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# Do you believe every combination has the same probability?

595 replies. Last post 18 days ago by Soledad.

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The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
Elgin, IL
United States
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January 1, 2009
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 7:31 am - IP Logged

In random processes repeating digits, pairs, and numbers in general happen more often than one would think. It is biased in respect to the odds of the game, to consider that every single combination of 2-7-9-8 or 0-4-6-8 should be considered to be the same number. Because each different combination of that number has different payouts. Again, you must consider the odds as part of the game. You cannot be biased with making up your own version of the truth.

The facts speak for themselves.  I am not making up my own version of the truth.  The odds of the game is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in any given game & cannot be altered unless you change the number of balls in the game.  You cannot truly have a random process when you put these man made balls into a man made machine & expect everything to be consider equal.  These balls are put into the hopper in a certain order, the machine is turned on, the balls drop, spindles turn, balls drop out.  From start to finish; the entire process takes less than 15 seconds.  Even if you use different machines, combinations and patterns do form over a period of time.  The odds of any game is based on the fact that each ball has an equal opportunity of being drawn. In reality, this is not the case.  Even in a Random Number Generator, the computer & software are man made. The results from a RNG will also contain combinations & patterns which tells me it is not truly random.  Even the States know it is not truly random. Look on the back of any lottery play card.  The individual odds of winning outside the grand prise is based on previous payments made & not the true odds.  The Grand prize odds of winning are based on the fact that all combinations are possible of being picked.  This can be done, by using the computer in Quick Picks, having the computer to generate numbers that have not been preciously printed for that drawing.

New York, NY
United States
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March 23, 2013
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 10:02 am - IP Logged

The facts speak for themselves.  I am not making up my own version of the truth.  The odds of the game is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in any given game & cannot be altered unless you change the number of balls in the game.  You cannot truly have a random process when you put these man made balls into a man made machine & expect everything to be consider equal.  These balls are put into the hopper in a certain order, the machine is turned on, the balls drop, spindles turn, balls drop out.  From start to finish; the entire process takes less than 15 seconds.  Even if you use different machines, combinations and patterns do form over a period of time.  The odds of any game is based on the fact that each ball has an equal opportunity of being drawn. In reality, this is not the case.  Even in a Random Number Generator, the computer & software are man made. The results from a RNG will also contain combinations & patterns which tells me it is not truly random.  Even the States know it is not truly random. Look on the back of any lottery play card.  The individual odds of winning outside the grand prise is based on previous payments made & not the true odds.  The Grand prize odds of winning are based on the fact that all combinations are possible of being picked.  This can be done, by using the computer in Quick Picks, having the computer to generate numbers that have not been preciously printed for that drawing.

I apologize for not saying that there is not bias towards certain combinations coming out more than others. Of course this is true, which as I do agree with you certain win4 numbers have never come out straight, ever. And some have more than 6 times or so.

I was merely stating that for the number to be considered as higher than normal the number has to be in the exact order repeatedly. Not just generalizing all 24 box forms of a set of 4 non-repeating numbers as the same number, which they're not. Otherwise the odds would be a lot less than 1:10,000. To beat the true odds, it must be straight. I do understand the point you're making though. And it is most certainly true that bias does exist in these games. That is the nature of the lotto. It's not exact math, and it always doesn't fit into the curve. But that is also the nature of random too. To fit into the nature of events. And if you do look at the curve for all the test draws available in a state's history, the deviations are only minimal. They're not grand. Yes computers can generate random numbers. A lot of the times a big jackpot is won, it's usually a quick pick that wins it, i.e. computers.

All I'm saying is that the lotto is for the most part random. And the commission so forth does they're best to ensure that it is. And again probability theory is not concerned with events after they have occurred. So as long as there is no manipulation of the test-draws, it really shouldn't matter that they test-draw to anyone. They're not the official draw. And there's no proof that they manipulate the test draws and alter the nature of the game. The game is fairly random, and the commission does their best to make sure that it is as random as possible.. So that being said, yes patterns exist and I see patterns a lot too. But those same patterns don't always happen twice. They're not set in stone.

New York, NY
United States
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 10:34 am - IP Logged

I meant to say all the official draws not all the test draws in a state's available draw history.**

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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January 17, 2006
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 11:37 am - IP Logged

Nobody has ever won anything on a test draw.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

Texas
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January 30, 2010
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

Nobody has ever won anything on a test draw.

Coin Toss, I'm actually surprised it took so long for you to chime in with having worked in casinos in the past. Our arguments consist with how casinos don't 'pre-test' their roulette wheel, dice, card decks, keeno, or even pre- test the game administrators' "hands" to ensure they're working properly. In terms of anyone having won anything on a test draw, again, that's simply a matter of the verbiage used to describe numbers that hit...official versus pre-test. Every single pre-test is a possible winning combination be it straight, boxed, or a combination of sorts...and somebody has it. In the case of Texas, you can best believe that people have found their numbers in those tests but, lacking in the official draw. With other states that don't post their test results, people cannot see whether or not they won nor compare the tests against their so-called official results. So, in my honest opinion, people have won on test draws but, couldn't get paid because...they were winning numbers thrown out. It took you long enough to step in.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1806 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 4:28 pm - IP Logged

The facts speak for themselves.  I am not making up my own version of the truth.  The odds of the game is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in any given game & cannot be altered unless you change the number of balls in the game.  You cannot truly have a random process when you put these man made balls into a man made machine & expect everything to be consider equal.  These balls are put into the hopper in a certain order, the machine is turned on, the balls drop, spindles turn, balls drop out.  From start to finish; the entire process takes less than 15 seconds.  Even if you use different machines, combinations and patterns do form over a period of time.  The odds of any game is based on the fact that each ball has an equal opportunity of being drawn. In reality, this is not the case.  Even in a Random Number Generator, the computer & software are man made. The results from a RNG will also contain combinations & patterns which tells me it is not truly random.  Even the States know it is not truly random. Look on the back of any lottery play card.  The individual odds of winning outside the grand prise is based on previous payments made & not the true odds.  The Grand prize odds of winning are based on the fact that all combinations are possible of being picked.  This can be done, by using the computer in Quick Picks, having the computer to generate numbers that have not been preciously printed for that drawing.

The odds of the game is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in any given game & cannot be altered unless you change the number of balls in the game.  You cannot truly have a random process when you put these man made balls into a man made machine & expect everything to be consider equal.

Correct. Why not? I'm interested.

Even if you use different machines, combinations and patterns do form over a period of time.  The odds of any game is based on the fact that each ball has an equal opportunity of being drawn. In reality, this is not the case.

I would think this does suggest the draws are random if patterns do show in a game where numbered balls are mixed up in a tube and then released in combinations of 3 or 4 digits. What is your ideal of an equal opportunity when it comes to the lottery? Rarely if ever are you going to see 1-2-3-4 then the next draw 5-6-7-8. This would insist no pattern. Repeat digits should be expected.

Even in a Random Number Generator, the computer & software are man made. The results from a RNG will also contain combinations & patterns which tells me it is not truly random.  Even the States know it is not truly random.

Go back to what I was saying their is a difference between a computerized draw machine and a ball machine in how the numbers are generated showing very different patterns. Yes that means the RNG is working off of an algorithm.. a ball machine cannot work off of an algorithm. If the two so happen to coincide you are one of the lucky winners or one lucky winner. Same thing for a computerized drawing system there is what should seem to be a "random" algorithm for the odds of a chosen game (being as every qp is based on  the play field of a chosen game). This is no secret if there was no algorithm to the "quick pick machine" then we would have.. nothing. No RNG. Every player would have to select numbers. Maybe as all the games should be? Is it safe to say yet that an algorithm or seed has to have a "pattern" to exist? How else would it be random? Numbers shouldn't have patterns? Most of us forget the pattern is what we see with our eyes.. after the fact...  So what exactly is a pattern in a pick 3 or 4 game? repeat digits? again those should be expected.

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

Coin Toss, I'm actually surprised it took so long for you to chime in with having worked in casinos in the past. Our arguments consist with how casinos don't 'pre-test' their roulette wheel, dice, card decks, keeno, or even pre- test the game administrators' "hands" to ensure they're working properly. In terms of anyone having won anything on a test draw, again, that's simply a matter of the verbiage used to describe numbers that hit...official versus pre-test. Every single pre-test is a possible winning combination be it straight, boxed, or a combination of sorts...and somebody has it. In the case of Texas, you can best believe that people have found their numbers in those tests but, lacking in the official draw. With other states that don't post their test results, people cannot see whether or not they won nor compare the tests against their so-called official results. So, in my honest opinion, people have won on test draws but, couldn't get paid because...they were winning numbers thrown out. It took you long enough to step in.

Lucky Loser,

The roulette wheels are checked to make sure they are not biased, the dice are put in micrometers and measured to 1,10,000th of an inch, the cards for card games are checked to make sure they are full decks and haven't been tampered with, etc.....

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

New York, NY
United States
Member #140634
March 23, 2013
2980 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

The odds of the game is a mathematical formula based on the number of balls used in any given game & cannot be altered unless you change the number of balls in the game.  You cannot truly have a random process when you put these man made balls into a man made machine & expect everything to be consider equal.

Correct. Why not? I'm interested.

Even if you use different machines, combinations and patterns do form over a period of time.  The odds of any game is based on the fact that each ball has an equal opportunity of being drawn. In reality, this is not the case.

I would think this does suggest the draws are random if patterns do show in a game where numbered balls are mixed up in a tube and then released in combinations of 3 or 4 digits. What is your ideal of an equal opportunity when it comes to the lottery? Rarely if ever are you going to see 1-2-3-4 then the next draw 5-6-7-8. This would insist no pattern. Repeat digits should be expected.

Even in a Random Number Generator, the computer & software are man made. The results from a RNG will also contain combinations & patterns which tells me it is not truly random.  Even the States know it is not truly random.

Go back to what I was saying their is a difference between a computerized draw machine and a ball machine in how the numbers are generated showing very different patterns. Yes that means the RNG is working off of an algorithm.. a ball machine cannot work off of an algorithm. If the two so happen to coincide you are one of the lucky winners or one lucky winner. Same thing for a computerized drawing system there is what should seem to be a "random" algorithm for the odds of a chosen game (being as every qp is based on  the play field of a chosen game). This is no secret if there was no algorithm to the "quick pick machine" then we would have.. nothing. No RNG. Every player would have to select numbers. Maybe as all the games should be? Is it safe to say yet that an algorithm or seed has to have a "pattern" to exist? How else would it be random? Numbers shouldn't have patterns? Most of us forget the pattern is what we see with our eyes.. after the fact...  So what exactly is a pattern in a pick 3 or 4 game? repeat digits? again those should be expected.

Exactly MoneyMike \$. 'Seed' is a good word to use. The pattern you are searching for or looking for is a random pattern. That's what you're trying to figure out. How to make the pattern random so it matches the game itself. Now you're getting onto or into something important about the game. Well said.

Winning makes me smile.
bel air maryland
United States
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April 24, 2010
4874 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 5:59 pm - IP Logged

Lucky Loser,

The roulette wheels are checked to make sure they are not biased, the dice are put in micrometers and measured to 1,10,000th of an inch, the cards for card games are checked to make sure they are full decks and haven't been tampered with, etc.....

The states that don't publish the pre-test numbers not only deny the players of knowing whether or not if they won in the pre-tests, but it also denies the players a chance to see if they're system or method is working well.  What I mean is this. Most of us only have the official draws to go by to verify our workouts which is one draw to the next. If we knew what the pre-test results were, we would have more opportunities to check the system we're using. Or tweak it to make it better, plus to be able to spot trends, patterns etc. for future draws.

But since we can't, oh well. We just have to do the best we can with what we have.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." Yogi Berra, Hall of Fame baseball player.

The numbers will tell you what numbers to play. Pay attention to the numbers.

Don't just think outside the box, crush it.

San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 6:29 pm - IP Logged
Why are you folks making such a fuss over something you have no control over.
Pre-tests are and will always be a part of the mix, like it or not.
I struggled with the pre-tests years ago, but I eventually decided it was a waste of time.
I know there is a lot of stuff  going on before the official draw but none of it pays a prize.
So, I just block it out.
I realize any of my Pick 3/4 plays could show up in a pre-test, but I just don't think about
it. If I did, I'd be upset, but, there are many other ways to lose.
The most important question in lottery play is - What's Next?
All of the answers are found in the winning integers.
Someone mentioned in a post that the lottery outcomes are on a natural forward path determined by all of the known factors, including the pre-tests.
For what it's worth - I agree.
I once thought that my game history file had to include every official drawing.
Well, again, for what it's worth, I only track the drawing immediately before the
drawing I play.
At present, I play Texas Pick 3 Eve drawings using only history from prior Day drawings.
Texas has 4 drawings per day.
I play the Pick 4 Day drawings using history for the Morning drawings.
If I'm not able to choose my plays for the designated drawing, I just skip it.
There will always be another drawing.
Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1806 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 6:54 pm - IP Logged
Why are you folks making such a fuss over something you have no control over.
Pre-tests are and will always be a part of the mix, like it or not.
I struggled with the pre-tests years ago, but I eventually decided it was a waste of time.
I know there is a lot of stuff  going on before the official draw but none of it pays a prize.
So, I just block it out.
I realize any of my Pick 3/4 plays could show up in a pre-test, but I just don't think about
it. If I did, I'd be upset, but, there are many other ways to lose.
The most important question in lottery play is - What's Next?
All of the answers are found in the winning integers.
Someone mentioned in a post that the lottery outcomes are on a natural forward path determined by all of the known factors, including the pre-tests.
For what it's worth - I agree.
I once thought that my game history file had to include every official drawing.
Well, again, for what it's worth, I only track the drawing immediately before the
drawing I play.
At present, I play Texas Pick 3 Eve drawings using only history from prior Day drawings.
Texas has 4 drawings per day.
I play the Pick 4 Day drawings using history for the Morning drawings.
If I'm not able to choose my plays for the designated drawing, I just skip it.
There will always be another drawing.

So with that being said, all digits do have the same probability besides the fact there are public pre test draws in texas and california?

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

San Angelo, Texas
United States
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January 31, 2003
1394 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 7:10 pm - IP Logged

So with that being said, all digits do have the same probability besides the fact there are public pre test draws in texas and california?

When the balls are placed in the mixing vessel(s), every ball has an equal chance of getting through the escape gates.
However, once the machines are activated, equal probability disappears.
Anyone can learn this via tracking charts that clearly show that there is bias in that some integers arrive more often than others, but that's the way it is, for better or worse.
It's a guessing game from start to finish.
I have game history charts that help me choose the integers that seem to have the best chance of coming out of the gates.
I don't know anything about California.
By the way, the pre-test drawings are not public.
The lottery posts the results about an hour before the last and official drawing.

WA
United States
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January 27, 2012
180 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

This is a very good thread. Many of you are making too much senses for a lot of people here. The algorithms, I believe are being shared by all states that participated in the game. Let's question this: Why does the vast majority of states implement the Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 games? Simply because they work as a profit generator. Taxes on the poor that is.

As for the probability, I do not believe all digits have the same probability. They rotate, they adjust, they compute, with a unique pattern system in which why the lottery contractors are there for. Please read the article on the news page about why Lottery contractors are suing each other because a lost of bidding for a contract.

It goes without saying, a little luck goes along way for lotteries. Some people think they have gotten the probability down and work their numbers, some played the same numbers for many decades and finally show up one day.

Be safe out there...watch for Fall numbers... almost every month, there are at least a set of different triples fall.

-p4

playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1806 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

When the balls are placed in the mixing vessel(s), every ball has an equal chance of getting through the escape gates.
However, once the machines are activated, equal probability disappears.
Anyone can learn this via tracking charts that clearly show that there is bias in that some integers arrive more often than others, but that's the way it is, for better or worse.
It's a guessing game from start to finish.
I have game history charts that help me choose the integers that seem to have the best chance of coming out of the gates.
I don't know anything about California.
By the way, the pre-test drawings are not public.
The lottery posts the results about an hour before the last and official drawing.

I hear ya.. once the machine is activated and the air is on and the numbers start vibrating against eachother its no telling besides the use of past history and the trend of said integers what will come out next.. most of the time you can tell a repeat digit or 2 will come from the most recent draws in my lottery mostly when a 24-way is drawn previously.. probability.. Is it correct to say a 24-way combination is drawn with 4/10 odds then what are the odds a repeat digit will return in the next?

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

Ny
United States
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July 5, 2015
1806 Posts
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 Posted: September 21, 2016, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

This is a very good thread. Many of you are making too much senses for a lot of people here. The algorithms, I believe are being shared by all states that participated in the game. Let's question this: Why does the vast majority of states implement the Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 games? Simply because they work as a profit generator. Taxes on the poor that is.

As for the probability, I do not believe all digits have the same probability. They rotate, they adjust, they compute, with a unique pattern system in which why the lottery contractors are there for. Please read the article on the news page about why Lottery contractors are suing each other because a lost of bidding for a contract.

It goes without saying, a little luck goes along way for lotteries. Some people think they have gotten the probability down and work their numbers, some played the same numbers for many decades and finally show up one day.

Be safe out there...watch for Fall numbers... almost every month, there are at least a set of different triples fall.

-p4

I had a theory when I first started to play that if you play a combination long enough eventually you will hit it straight or box.. what do the people think?

Creativity..

" What's more likely to happen will happen.. "

Million dollar operation

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