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Are pre-draws corrupting your lottery strategy ?

Topic closed. 357 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Lucky Loser.

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Harbinger
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Posted: January 9, 2012, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

I don't think I explained very well why predraws don't affect a strategy/system for picking the official winning numbers for the next drawing. When someone comes up with a pattern or some other strategy for picking numbers, they are comparing an official winning numbers to the previous official winning numbers. This is exactly what their pattern/strategy is based on. From one set of official numbers to the next, their pattern/strategy applies. It doesn't matter that there are predraws. When it comes to that person's strategy, predraws don't exist.

That is spot on!

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    Posted: January 9, 2012, 10:27 pm - IP Logged

    I don't think I explained very well why predraws don't affect a strategy/system for picking the official winning numbers for the next drawing. When someone comes up with a pattern or some other strategy for picking numbers, they are comparing an official winning numbers to the previous official winning numbers. This is exactly what their pattern/strategy is based on. From one set of official numbers to the next, their pattern/strategy applies. It doesn't matter that there are predraws. When it comes to that person's strategy, predraws don't exist.

    That's just adapting to the environment handed to you. When would you draw the line when it comes to manipulation?

    if we were to use that logic as a template for future adaptations, then the sky is the limit. at that point it wouldn't matter even if it was a computer draw right? it's a free for all,  no accountabilty.

    Accountability gone wild on DVD.

    Furthermore, less hits in the process.


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      Posted: January 9, 2012, 10:30 pm - IP Logged

      At risk of being told I'm asking an idiotic question; don't odd and even pairs have the same number of combos as low and high pairs?

      LHH and LLH have 125 combos each or together 25%. If they are including LHL, HLL, LHL, and HLL, all six represent 75% or 750 numbers. If it's just to play the 250 straight numbers, they're going against 3 to 1 odds to get even money. Why do they need to know the test drawings to determine probability?

      I suppose their idea is to say "LHH/LLH good for all states" hoping nobody notices there are 750 numbers and/or create the illusion it's legal for U.S. residence to open foreign online betting accounts and get $900 to $1 playing any state lottery in the U.S. I can't play penny anti-poker online so I'm no longer buying the "all states" claims. 

      I too don't understand the name calling because nobody has shown the usefulness of publishing the test results before the drawing. To me it's like saying they need them to take the last test result and "Follow TaxiJohn's rule go up or down.  Flip  6=9 `9=6".

      Ok hmmmmm here is an example of what i mean : let say before you , you have the previous pre-draws and in those pre-draws the last number draw was 444,

      now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit ?

      What would you think the odds of 444 repeating ?


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        Posted: January 9, 2012, 10:33 pm - IP Logged

        Crow,

        I really understand your point of view. You call pre-draws "missing data structures". Indulge me for a moment. What if actual draws contain all "missing data structures"? I contend that they do, and they are already imbedded in the actual draws. To use a crude and simple analogy:

        A ping pong ball is strongly thrown down a really long road and travels from Points A to B, and C in 7 hours..

        Point A = a ball begins rolling on clean road at 12:00 PM : Represents an actual lottery draw

        Point B = has a messy oil slick: Represents the 3:00 PM pre-draw

        Point C = Dead end stop: Represents the next actual  7:00 PM draw

         

        Lets begin,

        I see the ball begins at A.

        I don't see the ball pass at B.

        I see it stops at C

        I take a look at the ball at Point C and see the HISTORY of what happend to the ball when I wasn't watching it. There are spots of oil on the ball. Apparently an imprint of what happend to the ball in the PAST at Point B is on the ball. Even though I didn't actually see what happened in the past at B, its markings are now visible at Point C.

        Granted, this is a crude analogy, but its simplicity is at the heart of the missing data issue. Data may not be missing. Just Like we have the knowledge of the car having picked up oil at Point B, because we see it at Point C, the present actual draw may already contain the history of imbedded past draws - actual draws and pre-draws. In essence, the actual draw looks the way it does, because all past draws(actual and pre) have been taken into account, and when the DOORWAY or WINDOW IN TIME is opened at a Particular Time of a drawing, all of the past draw's info, seen and unseen, rolls and pops into the NOW. This means that ALL NUMBERS MODIFY EACH OTHER in varying degrees at all times. So you can possibly work with any actual draws you want, see how they modify each other, and then predict what the next draw will be. One can especially do this, because just as numbers contain imbedded info about the past, they implicitly contain imbedded info about the future. As a matter of fact, one can even take a couple of draws and telescopically project decent guesses as to what will come out 20 days in the future...Of course the closer you get to that date, the numbers will better modify each other and one can microscopically be more exact. But from the little research I've done, its seems that all information is contained in the now. Pardon the mystical pronouncement, but I wouldn't even bring it onto this thread if it didn't have a tangible corollary.

        I explained in a past thread how our systems and they way we look at our results through the biased lens of our talents, education, prejudices, and etc..., favorably and unfavorably contract and expand how numbers show themselves and how we  then interpret what we see. These numbers do their best to give you the best, and are amendable to our machinatons, but we invariably get in the way. So Crow, maybe its all there, its just very hard to see, mainly because we're limited by what we don't know, and we can't imagine what that could be. Good luck to you and...

        Happy Explorations!

        Kola

        Thanks kola, i understand what youre saying and youre correct many things can represent a paradox.

        Best of luck to you

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          Posted: January 9, 2012, 11:14 pm - IP Logged

          Ok hmmmmm here is an example of what i mean : let say before you , you have the previous pre-draws and in those pre-draws the last number draw was 444,

          now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit ?

          What would you think the odds of 444 repeating ?

          great point. lots of unsuspecting people play triples for long periods of times. even if it wasn't that exact 444, the odds itself of another triple, no matter what the number was is rare to begin with. thousands of poor unsuspecting people who are blind to stats are duped on a daily basis. *Reaps revenue up the bahoong hole.

          unfortunately, everyday contemporary drawbacks affecting everyday people because of the lack of disclosure doesn't seem enough to convince some of the the LP members. It's taking an inter-dimensional change here.  now we have diehard lotteryplayers who are being affected on a massive scale. people who play the lottery that have no clue of odds, patterns, trends, possibilities, pair analyzation, groups, or care about any of that. They play one number in and out all year long praying to god they hit just to make even. if that's not cruel, i don't know what is.

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            Posted: January 9, 2012, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

            BTW i forgot to mention. After some time lurking before I joined LP , I've noticed a discomfort amongst the users with computer draws.  Possible tampering with the computer draws that may have allegedly undertaken in some states, as in doctored and all electronic traces removed.

            there was a petition circulating if my memory serves me correctly.

            why the fuss?

            Just go with the flow as some have recommended. No need to for a petition. Despite any possible tampering with codes and seeds, just use the official draws.

            where do we draw the line?   Eek

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              Kentucky
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              Posted: January 10, 2012, 12:03 am - IP Logged

              Ok hmmmmm here is an example of what i mean : let say before you , you have the previous pre-draws and in those pre-draws the last number draw was 444,

              now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit ?

              What would you think the odds of 444 repeating ?

              "What would you think the odds of 444 repeating? "

              999 to 1 which is exactly the same as any other 3 digit number being drawn. You'll find out that in most Pick 3 drawing histories all three digits repeat and in some the average is better than once in 1000 draws. Some numbers hit four or five times in 1000 draw cycle while others don't hit in 5000 drawings. Maybe the tests would show those numbers being drawn and the "hot" number never showing, but in the end of the day, the only number that counts is the one that pays.

              Texas draws 4 times for their tests and any trends would mostly reflect the non-paying test. The actual drawn numbers, "the money numbers" are 20% of that data. To answer your topic question, it would help if you explained exactly how the test data will help you pick the money numbers.

              "now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit?"

              We would first need a test draw history to compare the percentages of repeats in the actual drawing. If the repeat hit rate is less than probability, I'd throw out the 4 test numbers and lower the odds against me to 995 to 1. I understand what your saying, but eliminating just 4 numbers out of 1000 can't help me pick the winning number.

              If 444 was part of system play, I would rather throw away a buck on it than take a chance of Murphy's Law kicking in.

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                Posted: January 10, 2012, 12:10 am - IP Logged

                BTW i forgot to mention. After some time lurking before I joined LP , I've noticed a discomfort amongst the users with computer draws.  Possible tampering with the computer draws that may have allegedly undertaken in some states, as in doctored and all electronic traces removed.

                there was a petition circulating if my memory serves me correctly.

                why the fuss?

                Just go with the flow as some have recommended. No need to for a petition. Despite any possible tampering with codes and seeds, just use the official draws.

                where do we draw the line?   Eek

                "there was a petition circulating if my memory serves me correctly. why the fuss?"

                http://www.lotterypost.com/news/240162?q=Tennessee+Lottery

                That story was from less than a month ago; you're not a very good lurker.

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                  Posted: January 10, 2012, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                  I suspect "unsuspecting people who play triples for long periods of time" don't cry when it comes out in a pre-test. If they are that unsuspecting they likely don't check the pre-tests since they know pre-tests don't pay.

                  People do play favorite numbers all the time. I used to play 128. Knew an old guy who put .50 on 303 straight, every day. No particular reason. It was his favorite number. People do that. They play numbers of the road they travel, their area code, social security number, etc.

                  And somewhere somebody's number comes out in the pre-test everyday.

                  Triples as a system is bad anyway. Those are all high, all low, all even, all odd. General rule when playing triples is to wait 80 to 100 days after one hits before playing again.

                    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                    Posted: January 10, 2012, 3:52 am - IP Logged

                    "What would you think the odds of 444 repeating? "

                    999 to 1 which is exactly the same as any other 3 digit number being drawn. You'll find out that in most Pick 3 drawing histories all three digits repeat and in some the average is better than once in 1000 draws. Some numbers hit four or five times in 1000 draw cycle while others don't hit in 5000 drawings. Maybe the tests would show those numbers being drawn and the "hot" number never showing, but in the end of the day, the only number that counts is the one that pays.

                    Texas draws 4 times for their tests and any trends would mostly reflect the non-paying test. The actual drawn numbers, "the money numbers" are 20% of that data. To answer your topic question, it would help if you explained exactly how the test data will help you pick the money numbers.

                    "now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit?"

                    We would first need a test draw history to compare the percentages of repeats in the actual drawing. If the repeat hit rate is less than probability, I'd throw out the 4 test numbers and lower the odds against me to 995 to 1. I understand what your saying, but eliminating just 4 numbers out of 1000 can't help me pick the winning number.

                    If 444 was part of system play, I would rather throw away a buck on it than take a chance of Murphy's Law kicking in.

                    Stack,

                    I gave it a quick look. If we just count the times the winning numbers come out in the pre-test, box or straight like in the yellow, there were 7 between July 12 and December 27, 2000. (Pre-tests are not available before July that year on the Texas site).  I didn't bother counting the times the winning number came out in the pretest prior like in the blue. Or how many times it came out sometime during that week.

                    The orange and green just shows what happens if you play tic-tac-toe with the pre-tests. Maybe that is a system in itself?

                     

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                      Posted: January 10, 2012, 9:34 am - IP Logged

                      "there was a petition circulating if my memory serves me correctly. why the fuss?"

                      http://www.lotterypost.com/news/240162?q=Tennessee+Lottery

                      That story was from less than a month ago; you're not a very good lurker.

                      ummmmm, i meant Todd's thread which no longer is pinned.

                      you're not a good reader...ha


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                        Posted: January 10, 2012, 9:47 am - IP Logged

                        "What would you think the odds of 444 repeating? "

                        999 to 1 which is exactly the same as any other 3 digit number being drawn. You'll find out that in most Pick 3 drawing histories all three digits repeat and in some the average is better than once in 1000 draws. Some numbers hit four or five times in 1000 draw cycle while others don't hit in 5000 drawings. Maybe the tests would show those numbers being drawn and the "hot" number never showing, but in the end of the day, the only number that counts is the one that pays.

                        Texas draws 4 times for their tests and any trends would mostly reflect the non-paying test. The actual drawn numbers, "the money numbers" are 20% of that data. To answer your topic question, it would help if you explained exactly how the test data will help you pick the money numbers.

                        "now would you play 444 for the live drawing know that it has just hit?"

                        We would first need a test draw history to compare the percentages of repeats in the actual drawing. If the repeat hit rate is less than probability, I'd throw out the 4 test numbers and lower the odds against me to 995 to 1. I understand what your saying, but eliminating just 4 numbers out of 1000 can't help me pick the winning number.

                        If 444 was part of system play, I would rather throw away a buck on it than take a chance of Murphy's Law kicking in.

                         Yes the odds are 1/1000 but only if you play 1000 combinations which would mean you would only win 500 dollars in most states

                        The odds are not 1/1000 for a single straight played combination because there are mathematical rules called degrees of certainty that has to be applied where the odds can  go into the 1000's of draws

                        and youre going to chance playing a combination that has already hit in the pre-draws ?

                        This is the point that ive been trying to make all along is that as long as there are pre-draws your data is being corrupted

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                          Posted: January 10, 2012, 11:06 am - IP Logged

                          ummmmm, i meant Todd's thread which no longer is pinned.

                          you're not a good reader...ha

                          "ummmmm, i meant Todd's thread which no longer is pinned.  you're not a good reader...ha"

                          I can't read your mind so I had no idea what you "meant to say" but responded to what you did say by giving a link to a current news story.

                          "BTW i forgot to mention. After some time lurking before I joined LP , I've noticed a discomfort amongst the users with computer draws.  Possible tampering with the computer draws that may have allegedly undertaken in some states, as in doctored and all electronic traces removed."

                          The "fuss" as you called it was about possible RNG programing errors whether by design or by human error and the news story explains a real programing error. The programing error prevented any digit from repeating making it impossible for 280 Pick 3 numbers to be drawn and 4960 Pick 4 numbers to be drawn.

                          The "fuss" in this topic is about whether or not 4 out 1000 Pick 3 numbers and 4 out of 10,000 Pick 4 numbers can be drawn.

                            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                            Posted: January 10, 2012, 11:16 am - IP Logged

                            The odds are 1 in 1000.  If I flip a coin, the odds are 50/50 (Well technically 49/51, but let's ignore that and call it 50/50).

                             

                            That doesn't mean that if I flip it twice I'll have a heads and a tails, just in the same way that you won't see every number show over 1000 draws.  The chance of you having one heads and one tails is 50%, while there's a 25% chance of either two head OR two tails.

                             

                            The same can be applied to Pick 3, understanding that the odds are 1 in 1000, but also do the math and figure out the odds that any specific number will show within, say, 1000 draws.  Of course that math you be harder because there's countless of ways 1000 pick 3 draws can happen, but it's still an finite amount of results.

                             

                            The odds are always 1 in 1000 if you buy ONE STRAIGHT ticket.  Otherwise it's x/1000 depending on how many straights you have covered (a box counting as 6 straights).

                             

                            If you bought every combination, you have a 1000/1000 or 100% chance of losing half of your money.  Degrees of certainty are not the same as odds.  They are more like long term odds of specific events.  And still, if you wanted to refer to degrees of certainty, the odds for any number over X amount of draws will be better than 1 in 1000.  In fact, for 2 draws, I can say the odds of it showing at least once are....

                             

                            (2/1000)-(1/1000000) or 1,999/1,000,000.

                             

                            Of course, it just gets more and more complicated, and so it's not really something I'd want to do.

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                              Posted: January 10, 2012, 11:32 am - IP Logged

                              Stack,

                              I gave it a quick look. If we just count the times the winning numbers come out in the pre-test, box or straight like in the yellow, there were 7 between July 12 and December 27, 2000. (Pre-tests are not available before July that year on the Texas site).  I didn't bother counting the times the winning number came out in the pretest prior like in the blue. Or how many times it came out sometime during that week.

                              The orange and green just shows what happens if you play tic-tac-toe with the pre-tests. Maybe that is a system in itself?

                               

                              "I gave it a quick look. If we just count the times the winning numbers come out in the pre-test, box or straight like in the yellow, there were 7 between July 12 and December 27, 2000."

                              I'm assuming you mean 7 straight or box hits which is roughly 3.33% of the drawings. If you checked the statistics of how many times one of the past 4 money numbers repeated in the fifth drawing, the percentages are probably similar as Ricky was trying to point out. The one thing you did prove is the test drawings don't prevent numbers from being drawn like the Tennessee Lottery's RNG did.

                                 
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