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Are pre-draws corrupting your lottery strategy ?

Topic closed. 357 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Lucky Loser.

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Kola's avatar - image
Blundering Time Traveler

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December 25, 2005
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Posted: January 6, 2012, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

 Hey Kola:  I wouldn't mind having some a dem 7:00 pm balls, (meatballs i.e.)  and maybe some midnight balls, but dem other balls, 2:00 pm and 4:00 pm - 'lil bit too early for balls to come through the doorway, for me anyways.  LOL (Sorry, I couldn't help the innuendo - it just kept popping out at me - there it goes again ... I just hope nobody reading this just had surgery , they may just pop dem stitches ! LOL

Hello Opti-Mystic,

I tried to make it very clear, thats why I kept the time refrains...Thanks for re-assuring me that what I said was indeed to finicky a topic tackle without more practice...

Just read it slowly next time...

Our 2nd class in Pick 3 Lore was Space-Timing The Next Draw and we found the Lottery LoreKeeper, Tatiana, staring through her telescope, while we covertly giggled about what does Planet X have to do with what my next draw is? The sleuthy sage quietly intoned, "It is known that when the light(information) from such a distant object reaches our eyes, we are seeing the object as it was in the past & not as it appears Now in the present. Isn't this true for all things, especially numbers, that were drawn years, months, weeks or even just a day in the past? To accurately find the next draw, use the Law of Now(Tatiana's Pillar)". We never giggled again.

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
    New Jersey
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    Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:15 pm - IP Logged

    There's no statistically significant reason to believe that pre draws result in skewed statistics - that is results that don't follow a normal distribution.  Unless the intent of the lottery is malicous, such as them wanting to do pre draws and pick the combo with the least winners to be televised.  Otherwise the pretests would actually work to preserve a normal distribution by determining that their are no malufunctions or biases before doing the real draw.  That real draw is a seperate event - and given enough draws the results of the predraws should match the results of the real draws - or at least be very, very close.  If they don't then their is cause for concern.  I've never attempted to run through and do any of those analysis because I really don't think there would be any way to better the odds in a numbers game.  I see the draw happen, and that's a random event.   Random events don't concern themselves with other random events, and patterns in nature have no place being compared to random events, such as the Pick 3.  Besides, in NJ they have a pari-mutual payout and don't have to be concerned with how many people win.  If more people win, the payout is less.

     

    So at least in my state - I don't think that there is any significant need for the state to cheat, and I don't think that they could by just introducing pre draws.  If they selectively picked which predraw was to be the result, then there'd be a lot more cause for concern, in my opinion.

      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
      New Jersey
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      Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

      The odds are always 1 in 1000 for a straight combination, or, if there are some very tiny weight/shape differences - or even physics differences with where each ball was thrown in, etc.  There are some non - random factors but the net result of all of this is that as long as the balls are all fairly weighted, in fair machinery without malfunction, the odds are always 1 in 1000 for any straight.

       

      Don't mistake that for me saying after 1000 draws, we will see all of the straights.  Degrees of certainty do come into play if you want to analyze the odds of certain things (such as patterns - due digits, etc) but still, no analysis can accurately provide a positive expectation in the game EVEN IF THE GAME PAID 1000:1 without figuring out a physical bias in the system.  Short term, you can win.  That's because of variance.  But long term, you can't.  Keep in mind that (and this is without doing any math, I'm just estimating) no state has hit the statistical long run, with number of draws.  They can consistently make money because they sell high volumes of tickets, which means sales hit the long run every day, but as for an individual player, that's not going to be true unless they've played more tickets than I can imagine.

       

       

      I believe that only a physical bias can result in uneven odds - and the predraws should be there for the sole purpose of elimnating potential bias.  However - I also believe they should be displayed, either televised or on the internet - for public scrutiny to prevent selective drawings.


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        Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

        There's no statistically significant reason to believe that pre draws result in skewed statistics - that is results that don't follow a normal distribution.  Unless the intent of the lottery is malicous, such as them wanting to do pre draws and pick the combo with the least winners to be televised.  Otherwise the pretests would actually work to preserve a normal distribution by determining that their are no malufunctions or biases before doing the real draw.  That real draw is a seperate event - and given enough draws the results of the predraws should match the results of the real draws - or at least be very, very close.  If they don't then their is cause for concern.  I've never attempted to run through and do any of those analysis because I really don't think there would be any way to better the odds in a numbers game.  I see the draw happen, and that's a random event.   Random events don't concern themselves with other random events, and patterns in nature have no place being compared to random events, such as the Pick 3.  Besides, in NJ they have a pari-mutual payout and don't have to be concerned with how many people win.  If more people win, the payout is less.

         

        So at least in my state - I don't think that there is any significant need for the state to cheat, and I don't think that they could by just introducing pre draws.  If they selectively picked which predraw was to be the result, then there'd be a lot more cause for concern, in my opinion.

        Boney ?

        Go back and re-read my posts again.

        Im talking about missing data and pre-draws are missing data as ive said countless times before.

        You cannot do an accurate analysis with missing data ..... helll ya cant even balance your check book with missing data, can you ?

        So is this cheating be the lottery by not producing the pre-draws ?

        Well i think it is .... plus it renders any software out there totally useless.

        Plus the para-mutual is a golden parachute so the lottery will never lose any money not that they ever will.

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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          Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

          Apples and Oranges.  If the event is random then no other random event affects it, and the data from those past events cannot more accurately pick the outcome of the next event.  I always wish people who believe they can use some analysis to beat the game good luck - if they can do it and prove it so in the long run - then they just showed that the game is non random.  If you'r missing data for your check book, good luck.  That's not a random event.

           

          And I do agree with you about the pari-mutual drawings, but I also would rather have them assuming that everything's random, because that does allow me to raise my expected return by playing straights that other people would play less often.


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            Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

            The odds are always 1 in 1000 for a straight combination, or, if there are some very tiny weight/shape differences - or even physics differences with where each ball was thrown in, etc.  There are some non - random factors but the net result of all of this is that as long as the balls are all fairly weighted, in fair machinery without malfunction, the odds are always 1 in 1000 for any straight.

             

            Don't mistake that for me saying after 1000 draws, we will see all of the straights.  Degrees of certainty do come into play if you want to analyze the odds of certain things (such as patterns - due digits, etc) but still, no analysis can accurately provide a positive expectation in the game EVEN IF THE GAME PAID 1000:1 without figuring out a physical bias in the system.  Short term, you can win.  That's because of variance.  But long term, you can't.  Keep in mind that (and this is without doing any math, I'm just estimating) no state has hit the statistical long run, with number of draws.  They can consistently make money because they sell high volumes of tickets, which means sales hit the long run every day, but as for an individual player, that's not going to be true unless they've played more tickets than I can imagine.

             

             

            I believe that only a physical bias can result in uneven odds - and the predraws should be there for the sole purpose of elimnating potential bias.  However - I also believe they should be displayed, either televised or on the internet - for public scrutiny to prevent selective drawings.

            No boney your analysis is incorrect.

            That is not how the rules regarding the degrees of certainty work.

            The odds are not 1/1000 for a single straight played combination....this is where people time and time and time again get it wrong ..!!!

            Your odds are 1/1000 if you play 1000 combinations whereby you'd only win 500 dollars in most states and even less in new jersey.

            IF youre only playing one single straight played combination the odds go welllllllllllllllllllllll over a 1000 draws depending on what percentage value you want to achieve in regards to the degree of certainty.

            If this information was available on most state run websites there would be fewer players.... state lotteries make a shyyyyt load of money off of peoples lack of statistical understanding in regard to the lottery

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:48 pm - IP Logged

              Though I have seen you win many more draws that the odds said you "should have" but simply being a standard deviation or two away from your expected results in the short term shouldn't set off any flags.  Now if you were 3 or 4 deviations away in the long run, you may have found something, but the long run is (probably) close to a million draws in pick 3, if you play box.  I haven't done, and will not do the math, to find the actual number of plays by which you should reach very close to the long run expected results - since it'd be pointless.  I know I won't change your opinion - and I wish you good luck.


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                Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                Though I have seen you win many more draws that the odds said you "should have" but simply being a standard deviation or two away from your expected results in the short term shouldn't set off any flags.  Now if you were 3 or 4 deviations away in the long run, you may have found something, but the long run is (probably) close to a million draws in pick 3, if you play box.  I haven't done, and will not do the math, to find the actual number of plays by which you should reach very close to the long run expected results - since it'd be pointless.  I know I won't change your opinion - and I wish you good luck.

                Im not trying to attack you boney....and trust me i want you to win money...however i have to be honest as well.

                Ive tried all those deviations models time and time again and 99% of the time ive come up empty handed...

                as ive said all along in order to do an accurate analysis you need  all the data

                GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALSO

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: January 6, 2012, 5:54 pm - IP Logged

                  No boney your analysis is incorrect.

                  That is not how the rules regarding the degrees of certainty work.

                  The odds are not 1/1000 for a single straight played combination....this is where people time and time and time again get it wrong ..!!!

                  Your odds are 1/1000 if you play 1000 combinations whereby you'd only win 500 dollars in most states and even less in new jersey.

                  IF youre only playing one single straight played combination the odds go welllllllllllllllllllllll over a 1000 draws depending on what percentage value you want to achieve in regards to the degree of certainty.

                  If this information was available on most state run websites there would be fewer players.... state lotteries make a shyyyyt load of money off of peoples lack of statistical understanding in regard to the lottery

                  The odds are a in 1000.  That doesn't mean you'll win every thousand draws.  That means if they shot off a 1 trillion draws, then each combo would have come out so close to to a billion times that you can essentially say that each showed a billion times.  There's no analysis necessary.  If all the balls weigh the same, and are the same shape, and there's no other pattern in the physics that makes the draw bias the 1 in 1000 comes because there are 1000 possibilities, all with the same chance of showing.

                   

                  In reality, each combo would be slightly different due to the small differences in placement, and things like weight, but it'd be so insignficant and untrackable that you can't beat it.  That's the real missing data.

                   

                  It's essentially like a roulette wheel.  If one side is heavier than another, or the slots are worn enough and create biases, then someone could potentially beat the game.  This has been done a couple of times.  In reality every real wheel has these small biases, but very few wheels are bias enough to overcome the 5.26, or 2.63 percent house edge.  Given that information, I don't think you can overcome a 50 percent or 10 percent house edge offered in Pick 3, either.

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                    Posted: January 6, 2012, 6:30 pm - IP Logged

                    Apples and Oranges.  If the event is random then no other random event affects it, and the data from those past events cannot more accurately pick the outcome of the next event.  I always wish people who believe they can use some analysis to beat the game good luck - if they can do it and prove it so in the long run - then they just showed that the game is non random.  If you'r missing data for your check book, good luck.  That's not a random event.

                     

                    And I do agree with you about the pari-mutual drawings, but I also would rather have them assuming that everything's random, because that does allow me to raise my expected return by playing straights that other people would play less often.

                    Well said Boney. You have skills. 

                     " If the event is random then no other random event affects it, and the data from those past events cannot more accurately pick the outcome of the next event.

                     Excellent.  It's all about ODDS.....and in Pick-3 almost everyone in the World knows it's 1 in 1000.   

                      Thanks

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    

                      Tenaj's avatar - michellea
                      Charlotte NC
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                      Posted: January 6, 2012, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

                      SmileyDoes NC have a high amount of pre and post test draws?   At least 9 per day and sometimes more.  They do 4 before and the 5th one is the draw and then they do 4 after last I communicated with them and said that they do more when they think it's needed but the number choosen usually is a repeat or way way in left field.  Sometimes they've done up to 16.  They sent them to me once.

                      My question asked once but never got answered was is that many pre and post tests normal.  How many do your state have?

                      takeemtothebank

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                        Posted: January 6, 2012, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

                        I see what you're saying and it makes sense Stack. Say you have 6 pre-draws before the official drawing

                        and those numbers that are drawn are: 129, 458, 230, 234, 126, 888 and the final, official drawing (after

                        they've determined there are no malfunctions in the machine and everything is 'good to go') number is

                        457. If you knew what the pre-draw records were, wouldn't it be hard to get over the fact that if you played

                        458, 457 was the winner? Especially using systems/tracking/patterns that have been fairly consistent and

                        somewhat reliable? In PA I wish there was a place to find pre-draw info. On the website they will explain the

                        process but they do not show the results..nowhere I found anyway. (maybe that's a good thing though)

                        I can see crow's point also. Where we differ is in that PA has better trackable (predictable?) results than

                        some states I've looked over. The pre-draw info does not become a concern for me unless something

                        totally unfitting of the patterns and cycles of numbers comes into play...the ones where all you can do

                        is scratch your head and think, huh??

                        This could become a fairly complex discussion, there are people who believe that pre-draws screw up

                        systems, are unfair and are just plain cheating. The higher percentage of those that believe that probably

                        have the results available to them. I think I would tend to fit into that higher percentage too if I was able

                        to view the pre-draw data in PA.

                        There will always be 'bouncing ping pong ball theories' where people think there is nothing but totally

                        random involved...then there will always be the systems and numbers crunchers who 'know' it's more than

                        that.

                        I'm one of those....latter types. Big Smile

                        "If you knew what the pre-draw records were, wouldn't it be hard to get over the fact that if you played 458, 457 was the winner?"

                        A while back we had a skeptic named Jimmy that believe it was impossible for anyone to make a profit playing pick-3 games and he ran a program using the PA Evening drawing over the last 33 and 1/2 years. His statistic show how many times the same 3 digit number repeated, skipped one drawing, two drawings, and results showed an average of about once in every 1000 drawings for each. His objective was to show why any pick-3 bet is a bad bet, but nobody plays the same 3 digit number for 33 and 1/2 years so he was telling us what we already knew.

                        Since most systems play is based on previous drawing statistics, it would hurt if the play was 458 and it was drawn during the test and 457 was the winner. If the test results were used with the statistics then the system would be predicting the test which other than bragging rights is useless.

                        "The pre-draw info does not become a concern for me unless something totally unfitting of the patterns and cycles of numbers comes into play...the ones where all you can do is scratch your head and think, huh??"

                        If we go to single digit positions the odds are 1 to 9 of any one digit being drawn, but if we also assume out of the next ten drawings all ten digits in each position will be drawn, we'll be wrong 99.99% of the time. It's probably rare for even one of the positions to have all ten digits drawn in ten consecutive drawings. Looking at 10,000 results you won't find a position with all ten digits being drawn 1000 times either.

                        Your test shows the digits 2 and 1 being drawn twice in the first position. If I believed for whatever reason without seeing the test results that the digit 2 should be drawn, the odds are still 9 to 1. Does being drawn twice in 6 test draws really raise the odds against it being drawn in the actual drawing?

                        They say the test are ran to insure a random drawing and to make sure the machines work, but since we already know each machine has ten different digits on ten ping pong balls, the results are predictable; I've never seen the 11 or 17 ball in any digit position.

                          psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                          Posted: January 6, 2012, 9:56 pm - IP Logged

                          It doesn't make any difference. Even if you think it does there's nothing you can do about it.

                          I Agree! I agree>>>w/u>>>DDH

                          just went circle on this LP site which has not made CENT's

                          4 the LAST>>>>>>>>>>6 MONTH'sssssssssssssssssssssssss!

                          D LP site seems 2 have lost it'ssssssssssWAY ^^^^^^^^!!!!

                          YES<>sorry 2 say D LP is getting LOST by D WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                          BUT.......ONE THING 4 sure....WE CAN'T CONTROL

                          HOW STATES RUN THEIR LOTTERIES'SSSSSSSSSSS!

                          BUT HELP TODD W/D LP PROJECT SITE!!!

                          DON'T LET IT GET >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>boring>>>PukeParty

                          Party

                          Party


                            United States
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                            Posted: January 6, 2012, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

                            I Agree! I agree>>>w/u>>>DDH

                            just went circle on this LP site which has not made CENT's

                            4 the LAST>>>>>>>>>>6 MONTH'sssssssssssssssssssssssss!

                            D LP site seems 2 have lost it'ssssssssssWAY ^^^^^^^^!!!!

                            YES<>sorry 2 say D LP is getting LOST by D WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                            BUT.......ONE THING 4 sure....WE CAN'T CONTROL

                            HOW STATES RUN THEIR LOTTERIES'SSSSSSSSSSS!

                            BUT HELP TODD W/D LP PROJECT SITE!!!

                            DON'T LET IT GET >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>boring>>>PukeParty

                            Party

                            Party

                            ^^^^^ once again typical troll behaviour that proves little to nothing ^^^^^^

                              psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                              Posted: January 6, 2012, 10:45 pm - IP Logged

                              ^^^^^ once again typical troll behaviour that proves little to nothing ^^^^^^

                              Jack-in-the-BoxJester LaughJack-in-the-BoxBig Grin AngelJack-in-the-BoxBig Grin SantaJester LaughBig Grin Santa>>>>>>>>UUUU>>>>>>>>>^^^^^^2222222222222222222222

                                 
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