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# Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 13 days ago by Soledad.

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u\$a
United States
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February 22, 2011
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 7:11 am - IP Logged

No need for anyone else to post their viewpoints, since it seems you have it all figured out. Presumably, you're already a lottery millionaire

Let it Snow

United States
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March 12, 2015
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 1:04 pm - IP Logged

"So are you telling me that doing up to 7 pre tests does NOT affect the official draw?"

But every time someone asks you to show them an actual effect, you tell the same old lie and then insult whoever asks for your proof; "Like I've written numerous times, it's futile. I can only explain it one way as the best possible explanation.."

You have no explanation so stop whining, nobody is forcing you play lottery games.

"Any attempt after that skews the results"

If you're saying it's impossible for one, two, or all three digits to repeat in any position or for one, two, or even all three to repeat in the same digit position, you don't understand mathematical probability or never analyzed a state lottery drawing history.

"This isn't rocket science genius,"

How about you just take your "winning systems" and move to a state with computer drawings where testing ball sets and machines is unnecessary. But then you can't blame the test drawings when your systems fail.

"Next time you decide to drive your car, start and stop the engine 10 times to make sure the starter works."

Speaking of "some people are just plain dumb", it probably never occurred to you that state lotteries have their reasons for testing their equipment. How many times must you be told THEY ARE NOT FORCING YOU TO PLAY?

Man you are dense. I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times, I can't help it If you're too dumb to understand it.

So I have to move to another state to win? I'm telling you, don't stop taking your meds, but you won't listen to that advice either.

And of course, like you and the rest of the miserable loonies, you never address my points. ANSWER THE QUESTION !

Would you start and stop the engine 10 times to make sure the starter works?."

United States
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October 10, 2015
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

Your question about starting a car supposes the purpose of tests is to show the machines work. But it seems more likely the tests are to demonstrate that the balls  haven't been tampered with.

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1805 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

As far as pre-tests go I will say in my opinion through research that they are in place in some states to randomize the ball sets as much as possible. Why? is the question. The effect that directly has on probability is slim to none. The same number matrix remains the same through the pre-test all the way to the official draw. Probability cannot be altered but a players chances can. To back this up I am assuming pre-test results would rarely show again straight or box for that matter in the next official draw. As a number is drawn it does become slim that it will appear again in the next 4-6 draws. Although it is possible but seldom. The lottery in Texas seems to be looking for a good mix up of combinations throughout their draws. They do conduct 4 draws a day. Pre- tests may be necessary in their lottery officials minds. Does this hint that every 4-6 draws we can expect a good mix of "random combinations" for any pick 3&4 game? Most states don't do this many pre-tests except for Texas.. Texas lottery will tell you why they do this many pre-tests.

Texas Lottery Website

A pre-test is an unofficial drawing that tests the drawing machine and the ball sets used for a Daily 4 drawing. Pre-tests ensure that the drawing machine is working well and that balls are drawn in a random way

What does this suggest to you? Do you believe them? To me it suggests the game can be beaten easier without the pre-tests draws..

The Texas Lottery performs at least four pre-tests before every Daily 4 drawing. The Daily 4 drawing machine uses four separate ball sets – one for each of the four winning numbers. Each of these four ball sets are tested in separate chambers of the Daily 4 drawing machine. The ball sets for Daily 4  pass or fail the pre-tests independently.

If any Daily 4 ball is drawn four times in the same chamber, a fifth pre-test is performed. If any Daily 4ball that was drawn four times in the same chamber is drawn a fifth time in the same chamber, then the ball set in that chamber only, will not pass the pre-tests.

Sounds to me like they're doing a lot of work to ensure the randomness of the game.

As another poster mentioned pre-tests do have the opportunity to throw off systematic players. Their is a reason for these pre-tests especially with such a large amount of draws daily I can see why Texas uses "pre-tests" before every draw. If the pre-tests are only made public knowledge after the draw it may be a systematic players nightmare.

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

Texas
United States
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January 30, 2010
1648 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 2:05 pm - IP Logged

That topic was about PB tests and someone mentioned the results of the test weren't known until after the official drawing.

rcbbuckeye said "I don't know about MM and PB, but I'm pretty sure Texas posts all the pre draw results before the actual drawing takes place. Check about 9:45 - 10:00 tonight. Texas draws the state games at 10:12pm."

And Rjoh asked "How can you use the information if you have purchase you tickets 15 minutes before the drawings?"

And then I answered with "They could use the pre-drawing test information to predict the results of the next pre-drawing test."

Do I really need to explain to you that while the players can't use the the latest test results to predict the next official drawing, they could use them to predict the next test results?

Do pre-drawing tests effect future pre-drawing the same way they effect future official drawings?

Never mind I forgot, you never explained how those tests actually effect the official drawings.

Do I really need to explain to you that while the players can't use the the latest test results to predict the next official drawing, they could use them to predict the next test results?

So, YES!!!, please explain. Why is it that only the test results can be utilized to predict additional future test results but, NOT possible results of an official draw...when all the drawings happened during the same session? In other words, everything is the same except the tests give insight to future tests but, those same numbers have no bearing on official results? Okay, then, answer me this. Are not the combos drawn in pre/post-tests also WINNING COMBOS, and, part of the total possible combinations? () Just because the commissions deem them only tests makes them less valuable and likely not to be winning numbers when, in fact, they ARE winning numbers labeled as 'tests?'

Never mind I forgot, you never explained how those tests actually effect the official drawings.

No, I'm still patiently waiting for you to explain why one cannot be applied to the other when it's all the same thing, Stack. You're actually discriminating on the draws, at the false discretion of the commission, by calling one of them 'official.' Remove the titles from all five total draws, four tests and one official in Texas Pick 3, and you still have five total draws with no name and the same numbers. It seems, in my humble opinion, that they've got you and many others hoodwinked with their bogus 'verbiage.' Next time you're ready go somewhere, be sure to start and turn off your vehicle four times before starting it a fifth time and saying, "Ahhhh, THIS is the one that REALLY COUNTS! I can leave now!"

Cold beer, beef jerky, Texans are leading, Stack47 & friends in the palm of my hand....it's another good day!

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living

United States
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March 12, 2015
2506 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 2:17 pm - IP Logged

Your question about starting a car supposes the purpose of tests is to show the machines work. But it seems more likely the tests are to demonstrate that the balls  haven't been tampered with.

Obviously people don't read past posts in a thread and then make a comment.

You want tamper proofing? Like I wrote earlier, put the machines in a vault with a live camera looking at it all night and a security guard looking at the video feed. DONE!

Now go ahead and give me 101 excuses why that's so freaking difficult to do. You'd rather pay a bunch of people who spend upwards of 8 hours a day and night, probably more, and perform all these tests before and after the drawing, wearing out the dang machines till THEY DO BREAK DOWN EVEN FASTER?>>>>DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1805 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

Obviously people don't read past posts in a thread and then make a comment.

You want tamper proofing? Like I wrote earlier, put the machines in a vault with a live camera looking at it all night and a security guard looking at the video feed. DONE!

Now go ahead and give me 101 excuses why that's so freaking difficult to do. You'd rather pay a bunch of people who spend upwards of 8 hours a day and night, probably more, and perform all these tests before and after the drawing, wearing out the dang machines till THEY DO BREAK DOWN EVEN FASTER?>>>>DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha  I hear you amber. Basically the pre-tests are not so much to prevent tampering. They are in place to create RANDOMNESS is the LARGE PICTURE. In my illustration in my last post taken directly from the website if you look past most of the BS everyone should get the hint. They must generate randomness and it must be a heck of a lot harder to generate such randomness conducting 4 draws a day. Point blank.  Now who uses the pre-test draws to determine their picks and who doesn't?? If anybody..

Are we playing against the lottery? Or is the lottery playing back against us in subtle ways?

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

Winning makes me smile.
bel air maryland
United States
Member #90251
April 24, 2010
4852 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

As far as pre-tests go I will say in my opinion through research that they are in place in some states to randomize the ball sets as much as possible. Why? is the question. The effect that directly has on probability is slim to none. The same number matrix remains the same through the pre-test all the way to the official draw. Probability cannot be altered but a players chances can. To back this up I am assuming pre-test results would rarely show again straight or box for that matter in the next official draw. As a number is drawn it does become slim that it will appear again in the next 4-6 draws. Although it is possible but seldom. The lottery in Texas seems to be looking for a good mix up of combinations throughout their draws. They do conduct 4 draws a day. Pre- tests may be necessary in their lottery officials minds. Does this hint that every 4-6 draws we can expect a good mix of "random combinations" for any pick 3&4 game? Most states don't do this many pre-tests except for Texas.. Texas lottery will tell you why they do this many pre-tests.

Texas Lottery Website

A pre-test is an unofficial drawing that tests the drawing machine and the ball sets used for a Daily 4 drawing. Pre-tests ensure that the drawing machine is working well and that balls are drawn in a random way

What does this suggest to you? Do you believe them? To me it suggests the game can be beaten easier without the pre-tests draws..

The Texas Lottery performs at least four pre-tests before every Daily 4 drawing. The Daily 4 drawing machine uses four separate ball sets – one for each of the four winning numbers. Each of these four ball sets are tested in separate chambers of the Daily 4 drawing machine. The ball sets for Daily 4  pass or fail the pre-tests independently.

If any Daily 4 ball is drawn four times in the same chamber, a fifth pre-test is performed. If any Daily 4ball that was drawn four times in the same chamber is drawn a fifth time in the same chamber, then the ball set in that chamber only, will not pass the pre-tests.

Sounds to me like they're doing a lot of work to ensure the randomness of the game.

As another poster mentioned pre-tests do have the opportunity to throw off systematic players. Their is a reason for these pre-tests especially with such a large amount of draws daily I can see why Texas uses "pre-tests" before every draw. If the pre-tests are only made public knowledge after the draw it may be a systematic players nightmare.

If any Daily 4 ball is drawn four times in the same chamber, a fifth pre-test is performed. If any Daily 4ball that was drawn four times in the same chamber is drawn a fifth time in the same chamber, then the ball set in that chamber only, will not pass the pre-tests.

Sounds to me like they're doing a lot of work to ensure the randomness of the game.

Let me ask you this. If the same number comes up 5 times in the same position, why do the lottery officials change the ball set?

There are two answers to this question.

1) They think someone tampered with the balls or machines in some way like what happened in Pa. Which is what led to all the pre and post draw tests that they do now. Obviously the security wasn't that good back then, which led to the tampering. But nowadays the security is so stringent it's impossible for one person to get to the balls. Several people need to be present for the machine set up and drawings to be conducted, not to mention all the 24 hour video cameras that are present. So this is a BS reason.

2)  If the same number comes up 5 times in a row in the same position, why isn't this considered to be the "randomness" of the game?  Something unusual happens during the pre test and now all of a sudden the officials say, "That's not random. We need to change the balls."  That implies one of two things.  Either one, they have a security issue which is unlikely. (See above).  Or two, the games are not meant to be completely random. The fact that they change the ball sets proves this. Other wise why would they do it?

Another point to consider. The time it takes to do the 5 pre tests. They are doing the tests back to back to back... maybe just a few minutes apart. If there were NO pre tests at all, and the drawings were conducted 24 hours apart and  the same number came up in the same position 5 times in a row, would that raise suspicion among the lottery officials. Hell no!!!  If they DID the pre tests, and the same number came up 5 times in a row in the same position in the official draw ONLY, would that raise suspicion among lottery officials? Hell no!!! If the players complained about how unusual it is, the officials would just say, "It's all completely random."  But yet, "It's all  completely random,"  DOES NOT apply to the pre tests.  The question is,  Why doesn't it??? That is what raises suspicion among the players.

The only way to have a completely random drawing is to have the OFFICIAL DRAW ONLY. If the balls come flying out of the machine or something else happens, then follow the procedure set up for that, and re-do the drawing.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

United States
Member #169277
October 10, 2015
630 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

Obviously people don't read past posts in a thread and then make a comment.

You want tamper proofing? Like I wrote earlier, put the machines in a vault with a live camera looking at it all night and a security guard looking at the video feed. DONE!

Now go ahead and give me 101 excuses why that's so freaking difficult to do. You'd rather pay a bunch of people who spend upwards of 8 hours a day and night, probably more, and perform all these tests before and after the drawing, wearing out the dang machines till THEY DO BREAK DOWN EVEN FASTER?>>>>DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll trade with you. You get my states computer RNG and I'll take your states ball drawings, pre-draws and all.

United States
Member #169277
October 10, 2015
630 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 6:43 pm - IP Logged

Obviously people don't read past posts in a thread and then make a comment.

You want tamper proofing? Like I wrote earlier, put the machines in a vault with a live camera looking at it all night and a security guard looking at the video feed. DONE!

Now go ahead and give me 101 excuses why that's so freaking difficult to do. You'd rather pay a bunch of people who spend upwards of 8 hours a day and night, probably more, and perform all these tests before and after the drawing, wearing out the dang machines till THEY DO BREAK DOWN EVEN FASTER?>>>>DUH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You'll notice I didn't say pre-draws improve security over cameras and such. I said they demonstrate lack of tampering, public perception you know.

United States
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March 12, 2015
2506 Posts
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

I'll trade with you. You get my states computer RNG and I'll take your states ball drawings, pre-draws and all.

Some states do tests on RNGs too. I don't like computer picks even if they don't do pre tests because the program is based on what's called a seed. That's not random either because most programmers choose what seed to use.

Kentucky
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February 14, 2006
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 11:35 pm - IP Logged

"-Another thing that is predictable is over time the ten digits won't be drawn in equal amounts in any digit position.-

The above statement completely validates exactly why savvy players KNOW that every number/combination DOES NOT have the same probability of being drawn and, thus, applies the +/- probability factor towards the next draw. It's the pre & post-tests conducted that ultimately disrupts the natural flow of the so-called official draw."

Even though you ignored "over time", you won't find in 50 drawings where all ten digits in each digit position were all drawn exactly five times. Maybe you missed the memo, but the three winning digits (on the ping pong balls) are placed back into the container and have the same 1 in 10 chance of being drawn in the next official drawing, As a "savvy player" please explain how test drawings either effect the 1 in 10 chance each digit has or why each digit doesn't have a 1 in 10 chance,

Math books explain probability and you'll find "things that disrupts the natural flow" in fiction or fantasy books.

Kentucky
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February 14, 2006
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 Posted: September 18, 2016, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

Man you are dense. I've written how it gets affect about a 1,000 times, I can't help it If you're too dumb to understand it.

So I have to move to another state to win? I'm telling you, don't stop taking your meds, but you won't listen to that advice either.

And of course, like you and the rest of the miserable loonies, you never address my points. ANSWER THE QUESTION !

Would you start and stop the engine 10 times to make sure the starter works?."

It's obviously impossible for you to discuss anything without childish insults and name calling.

Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
7295 Posts
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 Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:17 am - IP Logged

Do I really need to explain to you that while the players can't use the the latest test results to predict the next official drawing, they could use them to predict the next test results?

So, YES!!!, please explain. Why is it that only the test results can be utilized to predict additional future test results but, NOT possible results of an official draw...when all the drawings happened during the same session? In other words, everything is the same except the tests give insight to future tests but, those same numbers have no bearing on official results? Okay, then, answer me this. Are not the combos drawn in pre/post-tests also WINNING COMBOS, and, part of the total possible combinations? () Just because the commissions deem them only tests makes them less valuable and likely not to be winning numbers when, in fact, they ARE winning numbers labeled as 'tests?'

Never mind I forgot, you never explained how those tests actually effect the official drawings.

No, I'm still patiently waiting for you to explain why one cannot be applied to the other when it's all the same thing, Stack. You're actually discriminating on the draws, at the false discretion of the commission, by calling one of them 'official.' Remove the titles from all five total draws, four tests and one official in Texas Pick 3, and you still have five total draws with no name and the same numbers. It seems, in my humble opinion, that they've got you and many others hoodwinked with their bogus 'verbiage.' Next time you're ready go somewhere, be sure to start and turn off your vehicle four times before starting it a fifth time and saying, "Ahhhh, THIS is the one that REALLY COUNTS! I can leave now!"

Cold beer, beef jerky, Texans are leading, Stack47 & friends in the palm of my hand....it's another good day!

"No, I'm still patiently waiting for you to explain why one cannot be applied to the other when it's all the same thing, Stack. You're actually discriminating on the draws, at the false discretion of the commission, by calling one of them 'official.' Remove the titles from all five total draws,"

I'm calling them "official" because they are the only drawings players get paid on. Have no idea what you mean by "one cannot be applied to the other".

"Remove the titles from all five total draws, four tests and one official in Texas Pick 3, and you still have five total draws with no name and the same numbers "

Now that you can finally distinguish between the tests and the "one official" drawing, it should be easier for you understand why only the winners of the "one official" drawings collect winnings.

"It seems, in my humble opinion, that they've got you and many others hoodwinked with their bogus 'verbiage.'"

News flash, Texas is not the only lottery with pick-3 drawings and testing procedures vary. Believe it or not, many lotteries don't record test results. Are you suggesting the only way to prevent your theoretical testing effects on the "one official" drawing is computer RNG drawings?

"Next time you're ready go somewhere, be sure to start and turn off your vehicle four times before starting it a fifth time and saying, "Ahhhh, THIS is the one that REALLY COUNTS! I can leave now!"

I don't work for the Texas Lottery and obviously have nothing to do with their testing procedures. As for your question, does the Texas Lottery start and stop their live drawings?

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1805 Posts
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 Posted: September 19, 2016, 12:25 am - IP Logged

Probability is probability.. but what is most likely to happen next is a different story

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

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