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Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 19 days ago by Soledad.

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amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

United States
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March 12, 2015
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Posted: September 23, 2016, 1:00 pm - IP Logged

Lotteries have one or two drawings a day, two or three times a week for state jackpot games, and twice a week for MM and PB.

Silly that you need this explained to you, but casinos are in business to get hands of cards dealt, rolls of the dice, and spins of the roulette wheel. 

So much for no way of being able to explain why casinos don't do the same tests. 

Your feigned knowledge of casinos is getting kind of entertaining, keep it up.

You are of the school of have-to-have-the-last-word so this should be good. 

Lep

So sad at your poor attempt to rationalize and justify all of this. 

 

No explanation yet huh? Just a lot of double talk.

 

Silly that you need this explained to you, but casinos are in business to get hands of cards dealt, rolls of the dice, and spins of the roulette wheel. 

This is your explanation?..ahaha ahha ahahhaha ahahahahaha ahaha ahaha ahahaha ahahahaha ahaha aha ahaha ahaha ahaha ahahahha ahahahahahha aha aha ahahaha ahahha!!!!!!!!!!

 

You are dumber than the KY Jelly manufacturer and the the guys who is STUCK on 47.

 

ANSWER MY QUESTION!!!!, HOW LONG WOULD THE DOORS REMAIN OPEN IF THE CASINOS PULLED THE SAME CRAP AS LOTTERIES DO??????????????????????????

 

DON'T BOTHER, YOU CAN'T ANSWER A SIMPLE QUESTION !

BECAUSE YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER AND TOO EMBARRASSED TO ADMIT THEY WOULD SHUT DOWN THE SAME DAY THEY IMPLEMENTED THE SAME RULES AS THE LOTTERIES !

    Avatar
    California
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    Posted: September 23, 2016, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

    I could be completely wrong, but my understanding is that is a ball set fails the pre-tests for Texas Lottery Daily 4 if it repeats five times in the same chamber. At that point, lottery officials might believe something about that ball set and chamber combination is biased somehow during those particular pre-tests.

    Maybe the lottery officials don't think a number repeating (in the same chamber or not?) in four consecutive official draws is an issue because the same ball set or machine would most likely not be used in four consecutive official draws.

    I wonder what the lottery officials think about four consecutive repeats (in the same chamber or not?) that span pre-tests and official draws? Like the last 2 pre-tests, the official draw, and the first pre-test of the next draw. Or the last pre-test, the official draw, and the first 2 pre-tests of the next draw.

    Just thinking out loud, and putting something (that could be nonsense) out there for consideration...

      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
      Texas
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      Posted: September 23, 2016, 1:27 pm - IP Logged

      I could be completely wrong, but my understanding is that is a ball set fails the pre-tests for Texas Lottery Daily 4 if it repeats five times in the same chamber. At that point, lottery officials might believe something about that ball set and chamber combination is biased somehow during those particular pre-tests.

      Maybe the lottery officials don't think a number repeating (in the same chamber or not?) in four consecutive official draws is an issue because the same ball set or machine would most likely not be used in four consecutive official draws.

      I wonder what the lottery officials think about four consecutive repeats (in the same chamber or not?) that span pre-tests and official draws? Like the last 2 pre-tests, the official draw, and the first pre-test of the next draw. Or the last pre-test, the official draw, and the first 2 pre-tests of the next draw.

      Just thinking out loud, and putting something (that could be nonsense) out there for consideration...

      In my honest and common sense opinion, the lotteries need to conduct a single draw and allow whatever happens to just freely and NATURALLY happen, okay. The only, and I repeat ONLY time they should even think of changing machines or ball sets is if they see where a machine fails to properly draw in one or all of the chambers, or, the balls clearly aren't being properly agitated. Outside of those, as long as that machine fires up, those balls are circulating, and one is selected from each chamber producing a combination, EVERYTHING ELSE IS PURE BS. What in he!! is wrong with a single draw to determine which players are good with their picksNo Nod?

      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

      #lotto-4-a-living

        amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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        Posted: September 23, 2016, 2:00 pm - IP Logged

        As Lucky Loser wrote earlier about  pre tests that show the same numbers in a row force the officials to change he ball set, but when the official draws have consecutive numbers, that's okay with the officials. What a bunch of crap.

         

        The new Florida Pick-2 game. Yeah, that's random, MY ASS !

        Sept. 16 eve-01

        Sept. 17 eve-04

        Sept. 18 eve-50

        Sept. 19 eve-60

        Sept. 20 eve-20

        Sept. 21 eve-70

        Random my ASS !!!!

         

        Florida, pick 2 game..

         

        Sept. 21 eve-70

        Sept. 22 mid-70

        Sept. 23 mid-70

         

        When will some of you dense heads finally wake up?

          bobby623's avatar - abstract
          San Angelo, Texas
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          Posted: September 23, 2016, 2:08 pm - IP Logged


          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306892

          As a final comment on a thread that seems to be going in circles, suggest you check out the link.
          It's about a workout strategy that does not include 'pre-tests' or any other 'pre' action associated with lottery drawings.
          The workout is 'driven' by the 'winning, prize paying integers.

          Why not just ignore the pre-tests and spend your time and energy with something that might put some $$$ in your pocket??

          We all have opinions about the testing, but, it's a fact of life beyond our control.

          You could always write a protest letter to your politician. I'm sure he/she would get right on it.
          You could also email Todd and suggest he start a petition against pre-testing, but I doubt he would reply.

          Have a good day!!

            Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
            Texas
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            Posted: September 23, 2016, 2:48 pm - IP Logged


            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/306892

            As a final comment on a thread that seems to be going in circles, suggest you check out the link.
            It's about a workout strategy that does not include 'pre-tests' or any other 'pre' action associated with lottery drawings.
            The workout is 'driven' by the 'winning, prize paying integers.

            Why not just ignore the pre-tests and spend your time and energy with something that might put some $$$ in your pocket??

            We all have opinions about the testing, but, it's a fact of life beyond our control.

            You could always write a protest letter to your politician. I'm sure he/she would get right on it.
            You could also email Todd and suggest he start a petition against pre-testing, but I doubt he would reply.

            Have a good day!!

            The workout is 'driven' by the 'winning, prize paying integers.

            As a final comment on a thread that seems to be going in circles

            Well, bobby, you're actually correct except you circled right back to what I've already accurately identifiedLOL. You see, those 'prize-winning integers' which were and are drawn the 5th time are still part of that same process where (4) prior winning integers were also drawnYes Nod. Again, the only difference is that the one draw has 'official' attached to itYes Nod. I'd like to ask you another great question, if you'll oblige me just one last timeSee Ya!. What happens when the same numbers/combos drawn in the pre-test are drawn a day or so later in their official draw, and, the once so-called 'winning and prize-paying integers' show up in pre-tests after that? Would you still utilize those now defunct integers as 'drivers', or, switch to those pre-test numbers that once never had any impact on anythingNo No? When I tell you that it has happened, you can trust that I know what I'm talking aboutSmash

            Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

            There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

            #lotto-4-a-living

              bobby623's avatar - abstract
              San Angelo, Texas
              United States
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              Posted: September 23, 2016, 3:00 pm - IP Logged

              The workout is 'driven' by the 'winning, prize paying integers.

              As a final comment on a thread that seems to be going in circles

              Well, bobby, you're actually correct except you circled right back to what I've already accurately identifiedLOL. You see, those 'prize-winning integers' which were and are drawn the 5th time are still part of that same process where (4) prior winning integers were also drawnYes Nod. Again, the only difference is that the one draw has 'official' attached to itYes Nod. I'd like to ask you another great question, if you'll oblige me just one last timeSee Ya!. What happens when the same numbers/combos drawn in the pre-test are drawn a day or so later in their official draw, and, the once so-called 'winning and prize-paying integers' show up in pre-tests after that? Would you still utilize those now defunct integers as 'drivers', or, switch to those pre-test numbers that once never had any impact on anythingNo No? When I tell you that it has happened, you can trust that I know what I'm talking aboutSmash

              One more last time!

              Are you using a workout where you actually process the pre-test integers??
              That's a lot of time and effort.
              I have experienced situations you refer to, but, that's a chance we take when we decide to gamble.
              I've played combinations for awhile and switched.
              Disappointing when the older integers arrive and I'm concentrating on something else.
              I use to check the pre-tests and sometimes found my integer choices had arrived, but, again,  it's all part of the chance we take
              trying to win something big with a small investment.
              Face it, winning is hard, no matter what our choices are.

              Good luck!!

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                New York, NY
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                March 23, 2013
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                Posted: September 23, 2016, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

                I don't think this conversation is going in circles. I think it's a very interesting conversation about the game, where ideas are discussed. It's better than just saying what number you think is gonna be next. This conversation helps to think about the game in my opinion. Which makes you think about ideas. But I still for that matter agree with Ion Saliu in this case. As <snip>y as he is about the universe and all that, he is also right. You don't need to follow any predetermined set of numbers to create a pattern. You can make the numbers all up for all you care. You can still find a pattern. Also, I am extremely grateful that amber123 has not called me any names. I don't think I could take it, lol. 

                This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                  Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                  Texas
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                  Posted: September 23, 2016, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

                  One more last time!

                  Are you using a workout where you actually process the pre-test integers??
                  That's a lot of time and effort.
                  I have experienced situations you refer to, but, that's a chance we take when we decide to gamble.
                  I've played combinations for awhile and switched.
                  Disappointing when the older integers arrive and I'm concentrating on something else.
                  I use to check the pre-tests and sometimes found my integer choices had arrived, but, again,  it's all part of the chance we take
                  trying to win something big with a small investment.
                  Face it, winning is hard, no matter what our choices are.

                  Good luck!!

                  I'm simply saying that, if possible and with access, the pre-test shouldn't be discounted because they're using them as a TOOL. You only utilize a TOOL, bobby, if it's something you need that helps you accomplish something. If those pre-tests weren't helping/benefiting them in any way, they wouldn't be conducting them...in my very honest opinion. 

                  Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                  There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                  #lotto-4-a-living

                    MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                    Ny
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                    Posted: September 23, 2016, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                    One digit appearing in the same spot would only effect the possibility of straight hits positively or negatively on both ends for the player and the lottery just to get that out of the way.. positioning is the key part of the game.. I would object this has something to do with why they change the machdo a machine switch after 4 identical position hits in a row.. Would you still believe the game is generating randomness if the same digit came up in the same exact spot consecutively 4-5 times in the official draws? It's clear it does not matter to the lottery if the same digit lands in different positions consecutively.. that is usually how the game goes in my experience..

                    Positioning of the digits may be a key ingredient in a player winning straight while also keeping payouts even.. whatever that may be within their ideal of lottery/state finances we don't necessarily know.. I don't play digits in the same position consecutively because I know the likelihood yet your sate may be different in this regard of 'patterns'.. I would think many players position there digits every draw, some players don't and a bias in positioning would lead to chaos.. losers.. and big winners those who play that exact trend or digit is a strong possibility with this game.. anybody else incorporate that mindset in their workout? As another poster recently stated it could be that the lottery would like to believe this is a bias in the particular machine and will look a bit suspect to players if made official.. I don't think it is any secret that the lottery doesn't want to payout or lose millions of dollars on any given day on any given game.. you can tell by the average payout each day it rarely shoots up or down..  Now they would only notice this bias before it's too late if they conduct these pre -tests.. Does anybody know how often this actually happens that they will have to change machines during pre- tests before the official draw? I would assume not too often.. In conclusion I feel the lottery officials feel that one digit landing in the same position creating such a bias would be detrimental and the lottery is looking for consistency in what they are paying out..  So 'hey LL maybe they are manipulating the lottery in some of the most random ways possible'

                    Creativity..

                    " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                    Million dollar operation 

                    Wink

                      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                      Posted: September 23, 2016, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

                      One digit appearing in the same spot would only effect the possibility of straight hits positively or negatively on both ends for the player and the lottery just to get that out of the way.. positioning is the key part of the game.. I would object this has something to do with why they change the machdo a machine switch after 4 identical position hits in a row.. Would you still believe the game is generating randomness if the same digit came up in the same exact spot consecutively 4-5 times in the official draws? It's clear it does not matter to the lottery if the same digit lands in different positions consecutively.. that is usually how the game goes in my experience..

                      Positioning of the digits may be a key ingredient in a player winning straight while also keeping payouts even.. whatever that may be within their ideal of lottery/state finances we don't necessarily know.. I don't play digits in the same position consecutively because I know the likelihood yet your sate may be different in this regard of 'patterns'.. I would think many players position there digits every draw, some players don't and a bias in positioning would lead to chaos.. losers.. and big winners those who play that exact trend or digit is a strong possibility with this game.. anybody else incorporate that mindset in their workout? As another poster recently stated it could be that the lottery would like to believe this is a bias in the particular machine and will look a bit suspect to players if made official.. I don't think it is any secret that the lottery doesn't want to payout or lose millions of dollars on any given day on any given game.. you can tell by the average payout each day it rarely shoots up or down..  Now they would only notice this bias before it's too late if they conduct these pre -tests.. Does anybody know how often this actually happens that they will have to change machines during pre- tests before the official draw? I would assume not too often.. In conclusion I feel the lottery officials feel that one digit landing in the same position creating such a bias would be detrimental and the lottery is looking for consistency in what they are paying out..  So 'hey LL maybe they are manipulating the lottery in some of the most random ways possible'

                      You are catching on!!

                        MoneyMike$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                        Ny
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                        Posted: September 23, 2016, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

                        You are catching on!!

                        Is consistency my key point here? To let us players enjoy a bias of the same digit in one spot would be magical

                        Creativity..

                        " What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

                        Million dollar operation 

                        Wink

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                          New York, NY
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                          Posted: September 23, 2016, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

                          Good point. As a player it's of the utmost importance to understand how the numbers move into the positions. I've been playing 502 all week in NY. Last night I saw it for the second time as 250. I still played it as 502. Today it was 520. Lost my chance at a straight. Case in point.

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                            Posted: September 23, 2016, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

                            "If lotteries conduct tests to see if there's an 'indication of a problem', then isn't that the same as seeing if things are working correctly "

                            No. Maybe not being able to figure that out on your own is related to your confusion about other things. Whether or not I do things that result in wear and tear to my vehicles depends on whether or not I have a reason to do it. It's really that simple, so  there's no reason it should confuse you. I don't think the lottery needs to do as much testing as they do, but it's their choice and  there's a logical reason for it even if that logic is based on an inflated concern about the possibility that  an unlikely test result indicates an actual problem. Since I'm not an idiot I know that the tests have no effect on the actual results that will determine whether or not I win anything, so I don't care if they do more than  they need to.

                            "That's what you told us in the third post down right here:"

                            I'm sorry that reality confuses and bothers you, but that's just the way it is. For my part, I don't care. Since I'm not an idiot I know that it's only the winning result that matters, and my chances if winning are the same no matter how many test drawing they do.

                             

                            "Don't test me by asking me stupid question BOY !"

                            Aww. I must have hit a nerve. I suppose that's good news, because it indicates that deep inside you have at least a glimmer of recognition that I'm right. About your intellectual and reasoning abilities, that is. I don't see any evidence at all that there's even the barest glimmer of actual understanding about probability.

                            "the more you flip a coin, and the flips show the same side, the more of a chance it will try to balance itself out."

                            And there you go again. First, you're apparently not smart enough to have answered the actual question, and second you're claiming yet again that coins have some kind of magical ability to decide whether they should land heads or tails. There are literally millions and millions of past coin flips making it absolutely clear that the next flip is still a 50/50 chance, but there's something about the way your mind works that prevents you from  figuring it out.

                             

                            "But they assume there is something wrong after only 4 or 5 in a row."

                            You're making assumptions. If you want to know why they do something or what they think you'll have to ask them, because we can only guess about the reasons. My guess is that they've just got a simple policy that when they get a result that's sufficiently unlikely they switch to different equipment because the unlikely result could indicate a problem, not because they're sure it does. They know that every result they get, whether in a test or the official drawing is unlikely, and I doubt that they actually think there's a  real problem just because  they get a very unlikely result.

                            As for tests vs actual results, I don't need to guess about whether it's you or them that knows more about the actual probabilities. They  know that getting the same number in 8 consecutive drawings isn't  particularly unlikely. In fact, they know exactly what the chances are, and they know that's it's orders of magnitude more likely than drawing the same number 5 times in a row during the tests. I do have to guess, but I'm pretty sure you've got no idea how likely it is. Perhaps you're also forgetting that, unlike the 5 test drawings,  what you see as the same number 8 days in a row wasn't the result of using the same machine and ball set for each drawing. Of course that doesn't affect the probability, but it definitely has a role in deciding if the repeats are the result of the equipment producing non-random results.

                             

                            "Call me a conspiracy person"

                            I thought we established that a long time ago. As near as I can tell what you're doing now is trying to establish that you're just plain crazy.

                              grwurston's avatar - Cute animals_Spider.jpg
                              Winning makes me smile.
                              bel air maryland
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                              Posted: September 23, 2016, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

                              My guess is that they've just got a simple policy that when they get a result that's sufficiently unlikely they switch to different equipment because the unlikely result could indicate a problem, not because they're sure it does. They know that every result they get, whether in a test or the official drawing is unlikely, and I doubt that they actually think there's a  real problem just because  they get a very unlikely result.

                              So which is it? First you say when they get a result that is sufficiently unlikely they change equipment because it could indicate a problem.

                              What would that problem be?  Tell us.

                              Then you say, I doubt they actually think there's a real problem, just because they get a very unlikely result. What?

                              Exactly my point. They switch equipment when they see something unlikely. Who says it's unlikely? Who determines what is likely or unlikely? As players we see things that are "unlikely" all the time. I have already given  many examples of things on this thread that could be considered "unlikely." But they would tell us, "Hey it's all random."

                              Why is isn't what THEY consider unlikely, actually just RANDOM??? If they wanted everything to be truly random then there is no need to change the ball set, machines, etc. What ever happens, happens. Leave it at that.

                              I am not making assumptions. They DO change the ball sets when something happens 4 or 5 times in a row. It is their policy and they have stated that. But why do they do it?

                              How do you know they didn't use the same machines when the 9's hit 8 days in a row.? Machines and balls are picked randomly too, right? Eight days in a row is unlikely, but yet it still happens in the official drawings. Why can't, or should I say, Why don't they allow it to happen in the pre-tests? Because they don't want things to be truly random!!!

                              "You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

                              The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

                              Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

                                 
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