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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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Posted: August 15, 2010, 9:14 am - IP Logged

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/orlando-man-wins-lottery-grand-prize-for-7th-857082.html

All that proves is that there are players out there with systems that give them an advantage of picking combinations that are more likely to win than those combinations picked randomly with no concern for the numbers in them or how they are combined.  That doesn't mean every player with a system has that advantage.  Probably when the players with systems that do nothing and players with systems that work are combined as a group, their over all performance are no better than QP crowd, it the players using systems that don't work that hide the ones with systems that do work.  There may be a couple of LP players with systems that work that way but they will probably never participated in this thread because it seems to be about everything other than its title suggests.

the players using systems that don't work that hide the ones with systems that do work. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RJOh, the more I see you post regarding this topic, the better I can see that you understand how things really work around here. Nice post...especially this excerpt. Wink

 

L.L.

    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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    Posted: August 15, 2010, 10:04 am - IP Logged

    When it comes to the small games, Pick 3/4, the single most important thing is repeatability. No money can be made without a system producing frequent hits. This topic can be discussed infinitely but, when it all comes down to the nitty gritty, consistency must be present if any real money is to made. With the JP games, one good hit is all that's needed because so much money is won that there's no need for a system and repeatability. Luck is definitely desired here.

    If you take two people, a QP player and PP player,give them both $50 towards their own style, a good PP should definitely outperform the QP player. Even if there's no hit from either party, the PP player's numbers should reflect more "closeness" to the winning numbers. One has a much better chance of recovering money than the other as well. With QP's, the people are more spread out meaning that the "same person" just doesn't keep hitting with reasonable frequency as the PP's do.

    Person "A" will hit on the North side of town "this week" while doing nothing next week and possibly the week after unless luck is involved with QP's. Person "B", a Personal Picker, should actually hit a couple of times both weeks to be honest. Person "C", a Quick Picker on the South side, may hit the same week as the QP'er from the North side or at the same time the PP'er hit. All the average person cares about here is that they see where someone has hit on a QP...nothing else.

    When you dig a little deeper, you find that the PP'er is the one actually making more progress more frequently.

    L.L.


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      Posted: August 15, 2010, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

      When it comes to the small games, Pick 3/4, the single most important thing is repeatability. No money can be made without a system producing frequent hits. This topic can be discussed infinitely but, when it all comes down to the nitty gritty, consistency must be present if any real money is to made. With the JP games, one good hit is all that's needed because so much money is won that there's no need for a system and repeatability. Luck is definitely desired here.

      If you take two people, a QP player and PP player,give them both $50 towards their own style, a good PP should definitely outperform the QP player. Even if there's no hit from either party, the PP player's numbers should reflect more "closeness" to the winning numbers. One has a much better chance of recovering money than the other as well. With QP's, the people are more spread out meaning that the "same person" just doesn't keep hitting with reasonable frequency as the PP's do.

      Person "A" will hit on the North side of town "this week" while doing nothing next week and possibly the week after unless luck is involved with QP's. Person "B", a Personal Picker, should actually hit a couple of times both weeks to be honest. Person "C", a Quick Picker on the South side, may hit the same week as the QP'er from the North side or at the same time the PP'er hit. All the average person cares about here is that they see where someone has hit on a QP...nothing else.

      When you dig a little deeper, you find that the PP'er is the one actually making more progress more frequently.

      L.L.

      Lucky Loser,

      Your last 2 posts imply you believe it would have been impossible for the FLA man to win 7 times with QPs.  Correct?

      I believe the man's wins are an example of Nicholas Taleb's Black SwansSmiley

      www.FooledbyRandomness.com

      --Jimmy4164

        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
        Harbinger
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        Posted: August 15, 2010, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

        Lucky Loser,

        Your last 2 posts imply you believe it would have been impossible for the FLA man to win 7 times with QPs.  Correct?

        I believe the man's wins are an example of Nicholas Taleb's Black SwansSmiley

        www.FooledbyRandomness.com

        --Jimmy4164

        Are there any cases of 7X + QP same person winners?

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: August 15, 2010, 3:15 pm - IP Logged

          Lucky Loser,

          RE: your post "when it comes to small games", good points but I have yet to see a lotery that pays anything for closeness.

          I don't think the average "dollar and a dream" QP player is in it for "Recovering money", they're in it to make a life changing score. In fact, the m.o. of playing to gdet in, get stuck, and get out is a sign of a runaway gambler.

          The PPer might be concerned with making more progress more frequently, but the QPer is more likely to be concerned with hitting a jackpot, once.

          Has "The Lottery Changed My Life" interviewed any Pick 3/ 4 players? If so I must have missed it.

          A teacher had a class with lots of international students and asked the class to each draw a map of the world. The point she was making, which proved itself true, was that people draw their home countries as the center of the map.

          I think we do that here with games we play most.

          jarasan,

          Since we only kow of one 7X winner and don't know what he played yet your question can't be answered. It will be intersting to find out how heavy he plays.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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            Posted: August 15, 2010, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

            Lucky Loser,

            RE: your post "when it comes to small games", good points but I have yet to see a lotery that pays anything for closeness.

            I don't think the average "dollar and a dream" QP player is in it for "Recovering money", they're in it to make a life changing score. In fact, the m.o. of playing to gdet in, get stuck, and get out is a sign of a runaway gambler.

            The PPer might be concerned with making more progress more frequently, but the QPer is more likely to be concerned with hitting a jackpot, once.

            Has "The Lottery Changed My Life" interviewed any Pick 3/ 4 players? If so I must have missed it.

            A teacher had a class with lots of international students and asked the class to each draw a map of the world. The point she was making, which proved itself true, was that people draw their home countries as the center of the map.

            I think we do that here with games we play most.

            jarasan,

            Since we only kow of one 7X winner and don't know what he played yet your question can't be answered. It will be intersting to find out how heavy he plays.

            Original Post by Coin Toss

            "A teacher had a class with lots of international students and asked the class to each draw a map of the world. The point she was making, which proved itself true, was that people draw their home countries as the center of the map."

            Aw, Coin...you know how little kids are.  The teacher can say draw a picture of mom and dad and your house - they'll make the people taller than the house.  They just don't know perspective.

            Here's my unbiased world map...

            Michigan World

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: August 15, 2010, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

              Great graphic, truecritic!

              At least the arrow wasn't pointing to the U.P.!

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: August 15, 2010, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

                Original Post by Coin Toss
                I don't think the average "dollar and a dream" QP player is in it for "Recovering money", they're in it to make a life changing score.

                I think any player who's hoping to recover his money with out having a life changing score and winning the jackpot is going to be disappointed.  Even the guys spending $10 or more and/or using a system are in it for the same reasons those average "dollar and a dream" QP players.  Without winning the jackpot, any player would lucky to win 20% of his money back.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                  Posted: August 15, 2010, 8:03 pm - IP Logged

                  Lucky Loser,

                  Your last 2 posts imply you believe it would have been impossible for the FLA man to win 7 times with QPs.  Correct?

                  I believe the man's wins are an example of Nicholas Taleb's Black SwansSmiley

                  www.FooledbyRandomness.com

                  --Jimmy4164

                  Well, anything is definitely possible. But, let's remember that we're talking pure odds relative to numbers and patterns. It would require, and I quote, the repeatability of the perfect turn of events for a single person to accomplish such a feat with QP's, okay. Let's be realistic The guy from Florida did, in fact, use the term "method" which implies that he utilized an educated approach via numbers (mathematics) to do what he did.

                  Now, I'm not going to say that there wasn't some luck involved there which is perfectly fine. I'll take being lucky over good in its' correct proportions any day. But, he had to be applying something in terms of approach based on what I've read. Is it possible to hit on a QP several times? An emphatic "YES!!!" is the answer here. But, how long in between those hits in the key. They didn't happen over night.

                  If a person has the time, money, and correct approach to properly "trap" or "handicap" numbers, then consistency will increase. It has no choice because we're dealing with simple numbers. The time in between the hits is what makes all the difference in the world in terms of making money. I'm only speaking about Pick 3/4 here, okay. One big hit on a JP will offset any and all investments one has in any game. But, it's much harder to do.

                  L.L.

                   

                    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                    Posted: August 15, 2010, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                    Well, I'm a "dollar and a dream" player (sometimes $2 - $5). I keep track of what I play, and win, and lose. The reason I keep my play to less than $5 is because the odds are what they are, and the games are hard to hit. But it only takes one ticket. I really believe that one must control costs to playing. CT if you worked in casinos, I'm sure you saw people who kept chasing the big score only to lose everything. I'm chasing the big score, but not at all costs.

                    I pick my own numbers most of the time, but on occasion I will play a QP just to change up some. I think there are ways to reduce the odds a little which is the obvious advantage to picking numbers, but really, it comes down to good old fashioned luck.

                    Something that really opened my eyes this year, is that I took over a pool at work. I almost always pick the numbers, and I usually will play as many of the numbers in the matrix as I can. We play $11 every drawing, and rarely win. In fact, we have spent $693 and won $22. A return of a little over 3%. This is on Texas Lotto, PB, and right now MM. This is why I'm a $1 player. I know...the more tics you buy, the better your chances. I just have other responsibilities besides the lottery.  Last year I had a return of about 19% on my personal playing. I can accept that while chasing the big score.

                    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                      Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                      Posted: August 15, 2010, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                      Lucky Loser,

                      RE: your post "when it comes to small games", good points but I have yet to see a lotery that pays anything for closeness.

                      I don't think the average "dollar and a dream" QP player is in it for "Recovering money", they're in it to make a life changing score. In fact, the m.o. of playing to gdet in, get stuck, and get out is a sign of a runaway gambler.

                      The PPer might be concerned with making more progress more frequently, but the QPer is more likely to be concerned with hitting a jackpot, once.

                      Has "The Lottery Changed My Life" interviewed any Pick 3/ 4 players? If so I must have missed it.

                      A teacher had a class with lots of international students and asked the class to each draw a map of the world. The point she was making, which proved itself true, was that people draw their home countries as the center of the map.

                      I think we do that here with games we play most.

                      jarasan,

                      Since we only kow of one 7X winner and don't know what he played yet your question can't be answered. It will be intersting to find out how heavy he plays.

                      I was only comparing QP's to PP's when I mentioned "closeness". True, it pays nothing at all and means nothing in the larger scheme of things. What you're describing with the "dollar and a dream" is a far a few between accomplishment, 'Toss. It does happen, though. I hope anyone looking for a JP get's it, okay. I honestly mean that, too.

                      In the real world, Pick 4 is where "serious" money is made and does change people's lives. It costs more money to run a proper system but, the profit makes an A** out of Pick 3 money...and it only requires hitting once a week which is very easy to do. If I ever run a few QP's and hit a JP, then fine. If I don't, I can still do really well with Pick 4 and never have a desire to win a JP. One is severely easier to accomplish than the other. Believe me.

                      Repeatability is KING with these games. I do respect your views, though.

                       

                      L.L.

                        jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
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                        Posted: August 15, 2010, 8:35 pm - IP Logged

                        Lucky Loser,

                        RE: your post "when it comes to small games", good points but I have yet to see a lotery that pays anything for closeness.

                        I don't think the average "dollar and a dream" QP player is in it for "Recovering money", they're in it to make a life changing score. In fact, the m.o. of playing to gdet in, get stuck, and get out is a sign of a runaway gambler.

                        The PPer might be concerned with making more progress more frequently, but the QPer is more likely to be concerned with hitting a jackpot, once.

                        Has "The Lottery Changed My Life" interviewed any Pick 3/ 4 players? If so I must have missed it.

                        A teacher had a class with lots of international students and asked the class to each draw a map of the world. The point she was making, which proved itself true, was that people draw their home countries as the center of the map.

                        I think we do that here with games we play most.

                        jarasan,

                        Since we only kow of one 7X winner and don't know what he played yet your question can't be answered. It will be intersting to find out how heavy he plays.

                        I doubt he is selling a system telling you to play Quick Piggies for $40.  Maybe he plays Quick Piggies at a certain time of day.

                        out the gate Give me $40!

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: August 16, 2010, 12:36 am - IP Logged

                          rcbuckeye,

                          Very well said. I think we all learn via the School of Hard Knocks that having most of the numbers doesn't really matter, it's having them lined up together that matters.

                          Lucky Loser,

                          Good for you, great for you doing that with Pick 4. Not to open a can of worms, but that involves taxes and paperwork, no?

                          jarasan,

                          Don't make me tell the joke here in mixed company about the little girl, Tiffany, who named her cute little dog "Porky", and explained why to Father O'Malley as he was walking own the street!

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                            visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
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                            Posted: August 16, 2010, 2:50 am - IP Logged

                            however,  for me, i learned a long time ago there was more to life than chasing material things as a measurement for success. (Well of course you don't  that's  part  of  your beleif system that's how you guys roll but since  I ride in the fast lane  I  prefer chasing after  the GOOD  life  it's more fun and  I DON'T use  it as a measure of success only as a measure of FUN)

                             

                             

                            since you can only buy a nicer casket,  i decided to switch gears and actually do something that made a difference in peoples lives,  and voila,  here i am,  teaching teenagers how to drive.

                            (Well goody,goody for you  seeing as how we have free will too live  life  any way we choose I choose not too make a difference in other peoples lives  other than my own and my kid and I'm cool with that)

                            "but since  I ride in the fast lane  I  prefer chasing after  the GOOD  life "

                            Green laugh

                            "chasing",  being the underlined operative word in that statement

                             

                            "I choose not too make a difference in other peoples lives  other than my own and my kid and I'm cool with that"

                            i guess you deserve a point for honesty that you don't care about anyone other than yourself,  and a HUGE point for at least not throwing your kid under the bus on your way to selfishville,  but take away 3 points for BEING  a selfish human being,  and your in the integrity hole (not that you care)

                             

                            you do realize this "methodology"  of yours won't garner any "admirers"  of your fancy casket at your funeral,  don't you?

                             

                            i do want to publically thank you for your help in giving a face to runaway wishfulthinikingitis

                            you ARE helping people,  you just don't realize it

                                        "i am .........."meant to"       

                            P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                                     until further notice,  it's  france everyday


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                              Posted: August 16, 2010, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

                              "chasing", being the underlined operative word in that statement (Everyone chases  after something in life  and your no different your chasing after something  just in a different way and for different reasons)



                              i guess you deserve a point for honesty that you don't care about anyone other than yourself, and a HUGE point for at least not throwing your kid under the bus on your way to selfishville, but take away 3 points for BEING a selfish human being, and your in the integrity hole (not that you care) (So what?? that's my right under free  will and I wouldn't call it selfishness  because I WILL help my immediate family  if needed and POSSIBLY local people "depending on  the situation or if I feel like  it" I just don't deal with strangers like your  kind does and your RIGHT I don't  care what you think my way of living is just as good as yours as long as I'm happy,honest  and content that's all that matters)

                               

                               

                              you do realize this "methodology" of yours won't garner any "admirers" of your fancy casket at your funeral, don't you? ("WHO CARES" I won't be alive too see who's attending or not will I !!! why do you guys care about such trivial  things?? seriously are you that much of  an attention hog that you would care knowing full well  u won't  be  able too see who's there at your funeral?? "I WOULDN'T" but judging by  your comment too me you DEFINITELY would man your weird)

                               

                                i do want to publically thank you for your help in giving a face to runaway wishfulthinikingitis you ARE helping people, you just don't realize it

                              (Yes I help  people with serious inquiries on this forum unlike you who  has  NEVER given any useful,helpful,logical,informative,worthy advice the entire time  you've been a member)

                                 
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