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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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New York, NY
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Posted: October 1, 2016, 8:54 pm - IP Logged

This is really directed solely at Lucky Loser now.

  1. You are using the word 'tampering' in a very broad sense.
  2. If a number shows up 5 or 6 times in a pre-test, then it is considered to be a 'true-biased event'. Please look that up. Pre-testing is done in the same fashion or style as the official draw is done, i.e. randomly. They change the machines in both official and pre-test draws. That is why they don't affect the overall nature of the game. 
  3. They change the machines that they use, not only in the pre-testing, but the official drawings too. That is not 'tampering' by its definition. Only by your own.
  4. Lottery Braker was speaking in hypothetical terms. Those were his opinions. While they have validity in his mind in how he chooses his numbers, and I'm certain in yours and many others as well, they are just that. Opinions. While opinions do hold some truths to them, they are not considered to be widespread fact. In every 1,000 draws in the pick3 game, you will not see all 1,000 numbers come out straight. Period. Although it was Lottery Braker's assessment that the 1,000 straight combinations will come out faster because of the pre-testing, you nor him nor I can say with 100% certainty that the overall ratio or the odds of the game, i.e. 1:1,000 will be changed or altered. Period. Because they will not be. The odds will stay the same. That is the point that you are missing, frequently. You cannot expect all 1,000 numbers to come out in 1,000 draws. There are multiple reasons for why this is true. And it has to do with more than just pre-testing. 
  5. Whether or not you use every single draw in your tracking or history is not important. That has nothing to do with the natural order or patterns that you will find in random. Perhaps you don't understand this, because mathematicians are just starting to figure this out.
  6. If you want to talk to somebody, I suggest talking to Ion Saliu on this matter. Unfortunately, he was chased and insulted out of here. Just kidding the guy's kind of an a$$, personality wise. But he does speak the truth when it comes to numbers and when it comes to randomness. And he does have systems that go very well beyond tracking every single number that comes up. And they work ok.
  7. What is your system? Because that is what I said. Cheers

That's really all I have to say. And please, I feel like I'm in the Godfather 3 movie. "Just when I get out, they pull me back in." I am not Al Pacino.

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    Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

    Pick a set of numbers for the week track em and see how close you get ..

    the official draws for that week will be like your pre tests (same odds)

    if you do or don't hit within a week it's fair game.. up for debate

    I do that every week MoneyMike$. And if they don't come up. Trust me they will be close, like 1 off. Or you might even see 1 show up in the fours. That's easy. And it just so happens that tonight is when I start with a new set. Last week on the 24th, I said 433 along with no more than a handful of others. 433 showed on the 30th. Straight just like I like it to come out too. Natural order is natural order period.

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      Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

      My problem is the timing. That is how I got so wrapped up in this conversation. Problem is not the numbers. It's the timing. I get very distracted by the fast and slow pace of the numbers. And each draw. And self-doubt also. Though I don't know why. I like other people's systems, especially LottoLaughs, she's a genius. I have no words. Just genius. But sometimes I get too distracted by getting distracted. So even though I come up with them, I don't always win on them. Original has to be original I guess.

      Ask Sam, he's the only one i've ever told directly my system. He knows what I said just now to be true. (Privately please). Though I have no doubt that nothing will change what I say to be true. I do have some doubt about some people here (in general all over this website), and ther side of beliefs versus my own. I don't necessarily believe in jinxes, but I do believe they can interfere with goals etc

        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        Ny
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        Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

        I do that every week MoneyMike$. And if they don't come up. Trust me they will be close, like 1 off. Or you might even see 1 show up in the fours. That's easy. And it just so happens that tonight is when I start with a new set. Last week on the 24th, I said 433 along with no more than a handful of others. 433 showed on the 30th. Straight just like I like it to come out too. Natural order is natural order period.

        Being able to predict future possibilities is the epitome of the game whether a week,two weeks or months.. too focus on pre tests will actually cloud your outlook on the game.. prediction skills are key and complex but that is nature..  The cause and effect of procedures the lottery puts in should not be looked at to win or to blame for a loss.. when a player loses there are still hundreds - thousands of other losing combinations.. 5 combinations that show beforehand have no major bearing in all probability.. In a 0-9 game pre tests seem to be a shake up and mix around before the official draw that some players find unfair.. To not have any procedure and regulations in place a 0-9 game would be "3rd gradeish" teacher picks names out the hat for the last 3-4 cupcakes from the bake sale.. IMO players can still win.. Numbers are mean to be broken down and well thought out as we are only playing with a field of 0-9.. how much easier does a player want the game to be? Thanks for your example of a good prediction Soledad.. My theory is being able to accurately predict a future possibility whether it be for the next draw or next few draws is the best hunch or insight you'll get for the game.. and its very possible when taking the time sitting back and tracking.. We should all have threads displaying our workouts if possible and maybe some predictions.. it's also a great way to keep track on the side   

        Creativity..

        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

        Million dollar operation 

        Wink

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          Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:43 pm - IP Logged

          Being able to predict future possibilities is the epitome of the game whether a week,two weeks or months.. too focus on pre tests will actually cloud your outlook on the game.. prediction skills are key and complex but that is nature..  The cause and effect of procedures the lottery puts in should not be looked at to win or to blame for a loss.. when a player loses there are still hundreds - thousands of other losing combinations.. 5 combinations that show beforehand have no major bearing in all probability.. In a 0-9 game pre tests seem to be a shake up and mix around before the official draw that some players find unfair.. To not have any procedure and regulations in place a 0-9 game would be "3rd gradeish" teacher picks names out the hat for the last 3-4 cupcakes from the bake sale.. IMO players can still win.. Numbers are mean to be broken down and well thought out as we are only playing with a field of 0-9.. how much easier does a player want the game to be? Thanks for your example of a good prediction Soledad.. My theory is being able to accurately predict a future possibility whether it be for the next draw or next few draws is the best hunch or insight you'll get for the game.. and its very possible when taking the time sitting back and tracking.. We should all have threads displaying our workouts if possible and maybe some predictions.. it's also a great way to keep track on the side   

          Thank you MoneyMike$. Exactly. This I really do appreciate. Because it's focus we are all looking for. I agree 100%. I do that every week. They don't always show, yes, but they always come back and start showing again. I feel as long as a system has access to a straight combination, then it should be considered a good system. I'd love to be able to say, "oh Wednesday that's when I should play this number," but that's an extremely rare situation. I'm a little arrogant I suppose because I feel the game can be won on any single draw at any time over and over again. But that's not true. Random is random after all. And flows are flows. Luck is luck, etc. You get my point. I'm working on patience right now and hope I get better. Because I really should be. Ok thanks,

            MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
            Ny
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            Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:56 pm - IP Logged

            My problem is the timing. That is how I got so wrapped up in this conversation. Problem is not the numbers. It's the timing. I get very distracted by the fast and slow pace of the numbers. And each draw. And self-doubt also. Though I don't know why. I like other people's systems, especially LottoLaughs, she's a genius. I have no words. Just genius. But sometimes I get too distracted by getting distracted. So even though I come up with them, I don't always win on them. Original has to be original I guess.

            Ask Sam, he's the only one i've ever told directly my system. He knows what I said just now to be true. (Privately please). Though I have no doubt that nothing will change what I say to be true. I do have some doubt about some people here (in general all over this website), and ther side of beliefs versus my own. I don't necessarily believe in jinxes, but I do believe they can interfere with goals etc

            Yup. Timing is essential it'll get the best of your wins and you'll win when you least expect it is what I've learned over time. Im just perfecting my own methods.  I've come far in learning how to maneuver with the randomness of the game. Distraction is within all of us when coming to the correct prediction for an upcoming draw whether or not some people want to admit it. To shake off distraction will result in the win you are looking for. I too make predictions too early sometimes. Timing is within the combinations. I've learned to make a fresh start with every draw I decide to play and time it correctly while also learning how to keep a number and time that is key. I amazed myself catching the same combination for the 3rd or 4th time once straight almost effortlessly makign that benchmark on 09/26.. this says alot to me..  With that said Sam is one of the only people I keep up with on here that gets to the wins although I dont know exactly how he comes to his combinations with precision and accuracy but I imagine he is fairly complex but knows exactly what he's doing before every draw making it simple for himself. Which is key. Surely a lot of posters seem to have terrible beliefs/outlooks on how the game should be played. If you ain't got it you ain't got it somebodys gotta lose all the time to. 

            Creativity..

            " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

            Million dollar operation 

            Wink

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              Posted: October 1, 2016, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

              Sometimes a win can from a t-shirt you see in the morning that says 1992! Lady luck is lady luck after all

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                Posted: October 1, 2016, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

                Elimination and reduction are the key to everything. Patterns follow patterns. NY is a little on the trendy side. Depends what's going on. Sometimes it fades quickly and sometimes it goes on and on. Budgeting and focus very important. And lastly patience. Patience is the greatest obstacle for any lottery player.

                  MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                  Posted: October 1, 2016, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                  Thank you MoneyMike$. Exactly. This I really do appreciate. Because it's focus we are all looking for. I agree 100%. I do that every week. They don't always show, yes, but they always come back and start showing again. I feel as long as a system has access to a straight combination, then it should be considered a good system. I'd love to be able to say, "oh Wednesday that's when I should play this number," but that's an extremely rare situation. I'm a little arrogant I suppose because I feel the game can be won on any single draw at any time over and over again. But that's not true. Random is random after all. And flows are flows. Luck is luck, etc. You get my point. I'm working on patience right now and hope I get better. Because I really should be. Ok thanks,

                  Hahah no not LL cool L yet. Green laugh

                  I feel as long as a system has access to a straight combination, then it should be considered a good system. I'd love to be able to say, "oh Wednesday that's when I should play this number," but that's an extremely rare situation.

                  That would be a little Ms. Cleo psychic like haha. A prediction is a prediction. I learned awhile ago intuition is key and needs to be built upon or it will be weak. Focus is necessary though we all have distractions. 

                  I'm a little arrogant I suppose because I feel the game can be won on any single draw at any time over and over again.

                  It can. But we'll settle for one at a time and take a break from all of the focusing haha 

                  Creativity..

                  " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                  Million dollar operation 

                  Wink

                    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
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                    Posted: October 1, 2016, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

                    Elimination and reduction are the key to everything. Patterns follow patterns. NY is a little on the trendy side. Depends what's going on. Sometimes it fades quickly and sometimes it goes on and on. Budgeting and focus very important. And lastly patience. Patience is the greatest obstacle for any lottery player.

                    Indeed I agree elimination is key to eliminate any digits from 0-9 surely will give a upper hand at the game. Most players dont incorporate this including me as much as I'd like too. There goes distractions but I've won numerous times before so I know I can win again on any given day it just takes patience and time I've learned this. All key elements. Don't make the game harder then it has to be.

                    Creativity..

                    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                    Million dollar operation 

                    Wink

                      amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                      Posted: October 1, 2016, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

                      Sometimes a win can from a t-shirt you see in the morning that says 1992! Lady luck is lady luck after all

                      I was fuming tonight. Funny you mention this. About 4 or 5 days ago I had a really lucid dream early in the morning. I clearly saw a 51 and 11 on a door. So I played it eve every night in Florida, and stopped playing last night. Lo and behold, tonight 51 showed in the new Florida P-2 game TONIGHT. I especially didn't play because today's Florida mid winner was 15, so I said to myself, heck, what are the odds 51 will show?

                      This is a clear example of disrupting the flow. Yes it may be just a coincidence, but I'm too old to be fooled more than one occasion. If these events were spaced apart somewhat rationally, I would too discount them, but I've lived too long to see so many discrepancies in so many different aspects of natural flow.

                      I've been seriously studying the p-3 since 1991, and I tell you i know things are so way off base today since. 

                      Again, put the machines in a vault with video feed recording the overnight vault and a security guard watching the whole thing. It's not rocket science.

                      With my luck and the pre tests, I'll play 11 for the next two weeks and lose. But I'm playing anyways, maybe play reverse psychology with the universe..ha

                      Cussing Face

                        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                        Posted: October 1, 2016, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

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                          Posted: October 2, 2016, 12:10 am - IP Logged
                          I can't believe that you folks are still trading insults over an issue having no player solution.
                          Years ago, I believed that lotteries were predictable.
                          I spent hours recording draw results, but never found the answers I was looking for.
                          Back then, there was little information available about lottery games.
                          Then computers arrived along with social networks like Lottery Post.
                          As a result, we are all dealing with information overload.
                          Seems everyone now owns a system that can 'predict' the next winning combination, but no proof that they do.
                          However, just about all of the big winners said they won with a Quick Pick.
                          I think it's widely accepted that no man or machine can consistently and accurately know in
                          advance what the next winning numbers will be.
                          Yet, here are several people who know about lotteries claiming that lottery prediction is not only possible but is being obstructed by pre-testing.
                          A suggestion - why don't you folks go to www.txlottery.org and view actual drawings for one week.
                          I believe it won't be long before all of your opinions about lottery predictability will change.
                          You will just have to admit that pre-testing, post-testing, any kind of testing has no effect on lottery machine outputs.
                          It's one complete drawing and no one can know what integers will be in the final or official drawing until the machines completes its job.
                          I accepted reality long ago and no longer believe that lotteries can be predicted.
                          If this is true, what are the alternatives?
                          The answer is - trends.
                          Having rational charts that define game history in various ways provide a solid data base of information that give us some idea of possible future events.
                          It's surprising what you can see when you determine where a game has been, and the many clues that help us understand where it might be headed.
                          All my workouts do this and I often make good choices about what could happen next.
                          I don't always win but I'm winning often enough to make it all the work worthwhile.
                          In my humble opinion, you folks need to 'bite the bullet' and accept the fact that predicting lottery  results is a myth, and start doing things using the information that is available.
                          There many ways to track lottery results.
                          You might have to burn some midnight oil, travel down some dead end roads, but solutions are possible.
                          I found them, and, according one member, I'm clueless.
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                            Posted: October 2, 2016, 12:24 am - IP Logged

                            I thought amber123's last post was very nice. Beautiful guitar. There is one thing I can say with 100% certainty for sure. And that is amber123 sure can throw a diss. Lol. I'm glad it wasn't at me. Lol

                              grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                              Winning makes me smile.
                              bel air maryland
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                              Posted: October 2, 2016, 12:33 am - IP Logged

                              "The last thing I want to read "

                              Well, it seems pretty clear that you don't always bother to read things. OTOH it seems clear that responding is a little ray of sunshine in your sorry existence. Why else would you bother when you've said several times that you're done, and you don't eve have anything you're actually answering?

                               

                              "So there is no reason it couldn't happen"

                              There's also no reason you couldn't win PB this weekend, even if you buy just one ticket and play 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. That doesn't mean I can't say with an extremely high degree of confidence that it won't happen.

                              "Show the math."

                              You mean you don't already know what it is? You've got no idea what the probability of using the same 4 machines and 4 ball sets to do 8 consecutive drawings, but want to know how I can be sure of the improbability of it? And you've got no clue about the actual probability of one particular digit coming up in 8 consecutive drawings, but you think you've got a valid basis to compare that to the probability of results in the testing? I trust you can at least figure out the probability for drawing 4 or 5 balls from one single machine and getting the same ball each time during the tests.

                              I'll show you the math, but first give us an idea if you've even got a reasonable feeling for things and answer 2 simple questions. Is it more likely for a pick 4 drawing to have a digit that was in the previous drawing or to not have a digit that was in the previous drawing? Is it probable that a specific digit will be drawn, somewhat improbable, or extremely improbable?

                              "But it's NOT considered random in the pre-test."

                              You don't know what they're assuming unless they've told you. All you know is that they've got a policy of swapping out equipment if the same ball is selected too many times.

                              "They are trying to take away or alter the the natural random process."

                              How does using different equipment "alter the the natural random process"?

                               

                              "Would you bet on the next flip and which would you bet H/T?"

                              It wouldn't matter what I bet, because if its a fair coin heads and tails always have the same probability of .5000000000000000000 (ignoring the small chance of lading on edge. As I've told Amber, that has been demonstrated time and time again by actually flipping a coin, as well as by various other tests with only two possible outcomes. It doesn't matter what the past results are. The coin doesn't know what th elast results are and there's no magical force that influences the outcome.

                              "If you don't believe the pre-draws interrupt Random"

                              Nobody here has magical powers, either. Nobody here knows exactly why the lotteries chose the exact protocols they did, except in general terms. What those of us who actually understand probability do know is that testing can't "interrupt" random. Selecting balls from the machine works exactly the same way whether it's for a test or for the official drawing that determines the winning numbers.

                              "explain why the pre-tests were not conducted prior to 2008?"

                              Powerball has been doing tests since at least October 2002.

                               

                              "Most randomized sequences do not have an easily recognizable pattern"

                              It's easy for all of us to fall into part of the same trap. People tend to think of patterns in terms of some find of repetition, but every result has a distinctive pattern.

                              "Yet any one specific arbitrary sequence has exactly the same chance of occurring as any other."

                              As near as I can tell a lot of people here don't understand that at all. They look at a particular string of events and attach an arbitrary significance to it, such as 6 heads in a row, and seem to have absolutely have no clue that it's got exactly the same probability as any other possible result.

                               

                              "How is it possible to avoid countering person's A's assessment to go after person B's when they're both saying the same thing?"

                              If you all were saying exactly the same thing there wouldn't be any point in countering each particular instance of it, would there?  You and particularly Amber just have more of a knack for saying things that are utterly ridiculous or downright stupid. grwurston doesn't seem to have any idea of what the relative probabilities of different events are, but I don't recall seeing them make a ridiculous claim that a perfectly fair coin suddenly becomes unfair and develops a magical preference because of some particular  string of results.

                               All you know is that they've got a policy of swapping out equipment if the same ball is selected too many times.

                              That is exactly what they do in the pre-tests. It's in their procedures and has already been posted here on LP. The question I have been asking through out this thread which absolutely no one has answered is, WHY do they do it??? What are they trying to cause or prevent???

                              They have to make sure the machines are working properly? Five times??? More than that in some states???  That is pure 100% BSThe machines and balls are locked up under 24-7-365 surveillance. The balls are weighed and measured before and after each drawing to make sure they are within spec. There has to be at least 2 people present just to get into the room where they are kept. And then once the room is unlocked, every thing is video taped. How in the world is anyone going to be able to tamper with them?

                              And with all that security in place, if the same number comes up more than 4 times, they think there is something wrong with the equipment and they have to remove it???  gimme a break/

                              BS  ROFL   Green laugh

                              "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                              The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                              Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                                 
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