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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 16 days ago by Soledad.

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backwoods ga
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Posted: September 28, 2016, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

of all the members    i only know 2 thats winning daily.    Do most of youll play for fun and games.  Giggles and laughs.    Most of you dont even think the game can be won.   Why are yous even on lotterypost.   Go find another forum to be negative on.   Maybe Chuck E Cheeses forum.      Yall couldnt hit a pick 3. If the state had 975 to 1 odds

my name Lil Darryl   you got some Milk

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: September 28, 2016, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

    You don't have to be ashamed of being wrong. Everyone here saw that you admit you wouldn't got to a casino with those stipulations,  but it's ok with you for the lottery, so it's ok, you learned your lesson.

    BYE!

    I thought you were "done".

    Everyone here saw where I asked "When are you finally going to understand that casinos DO NOT "implement the same rules as lotteries"?" There is no casino with "those stipulations" so it's impossible me or anyone else to "got" to such a casino.

    "BYE!"

    LOL  ROFL Green laugh

      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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      Posted: September 28, 2016, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

      I thought you were "done".

      Everyone here saw where I asked "When are you finally going to understand that casinos DO NOT "implement the same rules as lotteries"?" There is no casino with "those stipulations" so it's impossible me or anyone else to "got" to such a casino.

      "BYE!"

      LOL  ROFL Green laugh

      There is no casino with "those stipulations" so it's impossible me or anyone else to "got" to such a casino.

       

      That's right, they wouldn't dare make those stipulations because the same day they do, the doors would be closed forever. 

       

      DUH !

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        New York, NY
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        Posted: September 28, 2016, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

        of all the members    i only know 2 thats winning daily.    Do most of youll play for fun and games.  Giggles and laughs.    Most of you dont even think the game can be won.   Why are yous even on lotterypost.   Go find another forum to be negative on.   Maybe Chuck E Cheeses forum.      Yall couldnt hit a pick 3. If the state had 975 to 1 odds

        Oh sh** omg omg oh shhhi** Green laughoh boy here I go

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          NY
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          Posted: September 28, 2016, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

          "So which is it?"

          I'll try to explain the issues that deal with probability. If you can't understand simple English you'll have to look for help somewhere else.

          "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

          Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

           

          "Keep asking me stupid questions"

          The only reason you think they're stupid is because they're either questions you're unable to answer, or because the answers don't agree with your delusions.

          "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

          Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

           

          "The very idea that they're claiming a random process while clearly taking preventive measures which disrupt 'true randomness' is the concern for us. "

          The idea may bother you, but it's based on a delusion. The lotteries want to keep things random, because that's in their own best interests.

          "As another member has accurately identified, they're real goal is too minimize what they pay out"

          The goal of the lotteries is to rely on randomness so that probability will do what it does.

           

          "When you play with the machine before the official draw, things change."

          What things change, and how do they change?  We get that if the results of test drawing aren't published it means that some of you don't have all of the (useless) data, but what changes that actually affects the results of the official drawing?

           

          "I'm still unable to process how some of these folks are failing to see how tampering with the balls affects things which are unseen yet expected. The balls are numbered and are naturally obligated to do certain things"

          Are you unable to process how we fail to see unicorns, too? The balls aren't obligated to do anything except obey the laws of physics. They roll or fall downhill due to gravity, they accelerate when they're hit by something, and they're affected by friction. And of course the lottery doesn't tamper with the balls.

           

          "You don't seem to understand my point."

          Nobody understands your "points" Some people agree with them, and the rest of us recognize them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. It's a lot like hearing somebody who's off their meds  talking to themselves on the sidewalk. We recognize all of the words (well, we recognize the real words), but that doesn't mean they make any sense the way they're strung together or that they're based in reality.

           

          "I don't get anything you're saying."

          That's one of the problems with listening to people with delusions about how  random probability works. They come up with nonsensical ideas that only make sense to them.

          "This analogy sucked."

          It was probably intended to be as stupid as your question about casinos conducting tests before each individual game. A better analogy would have been to ask if you'd go to a restaurant that cooked what you ordered 4 or 5 times before cooking the one they sent out to you. It's a better analogy because cooking a bunch of test orders first would waste a bunch of time without having any other effect on the food that was cooked and served to you, just as all the pre-testing, whether they're done by the lottery or a casino don't change the results of the game.

           

          "Now I'm done."

          Or not.

            amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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            Posted: September 29, 2016, 12:03 am - IP Logged

            "So which is it?"

            I'll try to explain the issues that deal with probability. If you can't understand simple English you'll have to look for help somewhere else.

            "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

            Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

             

            "Keep asking me stupid questions"

            The only reason you think they're stupid is because they're either questions you're unable to answer, or because the answers don't agree with your delusions.

            "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

            Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

             

            "The very idea that they're claiming a random process while clearly taking preventive measures which disrupt 'true randomness' is the concern for us. "

            The idea may bother you, but it's based on a delusion. The lotteries want to keep things random, because that's in their own best interests.

            "As another member has accurately identified, they're real goal is too minimize what they pay out"

            The goal of the lotteries is to rely on randomness so that probability will do what it does.

             

            "When you play with the machine before the official draw, things change."

            What things change, and how do they change?  We get that if the results of test drawing aren't published it means that some of you don't have all of the (useless) data, but what changes that actually affects the results of the official drawing?

             

            "I'm still unable to process how some of these folks are failing to see how tampering with the balls affects things which are unseen yet expected. The balls are numbered and are naturally obligated to do certain things"

            Are you unable to process how we fail to see unicorns, too? The balls aren't obligated to do anything except obey the laws of physics. They roll or fall downhill due to gravity, they accelerate when they're hit by something, and they're affected by friction. And of course the lottery doesn't tamper with the balls.

             

            "You don't seem to understand my point."

            Nobody understands your "points" Some people agree with them, and the rest of us recognize them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. It's a lot like hearing somebody who's off their meds  talking to themselves on the sidewalk. We recognize all of the words (well, we recognize the real words), but that doesn't mean they make any sense the way they're strung together or that they're based in reality.

             

            "I don't get anything you're saying."

            That's one of the problems with listening to people with delusions about how  random probability works. They come up with nonsensical ideas that only make sense to them.

            "This analogy sucked."

            It was probably intended to be as stupid as your question about casinos conducting tests before each individual game. A better analogy would have been to ask if you'd go to a restaurant that cooked what you ordered 4 or 5 times before cooking the one they sent out to you. It's a better analogy because cooking a bunch of test orders first would waste a bunch of time without having any other effect on the food that was cooked and served to you, just as all the pre-testing, whether they're done by the lottery or a casino don't change the results of the game.

             

            "Now I'm done."

            Or not.

            Oh boy, the Jelly factory let the slaves out on a break.

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              Kentucky
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              February 14, 2006
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              Posted: September 29, 2016, 12:06 am - IP Logged

              "So which is it?"

              I'll try to explain the issues that deal with probability. If you can't understand simple English you'll have to look for help somewhere else.

              "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

              Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

               

              "Keep asking me stupid questions"

              The only reason you think they're stupid is because they're either questions you're unable to answer, or because the answers don't agree with your delusions.

              "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

              Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

               

              "The very idea that they're claiming a random process while clearly taking preventive measures which disrupt 'true randomness' is the concern for us. "

              The idea may bother you, but it's based on a delusion. The lotteries want to keep things random, because that's in their own best interests.

              "As another member has accurately identified, they're real goal is too minimize what they pay out"

              The goal of the lotteries is to rely on randomness so that probability will do what it does.

               

              "When you play with the machine before the official draw, things change."

              What things change, and how do they change?  We get that if the results of test drawing aren't published it means that some of you don't have all of the (useless) data, but what changes that actually affects the results of the official drawing?

               

              "I'm still unable to process how some of these folks are failing to see how tampering with the balls affects things which are unseen yet expected. The balls are numbered and are naturally obligated to do certain things"

              Are you unable to process how we fail to see unicorns, too? The balls aren't obligated to do anything except obey the laws of physics. They roll or fall downhill due to gravity, they accelerate when they're hit by something, and they're affected by friction. And of course the lottery doesn't tamper with the balls.

               

              "You don't seem to understand my point."

              Nobody understands your "points" Some people agree with them, and the rest of us recognize them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. It's a lot like hearing somebody who's off their meds  talking to themselves on the sidewalk. We recognize all of the words (well, we recognize the real words), but that doesn't mean they make any sense the way they're strung together or that they're based in reality.

               

              "I don't get anything you're saying."

              That's one of the problems with listening to people with delusions about how  random probability works. They come up with nonsensical ideas that only make sense to them.

              "This analogy sucked."

              It was probably intended to be as stupid as your question about casinos conducting tests before each individual game. A better analogy would have been to ask if you'd go to a restaurant that cooked what you ordered 4 or 5 times before cooking the one they sent out to you. It's a better analogy because cooking a bunch of test orders first would waste a bunch of time without having any other effect on the food that was cooked and served to you, just as all the pre-testing, whether they're done by the lottery or a casino don't change the results of the game.

               

              "Now I'm done."

              Or not.

              Well said!

                amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                Posted: September 29, 2016, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                The last thing I want to read is another barrage of ignorant interpretation, and major hypocritical nonsense regurgitated by his twin...no thanks Jelly man.

                  grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                  Winning makes me smile.
                  bel air maryland
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                  Posted: September 29, 2016, 1:12 am - IP Logged

                  "So which is it?"

                  I'll try to explain the issues that deal with probability. If you can't understand simple English you'll have to look for help somewhere else.

                  "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

                  Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

                   

                  "Keep asking me stupid questions"

                  The only reason you think they're stupid is because they're either questions you're unable to answer, or because the answers don't agree with your delusions.

                  "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

                  Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

                   

                  "The very idea that they're claiming a random process while clearly taking preventive measures which disrupt 'true randomness' is the concern for us. "

                  The idea may bother you, but it's based on a delusion. The lotteries want to keep things random, because that's in their own best interests.

                  "As another member has accurately identified, they're real goal is too minimize what they pay out"

                  The goal of the lotteries is to rely on randomness so that probability will do what it does.

                   

                  "When you play with the machine before the official draw, things change."

                  What things change, and how do they change?  We get that if the results of test drawing aren't published it means that some of you don't have all of the (useless) data, but what changes that actually affects the results of the official drawing?

                   

                  "I'm still unable to process how some of these folks are failing to see how tampering with the balls affects things which are unseen yet expected. The balls are numbered and are naturally obligated to do certain things"

                  Are you unable to process how we fail to see unicorns, too? The balls aren't obligated to do anything except obey the laws of physics. They roll or fall downhill due to gravity, they accelerate when they're hit by something, and they're affected by friction. And of course the lottery doesn't tamper with the balls.

                   

                  "You don't seem to understand my point."

                  Nobody understands your "points" Some people agree with them, and the rest of us recognize them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. It's a lot like hearing somebody who's off their meds  talking to themselves on the sidewalk. We recognize all of the words (well, we recognize the real words), but that doesn't mean they make any sense the way they're strung together or that they're based in reality.

                   

                  "I don't get anything you're saying."

                  That's one of the problems with listening to people with delusions about how  random probability works. They come up with nonsensical ideas that only make sense to them.

                  "This analogy sucked."

                  It was probably intended to be as stupid as your question about casinos conducting tests before each individual game. A better analogy would have been to ask if you'd go to a restaurant that cooked what you ordered 4 or 5 times before cooking the one they sent out to you. It's a better analogy because cooking a bunch of test orders first would waste a bunch of time without having any other effect on the food that was cooked and served to you, just as all the pre-testing, whether they're done by the lottery or a casino don't change the results of the game.

                   

                  "Now I'm done."

                  Or not.

                  "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

                  Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

                   

                  The machines are picked randomly just like the numbers in the official draws. Right?  So there is no reason it couldn't happen just like this did...

                  Well, it wasn't very "probable" that the same number, (9) would hit 8 draws in a row and 11 days out of 12. (20 days out of 31 for the month btw.)  But it did. So explain that!!! Show the math. It happened Aug. 18 thru Aug. 29, 2016 Maryland Midday Pick 4. Just in case you want to it see for yourself.

                  It wouldn't have gone past 4 or 5 draws in the pre-test because they would have said, "Oops, there's something wrong with the balls. We have to change them."  This is BSAll the balls are weighed and measured and recorded before and after each drawing. If everything is exactly the same today that it was yesterday, then how could there be something wrong with the balls?

                  But that's different from the official draws where anything can happen and it's ALL considered random. But it's NOT considered random in the pre-test. Why not?  Why do they have to change the balls whenever they see something that doesn't "look right" or they don't like. Things don't "look right" all the time in the official draws. (See the above example.) But because it's the "official draws," it's all good. This why people are against pre-tests. They are trying to take away or alter the the natural random process.

                  "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                  The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                  Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                    CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                    ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                    United States
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                    Posted: September 29, 2016, 5:03 am - IP Logged

                    "How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.?"

                    Because I actually understand probability and can do the math.

                     

                    The machines are picked randomly just like the numbers in the official draws. Right?  So there is no reason it couldn't happen just like this did...

                    Well, it wasn't very "probable" that the same number, (9) would hit 8 draws in a row and 11 days out of 12. (20 days out of 31 for the month btw.)  But it did. So explain that!!! Show the math. It happened Aug. 18 thru Aug. 29, 2016 Maryland Midday Pick 4. Just in case you want to it see for yourself.

                    It wouldn't have gone past 4 or 5 draws in the pre-test because they would have said, "Oops, there's something wrong with the balls. We have to change them."  This is BSAll the balls are weighed and measured and recorded before and after each drawing. If everything is exactly the same today that it was yesterday, then how could there be something wrong with the balls?

                    But that's different from the official draws where anything can happen and it's ALL considered random. But it's NOT considered random in the pre-test. Why not?  Why do they have to change the balls whenever they see something that doesn't "look right" or they don't like. Things don't "look right" all the time in the official draws. (See the above example.) But because it's the "official draws," it's all good. This why people are against pre-tests. They are trying to take away or alter the the natural random process.

                    I hope KY and Stack reply to this.

                    This is a response to Amber from KY.

                    "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

                    Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

                    This question is for both of you. 

                    Would you bet on the next flip and which would you bet H/T?

                    If you don't believe the pre-draws interrupt Random, why are they doing them. Don't say testing, unless you tell me what they are testing for. Also explain why the pre-tests were not conducted prior to 2008? Did they not test the machines?

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                      New York, NY
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                      Posted: September 29, 2016, 6:22 am - IP Logged

                      The purpose of this comment is to add insight into why people make errors in judgement concerning random events. 

                      People that make the tendency of computing 6 consecutive heads in a coin toss, are not comparing that probability to the probability of every other sequence. Most randomized sequences do not have an easily recognizable pattern, that only reinforces our belief that an all heads sequence is less likely. Yet any one specific arbitrary sequence has exactly the same chance of occurring as any other. So this gives an illusion of what random looks like, but reality dictates that each result has the same chance of occurring as any other.

                      People judge coin flips with 6 heads in a row as less random than 3 heads and 3 tails, but the probability of obtaining these sequences is the same. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 0.015625. This is the probability of getting a specific sequence as opposed to getting a second specific sequence.

                      I would like to thank grwurston for putting the definition of random up. Based on this definition, the appearance of 6 heads in a row may apppear to have a pattern, but as I am sure grwurston knows, probability theory is only concerned with how the events in a sequence are produced. Not how they appear after the fact.

                      The human mind has a habit of recalling big events while ignoring smaller events. The smaller less recalled events tend to give the bigger events more context and help to evaluate how likely or unlikely the perceived pattern really is. This is called "selective-reporting".

                      Our minds are predisposed to find patterns. Statistics are often reported in ways such as "1 out of 10" which leads to confusion. These types of statements may lead to the impression that events that are reported occur in a regular manner.

                      Suppose a coin is tossed 100 times and it lands on heads 80 times. Then it is tossed another 100 times. The net outcome is more likely to move closer to the 50% than to stay at the 80%. This is called the regression to the mean. However, nothing forces it to move closer to the 50%, regression to the mean while likely does not have to occur. 

                      These are just some points on why gamblers sometimes make mistakes with what they see.

                        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                        Posted: September 29, 2016, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

                        I hope KY and Stack reply to this.

                        This is a response to Amber from KY.

                        "Only you and many others would actually believe it's still 50/50 after let's say about 10 flips."

                        Well, those "many others" are the people who aren't morons, so at least I'm in good company. Of course we "believe" that because it's a fact that's supported by millions and millions of actual tests, rather than a delusion we wallow in simply because we're morons who are too stupid to pay attention to the  vast and incontrovertible evidence. FWIW, the tests are so easy that you could do your own.

                        This question is for both of you. 

                        Would you bet on the next flip and which would you bet H/T?

                        If you don't believe the pre-draws interrupt Random, why are they doing them. Don't say testing, unless you tell me what they are testing for. Also explain why the pre-tests were not conducted prior to 2008? Did they not test the machines?

                        LOL Good luck with that, CARBOB and grwurston! I'm sure you've clearly noticed where you, myself, grwurston, and amber123 are all speaking the same basic languageYes Nod. KY FLOYD, Stack47, and Soledad only seem to take interest, though, in countering amber123 and meWhat?FrownSad. They're afraid to take any of yours or grwurston's commentary and critique it with the same intensity as they do mine...yet it's the same premiseYes Nod. What does this tell you? It tells me that it's more personal than anything. How is it possible to avoid countering person's A's assessment to go after person B's when they're both saying the same thing? Go back and look at how many times they've all had to explain to both of you, in detail, WHY YOU'RE ALL DEAD WRONG but chose not to. It's actually pretty Green laughGreen laugh watching them do this. You and grwurston are still posing the $1M question to the geniuses and all they can do is PROMOTE the lotteries' explanation(s) of making sure the machines and balls are working properlyGreen laughBS . Then, once again, lotteries are trying to 'create random' which cannot be done because any process used in associating a corresponding outcome completely violates random as defined. Smash

                        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                        #lotto-4-a-living

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                          Posted: September 29, 2016, 2:20 pm - IP Logged

                          It's not personal. This is the first time I ever stayed on a topic for more than 2 comments in my entire existence here on LP. I've also never been to a casino or played roulette for that matter. And I've heard a lot of people talk about how it's not fair, but I have not heard a lot of people talk about how it is. Sorry if you take it that way. But it's definitely not. I didn't start with name calling ok. And I only perhaps took it to a personal level once after my name was put in quotation marks. So other than that, my opinion is that there is more to do with probability than just pre-testing. A debate as this has been called should have more than one side, no? But this has turned into a debate on pre-testing as opposed to a discussion on probability. And for all the valid points that I have made , and trust me these points are based on study and facts, not once have you even agreed with anything I have said.

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                            Posted: September 29, 2016, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

                            It's not personal. This is the first time I ever stayed on a topic for more than 2 comments in my entire existence here on LP. I've also never been to a casino or played roulette for that matter. And I've heard a lot of people talk about how it's not fair, but I have not heard a lot of people talk about how it is. Sorry if you take it that way. But it's definitely not. I didn't start with name calling ok. And I only perhaps took it to a personal level once after my name was put in quotation marks. So other than that, my opinion is that there is more to do with probability than just pre-testing. A debate as this has been called should have more than one side, no? But this has turned into a debate on pre-testing as opposed to a discussion on probability. And for all the valid points that I have made , and trust me these points are based on study and facts, not once have you even agreed with anything I have said.

                            Title asks, "Do you believe every combination has the same probability?". I think we naysayers say it can't happen because of pre-draws! I don't believe Loser and Amber are taking it personal. These pre-test have not been happening since the lottery started. The pre-tests rules were just recently entered on the website. If they have 3 or 4 consecutive numbers that are the same in pre-tests, they think something is wrong, then why don't they think something is wrong, when it happens in official draws? No way can you say they are conducting random draws.

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                              Posted: September 29, 2016, 5:10 pm - IP Logged

                              Title asks, "Do you believe every combination has the same probability?". I think we naysayers say it can't happen because of pre-draws! I don't believe Loser and Amber are taking it personal. These pre-test have not been happening since the lottery started. The pre-tests rules were just recently entered on the website. If they have 3 or 4 consecutive numbers that are the same in pre-tests, they think something is wrong, then why don't they think something is wrong, when it happens in official draws? No way can you say they are conducting random draws.

                              I don't know. Of course both sides do have an opinion that's based on ideal situations. This is a rather interesting discussion or debate though. I wish LotteryBraker was still around to jump in, lol. No of course it's not personal. I just wanted to clear that up.

                                 
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