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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
Ny
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Posted: October 4, 2016, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

From our perspective this seems like a reasonable question. However, it doesn't matter because each flip has the same chance. (1/2) So you're decision in the end would be based on your preconceived notions or ideas on what you would like to see next. Again a gamblers 'fallacy' issue is raised.

In gambling the first 1:2 probability I believe can be most closely related to a coin flip is on roulette table with a european wheel(black and red). To me it's always been instinct after 3 of the same color turns out on the wheel I would believe either the trend will change or we may have a streak (so to either bet same color again or switch.. of course while incorporating other bets sometimes). In my experience more times than not 2-3 of the same color leads to a change or we see a streak. Haven't done much coin flipping but would feel the same instinct if I were to make a bet on a coin flip. The life of a gambler and his instincts.

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation 

Wink

    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
    Ny
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    Posted: October 4, 2016, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

    The same digit hits in the same position 3 times, I'm playing for a fourth. Stick with what's hot. How many times do people end up losing because they thought, "No way that's going to happen again." And then it does!

    Sometimes what the lottery does goes against all logic, and you just have to go with it, even though it may make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    Absolutely. The beauty is you can stay with the trend and also go with a different digit for an additional $1. I've learned in gambling always stick with the trend especially on roulette. Pick 3 and pick 4 are a little different IMO really based on the amount of digits you have to play with. I.e 3 repeats in the same position then that same digit can turn up in the upcoming draw in a different position is the epitome of the game a player needs to watch out for in order to win.

    Creativity..

    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

    Million dollar operation 

    Wink

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
      Dallas, Texas
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      Posted: October 4, 2016, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

      "For that same exact order set to fall the following night you would have (1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10))*(1*((10*10)) or 1 in 1,000,000."

      The odds of the same number occurring in the following night's drawing are 1 in 1000. The odds of a specific number occurring two specific nights in a row is 1 in 1 million.

      "Probability says it's getting impossible to continue to be totally random"

      No, probability just says that the results are increasingly unlikely. Whether or not it's a random result is determined by how the results are obtained, not by what the results are. When you flip perfectly fair coin the results are always random.  Flip it once and there's a 1 in 2 chance of heads and a 1 in 2 chance of tails. Flip it twice and there are four possible results, so your results, regardless of what they are were a 1 in 4 chance. Flip it 100 times and your results are 1 of the 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376 possible results. That's particular result is exceedingly unlikely, but it's still the perfectly random result of probability. And whatever it was, it's no more unlikely than getting heads 100 times in a row.

      "Again we see the limitations of random."

      No, we just see the results of random probability. The only limitation of random probability is that you won't get results that aren't random.

       

      "the experts know exactly how often each possible event should occur during 1,000 revolutions."

      Maybe what you mean is different than what you said, but nobody knows how often each possible event should happen. All they know is that each possible event has the same chance of occurring, the probability that any particular result will occur n times in a thousand, and some other possibilities. There's nothing that's certain to happen.

      "whose purpose is to scramble the odds"

      The odds are determined by the structure of the game, such as picking 1 three digit number out of 1000. The equipment simply ensures that the selection process is random.

      "The machines ... seem to know "

      The machines don't know anything.

      "How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned. "

      Again, maybe it's what you're asking versus what you've written, but there aren't two different actions. The machines don't know whether a drawing is a test drawing, an official drawing to determine the winning numbers, or if somebody broke in and is just playing with the machine. Of course the same is true for the balls. The machine just mixes the balls and pops them out randomly.

      Floyd, I don't think we've said anything different. In my view, we're using different words. I would imagine there is several dozen ways to say........

      "The odds of the same exact order set hitting in back to back draws is 1 in 1 million." (I used 000 because that was "the rabbit out of the hat" when I started the sentence.)

      It is interesting the way we both agree that probability affects random. However, you stop short of saying probability adversely affects random. Your use of the term "increasingly unlikely" has the same tone and meaning as random is limited or if you prefer, adversely affected.

      Someone mentioned Ion Saliu. I believe he touches on this point with his degree of certainty or degree of difficulty for a certain event too occur.

      A roulette wheel works as well as the coin. For example, when using a 38 number wheel, for a number to hit back to back the odds are 1*38^2 (or 1 in 1444).

      Perhaps it's the way we see probability. Your idea of probability reminds me of Flo, the insurance girl. She's just the harmless, friendly business person. Whereas my idea of probability is best described as Harley Quinn. Unpredictable and totally crazy.

      A couple of quick questions, please......

      Do you play Pick 3?

      Have you changed your numbers in the last 11 years?

      Why do you change your numbers?

       

      G

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

        bobby623's avatar - abstract
        San Angelo, Texas
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        Posted: October 4, 2016, 10:25 pm - IP Logged

        I didn't think I would get a straight answer - and I didn't.
        Seems you folks who know all about odds, probability, statistics, algorithms, and the like don't seem to know
        how to function in real world lottery play.
        One final question: have you ever won anything using all that theoretical knowledge?
        I have to wonder why Todd has let this thread survive, given that it is not providing, in my opinion, anything
        that would help players choose the integers that have best chance of being in the next winning permutation/combination.
        But, it's his show.
        Good luck!

          Avatar
          New York, NY
          United States
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          March 23, 2013
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          Posted: October 4, 2016, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

          I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
          One more time!
          When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
          event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
          These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
          To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
          The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
          human notions and definitions of random.
          In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
          The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
          So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
          I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
          I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
          But, maybe I'm missing something.
          You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
          How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.
          Thanks for your interest.

          Theoretically yes. I'm not sure what your queston is. But the thing that I have contested since day one is that everybody and I mean everybody is acting like the numbers do not have any values. That they are just balls. In my experience, any ball with a number on it has a value. I will give example aginst my better judgement. But just to show how interesting I can take this level of values with numbers to be. 9/15/16. We all familiar, ok yes. Repeating first digit 5. 523 529. 523X529÷580=477. (For anybody just wondering why I chose 580. Well just look and think about it for a second). Next # after 523, 074. 74 pair. 477+523=990. 477+529=996. 3 draws after 523, 993. 99 pair. 3 stuck in the middle, 0 got replaced. That's just one way that I can come up with something after. There are multiple others.  This kind of ties in a little as to what and why with your statement as well MM$.

            Avatar
            New York, NY
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            Posted: October 4, 2016, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

            Theoretically yes. I'm not sure what your queston is. But the thing that I have contested since day one is that everybody and I mean everybody is acting like the numbers do not have any values. That they are just balls. In my experience, any ball with a number on it has a value. I will give example aginst my better judgement. But just to show how interesting I can take this level of values with numbers to be. 9/15/16. We all familiar, ok yes. Repeating first digit 5. 523 529. 523X529÷580=477. (For anybody just wondering why I chose 580. Well just look and think about it for a second). Next # after 523, 074. 74 pair. 477+523=990. 477+529=996. 3 draws after 523, 993. 99 pair. 3 stuck in the middle, 0 got replaced. That's just one way that I can come up with something after. There are multiple others.  This kind of ties in a little as to what and why with your statement as well MM$.

            The numbers to need to be replaced. So yes funngames, but it nice to get some money too. With respect. So you don't no where the #'s fit in the moment. Random . Defined . So this is where I agree with you Lucky Loser. With respect.

              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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              Posted: October 4, 2016, 11:33 pm - IP Logged

              I didn't think I would get a straight answer - and I didn't.
              Seems you folks who know all about odds, probability, statistics, algorithms, and the like don't seem to know
              how to function in real world lottery play.
              One final question: have you ever won anything using all that theoretical knowledge?
              I have to wonder why Todd has let this thread survive, given that it is not providing, in my opinion, anything
              that would help players choose the integers that have best chance of being in the next winning permutation/combination.
              But, it's his show.
              Good luck!

              given that it is not providing, in my opinion, anything
              that would help players choose the integers that have best chance of being in the next winning permutation/combination.

              Lol, talk about circular arguments which answers your own questions, yet you don't even realize it. Best chance would be to leave the poor machines alone in the guarded vault under video surveillance. Then when it's time for the official draw, do NOTHING, except to hit the release button after the balls jumble around in the chamber. 

              That best chance becomes null and void when they perform up to 7 or more drawings that DON'T count. They're not only altering the official outcome the way it was meant to be, they are stirring up all kinds of bad energy during those hours spent milling over the machines. 

              Hours before the official draw, someone watches the video feed in very fast forward play and sees no entry into the vault. Why in the world would they still feel the need to spend the next 10 to 12 hours testing a machine, tubes and balls that were locked up overnight? WHY??????????????????????????????????????

              WHY??????????????????????????

                Avatar
                Kentucky
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                February 14, 2006
                7314 Posts
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                Posted: October 5, 2016, 12:02 am - IP Logged

                I've raised the following questions several times but I never get an answer.
                One more time!
                When a game like Pick 3 is being designed, the experts know exactly how often each possible
                event should occur during 1,000 revolutions.
                These same experts then designed a drawing method, i.e., mechanical ball machines, whose purpose is to scramble the odds, probabilities of a game in a box, so to speak, to ensure that the outcome of the mixing vessels is accomplished in a random manner.
                To accomplish that goal the machines were designed to function without a memory. They are designed to operate in a certain manner, including a time when a specific number of balls are allowed to escape the mixing process.
                The machines don't know they are suppose to scan the balls and pick out the ones that fit
                human notions and definitions of random.
                In other words - the machines function in a way that prevents or minimizes accurate predictions.
                The machines, by an uncontrollable action known as CHANCE, seem to know exactly how to frustrate those who think that their outputs should match the design specifications regarding odds and probabilities, as is often stated in numerous forum postings.
                So,  when someone starts telling everyone what should and shouldn't happen during a lottery drawing, without explaining exactly how those events are negotiated in  the chaos of the mixing action in a ball machine, I have to wonder if they really know what they are talking about.
                I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout.
                I've forgotten just about everything I learned about mathematics and related topics, but I have no trouble understanding how lottery machines work.
                But, maybe I'm missing something.
                You folks seem to have all the answers about odds, probabilities, etc, when discussing pre-mix activities.
                How about explaining to us 'clueless' folks how two different actions,  pre-mix and and mixing in a dumb ball machine, can produce the same outcomes, in so far as odds, probabilities, percentages and all of the other mathematical functions are concerned.
                Thanks for your interest.

                Back in the day before state lotteries, there were several different ways to create "random results" and the players could only hope their booking wouldn't cheat them. The thing is, the bookies didn't have to cheat because the payoffs (600 to 1) gave them a 40% edge. As for the design of the pick-3 game, it only takes 8 lines to guarantee a two digit match when the results are three different digits. That coupled with box bets, convinced players they had a real good chance of winning especially when a dime bet could win $60. 

                "I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout."

                I Agree!, but I wouldn't want to see a number I bet 10 bucks on being drawn in the pre-drawing test. My state doesn't record their tests so I guess ignorance is bliss.

                  MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                  Ny
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                  Posted: October 5, 2016, 12:35 am - IP Logged

                  Back in the day before state lotteries, there were several different ways to create "random results" and the players could only hope their booking wouldn't cheat them. The thing is, the bookies didn't have to cheat because the payoffs (600 to 1) gave them a 40% edge. As for the design of the pick-3 game, it only takes 8 lines to guarantee a two digit match when the results are three different digits. That coupled with box bets, convinced players they had a real good chance of winning especially when a dime bet could win $60. 

                  "I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout."

                  I Agree!, but I wouldn't want to see a number I bet 10 bucks on being drawn in the pre-drawing test. My state doesn't record their tests so I guess ignorance is bliss.

                  Back in the day before state lotteries, there were several different ways to create "random results" and the players could only hope their booking wouldn't cheat them. The thing is, the bookies didn't have to cheat because the payoffs (600 to 1) gave them a 40% edge. As for the design of the pick-3 game, it only takes 8 lines to guarantee a two digit match when the results are three different digits. That coupled with box bets, convinced players they had a real good chance of winning especially when a dime bet could win $60. 

                  Thanks for a little history of the game Stack. It wasn't too long ago I gained the knowledge that the 3 numbers was the popular original game before the states took it over and regulated it. If there is always an edge in either game why would lotteries have to cheat? Random is not meant to have a tight grasp on by the player. I think every player needs a good prediction formula from start to finish and just let the lottery do what it does best. Then when you hit make sure you hit em' big.

                  Creativity..

                  " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                  Million dollar operation 

                  Wink

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
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                    Posted: October 5, 2016, 1:23 am - IP Logged

                    Back in the day before state lotteries, there were several different ways to create "random results" and the players could only hope their booking wouldn't cheat them. The thing is, the bookies didn't have to cheat because the payoffs (600 to 1) gave them a 40% edge. As for the design of the pick-3 game, it only takes 8 lines to guarantee a two digit match when the results are three different digits. That coupled with box bets, convinced players they had a real good chance of winning especially when a dime bet could win $60. 

                    Thanks for a little history of the game Stack. It wasn't too long ago I gained the knowledge that the 3 numbers was the popular original game before the states took it over and regulated it. If there is always an edge in either game why would lotteries have to cheat? Random is not meant to have a tight grasp on by the player. I think every player needs a good prediction formula from start to finish and just let the lottery do what it does best. Then when you hit make sure you hit em' big.

                    The second day I played pick-3 my license plate number hit straight and I won $1083. That was easy, but I had no idea which number to play the next day. Did find the "Scientific Number Selector" that was logical, but more of spot play because it didn't have anything to play for weeks and some times months.

                    IMO the systems I've read in the System Forum are too complicated and/or the winning percentages of some aren't worth a wager. I'm just asking for a simple pick-3 system with just a 0.4% chance of winning.

                      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                      Posted: October 5, 2016, 5:58 am - IP Logged

                      Back in the day before state lotteries, there were several different ways to create "random results" and the players could only hope their booking wouldn't cheat them. The thing is, the bookies didn't have to cheat because the payoffs (600 to 1) gave them a 40% edge. As for the design of the pick-3 game, it only takes 8 lines to guarantee a two digit match when the results are three different digits. That coupled with box bets, convinced players they had a real good chance of winning especially when a dime bet could win $60. 

                      "I think it's more likely they are spewing fiction to cover their inability to design a winning lottery workout."

                      I Agree!, but I wouldn't want to see a number I bet 10 bucks on being drawn in the pre-drawing test. My state doesn't record their tests so I guess ignorance is bliss.

                      You mention something I have completely forgotten, getting old. There are 8 combos that will guarantee to hit 2 digits, don't remember hoe to generate on Covermaster. If I recall correctly, there are more than one set of combos. Does anyone know them?

                        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                        Posted: October 5, 2016, 6:30 am - IP Logged

                        You mention something I have completely forgotten, getting old. There are 8 combos that will guarantee to hit 2 digits, don't remember hoe to generate on Covermaster. If I recall correctly, there are more than one set of combos. Does anyone know them?

                        You mention something I have completely forgotten, getting old. There are 8 combos that will guarantee to hit 2 digits, don't remember hoe to generate on Covermaster. If I recall correctly, there are more than one set of combos. Does anyone know them? I found one set. Thanks Stack for bring these up.

                        The eight combinations are 039, 059, 069, 124, 178, 278, 356, 478.

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                          New York, NY
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                          Posted: October 5, 2016, 10:12 am - IP Logged

                          Oh boy those are close digits pairs for ny. Thanks CarBob

                            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                            Posted: October 5, 2016, 11:09 am - IP Logged

                            You mention something I have completely forgotten, getting old. There are 8 combos that will guarantee to hit 2 digits, don't remember hoe to generate on Covermaster. If I recall correctly, there are more than one set of combos. Does anyone know them? I found one set. Thanks Stack for bring these up.

                            The eight combinations are 039, 059, 069, 124, 178, 278, 356, 478.

                            BobP has a set on his website Lottologix.

                            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                              Posted: October 5, 2016, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                              I didn't think I would get a straight answer - and I didn't.
                              Seems you folks who know all about odds, probability, statistics, algorithms, and the like don't seem to know
                              how to function in real world lottery play.
                              One final question: have you ever won anything using all that theoretical knowledge?
                              I have to wonder why Todd has let this thread survive, given that it is not providing, in my opinion, anything
                              that would help players choose the integers that have best chance of being in the next winning permutation/combination.
                              But, it's his show.
                              Good luck!

                              "I have to wonder why Todd has let this thread survive, given that it is not providing, in my opinion, anything
                              that would help players choose the integers that have best chance of being in the next winning permutation/combination."

                              Is that unique to this thread?  Has any discussion of players ideas of winning a game ever had those results?

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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