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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 15 days ago by Soledad.

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MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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Posted: October 3, 2016, 3:20 am - IP Logged

"My theory is being able to accurately predict a future possibility whether it be for the next draw or next few draws is the best hunch or insight you'll get for the game.."

I play a little 4-minute Keno and usually a 4-spot because the over-all chances of winning are 26%. The probability of any 4-spot is once in every 326 games and with 15 drawings that's less than once every two days. So the question isn't "if" but "when". Timing is much longer with pick-3 games and it may take 3 years or more for a specific three digit number to be drawn. Or it could be in the next drawing.

Three years ago I "predicted" 20 pick-3 lines (straight/box) and had at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction. There was no magical picks, no dreams, no due, over due or frequent picks; it was all mathematical based on the fact a digit 0 through 9 will drawn in each digit position using a simple 2if3 wheel. Regardless of a hit in every jurisdiction, real play would result in a loss though slightly better than the 50% payoff.

If each digit in each digit position has the same chance of being drawn in the official drawing, does it matter what the lottery people do with the equipment before and after?

Timing is much longer with pick-3 games and it may take 3 years or more for a specific three digit number to be drawn. Or it could be in the next drawing.

Interesting you say this. Is it because 3 digits from 9 have less places to be drawn being that the game has less positions for the same digits 0-9. Making the game a little more tricky using less positions but the same amount of digits IMO. I've always felt pick 3 and pick 4 were similar but it's definitely two totally different ideas. I guess it comes down to the players preference. It's almost amazing that 1;1,00 odds vs 1;10,000 how one doesn't seem to make the game any easier than the other. Definitely two different thought processes. In my experience tracking pick 3 from a far I played one number a few draws starting last year. Still hasn't come straight. 3-6-4. This ties into the fact numbers have the same probability but timing is the biggest factor in combinations being drawn. 

If each digit in each digit position has the same chance of being drawn in the official drawing, does it matter what the lottery people do with the equipment before and after?

Nope. What the officials do with the equipment has little to no bearing on what defines the game. This may be a matter of how a player tracks the game and combinations drawn. Official draws are what matter in winning the game therefore I would take my eye off the pre tests. Just because they've been made public to players in certain states does not mean they have a bearing on winning the game itself. Yes it must be psychological because there are many people who have no idea about pre tests in there state and only witness and focus there attention on winning draw results from draw to draw. 

Three years ago I "predicted" 20 pick-3 lines (straight/box) and had at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction. There was no magical picks, no dreams, no due, over due or frequent picks; it was all mathematical based on the fact a digit 0 through 9 will drawn in each digit position using a simple 2if3 wheel. Regardless of a hit in every jurisdiction, real play would result in a loss though slightly better than the 50% payoff.

That is great and all have been able to predict winning results in several states which goes to show numbers are numbers. They do come out. The only thing guaranteed is integers will be draw for your game and they will vary from draw to draw. I guess we've learned that timing and focus on the right aspects of the game are key.

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation 

Wink

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: October 3, 2016, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

    Timing is much longer with pick-3 games and it may take 3 years or more for a specific three digit number to be drawn. Or it could be in the next drawing.

    Interesting you say this. Is it because 3 digits from 9 have less places to be drawn being that the game has less positions for the same digits 0-9. Making the game a little more tricky using less positions but the same amount of digits IMO. I've always felt pick 3 and pick 4 were similar but it's definitely two totally different ideas. I guess it comes down to the players preference. It's almost amazing that 1;1,00 odds vs 1;10,000 how one doesn't seem to make the game any easier than the other. Definitely two different thought processes. In my experience tracking pick 3 from a far I played one number a few draws starting last year. Still hasn't come straight. 3-6-4. This ties into the fact numbers have the same probability but timing is the biggest factor in combinations being drawn. 

    If each digit in each digit position has the same chance of being drawn in the official drawing, does it matter what the lottery people do with the equipment before and after?

    Nope. What the officials do with the equipment has little to no bearing on what defines the game. This may be a matter of how a player tracks the game and combinations drawn. Official draws are what matter in winning the game therefore I would take my eye off the pre tests. Just because they've been made public to players in certain states does not mean they have a bearing on winning the game itself. Yes it must be psychological because there are many people who have no idea about pre tests in there state and only witness and focus there attention on winning draw results from draw to draw. 

    Three years ago I "predicted" 20 pick-3 lines (straight/box) and had at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction. There was no magical picks, no dreams, no due, over due or frequent picks; it was all mathematical based on the fact a digit 0 through 9 will drawn in each digit position using a simple 2if3 wheel. Regardless of a hit in every jurisdiction, real play would result in a loss though slightly better than the 50% payoff.

    That is great and all have been able to predict winning results in several states which goes to show numbers are numbers. They do come out. The only thing guaranteed is integers will be draw for your game and they will vary from draw to draw. I guess we've learned that timing and focus on the right aspects of the game are key.

    "Is it because 3 digits from 9 have less places to be drawn being that the game has less positions for the same digits 0-9."

    When we see a live ball drawing we see three containers each with ten numbered balls 0 - 9 so how many pick-3 combos are drawn over 1000 drawings depends on how many times each digit is drawn. If the digit "4" in the first digit position is drawn 90 times, at the most only 90 of the 100 possible outcomes can be drawn.

    It looks like some here don't understand how to correctly apply probability and possibly why they believe tests have a direct effect on official drawings. Most of the live ball drawings show all ten numbered balls and then show them dropping into a container so unless there are flaws in one or more of the numbered balls, each of numbered balls have an equal chance of being drawn. The same one in ten chance exists in the next drawing and in every drawing after that. The chances of a digit repeating are one in ten and when a digit repeats, the chances are still one in ten of being drawn in three straight drawings.

    "That is great and all have been able to predict winning results in several states which goes to show numbers are numbers."

    Those 20 lines were "good in every state for one month" just like the claim some of the 50 line predictor make. The probability for 10 lines with a 2if3 guarantee is 1 in 22 drawings.

      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
      Texas
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      Posted: October 3, 2016, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

      Texas instituted the rules for pre-tests and equipment testing to prevent a "Triple Six Fix" as happened in Pennsylvania. I imagine publishing of those pre-tests have to do with the state's Open Records Law. Remember the Pennsylvania fix occurred years before Texas Lottery began.

      I would think the Tennessee Lottery would have caught their software failure much quicker (preventing doubles and triples to be drawn) had they kept records or published pre-tests.

      Whether a state has anything to hide or not, consider it the government stance, "The people do not need to know that. People will start asking questions we can't answer (without going into details we don't want to discuss)." Sometimes it's because the people giving the answers do not know what, how and why things work. Definitely some things are kept from the public. That's the way the government works to "protect us." Consider the Tennessee Lottery software fiasco preventing doubles and triples from being drawn. How much sooner might that have been caught had they recorded or published pre-test drawings? (Yeah, I get the big failure was inadequate software testing but recording the pre-test, even as a secondary security measure, would have proved abnormal results).

      Do the pre-test affect the draws? That appears to be a matter of opinion. When Texas had one P3 game, the night draw, it seemed to be much simpler. Using pre-tests, or not using pre-tests, had little to no effect. You were only accounting for 5 draws (with pre-test). From time to time, one of your picks ends up in a pre-test. You don't think much of it. 

      Now with 4 draws per day that has become 16 pre-tests per day, plus 4 live draws per day, or 20 draws total per day. What is that? 120 new draws a week?

      Certainly it's confusing adding 3 months of drawings each week to your data base and worse seeing many of your picks come out in the pre-tests.

      But logically, (probability-wise) more of your picks have better chance of appearing in the pre-tests since there is 5 times as many (96 per week) versus the live draws (24 per week).

      I wouldn't think such a thing is a well thought out conspiracy, planned and executed by lottery officials, as much as a realization that the more draws they add the more confusing the game becomes to those tracking every number drawn.

       

      G

      You were only accounting for 5 draws (with pre-test). From time to time, one of your picks ends up in a pre-test. You don't think much of it. 

      Now with 4 draws per day that has become 16 pre-tests per day, plus 4 live draws per day, or 20 draws total per day. What is that? 120 new draws a week?

      Certainly it's confusing adding 3 months of drawings each week to your data base and worse seeing many of your picks come out in the pre-tests.

      But logically, (probability-wise) more of your picks have better chance of appearing in the pre-tests since there is 5 times as many (96 per week) versus the live draws (24 per week).

      I wouldn't think such a thing is a well thought out conspiracy, planned and executed by lottery officials, as much as a realization that the more draws they add the more confusing the game becomes to those tracking every number drawn.

      Thanks for posting one of the most intelligent and substantively, number-based replies regarding pre-testsSmash. This is what some of us have been proposing this entire time. It must be absolutely understood that those draws still happened...and those were combos/numbers drawn which either reduces or adds to probability overall. The idea that they are pre-tests cannot be discounted simply because they're tied to 'trial runs', and, tearing up the darned machines as you've outlined here. Simply put the number of draws, no matter what the title says they are, will affect the probability and odds of their end product.

      Very well stated. 

      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

      #lotto-4-a-living

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: October 3, 2016, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

        "You and your buddies here on LP are the REAL morons."

        Apparently Amber believes by making childish insults, people will think they are very intelligent and anything they say is fact. Can someone please give a good reason why anyone should discuss anything with Amber?

        Trust me, I already tried having an intelligence discussion with you a long time ago. What I found out is the word "intelligence" and you have no business being in the same sentence.

          amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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          Posted: October 3, 2016, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

          Great to see you posting again, Gary!!!

          IMO the pre-test create more of a psychological effect; who wants to see the number they played drawn in a test, but with 16 unofficial drawings per day, it's very likely. That still doesn't answer what the conspiracy people believe, "do the tests really prevent a three digit combo from being drawn?".

          do the tests really prevent a three digit combo from being drawn?".

          This is the reason I feel you need mental help. NO ONE has ever said pre tests prevent a 3 digit combos from being drawn.

          You have some really serious comprehension issues, I mean serious.

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            New York, NY
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            Posted: October 3, 2016, 8:30 pm - IP Logged

            It still doesn't matter lol. You're acting like you played all those numbers that came up in the pre-tests. You're acting like you can understand random. Sorry that hasn't been understood yet. Although they're trying to at least now. Definitions are just that definitions. You take them for what they're worth. Others well they prove boundaries are meant to be broken. You're speaking in hypothetical terms and you always have been. No offense.

            And no offense further as well, but the comments I have made have made perfect sense. While some have said I am "discombulated". I don't think so. It's the comments that I have made that you don't understand. While you have only been saying one thing over and over again with no proof. Good luck

              TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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              Posted: October 3, 2016, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

              Timing is everything! I wasn't planning on going out today, but had to make a trip to the bank. While out I played four sets of numbers in NY Pick4. One of those sets was the numbers from my old license plate. Tonight (Mon 10-3-16) the NYS Lottery Win4 number was 5137. I had 1357 box 50 cents for a $100 win. I have no system....just good timing.

              The Meatman

              “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

              Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                Posted: October 3, 2016, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                Timing is everything! I wasn't planning on going out today, but had to make a trip to the bank. While out I played four sets of numbers in NY Pick4. One of those sets was the numbers from my old license plate. Tonight (Mon 10-3-16) the NYS Lottery Win4 number was 5137. I had 1357 box 50 cents for a $100 win. I have no system....just good timing.

                Congrats !   I know what you mean. I missed out on an easy 50 bucks win with 51 in Florida. Long story short, I played 51 after seeing a revelation in a recent lucid dream, but stopped playing on the fourth night because I didn't win. The 5th day midday winner was 15, so I thought, what are the odds that 51 would show in the eve on the same day(night). Guess what happened, on the fifth night 51 was drawn. I was fuming, I should know better is the worst part...lol

                  TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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                  Posted: October 3, 2016, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

                  Congrats !   I know what you mean. I missed out on an easy 50 bucks win with 51 in Florida. Long story short, I played 51 after seeing a revelation in a recent lucid dream, but stopped playing on the fourth night because I didn't win. The 5th day midday winner was 15, so I thought, what are the odds that 51 would show in the eve on the same day(night). Guess what happened, on the fifth night 51 was drawn. I was fuming, I should know better is the worst part...lol

                  Thank you....and better luck next time.

                  I think your computer has a bug LOL

                  The Meatman

                  “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                  Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                    amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                    Posted: October 3, 2016, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

                    Thank you....and better luck next time.

                    I think your computer has a bug LOL

                    Correct me If I'm wrong, LP has a strict rule about Steroids being used on any animals or insects. That Ant looks like a wrestler. Big Grin Angel

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                      New York, NY
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                      Posted: October 3, 2016, 9:13 pm - IP Logged

                      grwurston,

                      with all due respect. this is my attempt to answer this as best I can. I have at least said a few things about this. 

                      Firstly the Lottery has everything to do with statistics. Why they do this that you said is not an easy question to answer. Not even by statisticians. I recall that you laid out the definition of random on this thread. And it is true they call these samples or draws random. However, it really is not true that a random draw that is chosen is random is it? No it is not. This is because the definition of random in the dictionary is misleading you when it comes to the word. Are all random samples chosen "without a method of conscious decision". No they are not. There are many different ways to obtain a "random" sample. I will define two of them and perhaps it may allow you to think further on this.

                      A Simple Random Sample: A set of n objects in a population of N objects where all possible samples are equally likely to happen.

                      A Random sample: While similar to a simple random sample, they are different. Each object in the sample does not necessarily have an equal chance of being chosen.

                      There are times where estimates can be improved by varying the probabilities with which units are sampled. If the selection probabilities are unequal, the sample mean is not unbiased for the population mean and sample total is not unbiased for population total.

                      The Lottery and its commission do all of this pre-testing and periodic measurements etc (no I will not say "balls" lol) to ensure "statistical randomness". That really is the bottom line as to why they do these things. I hope this at least offers some insight. It's late I'm tired

                      The Lottery is a state run heavily regulated institution. They deal with laws. Laws. They cannot make claims and not back them up. I'm sorry no matter what you're personal opinion is, the lottery has to be able to prove that what they say and claim is true. They don't make any claims without heavily regulating them and processing them as well. This is not online free stuff where you can just get away with anything. This is State, in the United States. What Litigious is a new word or something? Look up the facts. And yes it is annoying, but this is the U.S. what in the word litigious is not annoying? But it still has to be proven.

                        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                        Posted: October 3, 2016, 9:53 pm - IP Logged

                        Timing is everything! I wasn't planning on going out today, but had to make a trip to the bank. While out I played four sets of numbers in NY Pick4. One of those sets was the numbers from my old license plate. Tonight (Mon 10-3-16) the NYS Lottery Win4 number was 5137. I had 1357 box 50 cents for a $100 win. I have no system....just good timing.

                        Yup great timing I also played 4 combos sum 16 and 17 with 5434 and 5345 (heavy).. I predicted sum 16 for tonite being as the sums seem to run back to back in short time spans IMO the last sum 16 I caught on 9/26 was 4921 with good timing.. completely backwards though.. last time it showed was in July.. played it off and on still caught it due to good tracking I'd say.. I was going to run the same combo back tonite but disagreed on it.. I was right.. 5137.. I agreed on 3 odd 1 even 12-way for the nite for good balance turned out to be all odd 24-way.. Also had 9453.. Congrats on your box win definitely good timing.. many more to you

                        Creativity..

                        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                        Million dollar operation 

                        Wink

                          MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                          Ny
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                          Posted: October 3, 2016, 9:56 pm - IP Logged

                          The Lottery is a state run heavily regulated institution. They deal with laws. Laws. They cannot make claims and not back them up. I'm sorry no matter what you're personal opinion is, the lottery has to be able to prove that what they say and claim is true. They don't make any claims without heavily regulating them and processing them as well. This is not online free stuff where you can just get away with anything. This is State, in the United States. What Litigious is a new word or something? Look up the facts. And yes it is annoying, but this is the U.S. what in the word litigious is not annoying? But it still has to be proven.

                          Some people were being naive at best.. but hopefully they got the point by now

                          Creativity..

                          " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                          Million dollar operation 

                          Wink

                            MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                            Ny
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                            Posted: October 3, 2016, 10:00 pm - IP Logged

                            Timing is everything! I wasn't planning on going out today, but had to make a trip to the bank. While out I played four sets of numbers in NY Pick4. One of those sets was the numbers from my old license plate. Tonight (Mon 10-3-16) the NYS Lottery Win4 number was 5137. I had 1357 box 50 cents for a $100 win. I have no system....just good timing.

                            A couple of other people in the NY thread played it and posted and got the win tonite also.. Sam & MrsD.. with great predictions today both winning mid & eve.. What do you call that besides great prediction skills for the day.. the 357 triad is something that sure seems to stick together when it shows.. I expect a rather hefty payout to ny players for tonite.. congrats to all of em'

                            Creativity..

                            " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                            Million dollar operation 

                            Wink

                              TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
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                              Posted: October 3, 2016, 10:29 pm - IP Logged

                              Correct me If I'm wrong, LP has a strict rule about Steroids being used on any animals or insects. That Ant looks like a wrestler. Big Grin Angel

                              My ant is bigger than your ant!

                              You'll just need a bigger hammer,

                               Smash

                              The Meatman

                              “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                              Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                                 
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