of people like you who avoid answering questions that I've been posting now for like a hundred times. It's okay, I already know your ilk, cowards who don't have the guts to admit a casino would close down, or my reference to the vault and the camera. Your crap don't work with me Jellyman.

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          Kentucky
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          Posted: September 23, 2016, 10:41 pm - IP Logged

          So sad at your poor attempt to rationalize and justify all of this. 

           

          No explanation yet huh? Just a lot of double talk.

           

          Silly that you need this explained to you, but casinos are in business to get hands of cards dealt, rolls of the dice, and spins of the roulette wheel. 

          This is your explanation?..ahaha ahha ahahhaha ahahahahaha ahaha ahaha ahahaha ahahahaha ahaha aha ahaha ahaha ahaha ahahahha ahahahahahha aha aha ahahaha ahahha!!!!!!!!!!

           

          You are dumber than the KY Jelly manufacturer and the the guys who is STUCK on 47.

           

          ANSWER MY QUESTION!!!!, HOW LONG WOULD THE DOORS REMAIN OPEN IF THE CASINOS PULLED THE SAME CRAP AS LOTTERIES DO??????????????????????????

           

          DON'T BOTHER, YOU CAN'T ANSWER A SIMPLE QUESTION !

          BECAUSE YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER AND TOO EMBARRASSED TO ADMIT THEY WOULD SHUT DOWN THE SAME DAY THEY IMPLEMENTED THE SAME RULES AS THE LOTTERIES !

          "You are dumber than the KY Jelly manufacturer and the the guys who is STUCK on 47."

          How many LP members are you planning to insult?

          "ANSWER MY QUESTION!!!!, HOW LONG WOULD THE DOORS REMAIN OPEN IF THE CASINOS PULLED THE SAME CRAP AS LOTTERIES DO??????????????????????????"

          It's a hypothetical question and it's so ignorant it doesn't deserve an answer. Especially considering no casino said "let's copy the lottery testing".

            amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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            Posted: September 23, 2016, 11:50 pm - IP Logged

            "You are dumber than the KY Jelly manufacturer and the the guys who is STUCK on 47."

            How many LP members are you planning to insult?

            "ANSWER MY QUESTION!!!!, HOW LONG WOULD THE DOORS REMAIN OPEN IF THE CASINOS PULLED THE SAME CRAP AS LOTTERIES DO??????????????????????????"

            It's a hypothetical question and it's so ignorant it doesn't deserve an answer. Especially considering no casino said "let's copy the lottery testing".

            How many LP members are you planning to insult?

            I apologize if you think it's an insult. DEJA VU, No?....Didn't we have this discussion a few months ago? I distinctly remember suggesting you attend psychological treatment. It's like the movie.."What about Bob?". The patient not only has paranoid issues, but also wouldn't go away....lol

            Again, you never took my advice the first time, and now you still refuse. It's in your court my friend. I've done all I can do.

             

             

             

             

             

            It's a hypothetical question and it's so ignorant it doesn't deserve an answer. Especially considering no casino said "let's copy the lottery testing".

            Sorry you lack the ability to answer a probable hypothetical question. So you're bound only to answering real-life questions? You should expand your horizons and take those blinders off.

            Your last sentence was the tipping point for me, as far as how mentally impotent you really are. As If I ever claimed that in my example, a Casino "SAID" as you put it, to copy the lottery. Who said that? Not I!

            Stop putting ideas/words into my mind/mouth, thanks. You are incompetent, you can't comprehend simple concepts, this is a prime example. What I was saying is that the idea of implementing is so ludicrous, no gambling establishment would even consider this much less implement it, they'd laugh in the think tank, in fact that guy wouldn't even qualify to be there in the first place..lol....Only you would think any entity would entertain such a gastly endeavor...But when the officials do it, Everything is honky dory..??????????????????????

            Your last sentence confirmed to me it went flying over your head at 792 miles per hour....swooooosh !

              a562soldier's avatar - a562soldier
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              Posted: September 24, 2016, 12:04 am - IP Logged

              What a disgusting forum. So this is what its become. No wonder I don't like coming here. Im out.

                Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                Posted: September 24, 2016, 3:30 am - IP Logged

                Thanks to Stack47 for posting this link. It is about the Pa. rigged draw and how they do the drawings.  Also watch the slide show. Very interesting.

                https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/304449/4703727 

                (Pay attention to the paragraph that starts with,  At 5pm a minimum of six people...)

                This below, is from the slide show.

                Though the live drawing lasts 60 seconds, it takes hours to prepare. Lottery officials conduct nine pre-draws, three rehearsal draws, a verification drawing and two post-draws to ensure no statistical parameters have been violated.

                Pay attention to these words. ...TO ENSURE NO STATISTICAL PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN VIOLATED.

                What does that tell you? Anything unusual, out of the ordinary, unlikely, or truly random is not allowed...

                No Nod Just like we've all been saying the whole time, it's BS from start to finish. What in he!! is a 'rehearsal drawing'What?FrownSkepticalAgree with stupid I mean, just how hard is it to simply draw (1) ball from each of (3) chambers? SIX PEOPLE? REALLY? Lurking Group Hug     LMAO!!! Wanna talk about wasteful?LOL

                 

                Lottery officials conduct nine pre-draws, three rehearsal draws, a verification drawing and two post-draws

                Green laughUnless I clearly missed something here, that's a total of (15) draws! Dupe Alert Think they're tearing up a machine here and thereNaughty? Oh, but I know a little about Pa draws, too. Yeah, see, they actually utilize a different method for midday and evening draws if my memory serves. One is mechanical while the other is RNG. I'm really struggling with trying to understand just why different equipment is needed to select the same 0-9 number combosWhat?FrownNo Nod

                Anything unusual, out of the ordinary, unlikely, or truly random is not allowed...

                You'd be correct, sir, and the reason why is right here below...great article!! Please read the entire following article, and, especially, the excerpt:

                https://www.lotterypost.com/news/89818

                -Even though lottery tickets state the "Hoosier Lottery reserves the right to limit the selection of certain numbers," it does so to limit the lottery's liability in a particular drawing, Ross said. If too many people play the same number, and that number is chosen by the lottery, the lottery could have to pay out far more than it takes in. To be able to do that, of course -- and to know where winning tickets are sold -- the lottery's computers must keep track of the numbers played by the public.-

                Like I said in a previous post, they're laundering 'reasonably anticipated winning combos' with the pre-tests...'cause they know players have enough common sense to eliminate predictably losing one'sYes Nod. No brainer. So, what they do is throw in a few wrenches called pre-tests into the mix, to purge most of those high payout numbers, in lieu of a low payout called an 'OFFICIAL DRAW.' Smash I'll leave it right there for now.

                Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                #lotto-4-a-living

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                  New York, NY
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                  Posted: September 24, 2016, 6:12 am - IP Logged

                  That's interesting. 9 pre-draws is a lot. And the word parameter suggests that they have a value for the results and the amount of draws that they do. If 8 shows up for 5 pre-test draws, then that only means the chances are greater for at least 5 of the other numbers to not show at least once.

                    But in statistics you have theorems as well that state that as your sample size increases the distribution of mean approaches the normal distribution. 9 pre-test draws is not a very large sample size. It is actually small to base the theory that there is something wrong with the machine, and the idea to change it. Changing the machine in my opinion makes it more unfair. So they seem to be setting a limit perhaps on how often numbers appear.

                    I mean I could say that I could understand it in that way. I have to think about this some more. But I've been saying lotto has to do with statistics for years..

                    When I said the changing of the machines makes it more unfair, I was speaking as a player who wants to win and not lose money doing it.The changing of the machines only changes the timing of a number showing. It does not change the nature or idea of the game itself.

                     RNG and computer algorithms operate on 'seeds' or timers. The lower the 'seed' is, the lesser the degree of randomness there is.          There was a story of keno players, who figured out that the same keno numbers were coming up at the same time of the day on different days. That was because the seed never changed. The timer never changed. Players have problems with stories like these, because it changes their idea of how and what the game should be, random and fair.

                    The free online lotteries are more than capable of checking the numbers after they come out and changing them. And they most probably do. The state lotteries, I am not really so sure that either they do or they would. They are vigorously and rigorously regulated, these days especially. It really would take a lot more evidence than what is being implied. It's the degree of randomness I think you're trying to figure out.

                    p4wanbi's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
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                    Posted: September 24, 2016, 7:25 am - IP Logged

                    Lotteries are FOR PROFIT businesses. What uses and benefits do you guys see when debating over the "reassurance" of generating a profit from the people who run them?

                    playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

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                      backwoods ga
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                      Posted: September 24, 2016, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                      Lotteries are FOR PROFIT businesses. What uses and benefits do you guys see when debating over the "reassurance" of generating a profit from the people who run them?

                      most clowns think its a charity.   

                      my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

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                        Posted: September 24, 2016, 10:29 am - IP Logged

                        This is a discussion. Not a debate. Bias is not involved for those who can't seem to get over that. I repeat it is a discussion on the matter of probablility, and probablity also has discussion in the subject of randomness. Plain and simple.

                        *it's more interesting than looking at decimals and saying eureka!

                        Jester Laugh

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          Posted: September 24, 2016, 11:12 am - IP Logged

                          Lotteries are FOR PROFIT businesses. What uses and benefits do you guys see when debating over the "reassurance" of generating a profit from the people who run them?

                          It's well understood that they're in this to profit and that's not where our problem(s) lie. The very idea that they're claiming a random process while clearly taking preventive measures which disrupt 'true randomness' is the concern for us. As another member has accurately identified, they're real goal is too minimize what they pay out and this member is correctWinkYes Nod. Even so, I still take issue with it because no matter what they do, they'll still make BUKUS in profit. They shackle down the draw process with their own system to intentionally try and counter the players' systems when they already have the advantage. Think about that. It's the whole 'in your face' thing while hiding behind random that we're calling BS on. 

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: September 24, 2016, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

                            How many LP members are you planning to insult?

                            I apologize if you think it's an insult. DEJA VU, No?....Didn't we have this discussion a few months ago? I distinctly remember suggesting you attend psychological treatment. It's like the movie.."What about Bob?". The patient not only has paranoid issues, but also wouldn't go away....lol

                            Again, you never took my advice the first time, and now you still refuse. It's in your court my friend. I've done all I can do.

                             

                             

                             

                             

                             

                            It's a hypothetical question and it's so ignorant it doesn't deserve an answer. Especially considering no casino said "let's copy the lottery testing".

                            Sorry you lack the ability to answer a probable hypothetical question. So you're bound only to answering real-life questions? You should expand your horizons and take those blinders off.

                            Your last sentence was the tipping point for me, as far as how mentally impotent you really are. As If I ever claimed that in my example, a Casino "SAID" as you put it, to copy the lottery. Who said that? Not I!

                            Stop putting ideas/words into my mind/mouth, thanks. You are incompetent, you can't comprehend simple concepts, this is a prime example. What I was saying is that the idea of implementing is so ludicrous, no gambling establishment would even consider this much less implement it, they'd laugh in the think tank, in fact that guy wouldn't even qualify to be there in the first place..lol....Only you would think any entity would entertain such a gastly endeavor...But when the officials do it, Everything is honky dory..??????????????????????

                            Your last sentence confirmed to me it went flying over your head at 792 miles per hour....swooooosh !

                            "I apologize if you think it's an insult."

                            Wow, than you must be too stupid to understand what an insult is.

                            "Didn't we have this discussion a few months ago?"

                            Yep and you're still whining over something you have no control of.

                            "I distinctly remember suggesting you attend psychological treatment."

                            Which part of "nobody pays any attention to your useless suggestions" don't you understand?

                            "Sorry you lack the ability to answer a probable hypothetical question."

                            ROFL @ "probable".

                            There isn't a standardize testing for live ball drawings and each state lottery use their own processes. Ask any state lottery and they will say the testing is to insure fair and random drawings.

                            "Your last sentence was the tipping point for me"

                            You keep forgetting most people here don't care what you think. I'm just trying to clear up all the confusion you're causing on "whether or not every combination has the same probability". On page 1, most members were agreeing that each of the 1000 straight combinations have an equal chance.

                            Instead of insults, show your proof of why every straight combinations doesn't have the same chance of winning.

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                              Kentucky
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                              Posted: September 24, 2016, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

                              This is a discussion. Not a debate. Bias is not involved for those who can't seem to get over that. I repeat it is a discussion on the matter of probablility, and probablity also has discussion in the subject of randomness. Plain and simple.

                              *it's more interesting than looking at decimals and saying eureka!

                              Jester Laugh

                              It's either a fact that "every combination has exactly the same chance of winning" or it's not and members are debating which is fact.

                              "and probablity also has discussion in the subject of randomness. Plain and simple."

                              There are many definitions of and opinions about random, but each state lottery decides what they believe is random and by purchasing tickets players agree to the state lottery terms and regulations.

                                 
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