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Predicting winning numbers? Fact or fiction?

1679 replies. Last post 21 hours ago by Stat$talker.

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Do you REALLY think it is possible to predict winning numbers?

With everything in me [ 152 ]  [75.62%]
Not a chance in the lower realm [ 49 ]  [24.38%]
Total Valid Votes [ 201 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 14 ]  

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Todd's avatar - Cylon 200.jpg
50
Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
26401 Posts
Online

It has occurred to me, that it's a possibility Lottery Officials are monitoring this site... Maybe Todd and the gang should figure out a way for members to post their Predictions, but have them not visible until after the actual drawings... 

It would definitely show up in the long term results for the better if indeed Officials are scewing the drawings... what does everyone think about that idea?

Manipulating a drawing would be a felony crime, and whoever was involved would be in jail.  Eddie Tipton received 25 years in jail for manipulating drawings.

I think it's a little ridiculous to think that some lottery draw operators are going to risk being sent to jail for decades just to be sure your predictions posted on a lottery website don't win.

 

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

 

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!

    wander73's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

    United States
    Member #153767
    March 24, 2014
    5244 Posts
    Offline

    If you follow certain number patterns right, there is.  However,  how are the lottery commissions going to find out who is who on this site?

     

    After looking at draws per lottery there might be a way and you need to find the correct system on this site.  No one will give theirs,  it's a fact.

      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
      100
      Texas
      United States
      Member #55887
      October 23, 2007
      11836 Posts
      Offline

      It has occurred to me, that it's a possibility Lottery Officials are monitoring this site... Maybe Todd and the gang should figure out a way for members to post their Predictions, but have them not visible until after the actual drawings... 

      It would definitely show up in the long term results for the better if indeed Officials are scewing the drawings... what does everyone think about that idea?

      I repeat what I've said before. Just look at the odds of any particular game, but especially jackpot games. That is all you need to see and know. They don't need to screw the draws. They sell tickets and make money hand over playslips. To the lotteries, damaging the integrity of a game is a death blow. They like when there are winners because that is what helps sell tickets. When South Carolina paid out 3.4 million dollars, sure they lost money on that one draw, but they more than make up for it on all the other draws.

      Just common sense.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

      A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

        Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
        700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
        United States
        Member #200642
        September 1, 2019
        1509 Posts
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        Manipulating a drawing would be a felony crime, and whoever was involved would be in jail.  Eddie Tipton received 25 years in jail for manipulating drawings.

        I think it's a little ridiculous to think that some lottery draw operators are going to risk being sent to jail for decades just to be sure your predictions posted on a lottery website don't win.

        I agree with you Todd,..and there's 1 particular case in Florida, where Lottery Officials were caught in a fraudulent scheme.. but for sure, I'm considering EVERY MEMBER, not just my possible postings... In your opinion Todd , do you think the Lotteries are using filters on customer's pick?... or that the numbers are chosen AFTER all numbers are in?

        ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

        These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

        The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

         to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

        ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!


          United States
          Member #180287
          February 28, 2017
          201 Posts
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          I agree with you Todd,..and there's 1 particular case in Florida, where Lottery Officials were caught in a fraudulent scheme.. but for sure, I'm considering EVERY MEMBER, not just my possible postings... In your opinion Todd , do you think the Lotteries are using filters on customer's pick?... or that the numbers are chosen AFTER all numbers are in?

          If the numbers were drawn based on other peoples picks (from this site or not) then South Carolina would not draw 2-2-2-2.  A RNG does not look at current draws to work and definitely it can't be done with PB and MM.  THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY!  THEY ARE NOT OUT TO GET YOU OR LP PEOPLE!

            Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
            700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
            United States
            Member #200642
            September 1, 2019
            1509 Posts
            Offline

            If the numbers were drawn based on other peoples picks (from this site or not) then South Carolina would not draw 2-2-2-2.  A RNG does not look at current draws to work and definitely it can't be done with PB and MM.  THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY!  THEY ARE NOT OUT TO GET YOU OR LP PEOPLE!

            I see your point.. I'm not familiar with data concerning SC... but when statistical data show a huge abnormal difference in normal Averages, its a sign that something is up...

            ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

            These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

            The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

             to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

            ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!


              United States
              Member #180287
              February 28, 2017
              201 Posts
              Offline

              I see your point.. I'm not familiar with data concerning SC... but when statistical data show a huge abnormal difference in normal Averages, its a sign that something is up...

              Please show your math, because that is what statistics is, math.  It's not highlighted lists of numbers you THINK the results should be or some pattern that shows up for a few games in a row, then disappears.

               

              the science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of numerical facts or data, and that, by use of mathematical theories of probability, imposes order and regularity on aggregates of more or less disparate elements.

                Todd's avatar - Cylon 200.jpg
                50
                Chief Bottle Washer
                New Jersey
                United States
                Member #1
                May 31, 2000
                26401 Posts
                Online

                I see your point.. I'm not familiar with data concerning SC... but when statistical data show a huge abnormal difference in normal Averages, its a sign that something is up...

                Not necessarily.  When you're dealing with statistics, the sample size is extremely important, and I don't think you're looking at a sample size that would properly even out the outliers.

                But I don't want to get lost in the reeds.  No, the lotteries are not filtering out anything, and most certainly in the United States there no state lottery manipulating any draw results.  As I mentioned, that would be an extremely stupid and purposeless crime to commit.

                As Eddie Tipton demonstrated, it's certainly possible in a computerized drawing state to manipulate drawing results.  He did the crime, and if he were not such a bad thief he might have gotten away with it.  But also note what type of drawing he was rigging:  a jackpot game.  That is really the only type of game that "makes sense" for a criminal to rig, since a game with smaller prizes would require the thief to purchase massive quantities of tickets in order to justify the crime.  (Making them easy to catch in that case.)

                If the state in question uses a real ball drawing I do not think you have anything to worry about.  It would be too hard to fool the audit over any extended period of time, and the fact that anyone can witness the actual drawing makes it very difficult to rig.

                There is another type of problem that can happen in a computerized state, and it has nothing to do with malicious intent:  Errors in the programming.  Computerized drawings are just computer programs, and many times over the years lottery personnel have made errors when programming the draw machines, making many combinations impossible to win.  Most of the time it has been players tracking the results who have found the problems, and then the lottery investigates and figures out that someone programmed the machine wrong.

                So if you are looking at a state with a computerized drawing system, be a little suspicious of strange patterns.  If you're in a state with real ball drawings (like South Carolina), it's theoretically possible that something could be wrong (using the same logic that it is theoretically possible for it to snow in Florida in July), but I don't think you have much to worry about.

                 

                Check the State Lottery Report Card
                What grade did your lottery earn?

                 

                Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                  Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                  700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
                  United States
                  Member #200642
                  September 1, 2019
                  1509 Posts
                  Offline

                  Please show your math, because that is what statistics is, math.  It's not highlighted lists of numbers you THINK the results should be or some pattern that shows up for a few games in a row, then disappears.

                   

                  the science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of numerical facts or data, and that, by use of mathematical theories of probability, imposes order and regularity on aggregates of more or less disparate elements.

                  Well, I don't favor any patterns, or the likes... I simply trust what the Math says..it's like flying an Aircraft through inclimate weather.. you simply trust the instrument planel readings...my decisions arent based on what I want it to be, but what Probability Math says it should be..I've attempted to post some pictures of my tickets, but run into resizing the image problems...

                  ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                  These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                  The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                   to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                  ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!


                    United States
                    Member #197343
                    April 9, 2019
                    5791 Posts
                    Offline

                    Manipulating a drawing would be a felony crime, and whoever was involved would be in jail.  Eddie Tipton received 25 years in jail for manipulating drawings.

                    I think it's a little ridiculous to think that some lottery draw operators are going to risk being sent to jail for decades just to be sure your predictions posted on a lottery website don't win.

                    NOT if the whole state lottery organization are together to just pick that number which was bought less and sometimes give a sold out number to win to make sure to fool people

                      Avatar
                      Texas
                      United States
                      Member #86151
                      January 30, 2010
                      1884 Posts
                      Offline

                      I agree with Todd in that it makes no sense to toy around with smaller games if a person is going to rig a win. Not worth it in any way, shape, or form...stupid actually. Like they say, if you're gonna do it, do it big! Then, I also support that it's 100% easier to manipulate a computerized draw process because guess what? It took a human to design the said programming which renders it extremely vulnerable to a likewise savvy programmer. Ball draw processes are subjected to uncontrollable manipulation as a person would need to essentially modify gravitational forces, in my opinion, in order to manipulate each ball they want to drop or suck out. The only other option would be to use a different draw result than what actually happened during that time...which would be very risky with all the cameras. 

                      As another poster said, the lotteries have no benefit whatsoever in rigging the large jackpot games because there's already an over abundance of losers based purely on the odds and matrix of the game(s). My go to example, though, will always be how the Cash Winfall game was exploited where they were able to purchase all/nearly all the possible combinations after figuring out the loophole. This jackpot game went under as a result.

                      Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                      There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                      #lotto-4-a-living

                        Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                        700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
                        United States
                        Member #200642
                        September 1, 2019
                        1509 Posts
                        Offline

                        NOT if the whole state lottery organization are together to just pick that number which was bought less and sometimes give a sold out number to win to make sure to fool people

                        NY10..!!

                        I read where NY has just become a member of the Multi State Lottery... now take note of how less winners will now come from NY, as far as PB & MM winners go...

                        Even though as Todd mentioned, it's a crime to rig lottery drawings, but it has happened before.. and just like like robbing Banks, criminals know it's a crime, has hefty incarceration penalties, but yet still commit it, for even LESS money than the lowest of possible jackpots of PB or MM...So...

                        ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                        These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                        The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                         to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                        ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                          Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                          700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
                          United States
                          Member #200642
                          September 1, 2019
                          1509 Posts
                          Offline

                          Not necessarily.  When you're dealing with statistics, the sample size is extremely important, and I don't think you're looking at a sample size that would properly even out the outliers.

                          But I don't want to get lost in the reeds.  No, the lotteries are not filtering out anything, and most certainly in the United States there no state lottery manipulating any draw results.  As I mentioned, that would be an extremely stupid and purposeless crime to commit.

                          As Eddie Tipton demonstrated, it's certainly possible in a computerized drawing state to manipulate drawing results.  He did the crime, and if he were not such a bad thief he might have gotten away with it.  But also note what type of drawing he was rigging:  a jackpot game.  That is really the only type of game that "makes sense" for a criminal to rig, since a game with smaller prizes would require the thief to purchase massive quantities of tickets in order to justify the crime.  (Making them easy to catch in that case.)

                          If the state in question uses a real ball drawing I do not think you have anything to worry about.  It would be too hard to fool the audit over any extended period of time, and the fact that anyone can witness the actual drawing makes it very difficult to rig.

                          There is another type of problem that can happen in a computerized state, and it has nothing to do with malicious intent:  Errors in the programming.  Computerized drawings are just computer programs, and many times over the years lottery personnel have made errors when programming the draw machines, making many combinations impossible to win.  Most of the time it has been players tracking the results who have found the problems, and then the lottery investigates and figures out that someone programmed the machine wrong.

                          So if you are looking at a state with a computerized drawing system, be a little suspicious of strange patterns.  If you're in a state with real ball drawings (like South Carolina), it's theoretically possible that something could be wrong (using the same logic that it is theoretically possible for it to snow in Florida in July), but I don't think you have much to worry about.

                          Todd, I use "Lotto Pro" software... the sample size suggested by it's programmers is 50 games.. although thats adjustable..I keep it at 50.

                          The normal Averages of MM from drawing to drawing is anywhere from .3-1.2... but when all of a sudden , you see a 2.5 difference from a drawing that you participated in, and someone wins elsewhere.. its enough cause for suspicion..!!

                          I'm referring to the $227 Million won in Texas about 2 wks ago..MM drawing....

                          ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                          These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                          The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                           to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                          ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                            Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                            700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
                            United States
                            Member #200642
                            September 1, 2019
                            1509 Posts
                            Offline

                            I agree with Todd in that it makes no sense to toy around with smaller games if a person is going to rig a win. Not worth it in any way, shape, or form...stupid actually. Like they say, if you're gonna do it, do it big! Then, I also support that it's 100% easier to manipulate a computerized draw process because guess what? It took a human to design the said programming which renders it extremely vulnerable to a likewise savvy programmer. Ball draw processes are subjected to uncontrollable manipulation as a person would need to essentially modify gravitational forces, in my opinion, in order to manipulate each ball they want to drop or suck out. The only other option would be to use a different draw result than what actually happened during that time...which would be very risky with all the cameras. 

                            As another poster said, the lotteries have no benefit whatsoever in rigging the large jackpot games because there's already an over abundance of losers based purely on the odds and matrix of the game(s). My go to example, though, will always be how the Cash Winfall game was exploited where they were able to purchase all/nearly all the possible combinations after figuring out the loophole. This jackpot game went under as a result.

                            Yea I hear you Lucky Loser..

                            So, to be clear, Let me say that I'm not accusing EVERY State's lottery of being rigged.. we all have read or heard the stories of the ones that were caught..

                            But one other "option" you didn't mention is ... Magnetic ink" on the balls..!!! for example... 70 non-magnetic inked balls, and 70 magnetically inked balls..!!

                            So on the the night of the drawing during the 15 min(MM) to 1 hr 10 min (PB) cutoff time before the drawing, their Mainframe computer tells them what combinations weren't played...they choose one of those.. replace the non-magnetic balls with the magnetic ones.. there you have it,... balls blowing around, but, yet still possibly being rigged..IMO..

                            I'm not saying that they ARE doing it that way... I'm pointing out a method by which it's possible..

                            Has anyone other than me noticed the light that comes on at the exit as the balls are drawn?

                            I'm familiar with tv Studios need for lighting.. and most , if not all are very well lit, so?.. why the fancy light in the ball urn... a clever way to explain the wires connected to it..

                            ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                            These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                            The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                             to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                            ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                              Todd's avatar - Cylon 200.jpg
                              50
                              Chief Bottle Washer
                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #1
                              May 31, 2000
                              26401 Posts
                              Online

                              Todd, I use "Lotto Pro" software... the sample size suggested by it's programmers is 50 games.. although thats adjustable..I keep it at 50.

                              The normal Averages of MM from drawing to drawing is anywhere from .3-1.2... but when all of a sudden , you see a 2.5 difference from a drawing that you participated in, and someone wins elsewhere.. its enough cause for suspicion..!!

                              I'm referring to the $227 Million won in Texas about 2 wks ago..MM drawing....

                              If you are looking for errors in a drawing (as opposed to just what numbers are hot/cold), then 50 drawings is way too small for all but the most basic errors.  For example, you could find that the system is not drawing doubles with that kind of sample size.  But you couldn't tell if (for example) a 5 is never drawn when 1 and 2 are in the first two positions.

                              These are just Pick 3 examples, however.  For jackpot games with larger matrix sizes and numbers drawn, you would need a much larger sample size.

                              BTW, "Lotto Pro" is just a software package developed by one programmer not something scientifically designed by a statistician.  So anything mentioned by the developer regarding sample size is more of a gut feeling rather than a hard, cold fact.

                               

                              Check the State Lottery Report Card
                              What grade did your lottery earn?

                               

                              Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                              Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                                 
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