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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
light on my feet
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Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:24 am - IP Logged

I've already answered my own question, I was just asking you or anyone else who wanted to respond.

If the question is whether QPs are better than SPs, or vice versa, we still have to ask......In what manner?

If the question is whether the whole point is moot because the very fact that 70% of JP winners are from QPs, this only means that since more people play QPs, that's where the majority of the winner will always show. And again, the question posed can't be satisfactoraly answered because the 70 % will overcome any other theory.

In order to have a reliable stat, both Qps, and SPs must have equal chance of winning. Only then.......If the Qps still account for 70% of the JP wins, should a red flag be raised in one's mind.

On the other hand, If SPs show a 70% winning ratio, then one must raise even a bigger red flag, and realize that systems work better.

 

the answer is simple...

(1)  it is totally random,  which means from the start, every method has an equal chance of winning out of the starting gate.

(2) the only reason QP's win a greater percentage (some 70%),  is that represents how many players play QP's,  not because QP's are more "valuable" as a means to an end.     it's purely random

(3) the 30% left over are described as "PP's".   

(4)  (cuz i am still including the #4)........the problem i personally contend against,  is the notion that the "30% crowd" thinks they manipulated their "wins",  and that part isn't true,  because it is equally random.

(5)  the "problem" in this thread,  is getting the "30%" players to admit it's all random,  and entirely unpredictable

(6) which they won't

(7)  no i am not a "shill",  but i didn't stay at a holiday inn express last night

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

    sully16's avatar - sharan
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    Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:26 am - IP Logged

    Does anyone have the raw data for a particular game?

    Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

    For a lead role in a cage?

     

                                                From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

      visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
      light on my feet
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      Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:32 am - IP Logged

      "On the other hand, If SPs show a 70% winning ratio, then one must raise even a bigger red flag, and realize that systems work better."

       

        oh man i had to go back and highlight this gem of truth,  because obviously they can't even "break even"  per se

      if that actually DID happen,   then (and only then) could the "self pickers"  have any leg to stand on.

      imagine that,  a world where claims actually matched statistics in this debate,  by exceeding the percetages via the "win column"

      the glaring spotlight on "human manipulation" of lottery tells us still.........no one can

       

       (as in more income vs outgo)

                  "i am .........."meant to"       

      P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

               until further notice,  it's  france everyday

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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        Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:35 am - IP Logged

        I made up those numbers as a hypothetical Nino.

        I find it hard to believe that 70% of QP's account for exactly 70% of winners and the 30% of PP's account for exactly 30% of winners.

        But if that's the case how can anybody say one method is better than the other?

        rdgrnr

        I would agree with you. I have tried to find the factual sales of both and the best I ever find

        is just what someone else has said.  I was just wondering if you knew for certian or just going

        on what you had heard.  This, If tue would seem a little odd that it would follow so close to the

        average.  I would think that a +/- 3% for either would be more the norm.  I have found that RNG's

        follow the predicted or expected average much closer then the older Ball Droppers.  The New BD's

        however seem to mimic the RNG's.  I would like to see the actual sales data for both so one could

        know for certian.

        RL

        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

          four4me's avatar - gate1
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          Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:36 am - IP Logged

          Does anyone have the raw data for a particular game?

          I'm sure Mega mil and powerball HQ has those statistics.

          How many quicks picks versus personal picks won.

          As well each state has probably got that info. on their other jackpot games and pic 3/4 also.

          Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                         I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:39 am - IP Logged

            I'm sure Mega mil and powerball HQ has those statistics.

            How many quicks picks versus personal picks won.

            As well each state has probably got that info. on their other jackpot games and pic 3/4 also.

            fourme

            One would have to know the ticket sales for both and I don't think that information is made public.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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              Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:41 am - IP Logged

              rdgrnr

              I would agree with you. I have tried to find the factual sales of both and the best I ever find

              is just what someone else has said.  I was just wondering if you knew for certian or just going

              on what you had heard.  This, If tue would seem a little odd that it would follow so close to the

              average.  I would think that a +/- 3% for either would be more the norm.  I have found that RNG's

              follow the predicted or expected average much closer then the older Ball Droppers.  The New BD's

              however seem to mimic the RNG's.  I would like to see the actual sales data for both so one could

              know for certian.

              RL

              Thanks RL.

              Thanks for trying to answer the question instead of telling me I'm asking the wrong question or giving me a line of mumbo-jumbo or just refusing to answer.


                                                           
                                   
                                                       

               

               

               

               

                                                                                                                 

              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke

               

               

                rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:45 am - IP Logged

                rdgrnr

                I would agree with you. I have tried to find the factual sales of both and the best I ever find

                is just what someone else has said.  I was just wondering if you knew for certian or just going

                on what you had heard.  This, If tue would seem a little odd that it would follow so close to the

                average.  I would think that a +/- 3% for either would be more the norm.  I have found that RNG's

                follow the predicted or expected average much closer then the older Ball Droppers.  The New BD's

                however seem to mimic the RNG's.  I would like to see the actual sales data for both so one could

                know for certian.

                RL

                Those are just the figures everybody uses RL.

                I'm not sure where they got them.


                                                             
                                     
                                                         

                 

                 

                 

                 

                                                                                                                   

                "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                            --Edmund Burke

                 

                 

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                  Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:47 am - IP Logged

                  I think that the 30% 70% split is from the winners from each group, but to say that 70% of sales are QP's just

                  from the winning ticket split is making a big jump.  What if the 70% QP's came from 90% of the sales and 30%

                  came from only 10% of sales.   Or 70% of QP's came from 50% of sales and 30% SP's came from 50%.  Without

                  knowing the total sales for each everything else is just guessing.

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:53 am - IP Logged

                    I think that the 30% 70% split is from the winners from each group, but to say that 70% of sales are QP's just

                    from the winning ticket split is making a big jump.  What if the 70% QP's came from 90% of the sales and 30%

                    came from only 10% of sales.   Or 70% of QP's came from 50% of sales and 30% SP's came from 50%.  Without

                    knowing the total sales for each everything else is just guessing.

                    RL

                    OK RL, thanks. I'm sure somebody will show up with the 411 or a link eventually.


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                      Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:54 am - IP Logged

                      Those are just the figures everybody uses RL.

                      I'm not sure where they got them.

                      rdrnr

                      I think this is a very good question and like you I would really like to know.  I can't say one is better than the

                      other without hard proof.  If 30 from 30 and 70 from 70 then it would be an even draw with one no better

                      than the other.  I guess that would make it fair for everyone no matter how they choose to play.

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        sully16's avatar - sharan
                        Ringleader
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                        Posted: July 13, 2010, 1:58 am - IP Logged

                        fourme

                        One would have to know the ticket sales for both and I don't think that information is made public.

                        RL

                        agree, and I believe theres a reason for it.

                        example...I have been tracking a certain game in mich here ..I play it when the pot is over a certain amount.

                        What I see is weird and it doesn't have anything to do with qp or pp..it's the location of the winners.

                        The biggest concentration of people who play are in 2 areas the Detroit metro area and the Bay city Flint.

                        Yet the winners of this game for the last 3 years are coming from little towns most of which I have never heard of, I actually have a map with push pins in it ..

                        I don't know if the winners are QP OR PP .

                        A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WE HAD A RECORD JACKPOT ON THIS GAME AND I TOLD MY HUSBAND WATCH THE WINNER WILL BE FAR AWAY...I WAS RIGHT IT WAS WON BY SOMEONE IN THE UP.

                        I DO NOT HAVE ANY SPECIAL SIGHT SEEING ABILITIES.

                        DO I TRUST THIS GAME ......HELL NO, NOT ANY MORE.

                        I HAVE A DEGREE IN QUALITY CONTROL AND THAT INCLUDES STATISICAL PROCESS CONTROL.

                        I AM IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM THE DING BAT I PRETEND TO BE SOMETIMES.

                        Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                        For a lead role in a cage?

                         

                                                                    From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

                          Avatar
                          CA
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                          Posted: July 13, 2010, 2:03 am - IP Logged

                          So where does this 70% QP and 30% PP stats come from if the data is not made public???

                            rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                            Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                            April 28, 2009
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                            Posted: July 13, 2010, 2:06 am - IP Logged

                            agree, and I believe theres a reason for it.

                            example...I have been tracking a certain game in mich here ..I play it when the pot is over a certain amount.

                            What I see is weird and it doesn't have anything to do with qp or pp..it's the location of the winners.

                            The biggest concentration of people who play are in 2 areas the Detroit metro area and the Bay city Flint.

                            Yet the winners of this game for the last 3 years are coming from little towns most of which I have never heard of, I actually have a map with push pins in it ..

                            I don't know if the winners are QP OR PP .

                            A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WE HAD A RECORD JACKPOT ON THIS GAME AND I TOLD MY HUSBAND WATCH THE WINNER WILL BE FAR AWAY...I WAS RIGHT IT WAS WON BY SOMEONE IN THE UP.

                            I DO NOT HAVE ANY SPECIAL SIGHT SEEING ABILITIES.

                            DO I TRUST THIS GAME ......HELL NO, NOT ANY MORE.

                            I HAVE A DEGREE IN QUALITY CONTROL AND THAT INCLUDES STATISICAL PROCESS CONTROL.

                            I AM IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM THE DING BAT I PRETEND TO BE SOMETIMES.

                            I don't think anybody ever thought you were a dingbat even if you were pretending to be one sully.

                            And I know what a dingbat is. I was married to a few of em.


                                                                         
                                                 
                                                                     

                             

                             

                             

                             

                                                                                                                               

                            "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                        --Edmund Burke

                             

                             

                              sully16's avatar - sharan
                              Ringleader
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                              October 28, 2009
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                              Posted: July 13, 2010, 2:07 am - IP Logged

                              I don't think anybody ever thought you were a dingbat even if you were pretending to be one sully.

                              And I know what a dingbat is. I was married to a few of em.

                              Thank you darlin.Lovies

                              Did you exchange a walk on part in the war ?

                              For a lead role in a cage?

                               

                                                                          From Pink Floyd's " Wish you were here"

                                 
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