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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 20 days ago by Soledad.

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New York, NY
United States
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March 23, 2013
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Posted: October 22, 2016, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

"All combinations got the same probability. On the other hand when it comes to consecutive numbers. How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers?"

That's because there are other probabilities that can be applied to every combination. For instance the Combo 1-2-3-4-5 also has 3 odd and 2 even numbers and that 3 and 2 ratio represents more than half the combos. IMO there are just too many MM and PB combinations and that makes most filtering useless.

With pick-3, flip a coin three times heads is even and tails is odd. Flip three more times, heads is even, tails is odd. You'll have between 8 and 27 combinations, but only a 1 in 64 chance. Filtering helps reduce the field but those pesky odds with the 50% edge is still the real problem.

This is true Stack. 100%.

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    NY
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    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3475 Posts
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    Posted: October 22, 2016, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

    "would you please demonstrate how 'odds, probability and percentage' can produce a winning permutation/combination."

    The only thing that produces a win is getting lucky enough to have the winning numbers. I know that a lot of people here have a delusion that past results have some kind of magical effect on future events, but they don't. Posting a winning ticket, regardless of how you chose the numbers you played, proves that you got lucky, not that you somehow made an accurate prediction based on whatever mumbo jumbo you applied to past results.

    Of course I'd be perfectly happy to hear people's theories about the nature of the magical force that causes those future events to be preordained by the past results.

      bobby623's avatar - abstract
      San Angelo, Texas
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      Member #1097
      January 31, 2003
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      Posted: October 22, 2016, 7:30 pm - IP Logged

      You obviously have no tickets to demonstrate how odds, probability and percentage helped you choose winning integers for any lottery game.
      Seems all you have is a bucket of theoretical 'mumbo jumbo' of your own making.
      Can't believe you think people win lottery games by magic rather than hard work. Maybe that's because you don't know what hard
      work means.
      I don't have any magical forces guiding my lottery activities.
      What I do have is a substitution workout that generates rational trend lines that contain useful clues about which integers could arrive at the next drawing.
      If I choose wisely I have a chance of winning. Simple as that.
      Bottom line, all the theoretical stuff you and others like you are spreading just demonstrates that you believe there is a mathematical
      solution to winning a lottery.
      Unfortunately, there is no hard evidence supporting any of it, just a lot of hot air.
      Do you ever consider that the bad advice you are spreading may be causing folks to spend money on losing methods??
      Thanks for your interest.
      BTW If you ever have a magical moment and win be sure to let us know by showing a winning ticket.

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        New York, NY
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        Posted: October 22, 2016, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

        One plus one is two. That's my only theory. It's the first theory I was ever taught and it still holds true to this day. In mathematical terms it's written as 1+1=2. Lol. Not startin' nothin', but I am serious.

          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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          Posted: October 22, 2016, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

          Skill is required to win on small games but, luck is needed when specific prerequisites aren't met. The same applies to jackpot games IF one has the funding and mathematical skills along with ticket printing logistics resources. Consequently, the average person has neither of the three on either style of game, or, is afraid to risk the money. Every bit of any number-based lottery game is derived from math and, therefore, requires math to be truly successful over the long haul. When you number crunch properly and apply the appropriate amount of money, you have no choice but to win.

           

          http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit-students-gamed-the-lottery/470349/

          That is a great article and completely dismisses any doubt about the ability to consistently win through math know-how compiled with appropriate funding. When one would rather be lucky than skillful, they're at the complete mercy of whatever happens whenever it does. Skill, though, prompts the player at the right time to reasonably dictate their win and actually make money. 

          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

          #lotto-4-a-living

            Ricklou's avatar - majestic lion.jpg

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            Posted: October 23, 2016, 7:28 am - IP Logged

            A Big NO

            Big Smile

             

              eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
              LAS VEGAS
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              Posted: October 23, 2016, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

              A Big NO

              Timeless classic observation:

              "Observe the measure,for right timing is in all things the most important factor!."

               ~Hesiod, Ancient Greek Poet/Philosopher (he could handle a pair bones very well Wink

               

              Eddessa_knight with invisible Sun Smiley

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                New York, NY
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                Posted: October 23, 2016, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                Unless you can get it Straight every single time. There's no way to deny this.

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                  NY
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                  Posted: October 24, 2016, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

                  "I don't have any magical forces guiding my lottery activities. "

                  Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results. Maybe you can't wrap your head around it, but the only way that analyzing past results can increase your chances is if those past results have some kind of affect on future results. Unless perhaps you think there's some magic fairy that can control lottery results and occasionally rewards your hard work.

                  "all the theoretical stuff you and others like you are spreading just demonstrates that you believe there is a mathematical
                  solution to winning a lottery."

                  Are you really that confused? There is no mathematical solution to winning the lottery. It's a random event, period.

                  "Do you ever consider that the bad advice you are spreading may be causing folks to spend money on losing methods??"

                  You can't fix stupid, but I'm willing to try and educate people. I may not be perfect at explaining things, but your belief that I've suggested that probability theory (and please tell me you're not dumb enough to say "but it's just a theory") has to be a result of your own confusion. Reread what I wrote above if you still don't get it. And have you ever considered that your claim about winning a  whopping $200 bucks  as a result of your magical math may cause folks to spend money on losing methods?

                   

                  "Skill is required to win on small games"

                  That's one of the stupidest things I've seen here. You honestly believe that in a game with odds as low as 1 in 1000 or 1in 10,000 can't be won through simple probability and luck? Have you ever even heard of quick picks?

                    bobby623's avatar - abstract
                    San Angelo, Texas
                    United States
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                    January 31, 2003
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                    Posted: October 24, 2016, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                    "I don't have any magical forces guiding my lottery activities. "

                    Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results. Maybe you can't wrap your head around it, but the only way that analyzing past results can increase your chances is if those past results have some kind of affect on future results. Unless perhaps you think there's some magic fairy that can control lottery results and occasionally rewards your hard work.

                    "all the theoretical stuff you and others like you are spreading just demonstrates that you believe there is a mathematical
                    solution to winning a lottery."

                    Are you really that confused? There is no mathematical solution to winning the lottery. It's a random event, period.

                    "Do you ever consider that the bad advice you are spreading may be causing folks to spend money on losing methods??"

                    You can't fix stupid, but I'm willing to try and educate people. I may not be perfect at explaining things, but your belief that I've suggested that probability theory (and please tell me you're not dumb enough to say "but it's just a theory") has to be a result of your own confusion. Reread what I wrote above if you still don't get it. And have you ever considered that your claim about winning a  whopping $200 bucks  as a result of your magical math may cause folks to spend money on losing methods?

                     

                    "Skill is required to win on small games"

                    That's one of the stupidest things I've seen here. You honestly believe that in a game with odds as low as 1 in 1000 or 1in 10,000 can't be won through simple probability and luck? Have you ever even heard of quick picks?

                    Here we go - again!
                    Insults and $2 will get you a cup of regular coffee in my town!
                    There is NO MAGIC in my workout, no 'mumbo jumbo' or any kind mathematics, except for
                    some kindergarten arithmetic where a User has to count to '8'.
                    Instead of analyzing a game matrix en masse, as 99.99 percent of lottery gamblers do, I use the power of substitution to divide most lottery games into 3 major parts.
                    Each part is then divided into 3 sections, A, B, and C.
                    I then analyze PREVIOUS GAME HISTORY and create an Alpha Signature data base.
                    The Alpha Signature for Pick 3 permutation 258 is ABC, which is called a 'Single'
                    A majority of the Pick 3 permutations have double letters in their signatures.
                    For example, 675 is a Double B.
                    Choosing integers to play requires GAME HISTORY be analyzed to identify the integers
                    having the best chance of being in the next winning permutation.
                    This is accomplished with tracking charts reflecting  PREVIOUS WINNING PERMUTATIONS that are processed in accordance with specific rules of procedure.
                    When choosing which integers could be in the next winning permutation/combination, I refer to two TREND lines consisting of FOLLOWERS, generated by procedures.
                    Here is an example:
                    GAP - 231222121331232132113
                    SUM - 343354252345342
                    The question then becomes - What's next?
                    The GAP line ends with '3'
                    The followers for 3 are 13122
                    The next could be 1,2,or 3.
                    The SUM lines ends with 2
                    The followers for 2 are 53.
                    The next could be 2,3,4,5 or 6.
                    Correct choices yield integers that could be in the final drawing.
                    All of this data is based on PREVIOUS DRAW RESULTS, which are logged according to a plan.
                    There is more to it, of course.
                    Yes, it's guesswork, but, second-guessing the lottery draw machine is what lottery play is all about.
                    The workout is not a predictor.
                    The User logs the data in accordance with the rules and then analyzes the results.
                    There are no features that generate ready-to-play permutations.
                    It's not about seeing the future via some kind of magic.
                    There are no algorithms, no complex mathematical formulae, no high and lows, now odds and evens, no vtrac, no odds, no probability,
                    no percentage,  no statistical charts, no Excel, no software, none of the stuff being pushed in this forum everyday.
                    The User uses whatever 'brain power' he/she possesses, intuition and experience to make the best possible choices.
                    As far as I know, I'm the only User of substitution, probably because most folks don't have the time or mental smarts to do something different.
                    I guess you are are among the 1% who has a fat bank account.
                    In my world, $200 will pay for many future plays, including one that might pay $5,000, that I can add to the $2,700 I won last year.
                    Make it worth my time and I'll set up a workout for your Pick 3 game.
                    Thanks for your interest.

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                      Kentucky
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                      Posted: October 24, 2016, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                      Skill is required to win on small games but, luck is needed when specific prerequisites aren't met. The same applies to jackpot games IF one has the funding and mathematical skills along with ticket printing logistics resources. Consequently, the average person has neither of the three on either style of game, or, is afraid to risk the money. Every bit of any number-based lottery game is derived from math and, therefore, requires math to be truly successful over the long haul. When you number crunch properly and apply the appropriate amount of money, you have no choice but to win.

                       

                      http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/how-mit-students-gamed-the-lottery/470349/

                      That is a great article and completely dismisses any doubt about the ability to consistently win through math know-how compiled with appropriate funding. When one would rather be lucky than skillful, they're at the complete mercy of whatever happens whenever it does. Skill, though, prompts the player at the right time to reasonably dictate their win and actually make money. 

                      There was an effect on the Massachusetts Cash WinFall game profits, but because it was positive, the lottery people looked the other way. The overall problem was the same as when an Australian syndicate bought all the tickets in the Virginia Lotto game; they tied up lottery terminals preventing others from playing. Because of that the Virginia Lottery and many other state lotteries created new rules preventing a group of players tying up terminals. But just like the Michigan Lottery, the Mass Lottery solved that problem by closing the game.

                      According to the article it wasn't that easy,

                      For the next seven years or so, schooling Cash WinFall became a full-time occupation for Harvey and several other MIT grads. While it required tedious work filling out individual slips and tax forms, it appears to have paid off.

                      And wagering $400,000 isn't something an average lottery player can do.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
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                        Posted: October 24, 2016, 6:16 pm - IP Logged

                        There was an effect on the Massachusetts Cash WinFall game profits, but because it was positive, the lottery people looked the other way. The overall problem was the same as when an Australian syndicate bought all the tickets in the Virginia Lotto game; they tied up lottery terminals preventing others from playing. Because of that the Virginia Lottery and many other state lotteries created new rules preventing a group of players tying up terminals. But just like the Michigan Lottery, the Mass Lottery solved that problem by closing the game.

                        According to the article it wasn't that easy,

                        For the next seven years or so, schooling Cash WinFall became a full-time occupation for Harvey and several other MIT grads. While it required tedious work filling out individual slips and tax forms, it appears to have paid off.

                        And wagering $400,000 isn't something an average lottery player can do.

                        Massachusetts Lottery commission didn't care because their mission was to sell as many tickets as possible and when it became obvious that players with only a few dollars were going to quit playing the game and reduce sales they eliminated the game. 

                        I'm sure the  same thing would happen in other states if a scheme of players with $400,000 were beating the odds and consistently making a profit was exposed.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          January 30, 2010
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                          Posted: October 24, 2016, 7:32 pm - IP Logged

                          "I don't have any magical forces guiding my lottery activities. "

                          Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results. Maybe you can't wrap your head around it, but the only way that analyzing past results can increase your chances is if those past results have some kind of affect on future results. Unless perhaps you think there's some magic fairy that can control lottery results and occasionally rewards your hard work.

                          "all the theoretical stuff you and others like you are spreading just demonstrates that you believe there is a mathematical
                          solution to winning a lottery."

                          Are you really that confused? There is no mathematical solution to winning the lottery. It's a random event, period.

                          "Do you ever consider that the bad advice you are spreading may be causing folks to spend money on losing methods??"

                          You can't fix stupid, but I'm willing to try and educate people. I may not be perfect at explaining things, but your belief that I've suggested that probability theory (and please tell me you're not dumb enough to say "but it's just a theory") has to be a result of your own confusion. Reread what I wrote above if you still don't get it. And have you ever considered that your claim about winning a  whopping $200 bucks  as a result of your magical math may cause folks to spend money on losing methods?

                           

                          "Skill is required to win on small games"

                          That's one of the stupidest things I've seen here. You honestly believe that in a game with odds as low as 1 in 1000 or 1in 10,000 can't be won through simple probability and luck? Have you ever even heard of quick picks?

                          "Skill is required to win on small games"

                          That's one of the stupidest things I've seen here. You honestly believe that in a game with odds as low as 1 in 1000 or 1in 10,000 can't be won through simple probability and luck? Have you ever even heard of quick picks?

                          Sure, I'll give you this one...it's actually my mistake. I intended to insert the word 'consistently' between the words "win_on." People most certainly do get extremely lucky but, that luck is often far and few between while varying player to player. Yes, KY FLOYD, I've heard of quick picks and quick picks fall into two categories with me. One, for people who have no understanding of math or 'reading numbers.' Two, when playing any other game outside of a 0-9 game where the numerical matrix is financially impossible to lend oneself any possibility of actually and reasonably 'controlling' the outcome of their win. Pick 3/4 are games that can, and, are won by smart players consistently via the application of correct math, the right money, and proper combinations at the right time. Any hardcore player that truly understands this game will tell you that QP's have no place with them. You're a definite quick pick player and thank you for your contributions.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

                            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                            Texas
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                            Posted: October 24, 2016, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

                            There was an effect on the Massachusetts Cash WinFall game profits, but because it was positive, the lottery people looked the other way. The overall problem was the same as when an Australian syndicate bought all the tickets in the Virginia Lotto game; they tied up lottery terminals preventing others from playing. Because of that the Virginia Lottery and many other state lotteries created new rules preventing a group of players tying up terminals. But just like the Michigan Lottery, the Mass Lottery solved that problem by closing the game.

                            According to the article it wasn't that easy,

                            For the next seven years or so, schooling Cash WinFall became a full-time occupation for Harvey and several other MIT grads. While it required tedious work filling out individual slips and tax forms, it appears to have paid off.

                            And wagering $400,000 isn't something an average lottery player can do.

                            Thank you, Stack, and you actually piggy-backed on my point(s) regarding the average player not possessing the funds to actually master some of these medium-sized jackpot games. There are players that possess the math skills to properly pin point what it takes to win a given jackpot but, it's a lack of funding and ticket printing resources which becomes the limit. My main point for sharing that was to illustrate how if math and money could master that particular game which had way more combinations and super high odds, Pick 3/4 is a cake walk for a person with those same skills. Granted, the profits would be tremendously smaller but, they'd also be so consistent. Now, do me small favor and please explain to your buddy, KY FLOYD, how math skills compiled with money and resources produces wins. These students at MIT went into their project to win with math SKILLS and INTENT, not luck, and they proved it by doing it over and over and over 'till the game was shut down. Apparently, and according to your buddy, only simple luck was needed for them to accomplish that feat. Sure, a one-time lucky quick pick win on a major jackpot is all you need to be set but, others like to win and enjoy smaller and more consistent wins in the mean time...and quick picks ain't gonna get it. 

                            Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                            There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                            #lotto-4-a-living

                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                              Texas
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                              January 30, 2010
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                              Posted: October 24, 2016, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

                              Massachusetts Lottery commission didn't care because their mission was to sell as many tickets as possible and when it became obvious that players with only a few dollars were going to quit playing the game and reduce sales they eliminated the game. 

                              I'm sure the  same thing would happen in other states if a scheme of players with $400,000 were beating the odds and consistently making a profit was exposed.

                              I'm sure the  same thing would happen in other states if a scheme of players with $400,000 were beating the odds and consistently making a profit was exposed.

                              You got that right. Also, this is the same reason why any player with a truly successful Pick 3/4 system ain't gonna be running around touting how they do it. No Nod I don't care if it's state side or online, successful gamblers are a high risk. The formula here is exactly as you've outlined, and, I've also shared the same gospel in the past. There must be more losers than winners for any gambling entity to be successful. When the opposite occurs, or, there becomes a lack of participation then that game is done. These MIT students are a truly exposed success story.

                              Question: How many lotteries has Steve Player caused to shut their games down? If he can win $100K on a jackpot game one time, then he can do it over and over right? No NodBSFrownWhat?No NoLurking Has anyone ever seen a picture of Steve Player? Have any of all those people in his testimonials page ever had their picture taken with Steve Player? Steve Player has apparently been in the numbers and lottery-winning business since 1981...winning thousands and hundreds of thousands of dollars since then, right? If he's really this good, AND, has so much money by now then why in the !@#$%&^)(*&^ hasn't he won both Mega Millions and Powerball BY NOW? Once again, No NodSadWhat?No NoBS Lurking Leaving

                               

                                                           

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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