Hi guys
This I will call part 2 of how to make guesses for a random event. Around 50 people donwloaded the test
file that had the results for the 1000 simulated games of 50 coin tosses. For those who took the time to
look over the results you should have noticed a few interesting bits of information. Below I have inculded
three pics the first of which shows 6 games, three of which method 1 worked better and three where
method 2 performed better. What I would like you to look at in the CT row are the clusters of heads and
tails. Notice that the games where method one performed better there are several clusters or runs of
either heads or talis and the games that method 2 performed best had fewer clusters.
Looking at the above pic it is easy to see why one method performed better than the other while both are
as random as I could make them. If you take the time to look over the file I uploaded you will see this repeats
over and over throughout the list. It is from study of these outcomes we can get a view of what I talked about
in the first part.
In this pic I am using digit 6 from the MM game and what I have done is convert the lower bias search tool into
a string that mimics the coin toss done in the simulation. You should see the clusters of heads and tails or shows
no-shows for digit 6 make very much the same type patterns as the coin toss simulations.
In this third pic I have done the same as above but using the bias search values. Notice again the clusters of heads and
tails or shows, no-shows for digit 6. In order to improve you selections you need to understand that this is how random
works. In a random process hhhhhhhhh is as random as htthhththt and once you can look at the data without making a
pattern from the values you can start to see the important stuff. Knowing when to expect a trend to start or when it is
about to quit will help you make better decisions. If your are looking for a way to predict the next value this is not the place.
What I hope to do here is give you a means to make a good guess without having to poor over tons of data. I will give you
some time to look this over before I move on.
RL