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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 17 days ago by Soledad.

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New York, NY
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Posted: September 26, 2016, 6:19 am - IP Logged

I don't get anything you're saying. All you're saying is "pre-test pre-test pre-test. I'm right." When you come up with some real facts maybe someone will listen. You think you know how the game should be played , but you don't know anything. Good luck LuckyLoser.

I said a lot of things. My argument is not based on one example. And my example still proved that pre-tests only delay a number from coming out. Which is one of the things I said. They don't prevent the number from coming out. Which my example did show. And yours did as well. At least I gave an example.

    bobby623's avatar - abstract
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    Posted: September 26, 2016, 10:29 am - IP Logged

    After watching Dallas beat Chicago, followed by a good night's sleep, I've decided I have no more time for this bullcrap!
    What a waste of time and space this thread has been.
    I have a workout, I win now and then, and there is no chance anyone here is going to change my way of doing things.
    Good luck!

      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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      Posted: September 26, 2016, 10:46 am - IP Logged

      Not to hurt your feelings, but you need more than an expert from the data you posted.

        helpmewin's avatar - dandy
        u$a
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        Posted: September 26, 2016, 10:50 am - IP Logged

        OK never mind my bad idea, thanks for letting me know.

        Let it Snow Snowman

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          Posted: September 26, 2016, 10:56 am - IP Logged

          When ten numbered balls 0 through 9 are placed into a container and mixed, one of them better show up. And the same thing better happen in the other two or three containers. And apparently tests are conducted before the drawings to ensure that happens.

          Green laughOf course one of them is gonna show up!  The problem is that they're MANIPULATING the possibilities of which one's show up to form the corresponding winning combo. This is just too funny! 

          If any Pick 3 ball is drawn four times in the same chamber, a fifth pre-test is performed. If any Pick 3 ball that was drawn four times in the same chamber is drawn a fifth time in the same chamber, then the ball set – in that chamber only – will not pass the pre-tests.

          Green laughYes!!!! For myself, grwurston, amber123, and many others, the $1 million dollar question is WHY What?No NodBS??? The same ball has been drawn (4) consecutive times in a row in all three positions during multiple official draws across many states but, THEY DIDN'T CONDUCT ANOTHER OFFICIAL DRAW TO VERIFY THAT BALL SETNo Nod

          if someone played 320 or 820 in the pick-3 night drawing, I can understand why they are upset when they see X20 was drawn three times during the test. IMO that didn't prevent either combo from being drawn, but for what it's worth, does have a physiological effect.

           

          So, what DID prevent that same X20 combo from showing up again as the official winning combo after having been drawn (3) times already in the tests? I mean, IT DOES STILL HAVE THE SAME PROBABILITY, RIGHT? Just didn't work out, huh? We need to know, StackHyper! No, it's not a physiological effectNo No. It's a psychological affect...pertaining to the thought process and perception regarding to what the he11 just happened to my money-paying rear pairsCussing Face!

          Stack, I have a few gusts of wind that I'd really like to sell you Sad Cheers

          "So, what DID prevent that same X20 combo from showing up again as the official winning combo after having been drawn (3) times already in the tests?"

          Bet it never occurred to you it's because one of the other 99 two digit combos was drawn. And believe it not that's the same reason none of the other 98 two digit combos were drawn. Using you're logic, it should be impossible for the second X20 to repeat during the test, but according to Texas Lottery protocol, the same digit can be drawn 4 times out of 5 from the same machine and still pass the test. What is your beef about the tests; I forget?

          The good news is you're not one those "don't understand math but still expect to win a MM or PB jackpot" types, but that doesn't change the fact pick-3 odds are still 1 in 1000 and the payoff is $500 to $1.

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            Posted: September 26, 2016, 11:31 am - IP Logged

            LL, each number drawn or each draw itself is independent by its own randomness. Every single draw at any given time is a winning combination. That's obvious. It does not matter if it's pre-test or official as you call it.

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              backwoods ga
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              Posted: September 26, 2016, 11:49 am - IP Logged

              After watching Dallas beat Chicago, followed by a good night's sleep, I've decided I have no more time for this bullcrap!
              What a waste of time and space this thread has been.
              I have a workout, I win now and then, and there is no chance anyone here is going to change my way of doing things.
              Good luck!

              stop commenting then.  Stfu

              my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

                Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                Posted: September 26, 2016, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                "So, what DID prevent that same X20 combo from showing up again as the official winning combo after having been drawn (3) times already in the tests?"

                Bet it never occurred to you it's because one of the other 99 two digit combos was drawn. And believe it not that's the same reason none of the other 98 two digit combos were drawn. Using you're logic, it should be impossible for the second X20 to repeat during the test, but according to Texas Lottery protocol, the same digit can be drawn 4 times out of 5 from the same machine and still pass the test. What is your beef about the tests; I forget?

                The good news is you're not one those "don't understand math but still expect to win a MM or PB jackpot" types, but that doesn't change the fact pick-3 odds are still 1 in 1000 and the payoff is $500 to $1.

                Bet it never occurred to you it's because one of the other 99 two digit combos was drawn. And believe it not that's the same reason none of the other 98 two digit combos were drawn. Using you're logic, it should be impossible for the second X20 to repeat during the test

                Green laughGood morning, and, good grief dude. Really? Did you not realize that you were, in fact, defining probability hereYes Nod?  Take a total of (5) draws including the official and that X20 showed up (3) of those times exactly as X20 in the tests. I'm applying probability enroute to the official results via use of the pre-tests here which I've made clear already. Now you're attempting to twist my words with implying impossibilities. You're pitiful, StackNo Nod.  You know that probability directly contributed to one of those other 99 two-digit combos being drawn as opposed to that X20 being drawn YET AGAIN in one of the last two remaining draws. *In your first sentence, Stack, if you did not apply the law of probability with your 99 remaining combo assessment, then what were you applyingWhat?? X20 had a next to zero chance of being drawn based on what had already happened  three times...which you make very clearLOL. Probability is utilized to add to or subtract from the reasonable possibility of an event/occurrence happening or happening again etc. Use the pre-tests to add to or subtract from.

                 

                And believe it not that's the same reason none of the other 98 two digit combos were drawn.

                Green laughWhat's this reason called again? I forget. 

                 

                the same digit can be drawn 4 times out of 5 from the same machine and still pass the test

                Then, why do they conduct a 5th pre-test in this scenario? If anything can happen and the #6 ball goes against the grain being drawn four times, is this not random at play? Oh, but it's okay if it happens four consecutive times in the same position in official results...with the same ball set.BS Have a look at Florida's trickle down cheat sheet process:

                (f) For PICK 3, five test draws will be conducted. If the same digit is selected three times during the five draws, three additional test draws will be conducted. If the same digit is selected two additional times, an alternative ball set shall be used. 

                All these commissions have all these rules in place to simply draw (1) ping-pong ball from each of three chambers, okay. The sky is gonna fall if a single ball is drawn too many consecutive times based on their verbiage. Well, what about that same ball that ISN'T DRAWN in that same position for a period of timeWhat?. *There are no rules in place for rectifying the non-performing or lagging numbers/combosNo No. They're only concerned with what may happen too often and what's reasonably predictable. This is a case where what they aren't saying is what matters.  I'm gonna leave it right there with you and, of course, you're welcome to respond. Your lottery commission is very proud of you. 

                Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                #lotto-4-a-living

                  amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                  Posted: September 26, 2016, 1:28 pm - IP Logged

                  I don't like playing card games at casinos that change decks ever hour and have to sit there and watch the dealer take their time. The dice are checked before they are put into play and are looked at when the shooter rolls them off the table. The don't test the dice by throwing them a few times with players at the table. They don't test Roulette wheels or the pills while the table is open.

                  That being said, people go to casinos to gamble so your imaginary casino would probably be empty. The thing is if the casino opens at 7:29 PM rain or shine after all their testing is done, the games were played exactly like the games in every other casino, there is no reason to boycott.

                  IMO the real problem and I'm assuming your complaint is the recording and publishing test drawing results especially after the official drawing.

                  So you wouldn't go to the casino. Thank You, but you are okay with the lotteries doing this?

                  That confirms everything, you need help.

                   

                  BTW, I wouldn't go to a restaurant that didn't serve food. This analogy sucked.

                   

                  P.S. Your last statement is proof that you don't read my posts. Show me one place that I wrote I wanted the test results published. I never asked for them, although that would be nice. But they'd have to publish them well in advance of the next drawing.

                    amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                    Posted: September 26, 2016, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

                    amber123,

                    Educate yourself;

                    http://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=291

                    Be sure to read all 15 pages.

                    Educate myself? You can't even answer a simple question. Your comprehension is greatly lacking.

                    I don't give a crap what rules they have in place in those casinos to make sure the machines are working properly, my question AGAIN.............................

                    IF THE CASINOS IMPLEMENTED THE EXACT SAME PROCEDURES SUCH AS 5 PRE TESTS BEFORE EACH DEAL OF THE CARDS, BEFORE EVERY SPIN OF THE WHEEL, BEFORE EACH PULL OF THE HANDLE AS THE LOTTERIES DO, WOULD YOU STILL GO THERE?

                    It's a yes or no answer. Stack47 answered, the round about way, but basically he said no. You can do it, yes or no?

                      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                      Posted: September 26, 2016, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

                      According to the Texas Pick 3 Pre-test page:

                      *When a ball set does not pass the pre-tests, more pre-tests are performed to test the alternate ball set(s). These additional pre-tests are shown in RED.

                      Be my guest to go and visit the website. When you get there, be sure to search every current page (Morning Tests, Day Tests, Evening Tests, and Night Tests)...scroll all the way to the bottom of each page. Please report back with how many additional tests they had to conduct, which would be shown in RED, so we can see just how problematic the machines and ball sets are. The quality assurance on the products they're purchasing to conduct draws is just terrible...all those re-tests.

                      No NodBS Some may say, "Well, that's good that they're not having issues." I say the same darned thing, then continue to question all the testing of perfectly fine equipment... AGAIN. I may not be able to change it but, I know I have a solid argument against it. 

                      "Yeah, we just got married and go to marriage counseling three times a week but, our marriage is great...no problems!!"

                      Thud

                      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                      #lotto-4-a-living

                        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                        Posted: September 26, 2016, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

                        According to the Texas Pick 3 Pre-test page:

                        *When a ball set does not pass the pre-tests, more pre-tests are performed to test the alternate ball set(s). These additional pre-tests are shown in RED.

                        Be my guest to go and visit the website. When you get there, be sure to search every current page (Morning Tests, Day Tests, Evening Tests, and Night Tests)...scroll all the way to the bottom of each page. Please report back with how many additional tests they had to conduct, which would be shown in RED, so we can see just how problematic the machines and ball sets are. The quality assurance on the products they're purchasing to conduct draws is just terrible...all those re-tests.

                        No NodBS Some may say, "Well, that's good that they're not having issues." I say the same darned thing, then continue to question all the testing of perfectly fine equipment... AGAIN. I may not be able to change it but, I know I have a solid argument against it. 

                        "Yeah, we just got married and go to marriage counseling three times a week but, our marriage is great...no problems!!"

                        Thud

                        After further review and research. I don't see many if much at all of the same position digit hits in the official draws for your pick 3 game. Are you saying digits repeat more times in the pre-test results? When it reaches the official draw the digits are different and maybe a chance of a repeat in a different position like any other 3 and 4 game I've seen which is probable. In the official draws just skimming through doing a look over I don't see 4 repeat digits consecutively in the same position almost anywhere in the official. The only thing I can see that can be a negative effect on a player is the fact with pre tests it doesn't keep the ball in one players/many players court for too long. In the first pre test conducted it seems more like the possible winning combination that a player would think will show simply because its all out digits that may be in a players selections usually, the ones that never seem to show. You can guess why that may be a good thing for the lottery. Everything is cause and effect. Although the lottery may do things out of procedure your right about there being an effect. They may or may not know this but it sure can work in their favor or against the player. Best bet is to focus on the official draw results more so. To me from reviewing Texas official results it seems like a fair distribution in the playing field by itself without checking the pre results it looks like any other pick 3 game in most states where 1 digit may repeat and the pair has to be predicted very well. Which is probable and at the same time the same random factor that throws most players off sustaining the lottery business.  I don't know how you analyze your game. I see with 4 draws it can be either 2 ways. A texas player will analyze a morning draw-day draw- eve draw- night draw in that order for the time they choose to play if not all of the draws. Or you may be a player that analyzes yesterday morning- the present morning- yesterday day draw- present day draw- eve and so on... (analyzing up and down instead of straight across) It is whatever works for you. Though I can see stipulations a player would have with the second method making the game seem unrandom. In the last month I see no red. I really don't see any unfair distribution in your pick 3 game to blame it on the pre tests but im looking from the outside. 

                         

                        Well looking again it does look like the first pre test is what a player might look at as what should have been the most possible winning result whether they had it in there possesion or not. Then by the time the official results draw we usually find a repeat digit and a combination that is not the first pre test result where Im guessing most players feel they have lost out with their methods or strategies. If that is the angle you are taking I guess it is worth the argument to somebody witnessing it first hand. Maybe the pre tests should be kept a secret if a player cannot find a way to use them to predict the official results in a wise manner. 

                        Creativity..

                        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                        Million dollar operation 

                        Wink

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          Posted: September 26, 2016, 3:55 pm - IP Logged

                          After further review and research. I don't see many if much at all of the same position digit hits in the official draws for your pick 3 game. Are you saying digits repeat more times in the pre-test results? When it reaches the official draw the digits are different and maybe a chance of a repeat in a different position like any other 3 and 4 game I've seen which is probable. In the official draws just skimming through doing a look over I don't see 4 repeat digits consecutively in the same position almost anywhere in the official. The only thing I can see that can be a negative effect on a player is the fact with pre tests it doesn't keep the ball in one players/many players court for too long. In the first pre test conducted it seems more like the possible winning combination that a player would think will show simply because its all out digits that may be in a players selections usually, the ones that never seem to show. You can guess why that may be a good thing for the lottery. Everything is cause and effect. Although the lottery may do things out of procedure your right about there being an effect. They may or may not know this but it sure can work in their favor or against the player. Best bet is to focus on the official draw results more so. To me from reviewing Texas official results it seems like a fair distribution in the playing field by itself without checking the pre results it looks like any other pick 3 game in most states where 1 digit may repeat and the pair has to be predicted very well. Which is probable and at the same time the same random factor that throws most players off sustaining the lottery business.  I don't know how you analyze your game. I see with 4 draws it can be either 2 ways. A texas player will analyze a morning draw-day draw- eve draw- night draw in that order for the time they choose to play if not all of the draws. Or you may be a player that analyzes yesterday morning- the present morning- yesterday day draw- present day draw- eve and so on... (analyzing up and down instead of straight across) It is whatever works for you. Though I can see stipulations a player would have with the second method making the game seem unrandom. In the last month I see no red. I really don't see any unfair distribution in your pick 3 game to blame it on the pre tests but im looking from the outside. 

                           

                          Well looking again it does look like the first pre test is what a player might look at as what should have been the most possible winning result whether they had it in there possesion or not. Then by the time the official results draw we usually find a repeat digit and a combination that is not the first pre test result where Im guessing most players feel they have lost out with their methods or strategies. If that is the angle you are taking I guess it is worth the argument to somebody witnessing it first hand. Maybe the pre tests should be kept a secret if a player cannot find a way to use them to predict the official results in a wise manner. 

                          Fair enough, I'm actually done with it. Time to move on and just observe for a while like I was before becoming entangled in all this. Happy picks!

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

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                            Posted: September 26, 2016, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

                            They change the ball sets and the machines because they consider the event to be a true-biased event. Therefore, if the word bias comes into play with i.e. the lottery then that means to them that the machine is faulty, or if the balls could be blamed they would be "loaded" etc. That's the reason. Coincidences do happen in random. There is uncertainty in random. I don't believe they do those pre-tests for any other reason.

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                              Posted: September 26, 2016, 5:09 pm - IP Logged

                              Educate myself? You can't even answer a simple question. Your comprehension is greatly lacking.

                              I don't give a crap what rules they have in place in those casinos to make sure the machines are working properly, my question AGAIN.............................

                              IF THE CASINOS IMPLEMENTED THE EXACT SAME PROCEDURES SUCH AS 5 PRE TESTS BEFORE EACH DEAL OF THE CARDS, BEFORE EVERY SPIN OF THE WHEEL, BEFORE EACH PULL OF THE HANDLE AS THE LOTTERIES DO, WOULD YOU STILL GO THERE?

                              It's a yes or no answer. Stack47 answered, the round about way, but basically he said no. You can do it, yes or no?

                              You don't realize the answer was in the link from the Gaming Board, all you did was prove you didn't read it.

                              STICK TO WHAT YOU KNOW, WHATEVER THAT IS.

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                                 
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