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# Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

Topic closed. 595 replies. Last post 7 months ago by Soledad.

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Brooklyn, NY
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October 29, 2015
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 Posted: October 3, 2016, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

Yup great timing I also played 4 combos sum 16 and 17 with 5434 and 5345 (heavy).. I predicted sum 16 for tonite being as the sums seem to run back to back in short time spans IMO the last sum 16 I caught on 9/26 was 4921 with good timing.. completely backwards though.. last time it showed was in July.. played it off and on still caught it due to good tracking I'd say.. I was going to run the same combo back tonite but disagreed on it.. I was right.. 5137.. I agreed on 3 odd 1 even 12-way for the nite for good balance turned out to be all odd 24-way.. Also had 9453.. Congrats on your box win definitely good timing.. many more to you

Thanks Mike\$

The Meatman

“The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!

Dallas, Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 2:20 am - IP Logged

Thanks Stack and everybody for the kind messages. It is good to be back!

This is an interesting topic that shows how different the idea of random is perceived. As long as different numbers are drawn, then we claim everything is random and anything can happen on any given night. But if just once we saw 000 drawn 8, 16, 27, or 84 times in a row.......no doubt even the most staunch random adherents would question their perception of random. Random says it could happen where the history of 100's of thousands of draws says not happening. It is, by our real world experience completely, out of the realm of our understanding of reality.

Even random has to make sense.

An exact order set has a (1*10)* (1*10)* (1*10) or 1 in 1000 chance of occurring on any given night. For that same exact order set to fall the following night you would have (1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10)) or 1 in 1,000,000. The odds go up from there.  So where random says it could happen. Probability says it's getting impossible to continue to be totally random. (The same set of three numbers has been drawn back to back a handful of times in the Texas Night Pick 3 last I checked).

Still random has its limitations due to probability.

I'm not sure there is any tests we could do to conclusively prove that the pre-test affect the outcome of the live draws. The closest idea to proving anything would be to take 1000 live draws and determine how many individual sets occur, then take 1000 pre-test and live draws and do a count. Of course, the argument against that is that we're dealing with a different set of 1000 numbers and therefore the results are inconclusive. This idea brings us to the realization that the ball sets do not understand the difference between pre-test and live draw.

Still it might be interesting to see if we get more or less individual sets with the live draws plus pre-test. Or if the skips between the sets increase or decrease.

Another fallacy in dealing with random can be seen in dealing with a single digit repeat.

Every game has shown that when a set with three different digits is drawn, there is about a 67% chance one of those digits will repeat in the next draw.

If a double is drawn, there is about a 49% chance one of those digits will be drawn in the next draw.

If a triple is drawn, there is about a 27% chance that digit will be drawn in the next draw.

Again we see the limitations of random.

From these examples it seems that random does not put everything back on the table from draw to draw. Even random has limitations.

G

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 4:43 am - IP Logged

Thanks Stack and everybody for the kind messages. It is good to be back!

This is an interesting topic that shows how different the idea of random is perceived. As long as different numbers are drawn, then we claim everything is random and anything can happen on any given night. But if just once we saw 000 drawn 8, 16, 27, or 84 times in a row.......no doubt even the most staunch random adherents would question their perception of random. Random says it could happen where the history of 100's of thousands of draws says not happening. It is, by our real world experience completely, out of the realm of our understanding of reality.

Even random has to make sense.

An exact order set has a (1*10)* (1*10)* (1*10) or 1 in 1000 chance of occurring on any given night. For that same exact order set to fall the following night you would have (1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10)) or 1 in 1,000,000. The odds go up from there.  So where random says it could happen. Probability says it's getting impossible to continue to be totally random. (The same set of three numbers has been drawn back to back a handful of times in the Texas Night Pick 3 last I checked).

Still random has its limitations due to probability.

I'm not sure there is any tests we could do to conclusively prove that the pre-test affect the outcome of the live draws. The closest idea to proving anything would be to take 1000 live draws and determine how many individual sets occur, then take 1000 pre-test and live draws and do a count. Of course, the argument against that is that we're dealing with a different set of 1000 numbers and therefore the results are inconclusive. This idea brings us to the realization that the ball sets do not understand the difference between pre-test and live draw.

Still it might be interesting to see if we get more or less individual sets with the live draws plus pre-test. Or if the skips between the sets increase or decrease.

Another fallacy in dealing with random can be seen in dealing with a single digit repeat.

Every game has shown that when a set with three different digits is drawn, there is about a 67% chance one of those digits will repeat in the next draw.

If a double is drawn, there is about a 49% chance one of those digits will be drawn in the next draw.

If a triple is drawn, there is about a 27% chance that digit will be drawn in the next draw.

Again we see the limitations of random.

From these examples it seems that random does not put everything back on the table from draw to draw. Even random has limitations.

G

Hope all is well with you!! Happy to see you.

San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 10:59 am - IP Logged

I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
One more time!
When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
human notions and definitions of random.
In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
But, maybe I'm missing something.
You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.

Texas
United States
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October 23, 2007
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
One more time!
When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
human notions and definitions of random.
In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
But, maybe I'm missing something.
You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.

Very good question bobby.

If I was a betting man, oh wait....I AM! Anyway, the folks that claim the pretests disrupt the "natural flow" of the balls really can not answer your question.

I too, think the number of pretest draws is a little over the top, but as far as them affecting the official draw? They are all separate draws. One does not affect another.

But....to each his own.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR \$2)

San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
1454 Posts
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 1:00 pm - IP Logged
Here is practical example of my question posed in an earlier post about odds, probability, statistics, etc.
Some day soon, Alabama politicians are going to figure out how to ensure that everyone gets
a piece of the action and approve a state lottery.
Usually, the first game is Pick 3, probably because the game has a high profit margin.
Lets say they, lottery officials, decide that mechanical balls machines should be used.
There would, initially, be one drawing.
So, they buy the equipment and ball sets.
A drawing procedure is developed, which includes confidential testing to ensure everything is working properly.
The pre-test permutations are recorded, for whatever purpose they serve.
An aside - One day an unhappy lottery loser will discover the pre-test exist, and file a
complaint with the lottery. Maybe one day a judge will decide the pre-test results are public information and order them released,
but that day is far off into the future.
First drawing is held and the winning permutation is 1.2.3.
According to what some so-called experts say in their social postings, 1.2.3 shouldn't arrive again for 999, or 1,000 drawings.
Therefore, gamblers who like 1.2.3 should choose another triad.
However, the winning permutation for drawing 118 is 1.2.3!!!
How did that happen?
Are the odds makers wrong?
What's going on here?
My explanation is that the dumb mechanical ball machine just happened to let balls number 1,2,3 escape through the exit gates, a second time.
It's very likely, that 1.2.3 can show up again tomorrow or the next day, or some unpredictable date in the future.
So, what purpose does all the information about odds, probability, statistics serve in the
'real', day-by-day lottery drawing world??
Not much.
In fact, the gamblers who rely on the 'in the box' projections are probably going to
be frustrated and not win very often.

United States
Member #116344
September 8, 2011
4017 Posts
Online
 Posted: October 4, 2016, 1:09 pm - IP Logged

I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
One more time!
When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
human notions and definitions of random.
In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
But, maybe I'm missing something.
You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.

Some folks indulge in what I call ' Circular Reasoning'. Circular reason is a logical fallacy in which the reasoner begins with what they trying to end with. The ideal of each draw been unique and having the same odd ratio is a no no!. The culprit here is the pre-test (validation of null hypothesis in my opinion), with that, the premise for circular reason starts. I think arguing(is not even a debate) is just exercise in futility !

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
3575 Posts
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 4:38 pm - IP Logged

I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
One more time!
When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
human notions and definitions of random.
In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
But, maybe I'm missing something.
You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.

"For that same exact order set to fall the following night you would have (1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10)) or 1 in 1,000,000."

The odds of the same number occurring in the following night's drawing are 1 in 1000. The odds of a specific number occurring two specific nights in a row is 1 in 1 million.

"Probability says it's getting impossible to continue to be totally random"

No, probability just says that the results are increasingly unlikely. Whether or not it's a random result is determined by how the results are obtained, not by what the results are. When you flip perfectly fair coin the results are always random.  Flip it once and there's a 1 in 2 chance of heads and a 1 in 2 chance of tails. Flip it twice and there are four possible results, so your results, regardless of what they are were a 1 in 4 chance. Flip it 100 times and your results are 1 of the 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 possible results. That's particular result is exceedingly unlikely, but it's still the perfectly random result of probability. And whatever it was, it's no more unlikely than getting heads 100 times in a row.

"Again we see the limitations of random."

No, we just see the results of random probability. The only limitation of random probability is that you won't get results that aren't random.

"the experts know exactly how often each possible event should occur during 1,000 revolutions."

Maybe what you mean is different than what you said, but nobody knows how often each possible event should happen. All they know is that each possible event has the same chance of occurring, the probability that any particular result will occur n times in a thousand, and some other possibilities. There's nothing that's certain to happen.

"whose purpose is to scramble the odds"

The odds are determined by the structure of the game, such as picking 1 three digit number out of 1000. The equipment simply ensures that the selection process is random.

"The machines ... seem to know "

The machines don't know anything.

"How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned. "

Again, maybe it's what you're asking versus what you've written, but there aren't two different actions. The machines don't know whether a drawing is a test drawing, an official drawing to determine the winning numbers, or if somebody broke in and is just playing with the machine. Of course the same is true for the balls. The machine just mixes the balls and pops them out randomly.

United States
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September 8, 2011
4017 Posts
Online
 Posted: October 4, 2016, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

There is only one coin with two attributes, H and T. The Prior Ratio 1/2 remains the same irrespective of the number of flips. Conflating unique coin(data=1) with the number of its flips (Normal distribution of H and T)does negate the prior . You can apportion relative probabilities to H,T based on their distributions, be mindful that 10 flips does not equate flipping 10 separate coins. Flip a coin 4 ,20,1000 times, the ratio still remains 1/2 , because each flip is exclusive . The relative probabilities infer from the number of flips is just you sampling from a created data.Sure, the created data brings new information after each unique flip, but does not change the prior 1/2.

Ny
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

Now the question to me is and I'm sure the answers would differ.. What is the best bet after let's say 3 flips land on one side (heads) in your opinion? Or we can go one step further.. After the same digit consecutively draws in the same position 3 times or more do you lean towards a different digit for the next upcoming draw? why or why not? Is there a system or reasonable probability factor as to why streaks DO come to an end and why or why not this should be expected?

Is a coin flips 1:2 probability equal to a digit from 1-9 being drawn in the same spot?

Simplify..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar Ops.

Winning is great.
bel air maryland
United States
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

Just a thought.

Regarding lottery pre-tests. If the lottery officials do pre-tests just to make sure the machines are functioning properly and nothing else, then why can't they use plain, blank, unnumbered ping pong balls during the pre-tests?

If they did, there would no debate, no discussion at all, about the pre-tests affecting the official draws, or whether or not they are trying to control or prevent certain numbers from hitting. The balls or machines wouldn't need to be changed because someone thinks something doesn't "look" right, or things don't seem random, because the number 7 showed up 4 times in a row, (which is the issue here in this thread.)  Or because some sort of "statistical random" wasn't being met. (According to who?)  None of that would matter if the balls are unmarked. All you're concerned with is, did the machine work properly? Ie, the balls dropped into the drum, the air bounced them around, and they popped up the chute when the drawing official pressed the button. If everything is fine, then they reload it with the numbered balls and have the drawing.

If they want to measure and weigh the official drawing balls before and after the official draw like they do now, that's fine.    The official draw would be the only one with numbered balls and however they came up, that's what the number is.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

New York, NY
United States
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March 23, 2013
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

Now the question to me is and I'm sure the answers would differ.. What is the best bet after let's say 3 flips land on one side (heads) in your opinion? Or we can go one step further.. After the same digit consecutively draws in the same position 3 times or more do you lean towards a different digit for the next upcoming draw? why or why not? Is there a system or reasonable probability factor as to why streaks DO come to an end and why or why not this should be expected?

Is a coin flips 1:2 probability equal to a digit from 1-9 being drawn in the same spot?

From our perspective this seems like a reasonable question. However, it doesn't matter because each flip has the same chance. (1/2) So you're decision in the end would be based on your preconceived notions or ideas on what you would like to see next. Again a gamblers 'fallacy' issue is raised.

New York, NY
United States
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:45 pm - IP Logged

Just a thought.

Regarding lottery pre-tests. If the lottery officials do pre-tests just to make sure the machines are functioning properly and nothing else, then why can't they use plain, blank, unnumbered ping pong balls during the pre-tests?

If they did, there would no debate, no discussion at all, about the pre-tests affecting the official draws, or whether or not they are trying to control or prevent certain numbers from hitting. The balls or machines wouldn't need to be changed because someone thinks something doesn't "look" right, or things don't seem random, because the number 7 showed up 4 times in a row, (which is the issue here in this thread.)  Or because some sort of "statistical random" wasn't being met. (According to who?)  None of that would matter if the balls are unmarked. All you're concerned with is, did the machine work properly? Ie, the balls dropped into the drum, the air bounced them around, and they popped up the chute when the drawing official pressed the button. If everything is fine, then they reload it with the numbered balls and have the drawing.

If they want to measure and weigh the official drawing balls before and after the official draw like they do now, that's fine.    The official draw would be the only one with numbered balls and however they came up, that's what the number is.

"Statistical random"

According to their rules and policies on the pretests. CA website states it clearly. Then there are professional written reports made that are submitted to the head of the state commission as to why it was felt proper to change the machine...They measure and weigh the balls periodically, not every day. The machines themselves last a few years. The balls, weeks or months.

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

Just a thought.

Regarding lottery pre-tests. If the lottery officials do pre-tests just to make sure the machines are functioning properly and nothing else, then why can't they use plain, blank, unnumbered ping pong balls during the pre-tests?

If they did, there would no debate, no discussion at all, about the pre-tests affecting the official draws, or whether or not they are trying to control or prevent certain numbers from hitting. The balls or machines wouldn't need to be changed because someone thinks something doesn't "look" right, or things don't seem random, because the number 7 showed up 4 times in a row, (which is the issue here in this thread.)  Or because some sort of "statistical random" wasn't being met. (According to who?)  None of that would matter if the balls are unmarked. All you're concerned with is, did the machine work properly? Ie, the balls dropped into the drum, the air bounced them around, and they popped up the chute when the drawing official pressed the button. If everything is fine, then they reload it with the numbered balls and have the drawing.

If they want to measure and weigh the official drawing balls before and after the official draw like they do now, that's fine.    The official draw would be the only one with numbered balls and however they came up, that's what the number is.

Regarding lottery pre-tests. If the lottery officials do pre-tests just to make sure the machines are functioning properly and nothing else, then why can't they use plain, blank, unnumbered ping pong balls during the pre-tests?

Good question. I presented the sameone to myself during this discussion. That would save a lot of chaos and disagreement in those states. My guess is it's their procedure and the numbered balls are what represent the \$\$ and that is what pre-testing procedures

None of that would matter if the balls are unmarked. All you're concerned with is, did the machine work properly? Ie, the balls dropped into the drum, the air bounced them around, and they popped up the chute when the drawing official pressed the button. If everything is fine, then they reload it with the numbered balls and have the drawing.

This would certainly test the machine.

If they want to measure and weigh the official drawing balls before and after the official draw like they do now, that's fine.    The official draw would be the only one with numbered balls and however they came up, that's what the number is.

They may have this as a worthwhile argument to bring to their state officials. Use unnumbered balls for pre-tests. If there are any stipulations with that we will find them. Their only answer may be it's just their procedures and regulations. Other than that I guess change em'.

Simplify..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar Ops.

Winning is great.
bel air maryland
United States
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April 24, 2010
5700 Posts
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 Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:54 pm - IP Logged

Now the question to me is and I'm sure the answers would differ.. What is the best bet after let's say 3 flips land on one side (heads) in your opinion? Or we can go one step further.. After the same digit consecutively draws in the same position 3 times or more do you lean towards a different digit for the next upcoming draw? why or why not? Is there a system or reasonable probability factor as to why streaks DO come to an end and why or why not this should be expected?

Is a coin flips 1:2 probability equal to a digit from 1-9 being drawn in the same spot?

The same digit hits in the same position 3 times, I'm playing for a fourth. Stick with what's hot. How many times do people end up losing because they thought, "No way that's going to happen again." And then it does!

Sometimes what the lottery does goes against all logic, and you just have to go with it, even though it may make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

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