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Predicting winning numbers? Fact or fiction?

834 replies. Last post 8 days ago by Nomada.

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Do you REALLY think it is possible to predict winning numbers?

With everything in me [ 113 ]  [77.40%]
Not a chance in the lower realm [ 33 ]  [22.60%]
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Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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If you are looking for errors in a drawing (as opposed to just what numbers are hot/cold), then 50 drawings is way too small for all but the most basic errors.  For example, you could find that the system is not drawing doubles with that kind of sample size.  But you couldn't tell if (for example) a 5 is never drawn when 1 and 2 are in the first two positions.

These are just Pick 3 examples, however.  For jackpot games with larger matrix sizes and numbers drawn, you would need a much larger sample size.

BTW, "Lotto Pro" is just a software package developed by one programmer not something scientifically designed by a statistician.  So anything mentioned by the developer regarding sample size is more of a gut feeling rather than a hard, cold fact.

. Point well taken..I've pondered learning to write codes..

Although Lotto Pro isn't my only software.. It allows printing out the analysis sheet, but I use several because I've found that no 1 software will tell you everything you need to know.. one may be better at a process than another.

But what I have come to rely on , is that when they all point to the same ball event, they're usually not wrong..

Now,... ball postions and whatnot?.. I'll be honest.. that's something of study that's new to ME..which is why I love LP site..I'm like a Desert dried sponge in a Lake..!!

I've used Bluskov's wheels to arrange the ball postions... Heck, l'm doing good just to have included in my selections what's coming...Wish I didn't have such a hard time posting my pictures tho..

...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

 to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

    Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
    700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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    September 1, 2019
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    If you are looking for errors in a drawing (as opposed to just what numbers are hot/cold), then 50 drawings is way too small for all but the most basic errors.  For example, you could find that the system is not drawing doubles with that kind of sample size.  But you couldn't tell if (for example) a 5 is never drawn when 1 and 2 are in the first two positions.

    These are just Pick 3 examples, however.  For jackpot games with larger matrix sizes and numbers drawn, you would need a much larger sample size.

    BTW, "Lotto Pro" is just a software package developed by one programmer not something scientifically designed by a statistician.  So anything mentioned by the developer regarding sample size is more of a gut feeling rather than a hard, cold fact.

    I'll look into whether LP was designed by Statisticians,... but it has proven to me that it's Statistically correct enough... it's then that I use Probability Math along with it's findings...

    If Lotto Pro doesn't quite measure up to your standards, then what's your suggestion of software to use?... I'm all eyes...

    ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

    These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

    The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

     to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

    ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!


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      I'll look into whether LP was designed by Statisticians,... but it has proven to me that it's Statistically correct enough... it's then that I use Probability Math along with it's findings...

      If Lotto Pro doesn't quite measure up to your standards, then what's your suggestion of software to use?... I'm all eyes...

      Todd is correct about sample size.  Let me tell you what I did a couple years ago.

      First a little background:  Illinois Lotto game is a 1:7.36 overall odds of winning anything from 1$ to 2M$+ jackpot. 6/52 matrix

      Since it is a RNG I figured I will use a random number generator, with multiple seed values and do a "what if I used this seed value for x number of games, what was my overall odds of winning and along with my $ win/loss.  I don't have my results handy but basically having a low sample count (100 or so games) and using a million + different seed values, I came up with some seed values having an overall win of 40+%.  And with these higher overalls it would be profitable.  But when I put in the full available sample size, the best I could do was in the 10% overall range, and most were not profitable. 

       

      Sure smaller sample sizes might look like impressive results, but so is flipping a coin once and predicting future results will all be "heads".


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        Small edit to last post, lotto has a overall 13.5 % chance  of winning 1$+ and with the largest sample size I was in the 18-20% range for the best.  Still better than the posted, but the point is that it dropped from the 40% average and closer to the calculated overall.

          Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
          700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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          Please show your math, because that is what statistics is, math.  It's not highlighted lists of numbers you THINK the results should be or some pattern that shows up for a few games in a row, then disappears.

           

          the science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of numerical facts or data, and that, by use of mathematical theories of probability, imposes order and regularity on aggregates of more or less disparate elements.

                           Mega Millions Draw 9/13/19

                                   6-16-37-59-62 (5)

          Ok.. Here's what Probability Math said for this MM drawing...

          Ball 6... was at a 4.50 Frq (in a 12.5 class) it drew at 13 games past..odds were 1.:1

          Ball 16... was at 3.43 Frq (12.5 Class), RF math said it should draw at 16.5/38 games.. it fell at 16/ 38 games..odds were 1:1.33

          Ball 37...was at 3.84 Frq (12.5 class) RF math said it should draw at 6.08 games..It drew at 6 going to it 7th game.. Odds were 5.25:1

          Ball 59... was at 4.25 Frq (12.5 class) RF said it should draw at 11.20 games.. It drew going to its 11th game..odds 1:3

          Ball 62.. was sitting at 2.46 Frq (8.33 class) RF math said it should draw at 76 games.. It drew at 3/76 games.. Odds were 1:1.17

          MB (5) was sitting at 20. Frq (25 class) RF said it should draw at 9, 71, 76 games.. It drew at all 3 postions.. Odds were 1:1.

          Note: *Frq= Frequency*RF= Relative Frequency

          of course you can check it, just go back to a setting just before the game's date.. at least the ball's position will be exactly where the Math said it should be to appear..!!  All read from a 50 game sample size.!!

          Let's see if this stirs up the Hornets nest..!  LOL

          ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

          These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

          The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

           to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

          ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg
            Texas
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                             Mega Millions Draw 9/13/19

                                     6-16-37-59-62 (5)

            Ok.. Here's what Probability Math said for this MM drawing...

            Ball 6... was at a 4.50 Frq (in a 12.5 class) it drew at 13 games past..odds were 1.:1

            Ball 16... was at 3.43 Frq (12.5 Class), RF math said it should draw at 16.5/38 games.. it fell at 16/ 38 games..odds were 1:1.33

            Ball 37...was at 3.84 Frq (12.5 class) RF math said it should draw at 6.08 games..It drew at 6 going to it 7th game.. Odds were 5.25:1

            Ball 59... was at 4.25 Frq (12.5 class) RF said it should draw at 11.20 games.. It drew going to its 11th game..odds 1:3

            Ball 62.. was sitting at 2.46 Frq (8.33 class) RF math said it should draw at 76 games.. It drew at 3/76 games.. Odds were 1:1.17

            MB (5) was sitting at 20. Frq (25 class) RF said it should draw at 9, 71, 76 games.. It drew at all 3 postions.. Odds were 1:1.

            Note: *Frq= Frequency*RF= Relative Frequency

            of course you can check it, just go back to a setting just before the game's date.. at least the ball's position will be exactly where the Math said it should be to appear..!!  All read from a 50 game sample size.!!

            Let's see if this stirs up the Hornets nest..!  LOL

            In a game that has ball drawn numbers like PB and MM, any number can be drawn at any time. Regardless of what your math shows.

            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

              Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
              700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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              September 1, 2019
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              In a game that has ball drawn numbers like PB and MM, any number can be drawn at any time. Regardless of what your math shows.

              It's not my Math...it's Laws were here waaaay before either of us...and if any of them can appear, then why is it that only the ones that matched the Math's criteria appeared?...I don't argue with a painted sign.. It is what it is...

              ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

              These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

              The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

               to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

              ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
                United States
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                September 1, 2019
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                liked to have been $10,000...

                ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                 to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                  Dallas, Texas
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                  May 2, 2004
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                  Congratulations! You posted your first picture!

                  G

                  The biggest improvement you'll ever make in the odds of winning is buying a lottery ticket. With just one ticket the odds go from IMPOSSIBLE to IMPROBABLE!

                    Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                    700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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                    September 1, 2019
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                    Congratulations! You posted your first picture!

                    G

                    Yea, Thanks garyo1954...!!

                    But it's still huge... the handles at the corners of the picture wouldn't cooperate... but it's better than nothing...I've got others but,.. at that size, I might require the Library of Congress... LOL

                    You see where my 2 numbers on that ticket were dodged by 1 digit (2x).. green underlined?...

                    ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                    These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                    The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                     to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                    ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

                      Raven62's avatar - binary
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                      It has occurred to me, that it's a possibility Lottery Officials are monitoring this site... Maybe Todd and the gang should figure out a way for members to post their Predictions, but have them not visible until after the actual drawings... 

                      It would definitely show up in the long term results for the better if indeed Officials are scewing the drawings... what does everyone think about that idea?

                      Coniurare Doctrina: A belief that some covert but influential organization is responsible for a circumstance or event.

                      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                      Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.

                      Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges: When the republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous.


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                                         Mega Millions Draw 9/13/19

                                                 6-16-37-59-62 (5)

                        Ok.. Here's what Probability Math said for this MM drawing...

                        Ball 6... was at a 4.50 Frq (in a 12.5 class) it drew at 13 games past..odds were 1.:1

                        Ball 16... was at 3.43 Frq (12.5 Class), RF math said it should draw at 16.5/38 games.. it fell at 16/ 38 games..odds were 1:1.33

                        Ball 37...was at 3.84 Frq (12.5 class) RF math said it should draw at 6.08 games..It drew at 6 going to it 7th game.. Odds were 5.25:1

                        Ball 59... was at 4.25 Frq (12.5 class) RF said it should draw at 11.20 games.. It drew going to its 11th game..odds 1:3

                        Ball 62.. was sitting at 2.46 Frq (8.33 class) RF math said it should draw at 76 games.. It drew at 3/76 games.. Odds were 1:1.17

                        MB (5) was sitting at 20. Frq (25 class) RF said it should draw at 9, 71, 76 games.. It drew at all 3 postions.. Odds were 1:1.

                        Note: *Frq= Frequency*RF= Relative Frequency

                        of course you can check it, just go back to a setting just before the game's date.. at least the ball's position will be exactly where the Math said it should be to appear..!!  All read from a 50 game sample size.!!

                        Let's see if this stirs up the Hornets nest..!  LOL

                        Wow, with a small sample size, not all numbers were drawn at least once and some drawn were drawn multiple times.  Let me flip a coin, heads! Heads has a frequency of 100 so all the future draws will be heads too!

                         

                        Let's see if this stirs up the Hornets nest..!  LOL

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                          Norton, Ohio
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                          Yea I hear you Lucky Loser..

                          So, to be clear, Let me say that I'm not accusing EVERY State's lottery of being rigged.. we all have read or heard the stories of the ones that were caught..

                          But one other "option" you didn't mention is ... Magnetic ink" on the balls..!!! for example... 70 non-magnetic inked balls, and 70 magnetically inked balls..!!

                          So on the the night of the drawing during the 15 min(MM) to 1 hr 10 min (PB) cutoff time before the drawing, their Mainframe computer tells them what combinations weren't played...they choose one of those.. replace the non-magnetic balls with the magnetic ones.. there you have it,... balls blowing around, but, yet still possibly being rigged..IMO..

                          I'm not saying that they ARE doing it that way... I'm pointing out a method by which it's possible..

                          Has anyone other than me noticed the light that comes on at the exit as the balls are drawn?

                          I'm familiar with tv Studios need for lighting.. and most , if not all are very well lit, so?.. why the fancy light in the ball urn... a clever way to explain the wires connected to it..

                          The only way I’ve actually thought about how they could be trying to adjust the outcome, is by air pressure. Adjust how much air goes into the drum for the balls to mix. It would be such small amounts of a difference the naked eye couldn’t tell.  It’s not guaranteed that it would create more carrryovers. But you never know. One other thing I’ve noticed is that machine 12 is used far less than the other machines. I wonder why? Machine 9 used the most. This is the powerball drawing I’m talking about.

                            Stat$talker's avatar - animated sphere.gif
                            700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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                            The only way I’ve actually thought about how they could be trying to adjust the outcome, is by air pressure. Adjust how much air goes into the drum for the balls to mix. It would be such small amounts of a difference the naked eye couldn’t tell.  It’s not guaranteed that it would create more carrryovers. But you never know. One other thing I’ve noticed is that machine 12 is used far less than the other machines. I wonder why? Machine 9 used the most. This is the powerball drawing I’m talking about.

                            Interesting.....

                            How is it that you tell them apart?... are they numbered?... I never thought about the air pressure possibility...

                            ...MATH... The final Stochastic frontier...

                            These are the Lottery Voyages of Stat$talker..!!

                            The ongoing Mission,..to seek out the Laws of "Probability Math"...

                             to master its rules to invoke...to Conquer ALL Major Jackpots..!!

                            ...To boldly go,... Where NO Player has gone before...!!

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                              Norton, Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #194182
                              December 3, 2018
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                              Interesting.....

                              How is it that you tell them apart?... are they numbered?... I never thought about the air pressure possibility...

                              The machine and ball sets used are listed on the powerball website. Go to media at bottome of page, then click media information..it’s the middle file that reads test results I believe. Just looked it up, machine 12 hasn’t been used since February.

                                 
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