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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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Posted: October 28, 2016, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

"If anyone does really use past results to predict future results successfully, don't expect them to spend time trying to explain what they are doing"

I don't care whether or not anybody explains what they're doing. I'd just like to see some of the people claiming that analyzing past results enables them to pick future winners would explain why that works. As I said previously, the only way that analysis of any kind (including "substitution") could allow successful prediction of future results is if the past results have some kind of affect on the future results.

"I have yet to see anyone posting such a thread to have a prediction stat showing they have ever done better than the overall average for the games they predict."

I don't doubt that some people occasionally have lucky streaks, but that's just one of the perfectly natural results of random probability. It's no different than rolling a die. If you roll a die 6 times at least one of the 6 possible results will probably turn up more than once. The obvious corollary is that at least one of the possible results probably won't occur even once. And it's just the same when people play pick 3 or pick 4. Just as 1000 drawings will produce some of the 1000 possible results more than once (with some not turning up even once), some players will win more than 1 out of 1000 or 1 out of 10,000 times simply as a result of random probability. Of course they'll be almost perfectly balanced out by players who win less than 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000 times.

 

"Most of the real players acknowledge they are making conditional bets"

They may acknowledge it, but I've got a perception that most don't actually understand it. Wheels are the most obvious example. The supposed improvement in odds of any given wheel is always offset by the limited chance that the conditions of the wheel will be met. If you only play birthday numbers for the 5  white balls in PB each play gives you a 1 in 169,911 of getting all 5 right if all of the winning numbers are birthday numbers, but the chances that all of the numbers will be birthday numbers is only 1 in 66.14. That gives you a 1 in 66.14 chance of having a 1 in 169,911 chance of getting  all 5 numbers right, for an overall chance of 1 in 11,238,513, exactly the odds of picking the correct 5 out of all 69. Of course that comes back to the delusion that not all 69 balls have the same chance of being drawn, and that you can magically predict the more likely numbers based on previous results.

"They may acknowledge it, but I've got a perception that most don't actually understand it."

It's probably obvious to everybody else by acknowledging it's a conditional bet, players do understand it. When Roulette players puts a bet on the "Red" and the number is "Black" they understand why the dealer takes their bet.

"Wheels are the most obvious example. The supposed improvement in odds of any given wheel is always offset by the limited chance that the conditions of the wheel will be met."

Wrong, wheel players set simple conditions like if 3 or more of the 15 numbers they picked are drawn, they get at least one 3 number match. With PB and MM, knowing the astronomical chances apparently means nothing because people keep on playing. And the chances of 15 QPs winning something or a 15 line wheel winning something are exactly the same. How is "supposed improvement of odds" even related to conditional betting?

"Of course that comes back to the delusion that not all 69 balls have the same chance of being drawn, and that you can magically predict the more likely numbers based on previous results."

Why does it matter why or how a player chooses their numbers when the bet is conditional?

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    Posted: October 29, 2016, 9:02 pm - IP Logged

    There are two sides to this coin. One is that mathematical laws and formulae support the analytical perspective. The other is that the lottery is completely random and nothing you do can improve your chances. If one needs to ask why something works, well it works based on the laws of mathematics. The values of the numbers represent foundations of math; numbers. That is what is needed to comprehend. Numbers. 

    I have systems that work. But updating your data file with each new number that is drawn makes things confusing.The same system doesn't work every time. Sometimes, 1 from the past will all of a sudden come up to the present while all the others are left behind. I have no answer for why this is. But the reason I know that my system is good is because of the order that the number comes up as. Or how many times I see it in my system etc. Or where a connection is made between the numbers of the present and the numbers of my system. If 2 show, and are found in the exact same place etc in my formula, then I know there is a connection somehow. It's just making that connection is the hard part to understand. And with so many numbers calculated, who's to say when and where.

      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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      Posted: October 30, 2016, 11:53 am - IP Logged

      There are two sides to this coin. One is that mathematical laws and formulae support the analytical perspective. The other is that the lottery is completely random and nothing you do can improve your chances. If one needs to ask why something works, well it works based on the laws of mathematics. The values of the numbers represent foundations of math; numbers. That is what is needed to comprehend. Numbers. 

      I have systems that work. But updating your data file with each new number that is drawn makes things confusing.The same system doesn't work every time. Sometimes, 1 from the past will all of a sudden come up to the present while all the others are left behind. I have no answer for why this is. But the reason I know that my system is good is because of the order that the number comes up as. Or how many times I see it in my system etc. Or where a connection is made between the numbers of the present and the numbers of my system. If 2 show, and are found in the exact same place etc in my formula, then I know there is a connection somehow. It's just making that connection is the hard part to understand. And with so many numbers calculated, who's to say when and where.

      The other is that the lottery is completely random

      Okay, just purely for fun and validation, what is the definition of random? I'd like to compare and contrast the definition with what the lotteries do.

       

      nothing you do can improve your chances.

      I'll respectfully disagree with you on this but, it's limited to what game is being played. Due to the matrix, the average player can do nothing to 'strategically' improve their chances with the jackpot-type games. But, as illustrated elsewhere, with the proper mathematics, ticket marking-printing resources, and funding, the player(s) can accomplish nearly anything. Very costly but, doable. I'm not talking about forming just your average lottery pool where ten players each drop $100 on tickets, either. While that has happened, it was still luck of the draw which is great. Those MIT students, though, did it with intent and surety based on all the factors outlined above. 

      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

      #lotto-4-a-living

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        Posted: October 30, 2016, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

        Ok ha. I put that up there for you, because we argued a little bit. I had a feeling you would be curious about me saying this. lol

        Anyhoo, look I believe in using laws and formulas to get winning numbers. I do it all the time. Today I played 519 in NY. it was 619. 

        AND the win 4 number, I won't even talk about it. But I can tell you from that, that I do know of another one that will drop this week. I just don't know when etc.

        I believe that anyone who says that the balls are just balls, believe in that old mystical stuff as well as superstition. I never said the balls were just balls. That's why they do all those pre-tests. Because they understand that math laws follow the patterns of the balls once you put values of numbers on them. This is true. The only way you could say it's completely random, is if the balls were blank I guess. it's just numbers are easier for all players to follow and understand. Because they relate to math. 

        I was stating in the above post that those are the two sides to this question. That is the dividing line. One yes and one no. Of course there are disagreements. On the side of no, I suppose one could say that jackpots are won more with quick picks than if one were to choose their own. On the yes side, I suppose one could say well you'll always see a 6 or a 3 around a 0, etc etc. I just used that but you get my point. 

        The random part to me is when they come out and in what order. That to me is random, otherwise I would've conquered NY in less than a year.

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          Posted: October 30, 2016, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

          The hard part I guess to understand is the difference between looking at something you can see vs. looking at something you haven't seen yet. You're (general) always looking in the past to show you something that will or may or can occur in the future after the present. But one can not say with 100% certainty. And humans in general over their lucky entire existence have always looked at what they see because they can define what they see. One doesn't automatically look at or for what one doesn't see because they do not know what it is. It's not human nature to do that. Because they can't define it. We're all for the most part creatures of habit. It's just in our nature to understand things that way.

            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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            Posted: October 30, 2016, 2:34 pm - IP Logged

            The hard part I guess to understand is the difference between looking at something you can see vs. looking at something you haven't seen yet. You're (general) always looking in the past to show you something that will or may or can occur in the future after the present. But one can not say with 100% certainty. And humans in general over their lucky entire existence have always looked at what they see because they can define what they see. One doesn't automatically look at or for what one doesn't see because they do not know what it is. It's not human nature to do that. Because they can't define it. We're all for the most part creatures of habit. It's just in our nature to understand things that way.

            Soledad , have you ever followed the strings of a cash 3or play 4 lottery. Lets use string 123456 as an example. In the last 100 draws one of those digits have appeared. For that string to break, 3 of the missing digits have to appear. Look very close at the draws for NY, how many draws don't reach 100. Does that not prove the draws are not Random? If you see that string around 100 skips, start betting on the missing 4 digits. Ny Mid 356789 is at 124 skips in which one of those digits have been drawn, it is now at 125. 619 was the mid draw. The max skip is 131.

            356789
            0
            190
            12
            131
            28.62
            125
              Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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              Posted: October 30, 2016, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

              Ok ha. I put that up there for you, because we argued a little bit. I had a feeling you would be curious about me saying this. lol

              Anyhoo, look I believe in using laws and formulas to get winning numbers. I do it all the time. Today I played 519 in NY. it was 619. 

              AND the win 4 number, I won't even talk about it. But I can tell you from that, that I do know of another one that will drop this week. I just don't know when etc.

              I believe that anyone who says that the balls are just balls, believe in that old mystical stuff as well as superstition. I never said the balls were just balls. That's why they do all those pre-tests. Because they understand that math laws follow the patterns of the balls once you put values of numbers on them. This is true. The only way you could say it's completely random, is if the balls were blank I guess. it's just numbers are easier for all players to follow and understand. Because they relate to math. 

              I was stating in the above post that those are the two sides to this question. That is the dividing line. One yes and one no. Of course there are disagreements. On the side of no, I suppose one could say that jackpots are won more with quick picks than if one were to choose their own. On the yes side, I suppose one could say well you'll always see a 6 or a 3 around a 0, etc etc. I just used that but you get my point. 

              The random part to me is when they come out and in what order. That to me is random, otherwise I would've conquered NY in less than a year.

              Today I played 519 in NY. it was 619

              Okay, this is good if you actually played the number but, there's a lack of evidence to validate your playing it...and it's that you aren't talking about how you matched REAR PAIRS. New York pays for PAIRS. Did you play the PAIRS OPTION? If not, SHAME ON YOU! Also, New York has their CLOSE ENOUGH option where you can be ONE NUMBER OFF...and you were one number off with your (5) in position #1. Did you mark the CLOSE ENOUGH option? If not, SHAME ON YOU! If you're gonna be a serious player, the way you convey yourself to be, then you must be ready and willing to cover all matching possibilities. Otherwise, you miss out on $$$$, my friend...and it looks like you did.

              Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

              There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

              #lotto-4-a-living

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                Posted: October 30, 2016, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

                "Validate"

                Dude are you kidding me? Validate? I posted on The NY Dream Team run by Mrsd446 this morning. 519. I also said that the 83 pair should show. And it did 833 tonight. But I wasn't expecting a double 3 after 337. I said 227 days ago. 337 came. I also said today before the evening draw that I saw 277 in p4. Tonight's pick 4 number was 5727. I played 7792. You must be kidding. I'm like that day to day. Yes I know I play and win on pairs a lot. But when I play 20 numbers or so. Sometimes I just leave the extra dollar or two alone and let it ride. Lol like the movie. Oh I know about all those "winning" options. I have won all those ways in the past. I miss out on $$$ all the time. I played both winning numbers that came up today in PA straight. 836 and 275. Straight. Come on I'm trying here. Nobody ever helped me understand numbers. I come up with this stuff on my own. And it can be very confusing. If you can't admit that, then I don't know what you're saying or where you're coming from. Validate? Are you serious?

                And CarBob Thank you for your help. Much appreciated

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                  Posted: October 30, 2016, 9:40 pm - IP Logged

                  I posted a stacks like this 

                  1  0   7

                  2       8

                  6       9

                  9

                  And I said 83 pair in the morning.

                  Nighttime I played only 2 numbers 275 and 7792.

                  And the 572 I put up first thing in the morning for both PA and NY. And it showed up in PA reversed straight. Everybody on the Dream Team knows I put those 6 numbers up for the whole week for both NY and PA. And I always play them straight and reversed straight if and when I play them. 

                  There's more to it in my opinion than just coming up with winning numbers. It's when to play them.

                  Again CarBob thank you for your help.

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                    Posted: October 30, 2016, 9:47 pm - IP Logged

                    If you must know why I played 519. It was because last week 657 +694 = 241. Well last week, I had 694 as one of my 6. So this week I added all my new 6 to the last number 337. And I chose the number 282. 282+337=519. But last week I also had an 832 number. I also had a 525 number under the 694. 694+525=119. 832+337=169. There's that old flip and mirror switch. With a lot of connections. Yes looking back I can say this. And yes I probably should've played it, and yes shame on me. I am stubborn. But during or before it's not always so easy. It's confusing. Anyways. I try my best. I don't believe I have anything to prove to anyone. I did call 550 also 2 weeks ago after the 322 straight repeat and told everyone that had ears you didn't need to even play it box. I won it straight. I didn't play it box at all.

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                      Posted: October 30, 2016, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

                      The things I need to learn and remember after this year are 1. Patience 2. Budget and 3. Focus

                      Those are my flaws. It's as simple as that. And as frustrating also.

                      And Yes Lucky Loser I did play all those numbers that I posted.

                      I understand your point. You're right. It just gets confusing to me. Front pair Rear pair. $2×10 or 20 numbers. That's an extra $10 or $20 on top of the $20 already paid. Order etc, 911 or 119. I do understand your point and it is something that needs to be focused on. There are many ways to beat this game, yes.

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                        Posted: October 30, 2016, 10:21 pm - IP Logged

                        Eh my math with dollars, it's late am getting tired. I could tell you how I saw the 4 number too. 6475. But what's the point. From my experience with the way I come up with numbers. If something happens and that's an if with a lot of same calculations but with different answers because each new number drawn adds a different answer etc, then the possibilities of something else being connected with that in the same way are very high. Sometimes instead of moving forward though with the new numbers, one meaning I need to just stay put and look at the place where the something occured or started in the first place and then do it the same way but differently. Meaning if 4 gets added to the 2 in 7492 to make 7496, and 4 gets added to the 4 in 7354 to make 7358. Then instead of adding a 2 to 7132 or a 2 to 7962. Add a 3 to 7354, to make 7654. Not making sense I'm sure, but...it would if you saw what I was talking about.

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                          Posted: October 30, 2016, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                          @Soledad 

                          "The random part to me is when they come out and in what order. That to me is random, otherwise I would've conquered NY in less than a year."

                          I Agree! 

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                            Posted: October 30, 2016, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

                            Soledad , have you ever followed the strings of a cash 3or play 4 lottery. Lets use string 123456 as an example. In the last 100 draws one of those digits have appeared. For that string to break, 3 of the missing digits have to appear. Look very close at the draws for NY, how many draws don't reach 100. Does that not prove the draws are not Random? If you see that string around 100 skips, start betting on the missing 4 digits. Ny Mid 356789 is at 124 skips in which one of those digits have been drawn, it is now at 125. 619 was the mid draw. The max skip is 131.

                            356789
                            0
                            190
                            12
                            131
                            28.62
                            125

                            6 is easier than 5. Less costly too. Thank you CarBob. I believe you 100%.

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                              Posted: October 30, 2016, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

                              Every combination has the same probability but the Numbers game in New York is a hard state to predict, I remember this poster his name was Lottoking he asked someone who states they were the best predictor to predict New York and this LP poster ignored him and than accused him of trolling. It's easy to point fingers and mistakes but every state is different and what works in some states does not work in other states. Soledad is very helpful and nice in the New York dream team and she is always predicting and her numbers do come out I find she has a good system and I am amazed at all the things she sees I can't see because of her I look at numbers in a different way. What makes LP special is that every one has good ideas and helps you be a better player this topic has been one of the best topics because I have learned a whole wealth of information that I didn't know.

                                 
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