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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 17 days ago by Soledad.

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MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

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Posted: October 18, 2016, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

All combinations got the same probability.

On the other hand when it comes to consecutive numbers. How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers? So seldom we don't play combinations with so many consecutive numbers.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: October 18, 2016, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

    In pick 4 mainly? pick 3 could be analyzed also.. even jackpot games do you believe every combination has the same probability? just want opinions and why?

    Isn't it obvious?  If you make a list of the last 2000 or more drawings of any pick3 or pick4 drawing  you'll notice several combinations have hit several times while others have never hit at all.  I suspect the same would be true of jackpot games if the list was long enough.  A player would just have to find the uniqueness of the groups of winners and he could improve his odds of winning.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      Posted: October 19, 2016, 12:33 am - IP Logged

      "How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers?"

      About as often as we'd expect to see them if they had exactly the same chance of being drawn as any other combination.  MM and PB have about 259 and 292 million possible combinations of which 71 and 65 have 5 consecutive numbers.

      How often do we see 7, 13, 26, 30 and 42?

        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
        Texas
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        Posted: October 19, 2016, 6:25 pm - IP Logged

        Isn't it obvious?  If you make a list of the last 2000 or more drawings of any pick3 or pick4 drawing  you'll notice several combinations have hit several times while others have never hit at all.  I suspect the same would be true of jackpot games if the list was long enough.  A player would just have to find the uniqueness of the groups of winners and he could improve his odds of winning.

        Well, here's a link to a pretty heated discussion about odds, combinations, and probabilities. I saw where my points were validated several times.

        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/137361/2

        Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

        There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

        #lotto-4-a-living

          bobby623's avatar - abstract
          San Angelo, Texas
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          Posted: October 19, 2016, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

          "How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers?"

          About as often as we'd expect to see them if they had exactly the same chance of being drawn as any other combination.  MM and PB have about 259 and 292 million possible combinations of which 71 and 65 have 5 consecutive numbers.

          How often do we see 7, 13, 26, 30 and 42?

          IMHO, there is no specific answer to the question about consecutive numbers. Anything can happen and probably will when we least expect it.
          As for 7.13.26.30.42.
          Depends on which side of the mixing vessel you are standing.
          In a new, never before played game, the combination could arrive one time out of xxx Theoretical revolutions, or drawings, depending on the game matrix.
          When the game is placed in a mixing vessel, the situation changes.
          There is only one 7.13.26.30.42, but it could arrive multiple times per xxx ACTUAL revolutions.
          In theory, 666 should only arrive once per xxx pre-mix revolutions.
          However, in Texas,  666 has arrived multiple times including at least one instance where it arrived in consecutive drawings.

          I'm not a math genius, but I think it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results.
          Actually, I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on.
          I think the best and most truthful statements is, for example:
          "Based on xxx previous drawings, yyy has arrived zzz times, or aaa percent."
          Almost all lotteries have pages where permutations/combinations can be checked against all previous drawings.
          It would be rare to see 7.13.26.30.42 as having arrived more than once, if at all for the inclusive draw dates.
          However, 7.13.26.30 could have arrived multiple times, as would 7.13.26 and other variations.
          But, who am I to base my plays on common sense, rather than theoretical projections that mean very little in day-to-day decisions about what to play.

            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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            Posted: October 21, 2016, 11:24 am - IP Logged

            IMHO, there is no specific answer to the question about consecutive numbers. Anything can happen and probably will when we least expect it.
            As for 7.13.26.30.42.
            Depends on which side of the mixing vessel you are standing.
            In a new, never before played game, the combination could arrive one time out of xxx Theoretical revolutions, or drawings, depending on the game matrix.
            When the game is placed in a mixing vessel, the situation changes.
            There is only one 7.13.26.30.42, but it could arrive multiple times per xxx ACTUAL revolutions.
            In theory, 666 should only arrive once per xxx pre-mix revolutions.
            However, in Texas,  666 has arrived multiple times including at least one instance where it arrived in consecutive drawings.

            I'm not a math genius, but I think it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results.
            Actually, I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on.
            I think the best and most truthful statements is, for example:
            "Based on xxx previous drawings, yyy has arrived zzz times, or aaa percent."
            Almost all lotteries have pages where permutations/combinations can be checked against all previous drawings.
            It would be rare to see 7.13.26.30.42 as having arrived more than once, if at all for the inclusive draw dates.
            However, 7.13.26.30 could have arrived multiple times, as would 7.13.26 and other variations.
            But, who am I to base my plays on common sense, rather than theoretical projections that mean very little in day-to-day decisions about what to play.

            it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results.
            Actually, I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on.

             

            I couldn't agree with you more on your statements but, this one particularly resonates with me. Yes, you and I have slight disagreements on pre-testing and that's cool. But, if one really thinks about what all you're saying here, and factors in pre-testing results if available, they'll clearly see where drawing numbers over and over prior to their official draw actually does create biases. I agree that instead of simply rambling on about what the lotteries say about odds and percentages, people should apply real world-real time ratios based on everything. In terms of consecutive numbers and combos being drawn, we can go to any state and see where this has occurs because it happens and I've even illustrated it. There's a Catch 22 to it all, though, and it's that those same combos are only showing up consecutively after several pre-tests. We can go to any state lottery's results page, find two draws where the same combo showed up back to back, and I'll guarantee with every dollar to my name that the combo in question was nowhere to be found in the very first pre-test draw following their last official draw. The way you properly 'measure' true odds and probabilities is by doing it from one 'clean draw' to the very next one and not by inserting those obstructive draws in between.

             

              it could arrive multiple times per xxx ACTUAL revolutions.

            These two words are the very basis and fundamental aspect of what is dictated during their draws. How many times they actually draw out numbers directly affects things in the end 'cause those are still actual revolutions no matter what they decide to label them. Since you enjoy Texas Cash 5, go and take a look at the 10/20/2016 pre-test results where you'll find (27), (35), and (36)...then go and see what the official results are for that same draw. As such, one number from the last draw will often show up as well which makes the conglomeration of pre-test results along with official draw results a pretty decent start in my opinion.

            Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

            There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

            #lotto-4-a-living

              bobby623's avatar - abstract
              San Angelo, Texas
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              Posted: October 21, 2016, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

              it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results.
              Actually, I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on.

               

              I couldn't agree with you more on your statements but, this one particularly resonates with me. Yes, you and I have slight disagreements on pre-testing and that's cool. But, if one really thinks about what all you're saying here, and factors in pre-testing results if available, they'll clearly see where drawing numbers over and over prior to their official draw actually does create biases. I agree that instead of simply rambling on about what the lotteries say about odds and percentages, people should apply real world-real time ratios based on everything. In terms of consecutive numbers and combos being drawn, we can go to any state and see where this has occurs because it happens and I've even illustrated it. There's a Catch 22 to it all, though, and it's that those same combos are only showing up consecutively after several pre-tests. We can go to any state lottery's results page, find two draws where the same combo showed up back to back, and I'll guarantee with every dollar to my name that the combo in question was nowhere to be found in the very first pre-test draw following their last official draw. The way you properly 'measure' true odds and probabilities is by doing it from one 'clean draw' to the very next one and not by inserting those obstructive draws in between.

               

                it could arrive multiple times per xxx ACTUAL revolutions.

              These two words are the very basis and fundamental aspect of what is dictated during their draws. How many times they actually draw out numbers directly affects things in the end 'cause those are still actual revolutions no matter what they decide to label them. Since you enjoy Texas Cash 5, go and take a look at the 10/20/2016 pre-test results where you'll find (27), (35), and (36)...then go and see what the official results are for that same draw. As such, one number from the last draw will often show up as well which makes the conglomeration of pre-test results along with official draw results a pretty decent start in my opinion.

              Hello, Lucky
              I use the power of substitution to guide my lottery gambling activities.
              Therefore, almost all of the information in this thread is of no value to me.
              I use the individual integers in the official winning permutations/combinations to drive
              my workouts.
              All lottery data bases are generated by human interpretation of game results, not by dumb as dirt lottery machines having no memory.
              You have made it abundantly clear that you believe the pretests should be accounted for in the data base, which is your right.
              But, not everyone agrees.
              Texas posts the pretests about an hour before the official drawing.
              Pity the players in states that don't consider test results to be public information.
              My view is that anyone who believes that they have to have the pretests results has to believe in their heart of hearts that there is a mathematical solution to lottery gaming.
              If that were true, we wouldn't have lotteries.
              Maybe I once thought mathematics could be helpful.
              I believed that test results had a role, but not anymore.
              Besides, with 4 drawings in Texas, who has the time to process that much information.
              If you are a programmer, you have the means to automate your data base.
              But, us paper and pencil folks are not so blessed.
              Keeping a lottery workout up-do-date requires lot of time and effort.
              I adopted substitution after struggling with math based models that didn't work.
              It required a lot of time initially, but I've come up with ways to ease the workload.
              However, I recently decided that I don't need data bases that include all draw results.
              I only need the last drawing.
              Thus, I base by Saturday Lotto plays on the previous Wednesday only.
              My Day Pick 3 workout uses only the Morning results.
              Took awhile, but I've completed the conversions.
              Is it paying off??
              I'm winning now and then, which is good enough for me.
              I really don't know what else to say on this topic.
              Maybe I should just step back and mind my own business.
              I've tried numerous times to get folks interested in substitution, but it's a radical change from what most people  believe.
              So, I'll just keep doing what I do.
              I've learned how to post graphics, and will post any significant wins.
              Have a good one!!
                Avatar
                Kentucky
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                Posted: October 21, 2016, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

                All combinations got the same probability.

                On the other hand when it comes to consecutive numbers. How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers? So seldom we don't play combinations with so many consecutive numbers.

                "All combinations got the same probability. On the other hand when it comes to consecutive numbers. How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers?"

                That's because there are other probabilities that can be applied to every combination. For instance the Combo 1-2-3-4-5 also has 3 odd and 2 even numbers and that 3 and 2 ratio represents more than half the combos. IMO there are just too many MM and PB combinations and that makes most filtering useless.

                With pick-3, flip a coin three times heads is even and tails is odd. Flip three more times, heads is even, tails is odd. You'll have between 8 and 27 combinations, but only a 1 in 64 chance. Filtering helps reduce the field but those pesky odds with the 50% edge is still the real problem.

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                  Posted: October 22, 2016, 1:36 am - IP Logged

                  IMHO, there is no specific answer to the question about consecutive numbers. Anything can happen and probably will when we least expect it.
                  As for 7.13.26.30.42.
                  Depends on which side of the mixing vessel you are standing.
                  In a new, never before played game, the combination could arrive one time out of xxx Theoretical revolutions, or drawings, depending on the game matrix.
                  When the game is placed in a mixing vessel, the situation changes.
                  There is only one 7.13.26.30.42, but it could arrive multiple times per xxx ACTUAL revolutions.
                  In theory, 666 should only arrive once per xxx pre-mix revolutions.
                  However, in Texas,  666 has arrived multiple times including at least one instance where it arrived in consecutive drawings.

                  I'm not a math genius, but I think it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results.
                  Actually, I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on.
                  I think the best and most truthful statements is, for example:
                  "Based on xxx previous drawings, yyy has arrived zzz times, or aaa percent."
                  Almost all lotteries have pages where permutations/combinations can be checked against all previous drawings.
                  It would be rare to see 7.13.26.30.42 as having arrived more than once, if at all for the inclusive draw dates.
                  However, 7.13.26.30 could have arrived multiple times, as would 7.13.26 and other variations.
                  But, who am I to base my plays on common sense, rather than theoretical projections that mean very little in day-to-day decisions about what to play.

                  "there is no specific answer to the question about consecutive numbers."

                  The answer depends on what the question is. I'm assuming the question about consecutive numbers was meant to suggest that such results are less likely than other results, because of the imaginary significance of the relationship between the numbers. There are two possibilities for a specific answer. One is to provide an exact answer about how many times that has actually happened, but there are a lot of different games where 5 or 6 consecutive numbers is possible, and I'm certainly not going to bother looking for all the suitable results. The other specific answer is how often we should expect them. For the current PB matrix it's 65 times in 292 million drawings, or 1 in 4,495,405. That's about 43,000 years worth of drawings. Of course that's exactly the same probability as for any other group of 65 results.

                  "I think it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results. "

                  I'm not sure what that means, but the real world results are a function of the "odds, probabilities and percentages".

                  "I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on."

                  Then I'd have to figure that your missing some key knowledge. Per Cent is always based on 100; that's what it means. Unless it's been said incorrectly percentage, probability, and odds always tell you that information.

                  "I think the best and most truthful statements is, for example: ... "

                  It depends on what information you're looking for. Past results tell you what actually happened, but don't necessarily offer any insight into what's likely to happen. Having 666 (or any other result) come up two days in a row is a good example. There's only a 1 in 1000 chance it will happen in any particular drawing, but a lot of people think those two drawings in a row mean that it's more or less likely to happen again than it really is.

                  "It would be rare to see 7.13.26.30.42 as having arrived more than once, if at all for the inclusive draw dates. However, 7.13.26.30 could have arrived multiple times ..."

                  Again, I've got no idea what your point is unless you're commenting on the obvious: there are far more combinations with 3 or 4 particular numbers than with 5, so they're far more likely to occur.

                  "who am I to base my plays on common sense, rather than theoretical projections that mean very little in day-to-day decisions about what to play."

                  Common sense tells me that what's likely to happen is far more useful than what has happened, since the latter offers no insight about future results.

                    bobby623's avatar - abstract
                    San Angelo, Texas
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                    Posted: October 22, 2016, 7:51 am - IP Logged

                    "there is no specific answer to the question about consecutive numbers."

                    The answer depends on what the question is. I'm assuming the question about consecutive numbers was meant to suggest that such results are less likely than other results, because of the imaginary significance of the relationship between the numbers. There are two possibilities for a specific answer. One is to provide an exact answer about how many times that has actually happened, but there are a lot of different games where 5 or 6 consecutive numbers is possible, and I'm certainly not going to bother looking for all the suitable results. The other specific answer is how often we should expect them. For the current PB matrix it's 65 times in 292 million drawings, or 1 in 4,495,405. That's about 43,000 years worth of drawings. Of course that's exactly the same probability as for any other group of 65 results.

                    "I think it's wrong to throw out odds, probabilities and percentages based on theory, rather than real world results. "

                    I'm not sure what that means, but the real world results are a function of the "odds, probabilities and percentages".

                    "I feel somewhat insulted when I read postings telling me that there is xx percent of something happening, but no comment on how many revolutions the projection is based on."

                    Then I'd have to figure that your missing some key knowledge. Per Cent is always based on 100; that's what it means. Unless it's been said incorrectly percentage, probability, and odds always tell you that information.

                    "I think the best and most truthful statements is, for example: ... "

                    It depends on what information you're looking for. Past results tell you what actually happened, but don't necessarily offer any insight into what's likely to happen. Having 666 (or any other result) come up two days in a row is a good example. There's only a 1 in 1000 chance it will happen in any particular drawing, but a lot of people think those two drawings in a row mean that it's more or less likely to happen again than it really is.

                    "It would be rare to see 7.13.26.30.42 as having arrived more than once, if at all for the inclusive draw dates. However, 7.13.26.30 could have arrived multiple times ..."

                    Again, I've got no idea what your point is unless you're commenting on the obvious: there are far more combinations with 3 or 4 particular numbers than with 5, so they're far more likely to occur.

                    "who am I to base my plays on common sense, rather than theoretical projections that mean very little in day-to-day decisions about what to play."

                    Common sense tells me that what's likely to happen is far more useful than what has happened, since the latter offers no insight about future results.

                    With all due respect, would you please demonstrate how 'odds, probability and percentage' can produce a winning permutation/combination.
                    It's easy to post a copy of tickets, if any.

                    Here is copy of my recent $200 Daily 4 win where I used game history, ie previous draw results, to select integers having best chance of
                    winning.
                    Theory is good but in lottery gambling knowing where a game has been is the only way to know where it might be headed.
                    Thanks for your interest.

                      Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                      Zaperlopopotam
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                      Posted: October 22, 2016, 11:10 am - IP Logged

                      With all due respect, would you please demonstrate how 'odds, probability and percentage' can produce a winning permutation/combination.
                      It's easy to post a copy of tickets, if any.

                      Here is copy of my recent $200 Daily 4 win where I used game history, ie previous draw results, to select integers having best chance of
                      winning.
                      Theory is good but in lottery gambling knowing where a game has been is the only way to know where it might be headed.
                      Thanks for your interest.

                      Here is copy of my recent $200 Daily 4 win where I used game history, ie previous draw results, to select integers having best chance of
                      winning.

                      I don't want to know about best chances of winning, but why did you choose integers over float?

                      .
                        Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                        Zaperlopopotam
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                        Posted: October 22, 2016, 11:17 am - IP Logged

                        All combinations got the same probability.

                        On the other hand when it comes to consecutive numbers. How often do we see 5 or 6 consecutive numbers? So seldom we don't play combinations with so many consecutive numbers.

                        Do you believe every combination has the same probability? ...

                        I believe that people who believe live in the Vatican. But, again, some or more of those if not all just don't believe at all. Looking at your question, you're not a graduate. You may want to talk to a bachelor in mathematics.

                        So, Todd should move the question to the mathematics forum. He will or won't. Probability says that he will, but history will tell you that he won't.

                        Good luck with guessing!

                        .
                          Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
                          Zaperlopopotam
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                          Posted: October 22, 2016, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                          Well, here's a link to a pretty heated discussion about odds, combinations, and probabilities. I saw where my points were validated several times.

                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/137361/2

                          Green laugh

                          .
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                            Posted: October 22, 2016, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

                            True. In terms of the article you posted about how many losses it took to get to that win. I'll always believe that 1 big win will eliminate dozens and dozens of bad losses. Otherwise I really wouldn't play. 

                            I believe still that if you put a value on such a thing as a random ball. Then that value then has weight. It carries with it meaning. As long as I have 4 or 7 or 10 or 14 draws to look back on, that is all I need to use to find further significance in those values. Those are principles of mathematics that I find to be true. Numbers and values. 

                            Yet, the one thing that I don't understand, is the delay factor. But these are also fundamentals and principles that go deeper into subjects that I'm not particularly great at understanding. If one thing happens one way, then how come the next thing that happens, while still connected with the same numbers, but it still happens slightly different. That is a very confusing side to the idea of "statistics" as well as "random". 

                            I think sometimes we put too much value on something, or were taught to find the answer quickly and shout it out, when really there is much more involved that perhaps we don't really understand. I don't know maybe I'm just rambling. My first time writing this got deleted somehow so I tried to rewrite what I was thinking. But I still believe that you can connect what you see or what is given in front of you, if only you have all the information that is involved to connect. And I do realize that is what you are saying LL, I just think we're saying it a little differently. Like the old saying, use what you got to the best of your ability and forget about what's not. Etc.

                            They'll always slip up sooner or later, and it can justify any losses that have occurred, imo.

                            But I have learned at least this year that there's a lot more to consider than just a + or - or x or ÷ sign. Even if I have 6 winning numbers that have more of a chance to come out within 7 days, I'm still spending at most $168 total to get at only the possibility of $300 or $500 in the end. Luck, lol, is a fickle entity.

                              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                              Texas
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                              Posted: October 22, 2016, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

                              With all due respect, would you please demonstrate how 'odds, probability and percentage' can produce a winning permutation/combination.
                              It's easy to post a copy of tickets, if any.

                              Here is copy of my recent $200 Daily 4 win where I used game history, ie previous draw results, to select integers having best chance of
                              winning.
                              Theory is good but in lottery gambling knowing where a game has been is the only way to know where it might be headed.
                              Thanks for your interest.

                              Hey, that's nice a nice bump, bobby, and congratulations my man!! Cheers Let's see...

                               

                              knowing where a game has been is the only way to know where it might be headed.

                              Yes, sir, I agree with you 100%Yes Nod. It's interesting, to me, that your 4-1-9 and 2-1-4 combos had already forecasted in the 10/19/2016 evening pre-testing. 

                               

                              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                              #lotto-4-a-living

                                 
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