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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 20 days ago by Soledad.

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MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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Posted: October 2, 2016, 1:43 am - IP Logged

 All you know is that they've got a policy of swapping out equipment if the same ball is selected too many times.

That is exactly what they do in the pre-tests. It's in their procedures and has already been posted here on LP. The question I have been asking through out this thread which absolutely no one has answered is, WHY do they do it??? What are they trying to cause or prevent???

They have to make sure the machines are working properly? Five times??? More than that in some states???  That is pure 100% BSThe machines and balls are locked up under 24-7-365 surveillance. The balls are weighed and measured before and after each drawing to make sure they are within spec. There has to be at least 2 people present just to get into the room where they are kept. And then once the room is unlocked, every thing is video taped. How in the world is anyone going to be able to tamper with them?

And with all that security in place, if the same number comes up more than 4 times, they think there is something wrong with the equipment and they have to remove it???  gimme a break/

BS  ROFL   Green laugh

The question I have been asking through out this thread which absolutely no one has answered is, WHY do they do it??? What are they trying to cause or prevent???

In conclusion what I got from this is the lottery officials are preventing a bias situation for players. They're preventing something from happening for the next 4 draws is what I got from this thread. I think it's a valid point to consider. 

They have to make sure the machines are working properly? Five times??? More than that in some states???  That is pure 100% BS

They test the machines as many times as they want it's their official procedures that they do every time. If all states do it that would mean it's fair game don't you think? That's the game. It actually turns out not to be a mystery why they do this. 4 or more consecutive draws with a digit in the same position would lead to only straight hits of that kind of combo with that specific digit in that specific spot to come out for 4 draws most states that's 2 days. That would be biased to only players who play a number of that kind for those days. If this would be detrimental to the success of a lottery I wouldn't know but it's their call and procedure. Some players would be happy for such a trend some wouldn't. If this is the lottery tampering or disrupting the flow I assume it depends on your definition... Then I believe it was stated that after 4 consecutive draws a repeat digit in the same spot shows, they do a 5th? and if it shows again they switch the machine. So after 5 pre tests of the same positional digit and a 1 new machine pre-test if it shows yet AGAIN we keep that combination for official draw result. That is interesting. Admit they're maybe a reason for that. That we all could use to our advantage.

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation 

Wink

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    New York, NY
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    Posted: October 2, 2016, 1:49 am - IP Logged

    grwurston,

    with all due respect. this is my attempt to answer this as best I can. I have at least said a few things about this. 

    Firstly the Lottery has everything to do with statistics. Why they do this that you said is not an easy question to answer. Not even by statisticians. I recall that you laid out the definition of random on this thread. And it is true they call these samples or draws random. However, it really is not true that a random draw that is chosen is random is it? No it is not. This is because the definition of random in the dictionary is misleading you when it comes to the word. Are all random samples chosen "without a method of conscious decision". No they are not. There are many different ways to obtain a "random" sample. I will define two of them and perhaps it may allow you to think further on this.

    A Simple Random Sample: A set of n objects in a population of N objects where all possible samples are equally likely to happen.

    A Random sample: While similar to a simple random sample, they are different. Each object in the sample does not necessarily have an equal chance of being chosen.

    There are times where estimates can be improved by varying the probabilities with which units are sampled. If the selection probabilities are unequal, the sample mean is not unbiased for the population mean and sample total is not unbiased for population total.

    The Lottery and its commission do all of this pre-testing and periodic measurements etc (no I will not say "balls" lol) to ensure "statistical randomness". That really is the bottom line as to why they do these things. I hope this at least offers some insight. It's late I'm tired

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      New York, NY
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      Posted: October 2, 2016, 3:58 am - IP Logged

      In the following link, please read lotterybraker's commentaries very closely. In his second post on Page 1, he specifically talks about disrupting the natural order of things with pre-tests...and he's dead onYes Nod. Also, note the lack of rebuttals to lotterybraker from two other 'main characters' who are duped by the system...not a word. For anyone to assert that what happens in between draws doesn't matter, enroute to selecting another group of numbers/combo, is someone I have a system forCheers

      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/153319/3

      And just for the record before you start bringing up LotteryBraker in every one of your posts, while I respect him as Jesus intended, I merely brought his name up because I felt he would of course find this topic interesting. I wish him and his family all of the best. However, I have proven him wrong when it comes to mathematics. And there's absolutely nothing that can deny that. And that has been since day one with me here on LP. LP has a lot of interesting people and original systems. Sometimes people claim them to be their own when they're not. Mine is my own, and I had it long before I joined. Still credit given by me to LP for giving me a lot more to think about and to expand on and to improve my own. And bobby623, please no system is perfect. This is random! Follow your own rules if that's fine. It doesn't matter. What exactly are you saying? I'm not here to say oh look I'm right you're wrong. Nobody has it perfect ok. Nobody is an expert. Nobody can say oh this will be the next number (unless they have a dream amber123;) Fallacies are fallacies and mistakes are mistakes. I was only here to find out if there were any points on probability that could help me understand what I need to. Adobea78's comment I did find to be helpful and MoneyMike's also. So I'm glad. So in the words of Win D, with all respect given, "odds never change but probability does".

        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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        Posted: October 2, 2016, 6:33 am - IP Logged

        And just for the record before you start bringing up LotteryBraker in every one of your posts, while I respect him as Jesus intended, I merely brought his name up because I felt he would of course find this topic interesting. I wish him and his family all of the best. However, I have proven him wrong when it comes to mathematics. And there's absolutely nothing that can deny that. And that has been since day one with me here on LP. LP has a lot of interesting people and original systems. Sometimes people claim them to be their own when they're not. Mine is my own, and I had it long before I joined. Still credit given by me to LP for giving me a lot more to think about and to expand on and to improve my own. And bobby623, please no system is perfect. This is random! Follow your own rules if that's fine. It doesn't matter. What exactly are you saying? I'm not here to say oh look I'm right you're wrong. Nobody has it perfect ok. Nobody is an expert. Nobody can say oh this will be the next number (unless they have a dream amber123;) Fallacies are fallacies and mistakes are mistakes. I was only here to find out if there were any points on probability that could help me understand what I need to. Adobea78's comment I did find to be helpful and MoneyMike's also. So I'm glad. So in the words of Win D, with all respect given, "odds never change but probability does".

        "So in the words of Win D, with all respect given, "odds never change but probability does".

        I recall Win D and I, in a phone call, telling me that. Something else I recall he told me, but keep forgetting, about pre-draws. I am getting old, "Famous last words about pre-draws." There is nothing we can do about those, forget them, work with what we have. My last words on this subject. I hope I don't forget.

          bobby623's avatar - abstract
          San Angelo, Texas
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          Posted: October 2, 2016, 10:37 am - IP Logged

          And just for the record before you start bringing up LotteryBraker in every one of your posts, while I respect him as Jesus intended, I merely brought his name up because I felt he would of course find this topic interesting. I wish him and his family all of the best. However, I have proven him wrong when it comes to mathematics. And there's absolutely nothing that can deny that. And that has been since day one with me here on LP. LP has a lot of interesting people and original systems. Sometimes people claim them to be their own when they're not. Mine is my own, and I had it long before I joined. Still credit given by me to LP for giving me a lot more to think about and to expand on and to improve my own. And bobby623, please no system is perfect. This is random! Follow your own rules if that's fine. It doesn't matter. What exactly are you saying? I'm not here to say oh look I'm right you're wrong. Nobody has it perfect ok. Nobody is an expert. Nobody can say oh this will be the next number (unless they have a dream amber123;) Fallacies are fallacies and mistakes are mistakes. I was only here to find out if there were any points on probability that could help me understand what I need to. Adobea78's comment I did find to be helpful and MoneyMike's also. So I'm glad. So in the words of Win D, with all respect given, "odds never change but probability does".


          Soledad++

          FWIW, I've been reading stuff like the posts in this thread for a long time.
          Doesn't make me an expert on anything, and I'm not claiming that what I do
          is superior to your methods, or the methods used by any lottery gambler.
          I'm just saying that I'm convinced that lottery prediction is a myth, a grand con-game
          being pushed by folks who probably spend lot of money but never or seldom win
          anything.
          The message I get from reading opinions expressed in 29 pages is that pre-tests is the primary  reason why so-called 'prediction' schemes don't work. A second reason the schemes, which includes a lot of really complicated software, are not working is that the games 'are not random enough.'
          Give me a break!!
          It's amazing how educated folks can watch a mechanical ball machine at work and continue to
          believe that it's possible to predict which 'balls' will come out of the exit gates. Makes me think that maybe some lottery experts are not as smart as they want people to think they are, or, they are pushing ideas that are in the stratospheric level with no practical application to daily lottery play.
          Lotteries exist to make money for the politicians.
          The games are designed in ways that ensure the lottery will be the biggest winner.
          All the testing folks here are arguing about is part of the 'action' and no amount of petty complaining is going to change anything.
          Odds, probability, statistics and all of the other 'human' designed strategies sound great and make some folks feel they are smarter than most folks, but none of it is worth much if doesn't produce winning streaks. If they did, lotteries wouldn't exist.
          Bottom line, lottery gambling is just like any form of gambling - You do the best you can with
          the information and mental abilities you possess.
          This ongoing conversation about random and testing may be educational for some folks, but
          it's just a big waste of time for folks who can see and grasp the 'big picture,' and are finding non-prediction methods that win - now and then.
          If you have time, take a look at the information in the Pick 5 Forum, NYTake5/39 thread.
          It's the details about a non-predictive workout where trend analysis is used to make good choices about which integers 'might' be in the next winning permutation or combination, depending on the game.
          Any comment you care to make would be appreciated.
          Thanks for your interest.
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            New York, NY
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            Posted: October 2, 2016, 10:49 am - IP Logged

            Ok ok all yes. There were just points I was trying to either prove or think about for myself. Thanks to everyone. Indeed.

              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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              Posted: October 2, 2016, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

              "So in the words of Win D, with all respect given, "odds never change but probability does".

              I recall Win D and I, in a phone call, telling me that. Something else I recall he told me, but keep forgetting, about pre-draws. I am getting old, "Famous last words about pre-draws." There is nothing we can do about those, forget them, work with what we have. My last words on this subject. I hope I don't forget.

              CARBOB, go over to the Connecticut Lottery website and have a look at what just happened in the last (4) consecutive draws on Pick 3, in positions B&C, beginning with the September 30 night drawEekFrown. UnbelievableNo Nod. We have a double set of repeating pairs along with the 3rd position digit repeating that magical (4) times in an official draws result...which is what grwurston and I challenge. Then, be sure to click on the 'Payout' tabs and compare how many players matched on all aspects of the combos...particularly on the rear pairs. Between the night draw of Sept. 30 and the midday draw of Oct. 1, they washed almost half of their winners in every matching category...and nobody, not one person in the entire state matched rear pairs again. Compare that to their 'balancing act' between the next draws. 

              The kicker is that there's no access to any pre or post-test draw results. I'd love to see and analyze a breakdown of everything that happened in between their official drawsIdea. Based on what I saw, I can almost guarantee that more winners were purged during pre-tests than actually won on either official drawYes Nod. There's a reason why they call it a game of chance and they're gonna make darn sure of itGreen laugh.

              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

              #lotto-4-a-living

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                Posted: October 2, 2016, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

                "Let the records show  ..."

                I suppose it just wouldn't occur to you, but not all of us share your obsession with the subject, or your desperate need for people to agree with you.  There's no reason at all that I would bother to look beyond this thread for more delusional people who  don't understand reality. I know there are bunch of you. That may help convince you you're right, but it just shows the rest of us that your delusion isn't particularly rare. There's even a name for it.

                 

                "I'm not repeating myself. If you and stuck can't understand simple concepts after the 50th time"

                That's some extraordinary logic there. You're not repeating yourself, but we've apparently heard these simple concepts 50 times? How about your earlier post where you claimed you've told us 1000 times? Do you still wonder why I think you're a moron, or can you figure it out?

                 

                "I don't think it would be too hard to program a slot to withhold the jackpot until the casino is ready"

                It would be just as easy as programming it to do anything else. The problem is that if it was programmed to not permit a jackpot win it would be violating the gaming laws.

                 

                "The lottery is just not gonna give away money that easily and that quickly"

                The lottery certainly isn't going to give money away at casino odds, but as long as probability guarantees them a percentage of wagers they make more money when people bet more money. That means that they'd be happy to give it away faster because that only happens when it comes in faster. Pick 3 and  pick 4 used to be daily games, but the lotteries figured out that  they can  make more money by offering them twice a day. Jackpot games (mostly) started out as weekly games before going to twice a week. Then there are newer games such as New York's Quick Draw, which has drawings every 4 minutes. The lotteries have devoted quite a bit of effort trying to fid the sweet spot that maximizes how much money players will spend.

                 

                "Do you not think if the Florida Lottery would have published these rules ..."

                You mean publish it like they  do on this page: http://www.flalottery.com/integrity ? Even here at a website that's devoted to the lottery and presumably visited by people with  more than an average interest in the lottery it's not at all unusual to see posts from people expressing surprise at the after-tax payout when somebody takes the lump sum. What is it that makes you think that the typical player would know even if the lottery made a real effort to publicize the testing, or that they'd care?

                 

                "too focus on pre tests will actually cloud your outlook on the game.."

                That's something we can agree on. Some posters believe that the test drawings are somehow different than the official drawings. If that's the case it would be just as stupid to use the results of test drawings for analysis as it would be to use the results from a different state.

                 

                "... absolutely no one has answered is, WHY do they do it?"

                I've told you at least twice that you're asking the wrong people. Why would anybody here know why the lottery adopts any particular rule? What's absolutely certain is that once they adopt a rule they try to follow it. All I can tell you is that a bunch of pre-tests don't do anything to change how random the process is, other than possibly identifying a machine or ball set that might be producing results that aren't as random as they should be. When the equipment is working properly a dozen drawings is a dozen drawings regardless of how many of them are official drawings that determine which numbers are the winners.

                 

                "I'm convinced that lottery prediction is a myth, a grand con-game being pushed by folks who probably spend lot of money but never or seldom win
                anything. "

                Accurate prediction is definitely a myth, because it's impossible to make accurate predictions of random results. Lottery results may not be perfectly random but they're awfully close. I don't know that it's correct to say that anyone is "pushing"  prediction except for the people who are selling something. Other people are just trying to defend it.

                  amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                  Posted: October 2, 2016, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

                  "Let the records show  ..."

                  I suppose it just wouldn't occur to you, but not all of us share your obsession with the subject, or your desperate need for people to agree with you.  There's no reason at all that I would bother to look beyond this thread for more delusional people who  don't understand reality. I know there are bunch of you. That may help convince you you're right, but it just shows the rest of us that your delusion isn't particularly rare. There's even a name for it.

                   

                  "I'm not repeating myself. If you and stuck can't understand simple concepts after the 50th time"

                  That's some extraordinary logic there. You're not repeating yourself, but we've apparently heard these simple concepts 50 times? How about your earlier post where you claimed you've told us 1000 times? Do you still wonder why I think you're a moron, or can you figure it out?

                   

                  "I don't think it would be too hard to program a slot to withhold the jackpot until the casino is ready"

                  It would be just as easy as programming it to do anything else. The problem is that if it was programmed to not permit a jackpot win it would be violating the gaming laws.

                   

                  "The lottery is just not gonna give away money that easily and that quickly"

                  The lottery certainly isn't going to give money away at casino odds, but as long as probability guarantees them a percentage of wagers they make more money when people bet more money. That means that they'd be happy to give it away faster because that only happens when it comes in faster. Pick 3 and  pick 4 used to be daily games, but the lotteries figured out that  they can  make more money by offering them twice a day. Jackpot games (mostly) started out as weekly games before going to twice a week. Then there are newer games such as New York's Quick Draw, which has drawings every 4 minutes. The lotteries have devoted quite a bit of effort trying to fid the sweet spot that maximizes how much money players will spend.

                   

                  "Do you not think if the Florida Lottery would have published these rules ..."

                  You mean publish it like they  do on this page: http://www.flalottery.com/integrity ? Even here at a website that's devoted to the lottery and presumably visited by people with  more than an average interest in the lottery it's not at all unusual to see posts from people expressing surprise at the after-tax payout when somebody takes the lump sum. What is it that makes you think that the typical player would know even if the lottery made a real effort to publicize the testing, or that they'd care?

                   

                  "too focus on pre tests will actually cloud your outlook on the game.."

                  That's something we can agree on. Some posters believe that the test drawings are somehow different than the official drawings. If that's the case it would be just as stupid to use the results of test drawings for analysis as it would be to use the results from a different state.

                   

                  "... absolutely no one has answered is, WHY do they do it?"

                  I've told you at least twice that you're asking the wrong people. Why would anybody here know why the lottery adopts any particular rule? What's absolutely certain is that once they adopt a rule they try to follow it. All I can tell you is that a bunch of pre-tests don't do anything to change how random the process is, other than possibly identifying a machine or ball set that might be producing results that aren't as random as they should be. When the equipment is working properly a dozen drawings is a dozen drawings regardless of how many of them are official drawings that determine which numbers are the winners.

                   

                  "I'm convinced that lottery prediction is a myth, a grand con-game being pushed by folks who probably spend lot of money but never or seldom win
                  anything. "

                  Accurate prediction is definitely a myth, because it's impossible to make accurate predictions of random results. Lottery results may not be perfectly random but they're awfully close. I don't know that it's correct to say that anyone is "pushing"  prediction except for the people who are selling something. Other people are just trying to defend it.

                  That's some extraordinary logic there. You're not repeating yourself, but we've apparently heard these simple concepts 50 times? How about your earlier post where you claimed you've told us 1000 times? Do you still wonder why I think you're a moron, or can you figure it out?

                  You've heard these simple concepts hundreds of times and you still don't get it. I suggest sticking to making KY Jelly and leave the critical thinking to the rest of us. BTW, you're not supposed to eat the jelly, it's for external use only. I say this because your brain is turning into jelly.

                  You and your buddies here on LP are the REAL morons. Anyone who truly believes conducting 5 to 7 pre tests has no affect on the official draw has to have mental issues. You know what I think? I think you should perform 7 pre tests before you respond with your ignorant replies just to make sure all your faculties are working properly, and no one has tampered with your brain. Hit With Stick

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                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: October 2, 2016, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

                    If you think the pre-tests don't influence the draws, why do you think they keep them private? If they don't influence the draws, they have nothing to hide.Texas publishes their draws. Maybe Texas is a little more honest the Florida.

                    "If you think the pre-tests don't influence the draws, why do you think they keep them private?"

                    I'm probably the last person to ask because the only influence testing can have on the official drawing is by cheating or negligence.

                    "If they don't influence the draws, they have nothing to hide."

                    How do you know they are hiding something?

                    If they were testing the machines, I guess they could record air pressure, RPMs of the mixing bar, or something else, but why record that when those results are meaningless?

                    "Texas publishes their draws."

                    And because they do, Lucky Loser says those results influence the official drawing though exactly what is the influence is fuzzy. If I were a Texas Lottery pick-3 player, the only drawing results I'd be interested in is the 10:00 a.m., 12:27 p.m., 6:00 p.m. and 10:12 p.m. CT, six days a week drawings. I can't control what they do in between and don't care.

                    "Texas is a little more honest the Florida."

                    If the Florida pick-3 payout percentage on the annual report is substantially lower than in Texas, you might be on to something, but I'm betting the ten year average for both lotteries is pretty close to 50%. It should be obvious that all the lotteries using live ball drawings conduct some type of tests regardless if they record the results or not. If I really thought the Kentucky Lottery was cheating or doing something that influenced the official drawings preventing any of the 1000 combos from being drawn, I'd contact my state representative and show them my evidence. What is your evidence again?

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                      Posted: October 2, 2016, 10:39 pm - IP Logged

                      "You and your buddies here on LP are the REAL morons."

                      Apparently Amber believes by making childish insults, people will think they are very intelligent and anything they say is fact. Can someone please give a good reason why anyone should discuss anything with Amber?

                        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                        Posted: October 3, 2016, 12:00 am - IP Logged

                        "You and your buddies here on LP are the REAL morons."

                        Apparently Amber believes by making childish insults, people will think they are very intelligent and anything they say is fact. Can someone please give a good reason why anyone should discuss anything with Amber?

                        I have a good reason...I'm smarter than you.

                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                          Dallas, Texas
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                          Posted: October 3, 2016, 1:00 am - IP Logged

                          "If you think the pre-tests don't influence the draws, why do you think they keep them private?"

                          I'm probably the last person to ask because the only influence testing can have on the official drawing is by cheating or negligence.

                          "If they don't influence the draws, they have nothing to hide."

                          How do you know they are hiding something?

                          If they were testing the machines, I guess they could record air pressure, RPMs of the mixing bar, or something else, but why record that when those results are meaningless?

                          "Texas publishes their draws."

                          And because they do, Lucky Loser says those results influence the official drawing though exactly what is the influence is fuzzy. If I were a Texas Lottery pick-3 player, the only drawing results I'd be interested in is the 10:00 a.m., 12:27 p.m., 6:00 p.m. and 10:12 p.m. CT, six days a week drawings. I can't control what they do in between and don't care.

                          "Texas is a little more honest the Florida."

                          If the Florida pick-3 payout percentage on the annual report is substantially lower than in Texas, you might be on to something, but I'm betting the ten year average for both lotteries is pretty close to 50%. It should be obvious that all the lotteries using live ball drawings conduct some type of tests regardless if they record the results or not. If I really thought the Kentucky Lottery was cheating or doing something that influenced the official drawings preventing any of the 1000 combos from being drawn, I'd contact my state representative and show them my evidence. What is your evidence again?

                          Texas instituted the rules for pre-tests and equipment testing to prevent a "Triple Six Fix" as happened in Pennsylvania. I imagine publishing of those pre-tests have to do with the state's Open Records Law. Remember the Pennsylvania fix occurred years before Texas Lottery began.

                          I would think the Tennessee Lottery would have caught their software failure much quicker (preventing doubles and triples to be drawn) had they kept records or published pre-tests.

                          Whether a state has anything to hide or not, consider it the government stance, "The people do not need to know that. People will start asking questions we can't answer (without going into details we don't want to discuss)." Sometimes it's because the people giving the answers do not know what, how and why things work. Definitely some things are kept from the public. That's the way the government works to "protect us." Consider the Tennessee Lottery software fiasco preventing doubles and triples from being drawn. How much sooner might that have been caught had they recorded or published pre-test drawings? (Yeah, I get the big failure was inadequate software testing but recording the pre-test, even as a secondary security measure, would have proved abnormal results).

                          Do the pre-test affect the draws? That appears to be a matter of opinion. When Texas had one P3 game, the night draw, it seemed to be much simpler. Using pre-tests, or not using pre-tests, had little to no effect. You were only accounting for 5 draws (with pre-test). From time to time, one of your picks ends up in a pre-test. You don't think much of it. 

                          Now with 4 draws per day that has become 16 pre-tests per day, plus 4 live draws per day, or 20 draws total per day. What is that? 120 new draws a week?

                          Certainly it's confusing adding 3 months of drawings each week to your data base and worse seeing many of your picks come out in the pre-tests.

                          But logically, (probability-wise) more of your picks have better chance of appearing in the pre-tests since there is 5 times as many (96 per week) versus the live draws (24 per week).

                          I wouldn't think such a thing is a well thought out conspiracy, planned and executed by lottery officials, as much as a realization that the more draws they add the more confusing the game becomes to those tracking every number drawn.

                           

                          G

                          My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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                            Posted: October 3, 2016, 1:16 am - IP Logged

                            Being able to predict future possibilities is the epitome of the game whether a week,two weeks or months.. too focus on pre tests will actually cloud your outlook on the game.. prediction skills are key and complex but that is nature..  The cause and effect of procedures the lottery puts in should not be looked at to win or to blame for a loss.. when a player loses there are still hundreds - thousands of other losing combinations.. 5 combinations that show beforehand have no major bearing in all probability.. In a 0-9 game pre tests seem to be a shake up and mix around before the official draw that some players find unfair.. To not have any procedure and regulations in place a 0-9 game would be "3rd gradeish" teacher picks names out the hat for the last 3-4 cupcakes from the bake sale.. IMO players can still win.. Numbers are mean to be broken down and well thought out as we are only playing with a field of 0-9.. how much easier does a player want the game to be? Thanks for your example of a good prediction Soledad.. My theory is being able to accurately predict a future possibility whether it be for the next draw or next few draws is the best hunch or insight you'll get for the game.. and its very possible when taking the time sitting back and tracking.. We should all have threads displaying our workouts if possible and maybe some predictions.. it's also a great way to keep track on the side   

                            "My theory is being able to accurately predict a future possibility whether it be for the next draw or next few draws is the best hunch or insight you'll get for the game.."

                            I play a little 4-minute Keno and usually a 4-spot because the over-all chances of winning are 26%. The probability of any 4-spot is once in every 326 games and with 15 drawings that's less than once every two days. So the question isn't "if" but "when". Timing is much longer with pick-3 games and it may take 3 years or more for a specific three digit number to be drawn. Or it could be in the next drawing.

                            Three years ago I "predicted" 20 pick-3 lines (straight/box) and had at least one box hit in every state/provincial jurisdiction. There was no magical picks, no dreams, no due, over due or frequent picks; it was all mathematical based on the fact a digit 0 through 9 will drawn in each digit position using a simple 2if3 wheel. Regardless of a hit in every jurisdiction, real play would result in a loss though slightly better than the 50% payoff.

                            If each digit in each digit position has the same chance of being drawn in the official drawing, does it matter what the lottery people do with the equipment before and after?

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                              Kentucky
                              United States
                              Member #32652
                              February 14, 2006
                              7322 Posts
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                              Posted: October 3, 2016, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                              Texas instituted the rules for pre-tests and equipment testing to prevent a "Triple Six Fix" as happened in Pennsylvania. I imagine publishing of those pre-tests have to do with the state's Open Records Law. Remember the Pennsylvania fix occurred years before Texas Lottery began.

                              I would think the Tennessee Lottery would have caught their software failure much quicker (preventing doubles and triples to be drawn) had they kept records or published pre-tests.

                              Whether a state has anything to hide or not, consider it the government stance, "The people do not need to know that. People will start asking questions we can't answer (without going into details we don't want to discuss)." Sometimes it's because the people giving the answers do not know what, how and why things work. Definitely some things are kept from the public. That's the way the government works to "protect us." Consider the Tennessee Lottery software fiasco preventing doubles and triples from being drawn. How much sooner might that have been caught had they recorded or published pre-test drawings? (Yeah, I get the big failure was inadequate software testing but recording the pre-test, even as a secondary security measure, would have proved abnormal results).

                              Do the pre-test affect the draws? That appears to be a matter of opinion. When Texas had one P3 game, the night draw, it seemed to be much simpler. Using pre-tests, or not using pre-tests, had little to no effect. You were only accounting for 5 draws (with pre-test). From time to time, one of your picks ends up in a pre-test. You don't think much of it. 

                              Now with 4 draws per day that has become 16 pre-tests per day, plus 4 live draws per day, or 20 draws total per day. What is that? 120 new draws a week?

                              Certainly it's confusing adding 3 months of drawings each week to your data base and worse seeing many of your picks come out in the pre-tests.

                              But logically, (probability-wise) more of your picks have better chance of appearing in the pre-tests since there is 5 times as many (96 per week) versus the live draws (24 per week).

                              I wouldn't think such a thing is a well thought out conspiracy, planned and executed by lottery officials, as much as a realization that the more draws they add the more confusing the game becomes to those tracking every number drawn.

                               

                              G

                              Great to see you posting again, Gary!!!

                              IMO the pre-test create more of a psychological effect; who wants to see the number they played drawn in a test, but with 16 unofficial drawings per day, it's very likely. That still doesn't answer what the conspiracy people believe, "do the tests really prevent a three digit combo from being drawn?".

                                 
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