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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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bobby623's avatar - abstract
San Angelo, Texas
United States
Member #1097
January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
Offline
Posted: October 24, 2016, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

It amazes how you math folks always use the exceptions to try and prove your beliefs.
The Virginia and Mass incidents were pulled off by folks who went to great lengths and expense over a long period of time.
Everyday lottery gamblers don't have the smarts and financial resources to take advantage of the weaknesses of a lottery game, even if they
know of the possibilities.
Who knows, maybe there are groups of people who are currently exploiting or trying to exploit other games that will one day make headlines.
You ask a good question, Lucky.
How come those folks haven't won a major jackpot?
It's said that math is math. It would follow then that those folks who engineered the Virginia and Mass winnings using complicated math would have directed their resources to winning MM or PB, or any of the state Pick 6 games having  huge jackpots.
You folks talk about winning Pick 3/4 games like you can get a winning ticket anytime you want, but small prizes aren't worth the effort.
Maybe one day one of you folks will post a winning ticket and explain how you did it.
Oh, I forgot. Explaining the 'how to' is a no no. There are folks lurking in these Forum rooms just waiting to exploit your methods.
What a load of bull crap.
Winning a lottery game is hard.
No one expects to win every drawing, but, some folks do manage to win - now and then - without using the power of mathematics.
I think I've demonstrated that I'm one of them.
The correct choices are always present in my workout. Unfortunately, I don't always recognize them.
But, there's another opportunity tomorrow.
I'm really looking forward to KY Floyd's next post!!!

    Avatar
    New York, NY
    United States
    Member #140634
    March 23, 2013
    2983 Posts
    Online
    Posted: October 24, 2016, 9:43 pm - IP Logged

    Hey bobby,

    Yes winning a lottery game is hard. It is not easy. I play for fun for the most part. But part of me likes more of a challenge. Using numbers to me is a challenge. Maybe it's all the crap that I had to go through in school. Whatever the reason, that's just how I do things. And I do post all the time how I do it. I don't feel the need to post a winning ticket. While I have fun here on LP and have 'met' interesting people, I don't feel any need to prove or validate what I say or do. But over the past 3 years or so I have been here, yes I have come up with many winning numbers. Whether it's win4 or pick3. The challenge I like is picking the number before. Not holding the number all year. That's the challenge for me. I have fun with it. And I have won many many times on playing just one number once. Call it what you want. It makes no difference to me. Of course you don't need math to win, no one is saying that you must use math. Shoot you could dream the number, which I have also. And yes this year I have encountered several annoying people who insist on saying that the lottery is listening to the conversations on this website and not to post how you come up with numbers etc etc. Those people are strange to me. I have no worries about posting how I come up with numbers. I do not use the same methods all the time. But My Methods do produce results. And there's no way to stop that imo. Because I have watched them for years before I even told anybody. Tons of people show how they come up with numbers here. And I appreciate all of that. People have told me they made hundreds of dollars listening to me. Thats all good. The door swings both ways you know. Of course you win you lose. That's Just the way it is. One time I prayed that my number would come out so I could help a dear friend pay her electric bill, and lo and behold 025 did come out. $1600. I kept $400. I still used math to get it though. Believe is a strong word. It means a lot. As long as you do.

      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
      Texas
      United States
      Member #86154
      January 30, 2010
      1649 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: October 24, 2016, 10:20 pm - IP Logged

      It amazes how you math folks always use the exceptions to try and prove your beliefs.
      The Virginia and Mass incidents were pulled off by folks who went to great lengths and expense over a long period of time.
      Everyday lottery gamblers don't have the smarts and financial resources to take advantage of the weaknesses of a lottery game, even if they
      know of the possibilities.
      Who knows, maybe there are groups of people who are currently exploiting or trying to exploit other games that will one day make headlines.
      You ask a good question, Lucky.
      How come those folks haven't won a major jackpot?
      It's said that math is math. It would follow then that those folks who engineered the Virginia and Mass winnings using complicated math would have directed their resources to winning MM or PB, or any of the state Pick 6 games having  huge jackpots.
      You folks talk about winning Pick 3/4 games like you can get a winning ticket anytime you want, but small prizes aren't worth the effort.
      Maybe one day one of you folks will post a winning ticket and explain how you did it.
      Oh, I forgot. Explaining the 'how to' is a no no. There are folks lurking in these Forum rooms just waiting to exploit your methods.
      What a load of bull crap.
      Winning a lottery game is hard.
      No one expects to win every drawing, but, some folks do manage to win - now and then - without using the power of mathematics.
      I think I've demonstrated that I'm one of them.
      The correct choices are always present in my workout. Unfortunately, I don't always recognize them.
      But, there's another opportunity tomorrow.
      I'm really looking forward to KY Floyd's next post!!!

      It amazes how you math folks always use the exceptions to try and prove your beliefs.
      The Virginia and Mass incidents were pulled off by folks who went to great lengths and expense over a long period of time.

      Wrong. This wasn't an exception but, rather an example with proof that the compilation of math, finances, and resources netted this group consistent lower tier wins over time. Ultimately, they banked enough money then figured out how to win the entire jackpot in a single shot...and went on to do just that. Instead of you simply accepting what is fact and was proven, you'd rather attempt to downplay others' math capabilities while propping up your substitution method. If your power of substitution method can seemingly work, then good math skills can certainly work because these games are based around math...not some substitution method. Yes, what they accomplished took time and lots of money, both of which they actually had as they FOUND INVESTORS TO FRONT THE MONEY NEEDED. Guess what? They had to prove to their investors that they could do this via math and not luck or power of substitution....and they did.

      You folks talk about winning Pick 3/4 games like you can get a winning ticket anytime you want, but small prizes aren't worth the effort.

      Not sure who you're referring to but, I've championed Pick 3/4 from day one 'cause I know it can be mastered and I've always been more than willing to accept smaller yet consistent profits as opposed to chasing a jackpot. Pick 4 money is great with me, and, it's not about winning every time or anytime you want. It's about knowing that you've mathematically worked things to your favor which allows you to stay ahead. 

      Maybe one day one of you folks will post a winning ticket and explain how you did it.

      Yeah, just like you recently did. You posted a ticket and didn't explain one iota of a substitution method.

      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

      #lotto-4-a-living

        bobby623's avatar - abstract
        San Angelo, Texas
        United States
        Member #1097
        January 31, 2003
        1394 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 24, 2016, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

        One thing for sure - there are many opinions about how to win.
        I revealed part of my methods in an earlier post in response to KY Floyd.
        This particular thread has about run its course, as far as I'm concerned.
        I participated, perhaps more than I should have, to demonstrate that you (generic) can win without the use
        of complicated mathematics, magic, mumbo jumbo and luck.
        I think I made my point.
        Winning any prize should be celebrated, regardless of the method used.
        So, I wish you the best in your future attempts to gain a share of the millions of dollars the Texas lottery is trying
        to give away every day, except Sunday.

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7318 Posts
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          Posted: October 25, 2016, 12:33 am - IP Logged

          "I don't have any magical forces guiding my lottery activities. "

          Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results. Maybe you can't wrap your head around it, but the only way that analyzing past results can increase your chances is if those past results have some kind of affect on future results. Unless perhaps you think there's some magic fairy that can control lottery results and occasionally rewards your hard work.

          "all the theoretical stuff you and others like you are spreading just demonstrates that you believe there is a mathematical
          solution to winning a lottery."

          Are you really that confused? There is no mathematical solution to winning the lottery. It's a random event, period.

          "Do you ever consider that the bad advice you are spreading may be causing folks to spend money on losing methods??"

          You can't fix stupid, but I'm willing to try and educate people. I may not be perfect at explaining things, but your belief that I've suggested that probability theory (and please tell me you're not dumb enough to say "but it's just a theory") has to be a result of your own confusion. Reread what I wrote above if you still don't get it. And have you ever considered that your claim about winning a  whopping $200 bucks  as a result of your magical math may cause folks to spend money on losing methods?

           

          "Skill is required to win on small games"

          That's one of the stupidest things I've seen here. You honestly believe that in a game with odds as low as 1 in 1000 or 1in 10,000 can't be won through simple probability and luck? Have you ever even heard of quick picks?

          "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

          Nobody can control future result without cheating, but they can use past results to form a system. Most of the real players acknowledge they are making conditional bets that are not much different than betting on roulette numbers.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19830 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: October 25, 2016, 4:50 am - IP Logged

            "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

            Nobody can control future result without cheating, but they can use past results to form a system. Most of the real players acknowledge they are making conditional bets that are not much different than betting on roulette numbers.

            "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

            If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing at LP.  Just look at the many LP posts labeled "My system is working", I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Sunglasses's avatar - nicebear
              Zaperlopopotam
              Belgium
              Member #173932
              March 26, 2016
              971 Posts
              Online
              Posted: October 25, 2016, 7:58 am - IP Logged

              "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

              If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing at LP.  Just look at the many LP posts labeled "My system is working", I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict.

              Showing winning systems here and posting predictions is not paid. Websites went online and offline.

              .
                Avatar
                New York, NY
                United States
                Member #140634
                March 23, 2013
                2983 Posts
                Online
                Posted: October 25, 2016, 9:03 am - IP Logged

                "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

                If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing at LP.  Just look at the many LP posts labeled "My system is working", I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict.

                Good point. I don't feel the point of playing is to prove to others that you can pick a winning combo. It's to win money. So if you win, hats off for sure. And if you don't, well so be it. You're in good company. Anyways, stats are fun, but real is real.

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19830 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: October 25, 2016, 11:12 am - IP Logged

                  Showing winning systems here and posting predictions is not paid. Websites went online and offline.

                  Many such websites have started, failed and disappeared over the years, some even advertised at LP when they first started.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
                    United States
                    Member #32652
                    February 14, 2006
                    7318 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 25, 2016, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

                    "Then feel free to explain how the future results you're betting on are controlled by the past results."

                    If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing at LP.  Just look at the many LP posts labeled "My system is working", I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict.

                    "If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing at LP."

                    I believe Floyd was talking about future results not being controlled by past results as if somebody here believes one drawing has a physical effect on the next drawing or the next 100. As for using past results, "successfully" is the key word.

                    We can use probability to get a good idea of what to expect in the next 100 drawings or we can look at the past results and see about the same thing. Some digits in each digit position will be drawn 10 times, less than 10, or more than 10. The object is to use the digits that will be drawn more than 10 times and good luck deciding which digits.

                    But at the end of the day, players are making conditional bets and if even they believe they are making an "educated" guess, it's all the same.

                      Avatar

                      United States
                      Member #116344
                      September 8, 2011
                      3928 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: October 25, 2016, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

                      It amazes how you math folks always use the exceptions to try and prove your beliefs.
                      The Virginia and Mass incidents were pulled off by folks who went to great lengths and expense over a long period of time.
                      Everyday lottery gamblers don't have the smarts and financial resources to take advantage of the weaknesses of a lottery game, even if they
                      know of the possibilities.
                      Who knows, maybe there are groups of people who are currently exploiting or trying to exploit other games that will one day make headlines.
                      You ask a good question, Lucky.
                      How come those folks haven't won a major jackpot?
                      It's said that math is math. It would follow then that those folks who engineered the Virginia and Mass winnings using complicated math would have directed their resources to winning MM or PB, or any of the state Pick 6 games having  huge jackpots.
                      You folks talk about winning Pick 3/4 games like you can get a winning ticket anytime you want, but small prizes aren't worth the effort.
                      Maybe one day one of you folks will post a winning ticket and explain how you did it.
                      Oh, I forgot. Explaining the 'how to' is a no no. There are folks lurking in these Forum rooms just waiting to exploit your methods.
                      What a load of bull crap.
                      Winning a lottery game is hard.
                      No one expects to win every drawing, but, some folks do manage to win - now and then - without using the power of mathematics.
                      I think I've demonstrated that I'm one of them.
                      The correct choices are always present in my workout. Unfortunately, I don't always recognize them.
                      But, there's another opportunity tomorrow.
                      I'm really looking forward to KY Floyd's next post!!!

                      First of all, maths is not a belief.  Maths concepts are theories, theories are fact until disapprove. The irony is the  use of ' substitution' which is a mathematical term, yet you negate the power of mathematics. Maths is everything in our daily routine, you may not recognize it, but  it's there. Lets take the math equation E=MC2, 

                      to the average person, is just a 'mumbo jumbo', forgetting this theory has shaped our lives. Probability is a simple math concept, a powerful tool in realm of statistics. Some understands its application,to others is a foreign concept. Every game starts with a matrix and regulations, probability dictates the outcome, is that simple!.   A State could start Pick 3 game with just 8 digits (01234567), with 'draw without replacement' (regulations), then the prior ratio of the assumed game will be 1/336(this will not change for every draw). Your understanding of the probability 1/336 or 1/1000(0123456789)will make a difference. I remember referring some good READ on topics of randomness, univariate, multivariate, prediction interval, and was shocked by members comments like ' too abstract', shocked because these members seems to be good in programming.

                        Avatar
                        NY
                        United States
                        Member #23835
                        October 16, 2005
                        3474 Posts
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                        Posted: October 28, 2016, 2:01 am - IP Logged

                        "If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing"

                        I don't care whether or not anybody explains what they're doing. I'd just like to see some of the people claiming that analyzing past results enables them to pick future winners would explain why that works. As I said previously, the only way that analysis of any kind (including "substitution") could allow successful prediction of future results is if the past results have some kind of affect on the future results.

                        "I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict."

                        I don't doubt that some people occasionally have lucky streaks, but that's just one of the perfectly natural results of random probability. It's no different than rolling a die. If you roll a die 6 times at least one of the 6 possible results will probably turn up more than once. The obvious corollary is that at least one of the possible results probably won't occur even once. And it's just the same when people play pick 3 or pick 4. Just as 1000 drawings will produce some of the 1000 possible results more than once (with some not turning up even once), some players will win more than 1 out of 1000 or 1 out of 10,000 times simply as a result of random probability. Of course they'll be almost perfectly balanced out by players who win less than 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000 times.

                         

                        "Most of the real players acknowledge they are making conditional bets"

                        They may acknowledge it, but I've got a perception that most don't actually understand it. Wheels are the most obvious example. The supposed improvement in odds of any given wheel is always offset by the limited chance that the conditions of the wheel will be met. If you only play birthday numbers for the 5  white balls in PB each play gives you a 1 in 169,911 of getting all 5 right if all of the winning numbers are birthday numbers, but the chances that all of the numbers will be birthday numbers is only 1 in 66.14. That gives you a 1 in 66.14 chance of having a 1 in 169,911 chance of getting  all 5 numbers right, for an overall chance of 1 in 11,238,513, exactly the odds of picking the correct 5 out of all 69. Of course that comes back to the delusion that not all 69 balls have the same chance of being drawn, and that you can magically predict the more likely numbers based on previous results.

                          bobby623's avatar - abstract
                          San Angelo, Texas
                          United States
                          Member #1097
                          January 31, 2003
                          1394 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: October 28, 2016, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

                          "If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing"

                          I don't care whether or not anybody explains what they're doing. I'd just like to see some of the people claiming that analyzing past results enables them to pick future winners would explain why that works. As I said previously, the only way that analysis of any kind (including "substitution") could allow successful prediction of future results is if the past results have some kind of affect on the future results.

                          "I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict."

                          I don't doubt that some people occasionally have lucky streaks, but that's just one of the perfectly natural results of random probability. It's no different than rolling a die. If you roll a die 6 times at least one of the 6 possible results will probably turn up more than once. The obvious corollary is that at least one of the possible results probably won't occur even once. And it's just the same when people play pick 3 or pick 4. Just as 1000 drawings will produce some of the 1000 possible results more than once (with some not turning up even once), some players will win more than 1 out of 1000 or 1 out of 10,000 times simply as a result of random probability. Of course they'll be almost perfectly balanced out by players who win less than 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000 times.

                           

                          "Most of the real players acknowledge they are making conditional bets"

                          They may acknowledge it, but I've got a perception that most don't actually understand it. Wheels are the most obvious example. The supposed improvement in odds of any given wheel is always offset by the limited chance that the conditions of the wheel will be met. If you only play birthday numbers for the 5  white balls in PB each play gives you a 1 in 169,911 of getting all 5 right if all of the winning numbers are birthday numbers, but the chances that all of the numbers will be birthday numbers is only 1 in 66.14. That gives you a 1 in 66.14 chance of having a 1 in 169,911 chance of getting  all 5 numbers right, for an overall chance of 1 in 11,238,513, exactly the odds of picking the correct 5 out of all 69. Of course that comes back to the delusion that not all 69 balls have the same chance of being drawn, and that you can magically predict the more likely numbers based on previous results.


                          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/307879

                          I guess I'm just lucky!
                          When you are arranging and rearranging cubes according to a specific plan, there's a chance you could
                          place the winners at the end of the columns!

                          Have a good day!!

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                            United States
                            Member #4924
                            June 3, 2004
                            5912 Posts
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                            Posted: October 28, 2016, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

                            In the Florida Pick 5, there are 2 7-digit stings, where 5/7 digits have not been drawn. All of those who claim the past has no effect on future draws. Do any of you believe that 5 digits will never be drawn from those 2 7-digit strings?

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19830 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: October 28, 2016, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

                              In the Florida Pick 5, there are 2 7-digit stings, where 5/7 digits have not been drawn. All of those who claim the past has no effect on future draws. Do any of you believe that 5 digits will never be drawn from those 2 7-digit strings?

                              There are probably more 5 digits strings that have never been drawn but that doesn't mean none of those 5/5 will ever happen.  I would be surprised if the next drawing isn't a 5/5 that never came up before.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking       

                                 
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